Red Sox's Craig Breslow Era Is Set to End With A Whimper

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nobody likes you when you're injured.  

Doctors do…

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I completely disagree because I'm confident that no one wanted to give up much for Duran and this year he has in fact come in handy with Anthony humbled by his little finger (go figure).   Duran has done well in LF with 5 assists, no errors, and some nifty catches.  His OPS stinks, but he is 4th on the team in total bases, 3d in rbi's, 3d in runs scored, 2d in dingers, and first in SB's.  Also 4th in games played on a team which has not hesitated to play almost anyone.  

Someone would have given up something good after 2024 and something better than now after '25, but I agree.

I have been for trading Duran for a long time, but one argument made sense to me: "When our weak area was obviously offense, why trade your top 3 offensive weapon, even if he has shown decline before reaching prime.?"

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Alex Mayes said:

The fact Breslow couldn’t see the inevitable downturn that was coming post 24 was insane. He should have sold high on multiple occasions. 

While nobody expected a repeat of 2024 in 2025 or ever again, i don't think anybody projected this steep of a decline. The fact is an 80% of the 2025 Duran (who was 80% of the 2024 Duran)would have been very helpful in 2026.

I don't want to sound like I'm defending the guy I suggested trading more than everyone else combined, but none of us expected this bad.

I do agree we should have traded him, but I'm biased. I wanted to trade him before 2024, too, so I'm not gloating, here.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, expecting any 8 WAR player to decline hardly requires psychic ability, but at some point, disappointment in not selling high shouldn’t rest solely on the belief that the other 29 GMs and CBOs are all impulsive morons.  Safe bet all of them knew this was selling high as well…

Let's say the most Duran optimistic GM thought he'd decline from 8 to 4: they'd still have made a hefty offer.

[Maxbialystock]

46 minutes ago, Alex Mayes said:

The Anthony hate is so funny. The kid has a freak injury likely caused by the team’s hitting philosophy and people act like he’s made of glass. 

The fact that Duran is that high in every category says far more about the state of the team than his abilities. The fact Breslow couldn’t see the inevitable downturn that was coming post 24 was insane. He should have sold high on multiple occasions. 

Are you serious????!!!!!  Anthony is our best player.  Yes, I ridicule the little finger, but have no doubt that it is real and debilitating enough to keep him from hitting.  He was absolutely stunning last July and August and there can be no doubt the Sox missed him in September and the wild card series.  A healthy Anthony would have been huge this season.  

About Duran and Breslow.  I never thought a downturn was inevitable.  But, if everyone was as prescient as you, then Breslow probably wasn't going to get much for Duran after that great 2024 season.  Other teams, just like you, would expect a huge downturn after 2024 and not offered much in return.  

Meanwhile, he has been useful last year and this year.  Keeping him was not as calamitous as you say.  He is earning his pay ($7.7M) better than Yoshida or Story.  Heck, better than Crochet or Anthony or Riner-Falefa.  

[Bellhorn04]

52 minutes ago, notin said:

Doctors do…

Tell that to Fred.  😀

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Meanwhile, [Duran} has been useful ....this year.  

I have to ask without sounding mean:

"Are you serious?"

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

I completely disagree because I'm confident that no one wanted to give up much for Duran and this year he has in fact come in handy with Anthony humbled by his little finger (go figure).   Duran has done well in LF with 5 assists, no errors, and some nifty catches.  His OPS stinks, but he is 4th on the team in total bases, 3d in rbi's, 3d in runs scored, 2d in dingers, and first in SB's.  Also 4th in games played on a team which has not hesitated to play almost anyone.  

I agree.  Duran is not having a good year, but he's not as bad as some of the numbers.  His .617 OPS is largely affected by his .245 BABIP.  His 3-year BABIP is .345.  Even at the lower end of the three years, his .326 in 2025 is still way ahead of his 2026 .245.  Duran can be a little out there, but if this was anyone else, I'd gladly bet on positive regression.

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I have to ask without sounding mean:

"Are you serious?"

You're never mean.  Yes, I'm serious

Is Duran anywhere near the guy, Anthony, he's replacing?  Heck, no.  But he sure as heck is healthier than Anthony--ditto Story, Casas, Sogard, Kiner-Falefa, and Mayer.  

Given the weak hitting this season, I don't think Cora or Chad Tracy has shown any reluctance to substitute like crazy to get the best bats in the lineup. 

Abreu has played in 90 games, Contreras 88, Rafaela 88, Duran 85, and Durbin 85.  Anthony, the guy whom Duran is replacing, has played in 30 games, several of them as DH.  The next most games by an outfielder is Eaton with 13.  Yoshida has been healthy all season and has played in 59 games, most of them as DH.  So two different managers have seen fit to keep Duran in the outfield (LF, mostly).   

As I keep saying, despite his faults, especially his OPS of .617, he has fielded ably with 5 assists, 0 errors, and some very good grabs.  He has the 2d most dingers on the team after Contreras, and also the 2d most rbi's.  He also has 21 more K's than anyone else--111 vs Contreras' 90.  111 puts him in the top ten of MLB.  The other 9 all have better OPS's:  .934, .787, .902, .963. 759, . 863. .734, .779, and .786.  So obviously Duran stays in the Sox lineup because of his fielding and because the Sox are struggling at the plate.  

last season after 92 games the Sox were 47-45 vs the current Sox at 44-48.  Despite the Sox wretched hitting, they are 3 games behind the 2025 Sox.   How is that possible?  I think the defense has made a  difference this year.  Last season's Sox gave up 80 unearned runs in 162 games.  This year's has 26 in 92 games, which projects to 47 unearned runs in 162 games.  

In other words, this year's Sox have almost made up for their horrible hitting by having great pitching and better defense than last season.  Sox ERA this year so far is 3.65.  Last season it was 3.70.  

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I agree.  Duran is not having a good year, but he's not as bad as some of the numbers.  His .617 OPS is largely affected by his .245 BABIP.  His 3-year BABIP is .345.  Even at the lower end of the three years, his .326 in 2025 is still way ahead of his 2026 .245.  Duran can be a little out there, but if this was anyone else, I'd gladly bet on positive regression.

To me, he seems worse than his .617 OPS indicates, for a few reasons:

1. His OBP is 70 points lower than 2025.

2. His .269 OBP in the one slot killed us.

3. Seemingly more baserunning blunders.

4. We avoided trading him with the expectation he'd be a top 3-4 offensive weapon on the team. His 76 OPS+ is 5th out of 5 batters with 300+ PAs. It's 6th out of 7 batters with 190+ PAs. (6th out of our top 9 batters by PAs, but Wong will likely pass Narvaez in the top 9 and someone might pass Mayer & Story, who are below Duran, right now in OPS.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

You're never mean.  Yes, I'm serious

Is Duran anywhere near the guy, Anthony, he's replacing?  Heck, no.  But he sure as heck is healthier than Anthony--ditto Story, Casas, Sogard, Kiner-Falefa, and Mayer.  

The fact that we don't have the depth to replace Duran and improve doesn't take him off the hook. His bat has killed us, this year- not single-handedly, but more than anyone else, because he's 3rd in PAs and was so bad in the one slot for way too long. (That's more on Cora than him, but it is what it is: a .269 OBP in the one slot.)

Abreu and Contreras might have 10-15 mor RBIs, had he just declined to a .325 OBP from .345>.335 the years before.

[vegasbob]

Someday Anthony may well live up to his potential and he is still very young.  If the RS hitting tactics are injuring him maybe he needs to swing "his way" .  He has missed notable development time in '25 and now much of '26.  He hit weakly in , like many others, in April this year.

There is real concern that 2027 will be a short season , if at all., further jeopardizing Anthony's development as a pro hitter.

To think he should be or will be the keystone of the lineup is putting too many eggs in one basket .  Let's talk about him when he is back to playing which will be no time soon .

[Maxbialystock]

Agree he should not have led off.  5th or 6th in the order seems about right.  

49 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, he seems worse than his .617 OPS indicates, for a few reasons:

1. His OBP is 70 points lower than 2025.

2. His .269 OBP in the one slot killed us.

3. Seemingly more baserunning blunders.

4. We avoided trading him with the expectation he'd be a top 3-4 offensive weapon on the team. His 76 OPS+ is 5th out of 5 batters with 300+ PAs. It's 6th out of 7 batters with 190+ PAs. (6th out of our top 9 batters by PAs, but Wong will likely pass Narvaez in the top 9 and someone might pass Mayer & Story, who are below Duran, right now in OPS.

Completely disagree with #4.  First of all, there ain't no "we" in this.  We have no say in what gets done.  Secondly, there is no way the head shed should have expected "top 3-4 offensive weapon" when the outfield was supposed to be Anthony, Rafaela, and Abreu.  

As for "killing us" in the one slot, it's the manager's job to slot players advantageously.  

 

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Agree he should not have led off.  5th or 6th in the order seems about right.  

Completely disagree with #4.  First of all, there ain't no "we" in this.  We have no say in what gets done.  Secondly, there is no way the head shed should have expected "top 3-4 offensive weapon" when the outfield was supposed to be Anthony, Rafaela, and Abreu.  

As for "killing us" in the one slot, it's the manager's job to slot players advantageously.  

 

He's killed us in every slot.

fangraph's projected aOPS (400+ PAs)

.803 Anthony

.788 Abreu

.785 Contreras

.762 Duran

.746 Durbin (not even close to #4.)

.725 Rafaela (not close)

.713 Story (not close)

When I said "we" I was speaking to the general feeling, and I'm not nor ever have been "big on" Duran.

His speed made him a top 3-4 offensive player. He's 50 points below his projected OBP, and it made sense to see how he did batting first, once Anthony was no longer available. I do blame Cora for sticking with him for so long, but not for trying him there.

Look, I wanted to trade him. I just don't see everything as black & white. The argument that we shouldn't trade one of our projected top offensive players made some sense... just as it made some sense at the time to trade away a pitcher like Sale who was hurt all the time.

I suggested we trade Duran for Paredes, Janek and a RP'er, and many here felt that was an overpay. From what I hear, HOU didn't even want Duran one for one, so I'm really not sure what was offered for him last DEC-JAN.

I wish we'd have traded him after 2024, but hell, I was for trading him before 2024, so I'm no fortune teller either.