A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[drewski6]

How sure are we that Monasterio cant play LF?

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

These are good points, but the fact that somebody who plays on both sides of the ball has a higher WAR than someone who does not does not disprove my submission that for non CF, SS - the bat is more important than the glove.  I use to think catchers too, but I kind of feel like changes have cut down on the value of a good defensive catcher as framing isnt as important as it use to be and catchers arent really calling pitches anymore.  I still see a lot of value in being the pitchers caddy in a way and controlling the running game.  But I think Catcher has fallen to third in terms of most important position defensively and the gap between C and the top two (SS, CF) has widened. 

Catchers may not "call pitches much or at all, anymore, and the Challenge system has taken away some of the "pitch framing" values catchers had or didnt have, but how they handle a staff is still very important, IMO. A pitcher's comfort zone is hard to quantify, but still has enormous value with several pitchers.

I do agree that their defensive value has fallen some, but I think they are close to CF and 2B. I'd go....

1. SS

(Big gap)

2T. C and CF

4. 2B (close to CF and C)

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

This is kind of encouraging when you think about R Anthony coming back and Monasterio likely getting moved to 2b at some point.  Some of our ugly numbers above are getting reinforced.

You mean reinforcements, right?

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

How sure are we that Monasterio cant play LF?

Our current LF has a .671 OPS over his last 40 games with a slightly low .277 BABIP.  And a current month OPS of .789 with a BABIP of .286.  4 HRs and a 3/1 SB/CS in 64 ABs.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

These are good points, but the fact that somebody who plays on both sides of the ball has a higher WAR than someone who does not does not disprove my submission that for non CF, SS - the bat is more important than the glove.  I use to think catchers too, but I kind of feel like changes have cut down on the value of a good defensive catcher as framing isnt as important as it use to be and catchers arent really calling pitches anymore.  I still see a lot of value in being the pitchers caddy in a way and controlling the running game.  But I think Catcher has fallen to third in terms of most important position defensively and the gap between C and the top two (SS, CF) has widened. 

Catchers still run the defense, and are in on every pitch in the game. No other  defender supporting the man on the mound comes close:

Shortstops average about 4 fielding chances per game. Centerfielders get about 3 max. Catchers average 8 to 11 chances (internet told me).

Catchers also handle over 100 pitches per game... but if there's a strikeout pitcher, the shortstop touches the ball more when it's thrown around-the-horn... initiated by the catcher.

[mvp 78]

7 hours ago, drewski6 said:

How sure are we that Monasterio cant play LF?

4 innings total in the OF professionally.

[Maxbialystock]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Catchers still run the defense, and are in on every pitch in the game. No other  defender supporting the man on the mound comes close:

Shortstops average about 4 fielding chances per game. Centerfielders get about 3 max. Catchers average 8 to 11 chances (internet told me).

Catchers also handle over 100 pitches per game... but if there's a strikeout pitcher, the shortstop touches the ball more when it's thrown around-the-horn... initiated by the catcher.

Completely agree.  So do the Sox who have preferred good hitting CF's and SS's over great fielding CF's and SS's.  As long as he keeps his OPS around .750 Monasterio remains the SS.  Rafaela has the the 6th best WAR, 5.4, in MLB because he can hit and field.  Right after him at 5.3 is Abreu who does the same--hit and field.  Durbin's 3.5 WAR ranks him 36th in MLB because he too can hit (OPS .727) and field.  Bregman and his long-term $35M/season with the Cubs also plays 3b and has a WAR of 3.8.  

Heck, the Sox even like nonfielders.  They won three WS with Ortiz as DH and one with JD Martinez as DH.  

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Our current LF has a .671 OPS over his last 40 games with a slightly low .277 BABIP.  And a current month OPS of .789 with a BABIP of .286.  4 HRs and a 3/1 SB/CS in 64 ABs.

I've been one of the most critical posters on Duran, but he has done better recently.

I did not realize he was doing that well, but more surprisingly....

Monasterio .662 this month. (.882 last 40 games)

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Completely agree.  So do the Sox who have preferred good hitting CF's and SS's over great fielding CF's and SS's.  

Not so sure about CF...

Most PAs in CF last 10 years:

1872 JBJ (.733 OPS) More D

1345 Rafaela (.736) More D

1110 Duran (.756) O as been spotty

737 Kike (.653) was a tremendous defensive CF'er for BOS.

fangraps O and D

-13/3+35 JBJ

6/+35 Rafaela

21/0 Duran

-17/+11

Top 4: 

-4 Offense

+81 Defense

_______________

No argument on SS

Xman +123/+19

Story -5/+8

Total:

+118 Offense

+27 Defense

 

[moonslav59]

Some interesting FWAR comps:

3.4 BLowe- 3.3 Bregman-3.3 Meidroth-3.2 Paredes

3.9 Contreras- 3.7 Alonso-2.8 Schwarber-2.9 Murakami

4.0 Rafaela-3.2 Abreu-0.8 Braden Montgomery-0.7 E White

3.3 Bregman-2.4 Durbin-2.1 KMarte-1.7 Bichette

2.4 Rutschman- 0.2 Wong- -0.2 Narvaez

2.4 Durbin- 1.7 Devers

1.6 Bogey-2.1 Neto-1.1 IKF- -0.1 Mayer

0.6 DHam- 0.4 Grissom-0.2 Seigler- 0,1 Monasterio

3.3 Bregman- 3.4 Suarez

3.4 Suarez vs any FA SP'er except Cease at 4.8

2.6 Gray- 2.4 Harrison

2.6 Gray- 2.6 Dustin May

2.6 Dustin May- 0.8 Dustin May 2025

2.4 Harrison- 2.4 Durbin

1.9 Drohan-1.9 Bennett

3.3 Tolle-3.3 Skubal-3,2 Wheeler

 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I've been one of the most critical posters on Duran, but he has done better recently.

I did not realize he was doing that well, but more surprisingly....

Monasterio .662 this month. (.882 last 40 games)

Around here, every RS player is about a 5-game streak away from demands for an arrest, or demands for an extension.  For one poster, I think his attention span is about two ABs before he makes a decision.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

2.6 Gray- 2.6 Dustin May

As I always said, the May trade wasn't a bad trade; it just didn't work out.  That happens sometimes.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

No argument on SS

Xman +123/+19

Just my amateur opinion, but Money reminds me of X.  Nothing special for sure, but the .978 fielding % counts for something.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Around here, every RS player is about a 5-game streak away from demands for an arrest, or demands for an extension.  For one poster, I think his attention span is about two ABs before he makes a decision.

So true, but it's the long sample size that worries me most on Duran.

.721 since 8/31/24 (1432 PAs)

.641 since 8/19/25 (650 PAs)

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Just my amateur opinion, but Money reminds me of X.  Nothing special for sure, but the .978 fielding % counts for something.

He was a statue that made all the plays hit right into his glove.

LOL

[JoeBrady]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So true, but it's the long sample size that worries me most on Duran.

.721 since 8/31/24 (1432 PAs)

.641 since 8/19/25 (650 PAs)

Not that he batting well, but his BABIP has something to do with his lowered numbers.  Maybe .262?  His earlier numbers might be overrated by the .340 BABIP he had thru 2025.

[JoeBrady]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He was a statue that made all the plays hit right into his glove.

LOL

Or, what about the numbers?

Name	Inn	Ch	E	Fld%	RF/9
Andruw Monasterio	393	178	4	0.978	3.98
Trevor Story (60-day IL)	340.1	143	6	0.958	3.62
Marcelo Mayer	179	62	2	0.968	3.02
Tsung-Che Cheng (40-man)	116	42	0	1.000	3.26
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (60-day IL)	82	28	0	1.000	3.07

His range/9 is well ahead of Story, and way ahead of everyone else.  And the FP is very good.  How do we know he lacks range?

[vegasbob]

34 games to go. 17 at Fenway. 17 away.

This was a big win tonight to establish position at 10 over .500. still a mind bender since June 24

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Not that he batting well, but his BABIP has something to do with his lowered numbers.  Maybe .262?  His earlier numbers might be overrated by the .340 BABIP he had thru 2025.

I can't believe a 1400 PA bad sample is bad luck.

BAbip is also driven by hard hit rates, and his are down a lot.

He's not hitting the ball as hard as he was when he was a good to very good batter. Maybe some bad luck could have gotten him to 700 over the last 650 ot .745 over 1400. It's still a major drop off and a significant reason our offense has had long stretches of issues. 

Another factor is this: 1200 PAs from 2025-2026

696 batting first (.306 BA/.720 OPS) BTW .309 BAbip. 

157 PAs up 3rd (3rd most on team) (.821 OPS is nice)

91 PAs up 5th (4th most) .436 OPS

23 PAs up 2nd and 4th, so 957 of 1200 PAs batting 1-5 with that OPS. That's not his fault they batted him there, but it and he hurt the team.

[moonslav59]

If Pythagorean ran things...

81-48 MIL

79-49 LAD (not counting tonight's gm)

76-53 ATL & NYY

75-53 BOS 

74-54 CHC (Not counting tonight's game)

68-60 TBR

[moonslav59]

34 games to go. Wow! That's all. That's only about 20%.

The playoffs look pretty close to a sure thing, but as we saw not long ago, the standings can shift in less than 34 games.

The Rays went 33-12 around the same time we went looney tunes, so we barely gained ground on them. While there is no way I'm expecting us to repeat what we did over our historical stretch, I'm still thinking the Rays have a bad stretch in them. I think they have been playing over their heads. Pythagorean agrees and has them 8 wins over expectations. Lo and behold, they are 7 up on us.

BTW, Pythagorean as the Yanks and the Sox tied at 75-53.

Here is what gives me hop on catching the Rays:

1. Their last 10 games are: 3 v BOS, 4 at NYY and 3 at PHI!

2. While they do have 6 games vs the A's and 3 vs the Mets remaining, their other 15 games look very difficult: 4 at TEX, 3 at DET and 3 v HOU & SDP, plus these next two at the O's, who are playing better.

3. We hear talk of how bad our offense is, just imagine what Fred would be doing if we had these OPS guys in our top 9 players by PAs:

.698 Simpson (4th in PAs)

.638 Mullins (5th- look what Fred says about Ceddane's O, and who is 150 points better.)

.605 Walls (6th)

.694 Palacios (7thh)

.677 Fortes (8th)

.641 Williamson (9th and on IL)

That's 6 of 9 batters under .698 and 5 under .694. A third of their batters are under .641.

4. While having 4 starters over 90 IP and an ERA under 3.65, Jax is on the IL. Their pen has been pretty solid with these OPSA vs teir most used RP'ers:

.537 Kevin Kelly (215 PAs against)

.621 Ian Seymour (203)

.476 Bryan Baker (193)

.744 Cole Sulser (181)

.737 G Cleavinger (160)

.717 Casey Legumina (155)

.786 Jesse Scoltens (149)

.556 Cam Booser (114)

Not many household names, but the same could be said about our pen.

Can we see this happen?

24-10 BOS

20-14 NYY

16-18 TBR

3 way tie for ALE.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

15 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Or, what about the numbers?

Name	Inn	Ch	E	Fld%	RF/9
Andruw Monasterio	393	178	4	0.978	3.98
Trevor Story (60-day IL)	340.1	143	6	0.958	3.62
Marcelo Mayer	179	62	2	0.968	3.02
Tsung-Che Cheng (40-man)	116	42	0	1.000	3.26
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (60-day IL)	82	28	0	1.000	3.07

His range/9 is well ahead of Story, and way ahead of everyone else.  And the FP is very good.  How do we know he lacks range?

I was talking about X.

Monasterio as looked better to me than is numbers indicate, but I'd be a hypocrite, if I used my observations for him alone. 

I'm not sure Money is better than Story at SS defense, so I'd probably be okay with Story at  SS and Money at 2B (platooned?) but I kinda like Sogard and Seagler better than Story.

[Maxbialystock]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Not so sure about CF...

Most PAs in CF last 10 years:

1872 JBJ (.733 OPS) More D

1345 Rafaela (.736) More D

1110 Duran (.756) O as been spotty

737 Kike (.653) was a tremendous defensive CF'er for BOS.

fangraps O and D

-13/3+35 JBJ

6/+35 Rafaela

21/0 Duran

-17/+11

Top 4: 

-4 Offense

+81 Defense

_______________

No argument on SS

Xman +123/+19

Story -5/+8

Total:

+118 Offense

+27 Defense

 

Love the numbers, as always.

I was thinking of Ellsbury, who left after the 2013 season and because the Yankees gave him a huge and somewhat disastrous contract.  

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Love the numbers, as always.

I was thinking of Ellsbury, who left after the 2013 season and because the Yankees gave him a huge and somewhat disastrous contract.  

I assumed you were talking about recent management.

While Jacoby was more about offense than defense, that was largely driven by the 4 year stretch from 2011-2014. He was pretty close to 50-50 on O and D the other years:

O/D Years

17.3/13.9 '07-'10 (w BOS)

77.4/19.5 '11-'14 (3 w BOS and 1 w NYY)

-6.7/-1.1 '15-'17 (all w NYY)

8 surrounding seasons: 10.6 O and 12.8 D

4 middle seasons: 77.4 O and 19.5 D

Other 10 year Sox eras in CF:

2007-2016

71.9/25.3 Jacoby (604 gms)

-8.2/28.2 JBJ (308 gms)

1.3/26.4 Crisp (242 gms)

25.2/4.8 Betts 159 gms)

The next guys were DMac, Kalish & Cameron who were a combined:

-15.4 O and -14.9 D

1997-2006

66.1/-18.9 Damon was all about O

Crisp and Kapler not so much.

 

[Maxbialystock]

18 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Around here, every RS player is about a 5-game streak away from demands for an arrest, or demands for an extension.  For one poster, I think his attention span is about two ABs before he makes a decision.

That's exactly why game threads were created--to feed our irrationality.  

[moonslav59]

Anyone joining me on the division win bandwagon?

[JoeBrady]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Anyone joining me on the division win bandwagon?

Yes, but this decidedly a one game at a time type of team.  And not that it means much, but tonight's results moves us ahead of the NYY in Py W/L, making us #4.  And our run differential is now #1 in the AL.

[moonslav59]

Yanks and Rays both lost. The schedule is catching up with them. The Rays have a brutal 10 game ending to their season, and the Sox face both teams at some point.

Think big fellow fans!

This team is special.

[JoeBrady]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yanks and Rays both lost. The schedule is catching up with them. The Rays have a brutal 10 game ending to their season, and the Sox face both teams at some point.

Think big fellow fans!

This team is special.

We need to pull to within two games of the NYY when we face them in NY.  Not getting ahead of myself, but that would pull us into a tie, with us having the tie-breaker.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

  And our run differential is now #1 in the AL.

It's been #1 a few days.

Tonight, we tied the Cubs for the 4th best run differential in all of MLB. When you consider where we were in late June, these numbers are astounding.

37-13 in the last 50 games. That's no tiny sample size.

That's a 74% winning %.

On June 24th, we had the worst record in the AL and a -7 Run differential. It's interesting to note that our Pythagorean W-L record on June 24th was 6 wins higher and 6th best in the AL- not 15th in record.

I think that shows we were better than 15th, and the way we played after June 24th kinda proves that point.

Our Run Diff is +105 in the last 50 games. That's more tan all but three teams over the full season!

Going by just W-L record, we are 8th best team in MLB, and while the NL gets all the hype for having the best teams, the AL East is the best division in all of MLB. Not a single team is in the bottom 12 in MLB. The last place team in the ALE is now one down in the WC race.

Need I go on?