A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We need to pull to within two games of the NYY when we face them in NY.  Not getting ahead of myself, but that would pull us into a tie, with us having the tie-breaker.

I never felt the Yanks were all that good, and the Rays have played way over their heads.

The Judge injury hurts, but we have a near .500 team on the IL, including our 2024 and 2025 aces (Houck & Crochet), our best young player (Anthony) and the guy we traded Early for (Mead,) plus maybe the best set-up man in MLB (Whitlock). There are more.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I never felt the Yanks were all that good, and the Rays have played way over their heads.

The Judge injury hurts, but we have a near .500 team on the IL, including our 2024 and 2025 aces (Houck & Crochet), our best young player (Anthony) and the guy we traded Early for (Mead,) plus maybe the best set-up man in MLB (Whitlock). There are more.

They've also missed some GS with Cole, Fried, and Rodon.  The NYY are legit and won't go down quietly.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

They've also missed some GS with Cole, Fried, and Rodon.  The NYY are legit and won't go down quietly.

I'm not saying they suck, but only that I don't think they are as good as many think they are. They had a recent 5 game win streak, despite the many injuries, but other teams have many injuries, too, and as I pointed out, we could field a decent team with just players on the IL plus our AAA/AA rosters.

While Cole, Rodon and Fried (Max is still on the IL) have been hurt, they have started 41 games. I'm not arguing Houck, Crawford and Oviedo are as good as they are, but Crochet is.

We've gotten 6 (mostly rotten) GS'd from those 4. Plus, Sandoval missed 16 and Suarez a couple.

Nobody on our everyday roster can compare to losing Judge, but that is a danger for a team to rely on one guy that much. Other Yankees have missed some time, too, but we lost Anthony and our HR, RBI and SB leader (Story) for almost the whole year. We traded one of our best pitchers for Mead, who got hurt on day one.

The Yanks are 37-33 since June 1st. Despite tat 5 game win streak I mentioned, they are just 5-4 in their last 9. They were 7-6 in their previous 13 games.

Run Differential since June 1st:

+103 BOS

+24 TBR

-3 NYY

If Fried and Judge can come back strong, of course they will be a tough team to beat, but why assume they do, but not feel the same about Crochhet, Anthony, Story and maybe Houck? (Not that you are doing so.)

[moonslav59]

To me, the Rays seem like the hardest team to figure out, with the Tigers being a close second. (Well, maybe the Sox are first.)

For some reason, the Rays almost always outperform Pythagorean, and this year is no different. They are 7 games over Pyth. They are 6 up on the Sox. Do the math!

Couple this with the Sox being 5 games under Pyth, and we could be looking at the Sox being 6 games up on the Rays, and tied with the Yanks for first in the ALE.

I'm not crying over us "deserving" to be in first place, but we do seem like a better team than our record, while the Rays seem to win with smoke and mirrors.

Here is a comp of the remaining schedules after this weekend series:

BOS: 4 at NYY, 3 at TBR, 3 CHC, 3 CLE, 3 at MIA, 3 at TEX,4 at BAL, 3 SEA, 3 KCR, 3 LAA- This is by no means an easy schedule, but 9 v SEA, KCR and LAA are games we should be faves in 8 or 9 of them. 12 v CLE, TEX, BAL & MIA are not easy. The 7 games against TBR and NYY hold the key, and all are on the road. However, the Sox have been very good away, and the Yanks are not so great at home. (The Rays are.) The 3 ames vs the Cubs will be a challenge

NYY: 4 TBR, 4 BOS, 3 HOU, 3 at SDP, 3 at AZ, 3 at MN, 3 BAL, 3 at LAA, 3 NYM, 3 COL - The Yanks get to play the 8 games vs BOS and TRB at home and have 3 seemingly very easy series. 15 v others is hard to project. To me, the Yanks are harder to catch than the Rays- see below...

TBR: 4 at NYY, 3 BOS, 3 HOU, 3 SDP, 3 at ATL, 3 at PHI, 3 at DET, 3 at TEX, 3 NYM & 6 v A's- Tey have the 9 games vs the A's and Mets, but WOW! Look at the rest- all difficult to extremely 25 difficult games. The Jays, today makes 26.

It won't be easy, but I like our chances, this year. Fangraphs WS odds:

9.0 NYY

8.4 TBR

7.0 BOS

4.3 SEA, 3.0 OU, 2.2 CLE, 1.9 CWS

___________________

NL

26 LAD

12 MIL

8 PHI

6 ATL

5 CC

[JoeBrady]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

but why assume they do, but not feel the same about Crochhet, Anthony, Story and maybe Houck?

I assume so because I am always prepared for a fight.  And I feel very good about Anthony both returning and contributing.  I don't feel as strongly about Crochet returning, but if he does, he and Bello could make a heck of a bulk reliever tandem. 

Story, TBH, I'm not sure I want back.  I might be able to justify it mathematically, but the 2026 Red Sox belong to the kids.  It's their team, and I'd make it a point to say it's their team.  And if I was Story, I'd make it a point to say I was happily the #26.

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I assume so because I am always prepared for a fight.  And I feel very good about Anthony both returning and contributing.  I don't feel as strongly about Crochet returning, but if he does, he and Bello could make a heck of a bulk reliever tandem. 

Story, TBH, I'm not sure I want back.  I might be able to justify it mathematically, but the 2026 Red Sox belong to the kids.  It's their team, and I'd make it a point to say it's their team.  And if I was Story, I'd make it a point to say I was happily the #26.

I feel the same way, but it's hard to totally write off Story, who had a very nice ending to 2025 while leading the team in HRs (25), RBI (96) and SBs (31 SB & 1 CS)

June 7, 2025 to the end of the season (96 games and 404 PAs)

.294 18 70 (.839 OPS) 

Projected to 144 games (1.5 x) .294 27 105 (45 SB)

I'm not saying we should expect or project a repeat, but doesn't he kinda deserve a chance to earn his way back into a FT role?

(I can't believe I'm defending Story.)

 

[moonslav59]

Runs Scored since June 25th:

277 BOS

270 CHC

256 DET, 252 CWS

247 PIT, AZ, SDP

246 TBR, COL

29th NYY at 171

OPS:

.780 BOS

.777 CHC

5th TBR .761

29th NYY .629 (Imagine if Fred was a Yankee fan)

________________________

Runs allowed

172 BOS

173 DET

189 NYY

8th TBR 206

Kapow!

[moonslav59]

Best Sox winning % since 2018:

(Last 8 seasons)

.568 2021 (Bloom)

.549 2025 (Brez)

.546 2026 (Brez)

.519 2019 (DD)

.500 2024 (Brez)

.481 2022 & 2023 (Bloom & Bloom)

.400 2020 (Bloom)

Can we continue the continued improved record since 2023?

.481> .500> .549> ___

[moonslav59]

What a comeback by the Phillies.

[drewski6]

I honestly believe were we have reached the point where it doesnt matter as much how good a team is or who someone "really" is.  I use to believe that the better teams will find a way to win  in the playoffs, but I no longer believe that and now believe that a so/so team that gets in with momentum is more of a threat than a good team who limps in ice-cold.  A good team who is ice cold in may/june is dangerous because of all the runway they have to find their talent level.  But right now, its not as much about how good anyone is.  Its about how they are positioned and how hot they are.  WE are well positioned and hot, so yes, dangerous.  IN a good way.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I honestly believe were we have reached the point where it doesnt matter as much how good a team is or who someone "really" is.  I use to believe that the better teams will find a way to win  in the playoffs, but I no longer believe that and now believe that a so/so team that gets in with momentum is more of a threat than a good team who limps in ice-cold.  A good team who is ice cold in may/june is dangerous because of all the runway they have to find their talent level.  But right now, its not as much about how good anyone is.  Its about how they are positioned and how hot they are.  WE are well positioned and hot, so yes, dangerous.  IN a good way.

The playoffs are more than 5 weeks away. 

Being hot now is not the same as then, but I agree: we look and feel dangerous.

[Maxbialystock]

On 8/23/2026 at 12:34 AM, moonslav59 said:

I never felt the Yanks were all that good, and the Rays have played way over their heads.

The Judge injury hurts, but we have a near .500 team on the IL, including our 2024 and 2025 aces (Houck & Crochet), our best young player (Anthony) and the guy we traded Early for (Mead,) plus maybe the best set-up man in MLB (Whitlock). There are more.

Love what you said about the Sox, but not so sure the Yankees and Rays are over-rated.  

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Love what you said about the Sox, but not so sure the Yankees and Rays are over-rated.  

Well, the Yanks when healthy are a force, but then we'd be better too by the same standard.

The Rays have consistently done better than their run diff says they should. They know a secret that we hoped Bloom could tell us.

[notin]

9 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Love what you said about the Sox, but not so sure the Yankees and Rays are over-rated.  

Kind of weird to say the Rays are playing over their heads while comparing them to this Sox team being lead by guys named Sogard, Monasterio, Durbin, Seigler, etc…

[notin]

23 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I honestly believe were we have reached the point where it doesnt matter as much how good a team is or who someone "really" is.  I use to believe that the better teams will find a way to win  in the playoffs, but I no longer believe that and now believe that a so/so team that gets in with momentum is more of a threat than a good team who limps in ice-cold.  A good team who is ice cold in may/june is dangerous because of all the runway they have to find their talent level.  But right now, it’s not as much about how good anyone is.  It’s about how they are positioned and how hot they are.  WE are well positioned and hot, so yes, dangerous.  IN a good way.

And any player capable of making the majors is extremely talented.  As in they’re better at baseball than most people are at anything…

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Kind of weird to say the Rays are playing over their heads while comparing them to this Sox team being lead by guys named Sogard, Monasterio, Durbin, Seigler, etc…

They have a decent offense and a good rotation. They didn't go through a tremendous slump like the Sox did at the start of the season. Are the Sox the better team right now? Maybe? The Rays were able to build a substantial division lead because they've just played well all year. 

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

They have a decent offense and a good rotation. They didn't go through a tremendous slump like the Sox did at the start of the season. Are the Sox the better team right now? Maybe? The Rays were able to build a substantial division lead because they've just played well all year. 

And they’re MVP candidate is going to get more votes than Boston’s MVP candidate…

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

And they’re MVP candidate is going to get more votes than Boston’s MVP candidate…

Uhhh, 0.1 dWAR... Not a great showing in the HR derby... Their team that nobody goes to watch is bilking the state for $2B in funding... 

#notmyJunior 

[mvp 78]

It's funny that we just kinda stopped hearing about how trading David Hamilton was a mistake for some reason...

 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, notin said:

And they’re MVP candidate is going to get more votes than Boston’s MVP candidate…

Are you sure about that?  And who is ours?  You can make a case for Willson or Cedanne. Even Gray.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It's funny that we just kinda stopped hearing about how trading David Hamilton was a mistake for some reason...

 

Rank these 2b options: Siegler, Monasterio, Story, Arias, Sogard, Meade, Hamilton, Durbin

Assume all our healthy and no other position is available to play....meaning no cop outs like well i play this one at 3b and i like this one better as a ss, and this one can be my DH.

Hamilton is last, no?

[drewski6]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Rank these 2b options: Siegler, Monasterio, Story, Arias, Sogard, Meade, Hamilton, Durbin

Assume all our healthy and no other position is available to play....meaning no cop outs like well i play this one at 3b and i like this one better as a ss, and this one can be my DH.

Hamilton is last, no?

Durbin, Meade, Arias, Sogard, Monasterio, Story, Siegler, Hamilton

Monasterio/Story is a near tie and that could easily flip.  Story could also catch Sogard, but Sogard just feels like a ballplayer to me.  Again , for this exercise you canoot say story at DH or story at SS.  YOu have to rank these players as second baseman only in order of you would want at 2b under the assumption that all positions are accounted for.  YOur #2 and even #3 can be assumed to be bench players.

[drewski6]

we upgraded hamilton 6x over is my point.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Kind of weird to say the Rays are playing over their heads while comparing them to this Sox team being lead by guys named Sogard, Monasterio, Durbin, Seigler, etc…

I prefer the word 'overachieving'.

[Bellhorn04]

We have often talked about losing winnable games.

This Sox team has lately been winning quite a few losable games.  

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We have often talked about losing winnable games.

This Sox team has lately been winning quite a few losable games.  

Once they bring IKF and Story back, the turns will have tabled. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Once they bring IKF and Story back, the turns will have tabled. 

As most of you already know on September 1st MLB teams are allowed 2 extra players. No reason not to wait until then to bring up Story and IKF.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 minute ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

As most of you already know on September 1st MLB teams are allowed 2 extra players. No reason not to wait until then to bring up Story and IKF.

Sadly, IMHO, Eli will be going when Anthony returns.

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

As most of you already know on September 1st MLB teams are allowed 2 extra players. No reason not to wait until then to bring up Story and IKF.

They can sit firmly on the bench. Story's rally killing k's aren't needed. 

[Maxbialystock]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Kind of weird to say the Rays are playing over their heads while comparing them to this Sox team being lead by guys named Sogard, Monasterio, Durbin, Seigler, etc…

Well said!  I might add that this Sox team seems different from all Sox teams I remember going back to 1949.  Of course, I rarely watched them until satellite TV came along circa 2020, so my opinion is suspect. 

Despite his foolish error last night--turning a single into a leadoff double--I think Duran adds something as well as great speed, a good arm, and a bunch of rbi's, runs scored, dingers, triples, and SB's.  His K's are absolutely horrendous and his OPS is a paltry .632.  

In fact, the returns of Story, Anthony, Mead, and Kiner-Falefa are going to complicate things because of what you said.  

Whitlock and Crochet, on the other hand, can only help.