A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We need to pull to within two games of the NYY when we face them in NY.  Not getting ahead of myself, but that would pull us into a tie, with us having the tie-breaker.

I never felt the Yanks were all that good, and the Rays have played way over their heads.

The Judge injury hurts, but we have a near .500 team on the IL, including our 2024 and 2025 aces (Houck & Crochet), our best young player (Anthony) and the guy we traded Early for (Mead,) plus maybe the best set-up man in MLB (Whitlock). There are more.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I never felt the Yanks were all that good, and the Rays have played way over their heads.

The Judge injury hurts, but we have a near .500 team on the IL, including our 2024 and 2025 aces (Houck & Crochet), our best young player (Anthony) and the guy we traded Early for (Mead,) plus maybe the best set-up man in MLB (Whitlock). There are more.

They've also missed some GS with Cole, Fried, and Rodon.  The NYY are legit and won't go down quietly.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

They've also missed some GS with Cole, Fried, and Rodon.  The NYY are legit and won't go down quietly.

I'm not saying they suck, but only that I don't think they are as good as many think they are. They had a recent 5 game win streak, despite the many injuries, but other teams have many injuries, too, and as I pointed out, we could field a decent team with just players on the IL plus our AAA/AA rosters.

While Cole, Rodon and Fried (Max is still on the IL) have been hurt, they have started 41 games. I'm not arguing Houck, Crawford and Oviedo are as good as they are, but Crochet is.

We've gotten 6 (mostly rotten) GS'd from those 4. Plus, Sandoval missed 16 and Suarez a couple.

Nobody on our everyday roster can compare to losing Judge, but that is a danger for a team to rely on one guy that much. Other Yankees have missed some time, too, but we lost Anthony and our HR, RBI and SB leader (Story) for almost the whole year. We traded one of our best pitchers for Mead, who got hurt on day one.

The Yanks are 37-33 since June 1st. Despite tat 5 game win streak I mentioned, they are just 5-4 in their last 9. They were 7-6 in their previous 13 games.

Run Differential since June 1st:

+103 BOS

+24 TBR

-3 NYY

If Fried and Judge can come back strong, of course they will be a tough team to beat, but why assume they do, but not feel the same about Crochhet, Anthony, Story and maybe Houck? (Not that you are doing so.)

[moonslav59]

To me, the Rays seem like the hardest team to figure out, with the Tigers being a close second. (Well, maybe the Sox are first.)

For some reason, the Rays almost always outperform Pythagorean, and this year is no different. They are 7 games over Pyth. They are 6 up on the Sox. Do the math!

Couple this with the Sox being 5 games under Pyth, and we could be looking at the Sox being 6 games up on the Rays, and tied with the Yanks for first in the ALE.

I'm not crying over us "deserving" to be in first place, but we do seem like a better team than our record, while the Rays seem to win with smoke and mirrors.

Here is a comp of the remaining schedules after this weekend series:

BOS: 4 at NYY, 3 at TBR, 3 CHC, 3 CLE, 3 at MIA, 3 at TEX,4 at BAL, 3 SEA, 3 KCR, 3 LAA- This is by no means an easy schedule, but 9 v SEA, KCR and LAA are games we should be faves in 8 or 9 of them. 12 v CLE, TEX, BAL & MIA are not easy. The 7 games against TBR and NYY hold the key, and all are on the road. However, the Sox have been very good away, and the Yanks are not so great at home. (The Rays are.) The 3 ames vs the Cubs will be a challenge

NYY: 4 TBR, 4 BOS, 3 HOU, 3 at SDP, 3 at AZ, 3 at MN, 3 BAL, 3 at LAA, 3 NYM, 3 COL - The Yanks get to play the 8 games vs BOS and TRB at home and have 3 seemingly very easy series. 15 v others is hard to project. To me, the Yanks are harder to catch than the Rays- see below...

TBR: 4 at NYY, 3 BOS, 3 HOU, 3 SDP, 3 at ATL, 3 at PHI, 3 at DET, 3 at TEX, 3 NYM & 6 v A's- Tey have the 9 games vs the A's and Mets, but WOW! Look at the rest- all difficult to extremely 25 difficult games. The Jays, today makes 26.

It won't be easy, but I like our chances, this year. Fangraphs WS odds:

9.0 NYY

8.4 TBR

7.0 BOS

4.3 SEA, 3.0 OU, 2.2 CLE, 1.9 CWS

___________________

NL

26 LAD

12 MIL

8 PHI

6 ATL

5 CC

[JoeBrady]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

but why assume they do, but not feel the same about Crochhet, Anthony, Story and maybe Houck?

I assume so because I am always prepared for a fight.  And I feel very good about Anthony both returning and contributing.  I don't feel as strongly about Crochet returning, but if he does, he and Bello could make a heck of a bulk reliever tandem. 

Story, TBH, I'm not sure I want back.  I might be able to justify it mathematically, but the 2026 Red Sox belong to the kids.  It's their team, and I'd make it a point to say it's their team.  And if I was Story, I'd make it a point to say I was happily the #26.

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I assume so because I am always prepared for a fight.  And I feel very good about Anthony both returning and contributing.  I don't feel as strongly about Crochet returning, but if he does, he and Bello could make a heck of a bulk reliever tandem. 

Story, TBH, I'm not sure I want back.  I might be able to justify it mathematically, but the 2026 Red Sox belong to the kids.  It's their team, and I'd make it a point to say it's their team.  And if I was Story, I'd make it a point to say I was happily the #26.

I feel the same way, but it's hard to totally write off Story, who had a very nice ending to 2025 while leading the team in HRs (25), RBI (96) and SBs (31 SB & 1 CS)

June 7, 2025 to the end of the season (96 games and 404 PAs)

.294 18 70 (.839 OPS) 

Projected to 144 games (1.5 x) .294 27 105 (45 SB)

I'm not saying we should expect or project a repeat, but doesn't he kinda deserve a chance to earn his way back into a FT role?

(I can't believe I'm defending Story.)

 

[moonslav59]

Runs Scored since June 25th:

277 BOS

270 CHC

256 DET, 252 CWS

247 PIT, AZ, SDP

246 TBR, COL

29th NYY at 171

OPS:

.780 BOS

.777 CHC

5th TBR .761

29th NYY .629 (Imagine if Fred was a Yankee fan)

________________________

Runs allowed

172 BOS

173 DET

189 NYY

8th TBR 206

Kapow!

[moonslav59]

Best Sox winning % since 2018:

(Last 8 seasons)

.568 2021 (Bloom)

.549 2025 (Brez)

.546 2026 (Brez)

.519 2019 (DD)

.500 2024 (Brez)

.481 2022 & 2023 (Bloom & Bloom)

.400 2020 (Bloom)

Can we continue the continued improved record since 2023?

.481> .500> .549> ___

[moonslav59]

What a comeback by the Phillies.