Rays (Scholtens) vs Red Sox (Early): 5/8/26, 7:10pm

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Yeah so good he made the Cubs all better last year, too…

Runs per game 4.90 to 5.38, OPS+ 117 to 126.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That they should move towards their career norms, but the Sox players will continue to flop.

Jarren Duran (124 OPS+ last 3 years, current 61) and Trevor Story (97 OPS+ last 3 yrs, current 47).  
 

Whats the logic for Pete Alonso reverting to previous performance but not these players?  

[notin]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

All their key numbers are better this year by 5-10%.

You’re comparing 40 game numbers to 162 game numbers.

 

[iortiz]

On 5/9/2026 at 9:31 AM, notin said:

Elite bats?? Plural?
 

Please don’t tell me you think Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman are “elite bats”…

I wanted Bregman and Marte. 

[JoeBrady]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Bichette is a tough call.  If healthy, Hes at the age many players explode.  But if he isn’t, he could be an expensive sinkhole for the Mets…

The worst part of the contract is the player-option part.  If he continues to stink it up, he is still guaranteed $42M for next year, and $42M for the following year.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Hes 25, improving and not the problem…

He may very well drop off over the remaining season, but he has improved on his biggest faults and is still pre-prime. There is no reason to expect or project a downtick in his overall numbers.

Rafaela did drop off at the end of 2025, but so did Bregman, but signing Bregman was okay?

The other thing is hardly any player ends the season at their season high OPS. Ceddanne peaked at .756 in early August and ended up at .708, but that .708 mark was higher than most days of the season, and also, he ended the season with a 15 game OPS of .832. Can we really expect a late season drop off based on this? I can cherry pick his .730 OPS after JUN 19th.

This seems fair...

.702 first 78 games

.714 last 78 games

[iortiz]

On 5/9/2026 at 11:07 AM, moonslav59 said:

More than 50% of the "elite bats" from last winter are underperforming or vastly underperforming. When you then consider our track record on selecting "the right guy" with our largest FA bat signings, I do pause to wonder why we put so much hope into that avenue as "the solution." I'm not calling out posters for being wrong, as I was calling for major signings, too, but the results of major bat signings out of the gate does not look good:

In order by largest contract (age) OPS

Tucker (29) .739

Bregman (32) .677

Bellinger (30>31) .899

Alonso (31) .786

Schwarber (33) .893

Bichette (28) .571

None over .900, two doing well (800-900), one doing okay (750-799) and three doing poorly, including one very poorly (under 750)

2-1-3 (more bad than good)

______________

$60-$120M

Naylor (28>29) .681

Okamoto (29>30) .825

1-1

_____________

$25M>$59M

Realmuto (35) .677

Polanco (32>33) .532

Murakami (26) .947 (The only one over 900)

1-2

_________________

Total:

1 Great (Murakami- the guy nobody here wanted)

3 Good (over 800) Schwarber, Bellinger, Okamoto

1 Okay (750-799) Alonso

4 Bad (650-749) Tucker, Bregman, Naylor

2 Horrific (<650) Bichette & Polanco 

____________

4 Good to Great

1 Okay

6 Bad or worse

Most of us wanted to see an effort, and the pivot from Bregman to Suarez was a gut punch to hopes for a good offense or better, but he has saved the pitching staff- he and the kids.

A I said I wanted Bregman and Marte. Both would have fit great here. Both will end up with 800+ this year. Story, Durbin, Mayer, etc? not even close. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, iortiz said:

I wanted Bregman and Marte. 

I was meh on Bregman, whom Ive not been a fan of after that Houston cheating thing.  I don’t even mind the cheating.  It was the whining about being booed after getting exposed.  I died a little inside every time I cheered for him and I do not mind that he is gone.

I might have been the first to mention Marte on this board.  But I do get they wanted more than Duran plus Bello.  I didn’t get their fascination with Mayer, mostly because they appeared to need OF more than INF.  But they did move Lawlor to the OF and traded Blaze Alexander to Baltimore.

Isaac Paredes also made a ton of sense to me…

[JoeBrady]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Runs per game 4.90 to 5.38, OPS+ 117 to 126.

Among the younger players:

• Busch -149
• Hoerner +27
• PCA -57
• Shaw +92

Tough to draw out any conclusions from that.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, iortiz said:

A I said I wanted Bregman and Marte. Both would have fit great here. Both will end up with 800+ this year. Story, Durbin, Mayer, etc? not even close. 

I see no reason to think Bregman will end up at .800, even if he was at .799, now.

I do think Marte has a couple more .800+ seasons in him.

Bregman is not a "big bat" and hasn't been one sine 2018.

[iortiz]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

I was meh on Bregman, whom Ive not been a fan of after that Houston cheating thing.  I don’t even mind the cheating.  It was the whining about being booed after getting exposed.  I died a little inside every time I cheered for him and I do not mind that he is gone.

I might have been the first to mention Marte on this board.  But I do get they wanted more than Duran plus Bello.  I didn’t get their fascination with Mayer, mostly because they appeared to need OF more than INF.  But they did move Lawlor to the OF and traded Blaze Alexander to Baltimore.

Isaac Paredes also made a ton of sense to me…

Bello and Duran for Marte-? it is a bargain in my book. Never liked Bello and Duran is a rollercoaster with mental issues. My only concern on Bregman is his durability, but even so he could be an elite DH at the very least. If you think it about they could still get Durbin while developing him. Instead kid has to deliver, NOW! The latter wouldn't have happened though If we had signed Bregman anyways. They are not that smart or smart at all.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

I was meh on Bregman, whom Ive not been a fan of after that Houston cheating thing.  I don’t even mind the cheating.  It was the whining about being booed after getting exposed.  I died a little inside every time I cheered for him and I do not mind that he is gone.

I might have been the first to mention Marte on this board.  But I do get they wanted more than Duran plus Bello.  I didn’t get their fascination with Mayer, mostly because they appeared to need OF more than INF.  But they did move Lawlor to the OF and traded Blaze Alexander to Baltimore.

Isaac Paredes also made a ton of sense to me…

I'd have been thrilled to have Contreras, Marte and Paredes. It's hard to know what we'd give up for Paredes (not Abreu) and Marte (I'd have given Duran, Bello and Witherspoon, but would AZ have said yes?) Had we gotten Marte and Paredes, trading Mayer would have been fine with me.

Mayer, Bello & Witherspoon for Marte?

Duran, DHam & Harrison for Paredes, Janek & King?

[iortiz]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I see no reason to think Bregman will end up at .800, even if he was at .799, now.

I do think Marte has a couple more .800+ seasons in him.

Bregman is not a "big bat" and hasn't been one sine 2018.

Can't read the future but guy can hit and IMO he'll be around 800. Time will tell though. 

[notin]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Runs per game 4.90 to 5.38, OPS+ 117 to 126.

So that’s clearly just Bregman? Or Bregman at all?  

[notin]

6 minutes ago, iortiz said:

Bello and Duran for Marte-? it is a bargain in my book. Never liked Bello and Duran is a rollercoaster with mental issues. My only concern on Bregman is his durability, but even so he could be an elite DH at the very least. If you think about they could still get Durbin while developing him. Instead kid has to deliver, NOW! The latter wouldn't have happened though If we had signed Bregman anyways. 

Arguably a bargain, but Marte is older and fell out of favor with the DBacks for his time off requests, some of which seemed a bit sketchy.  Possible those rumors were a bit exaggerated.

And Bello might not be held with the same contempt around the league as he is by Sox fans.  He was ninth in the AL in ERA ladt year.  Hes not nothing…

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, notin said:

So that’s clearly just Bregman? Or Bregman at all?  

Jeez man, lighten up.  It was a casual observation based on the notion that gets floated about Bregman being a second hitting coach type.

[JoeBrady]

6 minutes ago, iortiz said:

A I said I wanted Bregman and Marte.

Bregman woud be a surprise.  He's only been a .799 over the past 6 years,  In order to reach .800, I think he'd need about an .846 the rest of the way.  

Marte has an .849 over the past 6, and would have to average an .863.  So possible for both, but less than likely.

But more importantly, the .846 and .863 only get them back to being a good player, not great players.

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Among the younger players:

• Busch -149
• Hoerner +27
• PCA -57
• Shaw +92

Tough to draw out any conclusions from that.

It was not a rigorously researched remark.  I just noticed that Bregman's numbers are crappy but the team's are great, so it was kind of a jokey observation based on his reputation.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, iortiz said:

Can't read the future but guy can hit and IMO he'll be around 800. Time will tell though. 

Bregman has not hit .800 in 4 seasons.

3 of 6 seasons, counting 2026.

Since 2020, he's hit over .804 just twice- once in a shortened 2025 season.

[JoeBrady]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd have been thrilled to have Contreras, Marte and Paredes. It's hard to know what we'd give up for Paredes (not Abreu) and Marte (I'd have given Duran, Bello and Witherspoon, but would AZ have said yes?) Had we gotten Marte and Paredes, trading Mayer would have been fine with me.

Mayer, Bello & Witherspoon for Marte?

Duran, DHam & Harrison for Paredes, Janek & King?

That's about right.  At the end of the day, I think the approximately trade asks were:

• Abreu for Paredes, and that wasn't going to work for us.
• Tolle + Mayer, and that wasn't going to work for us.

[JoeBrady]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It was not a rigorously researched remark.  I just noticed that Bregman's numbers are crappy but the team's are great, so it was kind of a jokey observation based on his reputation.

No problem at all.  He could easily be having a positive impact, but the improvement could easily be chalked up to Ballesteros playing fulltime, or the signing Conforto to a minor contract.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Jeez man, lighten up.  It was a casual observation based on the notion that gets floated about Bregman being a second hitting coach type.

Well, it was a crazy assumption/conclusion based on different sample sizes.

For example, this year after 40 games, the Cubs have scored 215runs.  Last year after 40 games, the Cubs had scored 227 runs.  So  did their offense get better or worse with Bregman?  And is he in any way responsible for any of it?

The answer is - roughly equal is my guess.  12 runs across 40 games might be dependent on opposing pitchers.  (Or their one 16 run outburst last April.)

I can’t get team OPS+ numbers across.partial seasons, but my guess is the Cubs slowly reverted from a number like 126 after 40 games down to a 118. 

 

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

No problem at all.  He could easily be having a positive impact, but the improvement could easily be chalked up to Ballesteros playing fulltime, or the signing Conforto to a minor contract.

Or just different sample sizes…

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Here's his quote:

The jury is still out on Bichette and E Suarez too. The season is early

No one has ever lost money betting against my memory, but no one should challenge me on something I read 5 minutes ago.

Your memory is fine. But you are confused. I said it’s too late for the FLOPS this year but I never said that isn’t also true of other TEAMS. 
Suarez and Bichette aren’t TEAMS last I checked 

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, Alonso or Schwarber takes Yoshida's DH slot, but we'd still need a 2B/3Bman, and you keep mentioning IKF vs Alonso and IKF vs Schwarber.

Now, Bichette or Bregman vs IKF makes more sense, although I wanted neither.

E Suarez was available but too expensive for our cheapskate owner.

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Hes 25, improving snd not the problem…

Not yet. Be patient!

[JoeBrady]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

Or just different sample sizes…

Impossible to know.  Last year, PCA started off on fire and then disappeared.  Suzuki started off great, then disappeared, then picked it up in September.  There are way too many variables to draw any conclusions.

[notin]

12 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

E Suarez was available but too expensive for our cheapskate owner.

Again another 1b/DH type.

The Sox needed someone capable of playing 2b or 3b.  There’s more to baseball than batting…

[FredLynn]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Again another 1b/DH type.

The Sox needed someone capable of playing 2b or 3b.  There’s more to baseball than batting…

Suarez plays 3B. He was available for the right price. Alonso was available. He plays 1B. We have a 2B man already. With Suarez, Alonso, Contreras, and Ranger we would have been playing in October. But the signed bums because Henry is a cheapskate.

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Suarez plays 3B. He was available for the right price. Alonso was available. He plays 1B. We have a 2B man already. With Suarez, Alonso, Contreras, and Ranger we would have been playing in October. But the signed bums because Henry is a cheapskate.

Fred as I told you before they just don’t get the Point. As I’ve told you if you say JH is a cheapskate 1000 times one will say is not, is not, is not, 1000 times, and then he’ll say he’s not apologizing, or defending JH when we know he is. The other one will tell you there is more to baseball than hitting when the Red Sox are 27th in the league in runs scored. That’s what you’re up against.🙈