Is this 2026 Red Sox team…CONTENDERS or PRETENDERS?

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

well despite being lefty heavy, i think sal stewart is the one i want.  He also can play many positions serviceably unlike steer who is like a lf/1b but really a dh and kind of fading. Unless hes resurging.  I use to follow the reds because i love pitching with hunter greene in the show.  Cuz hes got a sexy pitch mix.  But I had to take a break from the show.  Everyone is throwing up and in sinkers and i hate when everyone is just doing the same thing. Its also why I stopped playing magic the gathering.  You get to the professional level and everyone is just running the same deck they googled meta deck right now and its laaaaaaaame

I think we will not go "all in," and maybe i'm underestimating the cost of these two, but I'd try hard for...

RHB Jeffers C/DH

LHB BLowe 2B

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we will not go "all in," and maybe i'm underestimating the cost of these two, but I'd try hard for...

RHB Jeffers C/DH

LHB BLowe 2B

Lowe is a deadpull LHB with a big hole in his bat. Not sure he's a great fit. 

Jeffers is fine, but I'd be worried that you'd be overpaying for his hot start that will eventually cool. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Lowe is a deadpull LHB with a big hole in his bat. Not sure he's a great fit. 

Jeffers is fine, but I'd be worried that you'd be overpaying for his hot start that will eventually cool. 

Lowe has the power boost (52 HRs in his last 860 ABs) we need, but he does suck vs LHPs. His splits help being the price down.

Jeffers had a 113 OPS+ from '23-'25. This may be an outlier, but he's pretty good at his "norm." He kills lefties and his first half .760 and second half .740 career splits are not worrisome. For those who believe in clutch: he hits better with RISP and men on base than without. He's also .797 high leverage in his career.

I'm looking for players that will not force an "all in" type trade. They will have flaws that bring the price down.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

What I DON'T want to see is another straddle.  I think they need to definitively buy. 

I just want good deals.  If you over pay for good talent, and miss the playoffs, or are out in the first round, then it damages the future.  Basically, I'm an agnostic.  Make good deals whether it involves Arias++, or a few lottery tickets.

[moonslav59]

I'm asking for serious responses to a scenario that is far from serious:

Assume we win every game between now and the deadline (or lose just 1-2,) and on August 3rd we are a top 2-3 AL team.

Would you trade Arias, Eyanson and Witherspoon to get a big player or two?

Would you trade two of those three?

Would you include Early instead of Eyanson or Witherspoon or all 4?

I'm afraid it might take 3 of these guys to get what some seem to think we need/should target.

[JoeBrady]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we will not go "all in," and maybe i'm underestimating the cost of these two, but I'd try hard for...

RHB Jeffers C/DH

LHB BLowe 2B

I doubt that two teams with better records than us, will be selling.  We should be focusing on teams that will be selling, or maybe looking for payroll relief.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I doubt that two teams with better records than us, will be selling.  We should be focusing on teams that will be selling, or maybe looking for payroll relief.

Of course I am assuming those teams will be sellers or like the Rays- trade FAs-to-be, even when contender.

I think there is a good chance some teams will be sellers that are in the race right now.... maybe even the Sox.

3 weeks is a long time. We just saw what can happen in 2 weeks.

[JoeBrady]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm asking for serious responses to a scenario that is far from serious:

Assume we win every game between now and the deadline (or lose just 1-2,) and on August 3rd we are a top 2-3 AL team.

Would you trade Arias, Eyanson and Witherspoon to get a big player or two?

Would you trade two of those three?

Would you include Early instead of Eyanson or Witherspoon or all 4?

I'm afraid it might take 3 of these guys to get what some seem to think we need/should target.

Impossible to answer for a couple of reasons.

• What is the health status of our injured players?  Having a vintage Crochet for the playoffs would put me in an aggressive mood.  And to a lesser degree with Suarez and Early.  Before I start trading the farm, I want to be a near-lock for the playoffs, with a chance of being in 1st.  The playoff path is much slipperier if we play most of our games on the road.
• I'd need to who the big player is.  For those three guys, the only target I see is Yordie, and even for Yordie, that is a significant cost.

[notin]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm asking for serious responses to a scenario that is far from serious:

Assume we win every game between now and the deadline (or lose just 1-2,) and on August 3rd we are a top 2-3 AL team.

Would you trade Arias, Eyanson and Witherspoon to get a big player or two?

Would you trade two of those three?

Would you include Early instead of Eyanson or Witherspoon or all 4?

I'm afraid it might take 3 of these guys to get what some seem to think we need/should target.

Eyanson and Witherspoon are the no-brainer preferences over Arias and Early.
 

Arias’ rise might make Mayer more available on my eyes…

[moonslav59]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Impossible to answer for a couple of reasons.

• What is the health status of our injured players?  Having a vintage Crochet for the playoffs would put me in an aggressive mood.  And to a lesser degree with Suarez and Early.  Before I start trading the farm, I want to be a near-lock for the playoffs, with a chance of being in 1st.  The playoff path is much slipperier if we play most of our games on the road.
• I'd need to who the big player is.  For those three guys, the only target I see is Yordie, and even for Yordie, that is a significant cost.

Assume the same health- no Crochet or Anthony.

Do you trade Arias, Eyanson, Witherspoon & Gonzales for Yordan Alvarez?

If we add Godbout and Early for Pena, too?

BTW, word down here is that HOU is on the phone as buyers, right now, but that could change.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Eyanson and Witherspoon are the no-brainer preferences over Arias and Early.
 

Arias’ rise might make Mayer more available on my eyes…

I'm asking do you trade 3 or 4 of the 4, not which 2 would you trade.

"All in" is not trading just Eyanson & Witherspoon."

AZ wanted Early for Kelly, last summer. All in will need more than 2 AA prospects.

I'm not ever sure all 4 is enough, and that has been my whole point about this "all in" talk. It "might not be enough" as is.

[notin]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm asking do you trade 3 or 4 of the 4, not which 2 would you trade.

"All in" is not trading just Eyanson & Witherspoon."

AZ wanted Early for Kelly, last summer. All in will need more than 2 AA prospects.

I'm not ever sure all 4 is enough, and that has been my whole point about this "all in" talk. It "might not be enough" as is.

Well, you asked which two as well.  
 

Id prefer to hold Arias over Mayer, who is not without trade value himself.  
 

Also bear in mind, my goals are probably lower than yours.  I want a LF/DH and a RP, and thats it.  That can probably be had for far less, but the current players are winning now. 
 

Thsts if I was buying.  I prefer to sell of Chapman, Gray (with cash), and Duran and reload for 2027…

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, you asked which two as well.  
 

Id prefer to hold Arias over Mayer, who is not without trade value himself.  
 

Also bear in mind, my goals are probably lower than yours.  I want a LF/DH and a RP, and thats it.  That can probably be had for far less, but the current players are winning now. 
 

Thsts if I was buying.  I prefer to sell of Chapman, Gray (with cash), and Duran and reload for 2027…

Mayer does still have trade value- maybe more than my listed Witherspoon. To me, Mayer's trade value has slipped to a point where I'd prefer to keep him for 2 reasons:

1. He still has upside

2. We need middle infield help and a decent back-up 3BMan. 

I'm not for buying big, right now. I'm fully against an all-in buying deadline. I'm not even sure that changes of we go undefeated before the deadline.

I'm still leaning sell for Gray and am maybe 50-50 on Chapman. His age scares me, even if we go all in for 2027.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

Also bear in mind, my goals are probably lower than yours.  I want a LF/DH and a RP, and thats it.  That can probably be had for far less, but the current players are winning now. 
 

As of right now, my trade pieces are no higher than Phillips, Romero, Cespedes and Holobetz.

I might be talked into Gonzales or maybe Witherspoon, if our outlook improves, which includes a better chance that Anthony or Crochet will return, soon.

What these prospects get us is probably a DH/LF'er and RP'er.

As of now, I do not think we are far apart.

I'd prefer a SS over LF/DH, but their cost is higher than I'm willing to go. Even Witherspoon, Gonzales and Holobetz is not getting us a big boost at SS.

[sk7326]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Agree on the second point, as maybe the Sox have learned to temper expectations on their anointed saviors. But Anthony was only hyped by the org when he was first promoted for hitting the ball hard despite crappy stats. Soon after they were handing out t-shirts at Fenway Park of the Big Three -- before any had even played there. 

By the time they sent Roman (and Mayer) back to the minors and kept Campbell instead, everyone else was on board except the disingenuous front office. It took a 500-foot grand slam before they finally had no choice but to call him up and begrudgingly cough up $100 million bucks to keep him in the hopes of saving another hundred mil or so in the near future...

Arias was still a Top 100 prospect before he exploded this season.  More than anything I suspect he is semi-blocked since the team is still paying Trevor Story and hasn't given up on Mayer.  But the way he has progressed, he is probably going to make keeping Mayer or Story at the position look very silly.  

Are there the same sort of pressures I suspect from the FO to deliver a "win" which incentivized the super aggressive promotions?  I don't know.  We'll see if he forgets how to drive the ball like Anthony did when he got to the show. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, sk7326 said:

Arias was still a Top 100 prospect before he exploded this season.  More than anything I suspect he is semi-blocked since the team is still paying Trevor Story and hasn't given up on Mayer.  But the way he has progressed, he is probably going to make keeping Mayer or Story at the position look very silly.  

Are there the same sort of pressures I suspect from the FO to deliver a "win" which incentivized the super aggressive promotions?  I don't know.  We'll see if he forgets how to drive the ball like Anthony did when he got to the show. 

Anthony forgot how to drive the ball?

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/roman-anthony-701350?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
 

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Assume the same health- no Crochet or Anthony.

Do you trade Arias, Eyanson, Witherspoon & Gonzales for Yordan Alvarez?

If we add Godbout and Early for Pena, too?

BTW, word down here is that HOU is on the phone as buyers, right now, but that could change.

If they did this trade, are they just simply DFA'ing Story and Masa? Seems highly unlikely the Sox would go this route. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

Arias was still a Top 100 prospect before he exploded this season.  More than anything I suspect he is semi-blocked since the team is still paying Trevor Story and hasn't given up on Mayer.  But the way he has progressed, he is probably going to make keeping Mayer or Story at the position look very silly.  

Are there the same sort of pressures I suspect from the FO to deliver a "win" which incentivized the super aggressive promotions?  I don't know.  We'll see if he forgets how to drive the ball like Anthony did when he got to the show. 

Once we get into this offseason, it's far easier to make a decision on removing Story from the roster when there is less than one year remaining on the contract. Mayer also isn't the standard of health and hasn't been playing a great SS this year IMO. 

If Arias continues hitting in AAA, he may get a callup in September. I don't think anything in AAA or MLB is really in his way, just his development timeline. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they did this trade, are they just simply DFA'ing Story and Masa? Seems highly unlikely the Sox would go this route. 

We could add Alvarez and Pena and keep Story for 2B. I'd think Masa would have to go, unless we trade Duran to someone else (or HOU.)

[southpaw777]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm asking for serious responses to a scenario that is far from serious:

Assume we win every game between now and the deadline (or lose just 1-2,) and on August 3rd we are a top 2-3 AL team.

Would you trade Arias, Eyanson and Witherspoon to get a big player or two?

Would you trade two of those three?

Would you include Early instead of Eyanson or Witherspoon or all 4?

I'm afraid it might take 3 of these guys to get what some seem to think we need/should target.

if they decide to go for it the We absolutely will need a starter and a big bat, so yea absolutely EVERY prospect is available

. Our rotation is decimated and that was our strong point. Pitching wins games in the playoffs. Count on Gray and Suarez to be playoff starters. Everyone else is questionable. If I was all in in 2026, I’d go for a top starter and a BIg bat. Wipe out a good part of the top 10 in the farm system.

 

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

if they decide to go for it the We absolutely will need a starter and a big bat, so yea absolutely EVERY prospect is available

. Our rotation is decimated and that was our strong point. Pitching wins games in the playoffs. Count on Gray and Suarez to be playoff starters. Everyone else is questionable. If I was all in in 2026, I’d go for a top starter and a BIg bat. Wipe out a good part of the top 10 in the farm system.

 

The time to do this is winter not the deadline.

To get controlled players at the deadline is near double pay.

I don't trust JH to spend in the future to make up for no new farm infusions, so I'm against the all-in approach, even if we win every game up to the deadline.

If we do very well, I'd be okay with a significant buy, but not Arias or Eyanson. Maybe Early, Witherspoon, Gonzales & Phillips, at most. MAYBE!

[southpaw777]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The time to do this is winter not the deadline.

To get controlled players at the deadline is near double pay.

I don't trust JH to spend in the future to make up for no new farm infusions, so I'm against the all-in approach, even if we win every game up to the deadline.

If we do very well, I'd be okay with a significant buy, but not Arias or Eyanson. Maybe Early, Witherspoon, Gonzales & Phillips, at most. MAYBE!

That’s why I’d just sell. To me, if we’re going to really compete for a WS ring, we need a bat and a starter. That’ll cost what I said it would which is why I’d sell. I mean, I’d make a trade for the future at the deadline if it made sense. 
Anything significant will cost one or both of Arias and Eyanson. Early would be an offseason sell since he’s hurt. But I’m keeping him. 
whitherspoon Gonzo and Phillips are not as far along as the other two. Maybe they finish strong and their value goes up a little for an offseason move.

 

[moonslav59]

Just now, southpaw777 said:

That’s why I’d just sell. To me, if we’re going to really compete for a WS ring, we need a bat and a starter. That’ll cost what I said it would which is why I’d sell. I mean, I’d make a trade for the future at the deadline if it made sense. 
Anything significant will cost one or both of Arias and Eyanson. Early would be an offseason sell since he’s hurt. But I’m keeping him. 
whitherspoon Gonzo and Phillips are not as far along as the other two. Maybe they finish strong and their value goes up a little for an offseason move.

I don't see a team-controlled player trade happening at the deadline that will not be a gross overpay.

Winter trades are often overpays, too, but usually not to the same extreme or as prevalent.

I think Early is in play as a sell now trade, despite the injury, but the issue is that it would likely be for a rental.

I agree. We should sell, but I'm not sold on selling Chapman. Gray, yes. Chapman is here for 2027. If Brez makes 3 major success deals next winter, we should be in business.

[Old Red]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

You think people are more excited about Arias than they were about Roman Anthony? 

Not in Portland, or in Maine for that matter. 

[Old Red]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see a team-controlled player trade happening at the deadline that will not be a gross overpay.

Winter trades are often overpays, too, but usually not to the same extreme or as prevalent.

I think Early is in play as a sell now trade, despite the injury, but the issue is that it would likely be for a rental.

I agree. We should sell, but I'm not sold on selling Chapman. Gray, yes. Chapman is here for 2027. If Brez makes 3 major success deals next winter, we should be in business.

You guys all crack me up with all this sell talk. You going to tell the Managers, coaches, and Players in a Red Sox uniform that some of the loser fans especially those who live far away from Boston that they don’t think you’re good enough, or worth it, so we’re just going to sell instead of improving the team. You going to tell all the season ticket holders, and the rest of the fanbase that pay top dollar to pack Fenway the same thing that some fans think the team isn’t good enough, or worth it to try improve the team, so we’re going to sell instead. LOSER ATTITUDE all the way around. If you’re not going to play to win then DON’T play at all. I not only say Buy, but NO ONE is untouchable.🤔

[JoeBrady]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Assume the same health- no Crochet or Anthony.

Do you trade Arias, Eyanson, Witherspoon & Gonzales for Yordan Alvarez?

If we add Godbout and Early for Pena, too?

BTW, word down here is that HOU is on the phone as buyers, right now, but that could change.

No to both.  I like Yordie real well, but those are the top four guys in our system.  We'll be receiving about 15 bWAR and likely be giving up much more.

I'd be closer on the Pena, but he'll give us maybe 7.5 bWAR.  Early alone is probably worth maybe 11-15 bWAR.  And I like Godbout.  I wouldn't hate it, but I wouldn't do it.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, southpaw777 said:

Our rotation is decimated

The rotation is decimated?  The RS are #1 in ERA and OPS+ over the past 28 days.  Suarez should be back, and hopefully Early.  I'm not concerned about our rotation at this point.

[southpaw777]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The rotation is decimated?  The RS are #1 in ERA and OPS+ over the past 28 days.  Suarez should be back, and hopefully Early.  I'm not concerned about our rotation at this point.

 

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The rotation is decimated?  The RS are #1 in ERA and OPS+ over the past 28 days.  Suarez should be back, and hopefully Early.  I'm not concerned about our rotation at this point.

I meant our original starting 5. Early will be back.(I just saw He’s throwing from 75 feet right now) that’s good. . Suarez within a couple weeks. 
I doubt we see Crochet for a while.
if they go for it I still want a starter like we did with Jake Peavy, to eat some innngs to get through sept. Help with Tolle and Bennett IP limits…Peralta? I also would like a bat with some power behind it. 1-2 punch with Contreras.

 

[JoeBrady]

17 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

 

I meant our original starting 5. Early will be back.(I just saw He’s throwing from 75 feet right now) that’s good. . Suarez within a couple weeks. 
I doubt we see Crochet for a while.
if they go for it I still want a starter like we did with Jake Peavy, to eat some innngs to get through sept. Help with Tolle and Bennett IP limits…Peralta? I also would like a bat with some power behind it. 1-2 punch with Contreras.

 

You're probably right on adding an SP.  I can see an innings limit.  This is part of me wanting some clarity on Crochet.  Crochet, Gray, and Suarez is a huge 1-2-3, and I think we can muddle thru on a 4-5.

[southpaw777]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You're probably right on adding an SP.  I can see an innings limit.  This is part of me wanting some clarity on Crochet.  Crochet, Gray, and Suarez is a huge 1-2-3, and I think we can muddle thru on a 4-5.

Id like that 1-2-3 as well. Right now it’s only gray and Suarez. Even if Crochet makes it back, he’s been out for a while and will definitely have to ramp it up again. That may go into September.  He hasn’t even thrown a real baseball yet from what I understand. Early is throwing from 75ft, so that’s good. He should be back in August sometime as long as that elbow doesn’t start barking again. 
it’s the uncertainty with those two that has be a little concerned, as well as the other twos IP limits. its why I’d like an insurance policy down the stretch. Not a Skubal, which is why I mentioned a guy like Peralta or someone similar.