A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

The offense is already okay.  We are 9th in OPS.  We might be 4th with Mead and Anthony.

You do know we will never have 100% health.

Mead & Anthony return- maybe 1-2 other top batters go out.

With pitching, it's even more probable.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Realistic thread final word on Ceddanne's catch that was in his glove the entire time he rolled over:

I went ballistic because there was no doubt in my mind about two things: 1. the New York employees who live and work in NY at the replay review would not overturn the call; and 2. in this scoreless game, both baserunners would immediately score.

 

 

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Would the offense be okay with Anthony, Story and Mead?

1. L Anthony DH

2. R Mead 2B

3. L Abreu RF

4. R Contreras 1B

5. S Rutschman C

6. R Rafaela 2B

7. R Durbin 3B

8. L Duran LF/ R White or Jones LF

9. R Story SS/ S Sogard SS

  

If Jones hits the lefties the way he has been and Duran gives us his 2025 OBP + 2026 power and playing decent defense when hes out there , and we get 2025 Anthony - more than okay. Significantly more than okay.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

If Jones hits the lefties the way he has been and Duran gives us his 2025 OBP + 2026 power and playing decent defense when hes out there , and we get 2025 Anthony - more than okay. Significantly more than okay.

To many ifs, especially the Duran ones.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Mead & Anthony return- maybe 1-2 other top batters go out.

That happens to every team.  But Mead and Anthony should be substantially better than those they are replacing.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

That happens to every team.  But Mead and Anthony should be substantially better than those they are replacing.

That's assuming Abreu and Willson don't get hurt and "replaced."

Or Ceddanne & Durbin, who would hurt the O and D.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

That's assuming Abreu and Willson don't get hurt and "replaced."

Or Ceddanne & Durbin, who would hurt the O and D.

I'm thinking in terms of what we have today, and what our projections are going forward.  We just lost Contreras and I'd still bet on an above-average OPS in September,

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm thinking in terms of what we have today, and what our projections are going forward.  We just lost Contreras and I'd still bet on an above-average OPS in September,

Mead is not "today" and probably is done for the year.

I was talking 2027. With a healthy Mead and Anthony and other top bats not out, we'll be fine, but counting on 100% health for the best bats is not a sound strategy.

I'd like to see us add another bat, but our bench does look pretty solid. It's not going to be super urgent- like replacing Gray, Early and Sandoval's innings.

Healthy 9

1. Anthony DH

2. Mead 2B

3. Abreu RF

4. Contreras 1B

5. Rutschman C

6. Rafaela CF

7. Durbin 3B

8. Duran LF

9. Arias/Story SS

_________________________

Bench/AAA depth:

C: Wong, Gasper, Jo Garcia

1B: Romy, Gasper, Casas

2B: Story, Sogard, Seigler, Monasterio, Rodgers

SS: Story/Arias, Sogard, Monasterio, Cheng

3B: Monasterio, Sogard, Seigler, Eaton, Romero

LF: (Anthony) Jones

CF: (Duran) White

RF: Campbell, Eaton

DH: Campbell, Romy/Casas, Brannon

 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I was talking 2027.

I'd bet on a top-10 offense and wouldn't think twice about it.  I'd bet on a .700+ from the top 8 hitters, and Story has a decent shot at a .700 as well.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd bet on a top-10 offense and wouldn't think twice about it.  I'd bet on a .700+ from the top 8 hitters, and Story has a decent shot at a .700 as well.

I've been raving about the outlook of a healthy 2027 offense.

What are we disagreeing on?

[moonslav59]

This might blow some minds:

AUGUST top Sox OPS:

1.671 Gasper (was demoted and returned)

1.556 Anthony (fresh off the IL)

1.389 Rogers (DFA'd)

1.284 Jones (only earned 19 ABs)

1.250 Story (Yes, the one from Story Land)

.971 Abreu (Okay, someone we'd expect might be top 6.)

.892 Yoshida (on IL)

.801 Sogard (like the 5th string 2B/SS)

.789 Duran (like the guy many wanted DFA'd)

.772 Seigler (like the guy just demoted)

.726 Durbin (like the guy batting .5 something in May.)

No Willson, Rafaela, Rut or Mono in top 10!

[notin]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Mead is not "today" and probably is done for the year.

I was talking 2027. With a healthy Mead and Anthony and other top bats not out, we'll be fine, but counting on 100% health for the best bats is not a sound strategy.

I'd like to see us add another bat, but our bench does look pretty solid. It's not going to be super urgent- like replacing Gray, Early and Sandoval's innings.

Healthy 9

1. Anthony DH

2. Mead 2B

3. Abreu RF

4. Contreras 1B

5. Rutschman C

6. Rafaela CF

7. Durbin 3B

8. Duran LF

9. Arias/Story SS

_________________________

Bench/AAA depth:

C: Wong, Gasper, Jo Garcia

1B: Romy, Gasper, Casas

2B: Story, Sogard, Seigler, Monasterio, Rodgers

SS: Story/Arias, Sogard, Monasterio, Cheng

3B: Monasterio, Sogard, Seigler, Eaton, Romero

LF: (Anthony) Jones

CF: (Duran) White

RF: Campbell, Eaton

DH: Campbell, Romy/Casas, Brannon

 

I see Arias to SS, Story to 2b, Mead to DH, Anthony to LF, Duran to … another team.

And then ppl complaining that Breslow didn’t get the DH they wanted and his job should be on the line…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

I see Arias to SS, Story to 2b, Mead to DH, Anthony to LF, Duran to … another team.

And then ppl complaining that Breslow didn’t get the DH they wanted and his job should be on the line…

I already praised Breslow for admitting his offseason mistake and making the effort this summer to add Mead and Rutschman. We're still sure either is the answer, but they have been good before, so why not again?

And we already have Mickey Gasper, with the 3rd highest all-time OPS in a calendar month behind Ted Williams and Barry Bonds. Before the season, who left that piece in their still-standing Jenga tower?

[drewski6]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've been raving about the outlook of a healthy 2027 offense.

What are we disagreeing on?

the likelihood of injuries.

[drewski6]

11 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd bet on a top-10 offense and wouldn't think twice about it.  I'd bet on a .700+ from the top 8 hitters, and Story has a decent shot at a .700 as well.

offense looks good for 2027.  YOu account for injuries by having 8 good hitters with at least 6 of them who are good defenders at multiple positions, so you have hitting depth and can plug in serviceable dudes but the replcement comes from other starters.

For example lets say next year abreu is hitting 3rd and then gets hurt and we bring up cambell.  Thats decent positional depth, but I think if you want to fancy yourself a deep team, this doesnt necessarily just mean that you can plug in a serviceable fielder but also that you have someone hitting 5th, 6th who is as good as most teams have hitting 3rd.  So you have both fielding coverage and lineup spot coverage.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I already praised Breslow for admitting his offseason mistake and making the effort this summer to add Mead and Rutschman. We're still sure either is the answer, but they have been good before, so why not again?

And we already have Mickey Gasper, with the 3rd highest all-time OPS in a calendar month behind Ted Williams and Barry Bonds. Before the season, who left that piece in their still-standing Jenga tower?

Before the offseason? Two days ago people will still doubting Mickey.  Hes Mickey Mantle not MIckey Mouse!

[drewski6]

yes you can use that.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Before the offseason? Two days ago people will still doubting Mickey.  Hes Mickey Mantle not MIckey Mouse!

Gasper is having a good stretch, but his place on the 2027 Red Sox might not be as secure as you think it is.(Although as he has an option for 2027, he’s probably not getting waived, either.). His career OPS+ of 89 has him more in line with Mickey Klutts (85) than Mickey Tettleton (122)..

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've been raving about the outlook of a healthy 2027 offense.

What are we disagreeing on?

I think it started with this: Would the offense be okay with Anthony, Story and Mead?    My point being that we are already 'okay', and then some.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I already praised Breslow for admitting his offseason mistake

I'm not sure what the mistake is.  We are 8th in OPS, and 4th in ERA.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Before the offseason? Two days ago people will still doubting Mickey.  Hes Mickey Mantle not MIckey Mouse!

No -- Gasper is not a rat, and in no way do I ever want to associate a Red Sox with a Yankee (especially ex-Red Sox traitors who sign to play with the enemy).

I prefer to compare him to Mickey Cochrane, who Mantle was named after. Cochrane is the Hall of Fame catcher (Gasper's favorite position) mostly forgotten as an all-time great.

Mickey C.'s career is worth checking out on bb-ref: .320 lifetime batting average in an offensive era, but also the leader of five World Series teams. He was good enough to be named AL Most Valuable Player when he was 25 for the A's and 31 for the Tigers... and received MVP votes in 10 of 11 seasons.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

offense looks good for 2027.  YOu account for injuries by having 8 good hitters with at least 6 of them who are good defenders at multiple positions, so you have hitting depth and can plug in serviceable dudes but the replcement comes from other starters.

For example lets say next year abreu is hitting 3rd and then gets hurt and we bring up cambell.  Thats decent positional depth, but I think if you want to fancy yourself a deep team, this doesnt necessarily just mean that you can plug in a serviceable fielder but also that you have someone hitting 5th, 6th who is as good as most teams have hitting 3rd.  So you have both fielding coverage and lineup spot coverage.

This is the primary reason I agreed with you on keeping Duran.  He's more than just a backup, he's a starter.  I know some disagree, but Duran has been pretty valuable as Anthony's replacement in LF, even with his down year.  That's a heck of a lot more valuable than having JJ or even Yoshida.  Guys like KC (as of today) are more for the 2-week IL visits.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm not sure what the mistake is.  We are 8th in OPS, and 4th in ERA.

Come on, most of us talked about needing one more power bat, and so did Brez last winter, and there's no doubt the longball was missing when the Sox were last in the majors in HRs through June. 

And does any Sox fan -- who doesn't care about or even know what a budget is -- think the line-up is better off without Devers, who hit his 30th yesterday, or Bregman, who has 23 after his second 3-homer game in less than 3 weeks.

Home runs win the postseason, especially in pitchers' duels, which are more common when the best teams face off. The Sox have the streaky duo of Will and Wilyer, and maybe Duran or Ceddanne (I'm still stunned when any opposing hurler throws him a strike).

Could Anthony or Story flex their muscles, too? I bet most of us have more faith in them contributing right now than the two new guys Brez added before the deadline...

[mvp 78]

On 8/31/2026 at 8:40 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Realistic thread final word on Ceddanne's catch that was in his glove the entire time he rolled over:

I went ballistic because there was no doubt in my mind about two things: 1. the New York employees who live and work in NY at the replay review would not overturn the call; and 2. in this scoreless game, both baserunners would immediately score.

1. Not a catch. 

2. Will Flemming should chill out. 

3. The Yankees are babies about what Will Flemming said. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Come on, most of us talked about needing one more power bat, and so did Brez last winter, and there's no doubt the longball was missing when the Sox were last in the majors in HRs through June. 

And does any Sox fan -- who doesn't care about or even know what a budget is -- think the line-up is better off without Devers, who hit his 30th yesterday, or Bregman, who has 23 after his second 3-homer game in less than 3 weeks.

Home runs win the postseason, especially in pitchers' duels, which are more common when the best teams face off. The Sox have the streaky duo of Will and Wilyer, and maybe Duran or Ceddanne (I'm still stunned when any opposing hurler throws him a strike).

Could Anthony or Story flex their muscles, too? I bet most of us have more faith in them contributing right now than the two new guys Brez added before the deadline...

Alonso at DH

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

1. Not a catch. 

Determined by New York employees and an umpire who on Friday missed five of six straight challenges when he was standing right behind home plate -- not 150 feet away.

[mvp 78]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Determined by New York employees and an umpire who on Friday missed five of six straight challenges when he was standing right behind home plate -- not 150 feet away.

The ump got lucky with his call. I think the angle from the YES (?) feed shows that it hit the ground. I don't think one call should have ruined the whole start. Suarez needed to be able to move on from it rather than throwing another 30ish pitches. 

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And does any Sox fan -- who doesn't care about or even know what a budget is -- think the line-up is better off without Devers

1-The idea that the budget doesn't matter is a non-starter.  It does.

2-Does anyone not think that this team is far better with our current defense than it was last year?

[drewski6]

24 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

1-The idea that the budget doesn't matter is a non-starter.  It does.

2-Does anyone not think that this team is far better with our current defense than it was last year?

The budget matters but not in the way that we frequently assume.

All the they will spend up to this amount = junk. They stay conscious of the expenditure, but again everything is fluid.  They may say we want to stay under this line, but then throw it out if they see opportunity.

Some fans want a finite amount becuase then it becomes a fun exercise to try to build a team under a max and it causes us to pick and choose and it facilitates good debate.  End of the day, its a forum exercise.

The plans are loose.  Because so much can change and so much does.  THe budgets exist, but they are also loose.  They spent more this offseason than most of us thought.  And those of us who assumed they would chase max efficiency were wrong and those of us who assumed they would be cheap (other end of hte spectrum) were also wrong.

Income vs Expenditure is considered but when it comes to FA decisions and taking on salary in trades, its always case by case.  They didnt ever have a hard stop and were like "if we can get a team to take on 4m of masa, we can spend 6m on a RP and not 2"

[drewski6]

There are loose plans but the real plan is to stay flexible and nimble.