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Old-Timey Member
Posted
7 hours ago, iortiz said:

He’s hitting what? 200? Not to mention he already injured and hasn’t field well.

 

But hey.., we are still in the “it’s still early bandwagon.”

It cracks me up of all the excuses, and protection being thrown little Anthony’s way. Yes he’s only 21, and hasn’t set the league on fire yet, but that didn’t stop all the hype, and being anointed the next big thing before he did. He has 1 HR with 5 RBI one of which the pitcher fell off the mound trying to field a little grounder of his. Everyone expected so much more yes even at 21. His production, or lack of has helped the team to only have a 12-18 record. If he doesn’t pick it up soon maybe little Anthony needs to go visit KC down at Woo, or switch places with him. The early bandwagon counts just as much as any other time. He may turn out to be another Fred Lynn, but at the moment, which is all that counts at the moment he’s only little Anthony.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
1 hour ago, Old Red said:

It cracks me up of all the excuses, and protection being thrown little Anthony’s way. Yes he’s only 21, and hasn’t set the league on fire yet, but that didn’t stop all the hype, and being anointed the next big thing before he did. He has 1 HR with 5 RBI one of which the pitcher fell off the mound trying to field a little grounder of his. Everyone expected so much more yes even at 21. His production, or lack of has helped the team to only have a 12-18 record. If he doesn’t pick it up soon maybe little Anthony needs to go visit KC down at Woo, or switch places with him. The early bandwagon counts just as much as any other time. He may turn out to be another Fred Lynn, but at the moment, which is all that counts at the moment he’s only little Anthony.

It’s not an excuse to look at how well he is hitting the ball on his StatCast page and notice he is doing most things right.  Some of us don’t use RBIs to measure a leadoff hitter, or really, any player.  Sure 1 HR.  So what? Plenty of good hitters have that total or less right now.  

And so what if fans get excited about him? There is plenty there to get excited about, and getting excited is what fans do. 

Demotions happen, and if it does here you will unlikely gloat. Not because you were right; youre noncommittal about everything until it becomes time to blatantly lie.  But only because you don’t like seeing fans (which is short for “fanatics”) get excited about their team. It’s not going to stop happening.  
 

I mean, are you really calling for patience on a hitter “an excuse” IN APRIL?!??!   
 

Hes a very young player; some of us have patience.  Labeling him a “suspect” until he meets whatever your criteria you have is absolutely not patience…

 

Posted
10 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

how many "can't miss players" turn into dogshit? yeah, a lot more than those become stars like Mookie. so, yeah, lets pay stupid money to every "top prospect" on the slim chance one in hundred "might" hit it big. hell yeah, let's tie up more money now on Casas, Mayer, Narvaez, Tolle, Early, etc. to save Henry some money later. assuming they all turn into all stars.

The only one I really have a gripe with is Campbell. He doesn't even have a position. That's insane.

Posted

This has been my issue for a very long time:  Hyping players who have never repeated performance year over year,  which is the result of salesmen who pitch distraction as big contracts are proffered.  We do not have a home run hitter on our team.  Anthony looked like a contact doubles guy (sort of like a Boggs) but this year is being pushed to try to hit homers (that doesn't work).  He had one big homer last year and everyone hyped as the next coming Ruth and Williams.  Focus on contact first. 

I look at Mayer and his size and think he should be playing 3rd base, not 2nd.  Like Anthony, he needs to be focused on contact and the best way is in the minors.  

Rafaela may have outfield speed, but base stealing and bunting doesn't seem to be his thing.  Pitching staffs have adjusted to him.  Work on contact. 

Again, I don't understand these Breslow contracts to the unproven.

Posted
10 hours ago, notin said:

Is it worth giving 5 players utility infielder money to risk getting one superstar?  Campbell has an AAV of $7.25 million. On today’s market, that gets you Steven Matz.  Bello makes a little over $9mill AAV, enough to almost sign Kyle Finnegan.

Now together, both their deals are worth $115mill, which can get you 3 years of Framber Valdez, who is likely only that cheap due to his anger issues.  Or, hey, the Sox could have gotten 4 years of Kazuma Okamoto and had enough left for 3 years of Tsunyami Imai, not that either of them have earned their contracts yet.

Why not roll the dice on these deals?  Because you want a $500 mill contract attached to a player who then gets surrounded by replacement level talent?

Thats the beauty of these deals; the players don’t need to turn into stars to justify them.  Bello is making less money this year than Mike Lorenzen.  Have you EVER wanted the Sox to sign Mike f***ing Lorenzen?  Third rate closers have higher AAVs than Bello.  His pitching might be a bust, but his contract isn’t, because he fits in well with s*** team closer money.  

Earn their money first? We don’t want them earning the wages they’re being paid..

i didn't mention your strawmen, Valdez, Okamoto or Lorenzen. when they get to arb, pay them if they're worth it. or not and when they get to free agency, pay them if they're worth it. or not. the money they tie up, unnecessarily tie up, could be used to pay a guy that's worth it.  just wait....in a few years, Moon is going to post how we don't have the $$$ to sign a free agent because we have $40-50 million on the books on guys who aren't even here.  

Old-Timey Member
Posted
9 hours ago, notin said:

You’re right.  He’s clearly a bust.  It’s like the old saying goes “if they’re not hitting by 21, they never will.”

All I’m saying he’s officially a concern in my book since he is supposed to be “special.” 

Old-Timey Member
Posted
45 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i didn't mention your strawmen, Valdez, Okamoto or Lorenzen. when they get to arb, pay them if they're worth it. or not and when they get to free agency, pay them if they're worth it. or not. the money they tie up, unnecessarily tie up, could be used to pay a guy that's worth it.  just wait....in a few years, Moon is going to post how we don't have the $$$ to sign a free agent because we have $40-50 million on the books on guys who aren't even here.  

Sure there is the possibility that all 4 of Bello, Anthony, Campbell and Rafaela soend thr rest of their careers in AAA.  But it’s slim based on Rafaela alone securing a roll.

Or maybe Anthony never becomes a star and Bello (a punching bag today, but we all know he can pitch better because he has done it) just remain average players.  Well, right now they’re all really paid that way, which makes them tradable. The combined AAV is around $40mill, which isn’t a killer for 4 players.  And their total spend (including money already spent) is about $270mill. Again, Thsts for 4 players and spread across 9 seasons.  This isn’t the stumbling block many are afraid of, especially considering it’s not like Boston was collecting top tier free agents even before these deals went out.  It’s not like it prevented them from signing Bregman and Suarez.  And they aren’t going to turn into the financial handicap the Schwarber/ Turner/ Harper/ Wheeler/ Castellanos/ Luzardo/ Nola are going to be in Philly over the next few seasons.

Fans want contracts with immediate results.  Sure. I get it.  But for these types of deals, it might not happen right away. If they become stars, their immediate assets.  If not, the players you wind up missing out on are the Lorenzen / Finnegan / IKF types.  Fantasies that the Sox were going to save all $270mill and sign some Dylan Cease type should have been abandoned long ago, even before any of these deals happened…

Old-Timey Member
Posted
3 hours ago, notin said:

It’s not an excuse to look at how well he is hitting the ball on his StatCast page and notice he is doing most things right.  Some of us don’t use RBIs to measure a leadoff hitter, or really, any player.  Sure 1 HR.  So what? Plenty of good hitters have that total or less right now.  

And so what if fans get excited about him? There is plenty there to get excited about, and getting excited is what fans do. 

Demotions happen, and if it does here you will unlikely gloat. Not because you were right; youre noncommittal about everything until it becomes time to blatantly lie.  But only because you don’t like seeing fans (which is short for “fanatics”) get excited about their team. It’s not going to stop happening.  
 

I mean, are you really calling for patience on a hitter “an excuse” IN APRIL?!??!   
 

Hes a very young player; some of us have patience.  Labeling him a “suspect” until he meets whatever your criteria you have is absolutely not patience…

 

When “rudimentary” stats like RBIs BA OBP and SLG are bad, your advanced stats are likely bad as well. That’s nothing but a cop out to sound you know the game. In big sample sizes “rudimentary” stats define a player as good as advanced stats, period. If you are a 200 hitter for 7 seasons you are likely not a good hitter. It’s that simple. 
 

Said that, all the hype on Anthony isn’t helping him. Right now he looks like a subpar player with durability concerns. 
 

Do I still believe he’s going to comeback? Absolutely. Yet, Is he a concern even this “early”? In my book he is. 

Old-Timey Member
Posted
18 minutes ago, iortiz said:

All I’m saying he’s officially a concern in my book since he is supposed to be “special.” 

Ummm… making MLB by age 21 is special, isn’t it? Like I said earlier, there are probably going to be highly-regarded players drafted this June that are his age or older, and will be headed for A ball.

Just because a player is “special” doesn’t mean he makes the All Star team before he can legally drink. 
 

Roman is basically putting up Mookie numbers.  His age 21 OPS exceeded Mookie’s (.859 to .812).   And after 110 PA, this year his age 22 OPS of .642 is nearly identical the .649 OPS Betts had after 103 PA at age 22.

In hindsight, do we wish we signed Betts to an extension then?

 

Old-Timey Member
Posted
11 minutes ago, iortiz said:

When “rudimentary” stats like RBIs BA OBP and SLG are bad, your advanced stats are likely bad as well. That’s nothing but a cop out to sound you know the game. In big sample sizes “rudimentary” stats define a player as good as advanced stats, period. If you are a 200 hitter for 7 seasons you are likely not a good hitter. It’s that simple. 
 

Said that, all the hype on Anthony isn’t helping him. Right now he looks like a subpar player with durability concerns. 
 

Do I still believe he’s going to comeback? Absolutely. Yet, Is he a concern this “early”? In my book he is. 

I have 0 concerns about Anthony.  StatCast data tells me much more about how he is hitting than batting average and RBIs, especially after only 110 PA.  I have patience a lot of thing will balance out because he is hitting the ball with authority.  His Ks are higher than I like, but then he is also walking a lot.  If he was striking out and not walking, thats a legitimate concern..,

Old-Timey Member
Posted
2 hours ago, Deja Doh said:

This has been my issue for a very long time:  Hyping players who have never repeated performance year over year,  which is the result of salesmen who pitch distraction as big contracts are proffered.  We do not have a home run hitter on our team.  Anthony looked like a contact doubles guy (sort of like a Boggs) but this year is being pushed to try to hit homers (that doesn't work).  He had one big homer last year and everyone hyped as the next coming Ruth and Williams.  Focus on contact first. 

I look at Mayer and his size and think he should be playing 3rd base, not 2nd.  Like Anthony, he needs to be focused on contact and the best way is in the minors.  

Rafaela may have outfield speed, but base stealing and bunting doesn't seem to be his thing.  Pitching staffs have adjusted to him.  Work on contact. 

Again, I don't understand these Breslow contracts to the unproven.

Seems like locking down unproven young men with high ceiling worked in Atlanta, a team that doesn’t open the wallet that easy, and everyone else in the league is copying that included the Red Sox. Problem is you have to be good at evaluating young talent at both performance and personal lifestyle. It’s a “low” risk — big win opportunity they say, but still a risk, especially because your young men could relax or simply won’t work as expected. Look at Bello and Campbell. Bello is mediocre at best and Campbell probably won’t see a MLB AB again. Rafaela is mediocre at best at hitting with a great glove. Anthony is supposed to be the next Williams (or sort of) and this far he looks lost at the plate with a sloppy glove and durability concerns. Ppl will tell you that all that money invested are peanuts, maybe, but as I said, these young men could relax, distract and even don’t care anymore. Their lives are solved financially, anyways.  Not to mention you are taxing the team trying to develop them. 

Posted
12 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

how many "can't miss players" turn into dogshit? yeah, a lot more than those become stars like Mookie. so, yeah, lets pay stupid money to every "top prospect" on the slim chance one in hundred "might" hit it big. hell yeah, let's tie up more money now on Casas, Mayer, Narvaez, Tolle, Early, etc. to save Henry some money later. assuming they all turn into all stars.

"Can't miss players" do not have a 1 in a hundred chance of hitting it big.

Nobody is asking to lock in Casas, now. There was some talk earlier, and he is an example of why you don't/shouldn't lock every promising prospect up long term.

The other aspect is how much are you paying them? Take Bello and KC, who seem like the most likely to be busts. Neither got superstar pay or even good star pay.

Remaining pay:

Bello: $6M, $8.5M, $16M, $19M then $1M buyout for 2030. That's $50M/4 remaining. What would Bello have gotten as a 26 year old FA coming off a 3 season with a 105 ERA+ and a 6.6 bWAR?

Campbell: 26:$2M, 27:$3M, 28:$4M, 29:$6M, 30:$9M, 31:$13M, 32:$16M, 33:$19M club option ($4M buyout), 34:$21M club option (no buyout)

Posted
40 minutes ago, notin said:

Sure there is the possibility that all 4 of Bello, Anthony, Campbell and Rafaela soend thr rest of their careers in AAA.  But it’s slim based on Rafaela alone securing a roll.

Or maybe Anthony never becomes a star and Bello (a punching bag today, but we all know he can pitch better because he has done it) just remain average players.  Well, right now they’re all really paid that way, which makes them tradable. The combined AAV is around $40mill, which isn’t a killer for 4 players.  And their total spend (including money already spent) is about $270mill. Again, Thsts for 4 players and spread across 9 seasons.  This isn’t the stumbling block many are afraid of, especially considering it’s not like Boston was collecting top tier free agents even before these deals went out.  It’s not like it prevented them from signing Bregman and Suarez.  And they aren’t going to turn into the financial handicap the Schwarber/ Turner/ Harper/ Wheeler/ Castellanos/ Luzardo/ Nola are going to be in Philly over the next few seasons.

Fans want contracts with immediate results.  Sure. I get it.  But for these types of deals, it might not happen right away. If they become stars, their immediate assets.  If not, the players you wind up missing out on are the Lorenzen / Finnegan / IKF types.  Fantasies that the Sox were going to save all $270mill and sign some Dylan Cease type should have been abandoned long ago, even before any of these deals happened…

to be clear, i'm not against paying them, even a big prearb deal; i just think the Sox should have waited a bit more to see exactly what they are getting.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
26 minutes ago, iortiz said:

When “rudimentary” stats like RBIs BA OBP and SLG are bad, your advanced stats are likely bad as well. That’s nothing but a cop out to sound you know the game. In big sample sizes “rudimentary” stats define a player as good as advanced stats, period. If you are a 200 hitter for 7 seasons you are likely not a good hitter. It’s that simple. 
 

Said that, all the hype on Anthony isn’t helping him. Right now he looks like a subpar player with durability concerns. 
 

Do I still believe he’s going to comeback? Absolutely. Yet, Is he a concern this “early”? In my book he is. 

Good post. It’s very comforting to know that some have zero concerns about little Anthony, and statcast says he doing better than he is, but RIGHT NOW the Red Sox are piling up losses, and RIGHT NOW Anthony’s lack of production has a helping hand in that. All the early hype on him I don’t believe was, because he could draw some walks. I think most fans care more about relevant stats that actually shows up on the scoreboard, which lead to wins, and losses. Right now little Anthony looks completely lost out there. I watched Tony C come up at age 19, and produce, and produced even more at age 20. If Anthony is good enough, which I believe he is he’ll eventually get going, and if he’s not he won’t.

Posted
8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

"Can't miss players" do not have a 1 in a hundred chance of hitting it big.

Nobody is asking to lock in Casas, now. There was some talk earlier, and he is an example of why you don't/shouldn't lock every promising prospect up long term.

The other aspect is how much are you paying them? Take Bello and KC, who seem like the most likely to be busts. Neither got superstar pay or even good star pay.

Remaining pay:

Bello: $6M, $8.5M, $16M, $19M then $1M buyout for 2030. That's $50M/4 remaining. What would Bello have gotten as a 26 year old FA coming off a 3 season with a 105 ERA+ and a 6.6 bWAR?

Campbell: 26:$2M, 27:$3M, 28:$4M, 29:$6M, 30:$9M, 31:$13M, 32:$16M, 33:$19M club option ($4M buyout), 34:$21M club option (no buyout)

it is still money. and they had no reason to do this. over the winter, you were looking for somewhere we could save $8M. there is going to be a bunch of dead money on the books for no reason at all. none.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
35 minutes ago, notin said:

Ummm… making MLB by age 21 is special, isn’t it? Like I said earlier, there are probably going to be highly-regarded players drafted this June that are his age or older, and will be headed for A ball.

Just because a player is “special” doesn’t mean he makes the All Star team before he can legally drink. 
 

Roman is basically putting up Mookie numbers.  His age 21 OPS exceeded Mookie’s (.859 to .812).   And after 110 PA, this year his age 22 OPS of .642 is nearly identical the .649 OPS Betts had after 103 PA at age 22.

In hindsight, do we wish we signed Betts to an extension then?

 

The Red Sox thought he could carry the team by himself and made the fans to believe that. Look how they built it. he was hitting 1 and now he’s hitting 3. Only proven players or very special ones hit that high in big market teams in a regular basis. You have the minors to develop players, at MLB level there’s no patience especially with that hype on him. Add to the equation that this team was in the conversations to make the WS, doesn’t help. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

it is still money. and they had no reason to do this. over the winter, you were looking for somewhere we could save $8M. there is going to be a bunch of dead money on the books for no reason at all. none.

You may not like the reason, but there was one with merit.

Lock these guys up before they will demand even more money, or gasp... bolt to greener pastures.

It's easy to say we could have waited on Bello and KC in hindsight, as we could have extended them for less, now, or simply not extend them at all, if we waited, but...

1. Their contracts are not over and the results are still TBD, despite the outloook being very poor.

2. If the argument is over the philosophy as a whole, then we'll have to wait many year and judge the totality of all these extensions at that time- as a whole.

I know the Crochet extension looked like a no-brainer and that is apples to oranges, but using the same 2026 sample size as Bello, how does his extension look, now?

I wouldnt be writing KC off, either, but I agree it doesn't look too good.

Posted
5 minutes ago, iortiz said:

The Red Sox thought he could carry the team by himself and made the fans to believe that. Look how they built it. he was hitting 1 and now he’s hitting 3. Only proven players or very special ones hit that high in big market teams in a regular basis. You have the minors to develop players, at MLB level there’s no patience especially with that hype on him. Add to the equation that this team was in the conversations to make the WS, doesn’t help. 

I do think they counted on too much from ANthony, but it's not even May yet and you are acting like it's a foregone conclusion they made a big mistake, yet in an earlier post you said you think Anthony will bounce back.

They did add Contreras (not Alonso,) and you don't mention that.

I did hope we got a bigger bat to support Willson, Roman, Wilyer and Jarren, so I'm not thrilled with the idea of needing them all to do well, but we did spend on Suarez and Gray instead of a big bat, and the way Crochet & Bello have looked, where would we be without them and Alonso/Bregman/Bichette, instead?

We'd be complaining Brez left a hole in the rotation.

Posted
13 hours ago, notin said:

Anthony has a bit of a weakness for chasing curveballs in the dirt, but he will be fine.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/roman-anthony-701350?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
 

Especially when you remember that this June, some future top prospects that are older than Anthony will just be getting drafted…

It's frustrating, but I'm a fan of watching peripheral stats,  In his last 14 games, RA has a 14/14 K/W.  Even without my calculator, I am guessing that projects to 162/162 over 162 games.  His launch angle is too low, but everyone with his EV hits a pretty fair amount of HRs.  In 2025, Oneil Cruz, Wood, and Diaz are the players that resemble his EV/LA, and they averaged 25 HRs each.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I do think they counted on too much from ANthony, but it's not even May yet and you are acting like it's a foregone conclusion they made a big mistake, yet in an earlier post you said you think Anthony will bounce back.

They did add Contreras (not Alonso,) and you don't mention that.

I did hope we got a bigger bat to support Willson, Roman, Wilyer and Jarren, so I'm not thrilled with the idea of needing them all to do well, but we did spend on Suarez and Gray instead of a big bat, and the way Crochet & Bello have looked, where would we be without them and Alonso/Bregman/Bichette, instead?

We'd be complaining Brez left a hole in the rotation.

I have never said they made a big mistake on extending Anthony lol. 
 

All I’m saying he is officially a concern in my book that’s all. I expected wayyy more even this early. 
 

Also, they had to sign Suarez AND another big bat. JH has plenty of money. He has to spend. 

Posted
19 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

it is still money. and they had no reason to do this.

Everyone in baseball is doing this now, and actually do so earlier.

Posted
Just now, iortiz said:

I have never said they made a big mistake on extending Anthony lol. 
 

All I’m saying he is officially a concern in my book that’s all. I expected wayyy more even this early. 
 

Also, they had to sign Suarez AND another big bat. JH has plenty of money. He has to spend. 

The JH can and should spend more money is a separate issue.

I think you are putting too much stock into one month production. I'm concerned, too, but time will tell.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
25 minutes ago, iortiz said:

The Red Sox thought he could carry the team by himself and made the fans to believe that. Look how they built it. he was hitting 1 and now he’s hitting 3. Only proven players or very special ones hit that high in big market teams in a regular basis. You have the minors to develop players, at MLB level there’s no patience especially with that hype on him. Add to the equation that this team was in the conversations to make the WS, doesn’t help. 

A lot of this is your personal theory.  Nowhere did the Sox publicly state they wanted Anthony to “carry the team.”  If that were the case, why pursue Bregman?

More than likely they signed Anthony because they didn’t want to risk another Betts situation where their options were pay $300mill or trade.

And the “hype” wasn’t from the fans or the Red Sox.  Neutral third party scouting sources like Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus ranked him very highly on their own…

Old-Timey Member
Posted
15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I do think they counted on too much from ANthony, but it's not even May yet and you are acting like it's a foregone conclusion they made a big mistake, yet in an earlier post you said you think Anthony will bounce back.

They did add Contreras (not Alonso,) and you don't mention that.

I did hope we got a bigger bat to support Willson, Roman, Wilyer and Jarren, so I'm not thrilled with the idea of needing them all to do well, but we did spend on Suarez and Gray instead of a big bat, and the way Crochet & Bello have looked, where would we be without them and Alonso/Bregman/Bichette, instead?

We'd be complaining Brez left a hole in the rotation.

I think you should say we meaning you who counted too much on Anthony, and yes it’s only May, and the losses keep mounting do they not? Anthony could hit a ton from May on, but it’s not going to erase all the losses in April, and all the losses that are piling up now is what’s most important at the moment.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The JH can and should spend more money is a separate issue.

I think you are putting too much stock into one month production. I'm concerned, too, but time will tell.

We are in the same page. We are concerned basically because we’re expecting way more, especially from Anthony. 

Posted
1 minute ago, iortiz said:

We are in the same page. We are concerned basically because we’re expecting way more, especially from Anthony. 

The thing is, if Roman was at .700, I would not be concerned, so it's not like he's way off.

I think he will have a nice season and continue to improve as he nears prime.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
15 minutes ago, notin said:

A lot of this is your personal theory.  Nowhere did the Sox publicly state they wanted Anthony to “carry the team.”  If that were the case, why pursue Bregman?

More than likely they signed Anthony because they didn’t want to risk another Betts situation where their options were pay $300mill or trade.

And the “hype” wasn’t from the fans or the Red Sox.  Neutral third party scouting sources like Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus ranked him very highly on their own…

It’s not a personal theory. Look at the lineup. He basically has to replace Bregman/Devers production. No Contreras, no Abreu. Anthony. 
 

Exactly, everyone thought (still think) he’s going to be a superstar but thus far he’s been a bust. Common sense says he is a concern but hey… ppl can go to StatCast to feel better. 

Old-Timey Member
Posted
1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

The thing is, if Roman was at .700, I would not be concerned, so it's not like he's way off.

I think he will have a nice season and continue to improve as he nears prime.

Hopefully!

Posted
10 minutes ago, notin said:

And the “hype” wasn’t from the fans or the Red Sox.

This is a pet peeve of mine.  RS fans (and some other teams as well) are always talking about team-supplied hype.  While every team probably drops stories to their preferred writers, it is ultimately meaningless.  BA, MLB, and BP didn't rank RA #2, #2, and #1 because the RS called them and asked 'pretty please' rank our guy #1.

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