ABS accuracy

[notin]

17 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Speaking of dinosaurs, when I was a kid, a check swing only became a swinging strike if a batter "broke his wrists" -- which means turned the top hand down (like we all were taught to hit line drives) and the bottom hand up.

Hard to believe a guy could stop his swing and turn his torso so the bat crossed the entire plate and it was still called a ball. For evidence, watch any classic World Series games on MLB channel from the 1960s that they show in the winter.

I'm not advocating to go back to that, but I swear to the Church of Baseball that a check swing is absolutely not a strike if the batter flares a nostril (so sick of catchers saying "Check-check-check" like they're trying to leave every diner before they finish their cup of coffee).

With pitchers on every team throwing 100 mph, MLB knows it needs to do something to help offense. So watch how many batters get new life, longer counts and hittable pitches when Check-the-Check is gone.

The pros will never have to juice their balls again.

The biggest obstacle to a an automated check swing system is the complete lack of a definition of a check swing…

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

The biggest obstacle to a an automated check swing system is the complete lack of a definition of a check swing…

Seems like they'll have to add a rule.

[Behindenemylines]

The problem for teams is going to be when to use it. It has to be used in situations where it saves a scoring rally or ends one. Like yesterday when it ended a Brewers rally with a third strike called.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 hours ago, notin said:

The biggest obstacle to a an automated check swing system is the complete lack of a definition of a check swing…

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/03/mlb-to-test-check-swing-rule-changes-in-triple-a.html

"A check-swing challenge system requires an objective cutoff point. The threshold is whether the bat head breaks a 45° angle relative to the handle (essentially aligning with the opposite base line). Major League Baseball’s rulebook doesn’t have an official check-swing cutoff, instead leaving it at the umpire’s discretion as to whether the hitter offered.

As Longenhagen demonstrates with video, the 45° threshold is further along than what umpires have generally treated as the cutoff. That led hitters to successfully challenge a lot of calls last year. It appears that’s a deliberate consideration by the league. MLB’s memo notes a slight drop in the Florida State League strikeout rate after the check-swing challenge was implemented, 'having a positive impact on balls in play and encouraging more extensive testing at higher levels.' It’s not a huge effect but one that would turn more swinging strikes into balls than vice versa."

... in my opinion, there will be a much bigger effect in the majors, where pitchers presumably have better stuff and batters have less time to react (and egotistical umps have a bigger stage to punch fists in the air of inferiority).

Don't forget, catchers don't just call for Check-the-Check on what could be Strike Three, but any time a batter exhales. When a hitter gets down in the count he has to worry more about swinging at a pitcher's pitch, and when he doesn't swing and miss there can still be poor contact. But being ahead in the count ideally gives batters more hittable pitches or even mistake pitches they can crush.

So even if there are slightly less strikeouts, the new rule can result in considerably more contact, which can produce more baserunners, more run-scoring, and a more balanced game to watch.

[Kimmi]

I was not and am still not in favor of using the ABS system.  That said, I have to admit that I'm not hating it.  It is keeping me entertained and engaged for multiple reasons.

It has to be frustrating, though, for a player who really would like to challenge a call early in the game not to be able to do so because of the risk of not having that challenge for later in the game.  My beef with that is that a missed ball/strike call with no one on in the 2nd inning can impact the outcome of the game just as much as a missed ball/strike call with bases loaded in the 9th inning.

[JoeBrady]

32 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I was not and am still not in favor of using the ABS system.  That said, I have to admit that I'm not hating it.  It is keeping me entertained and engaged for multiple reasons.

It has to be frustrating, though, for a player who really would like to challenge a call early in the game not to be able to do so because of the risk of not having that challenge for later in the game.  My beef with that is that a missed ball/strike call with no one on in the 2nd inning can impact the outcome of the game just as much as a missed ball/strike call with bases loaded in the 9th inning.

First off, I agree that it entertaining.  This isn't like watching 8 different cuts of someone getting tagged at 2nd.  You tap your cap and a screen magically appears.  I think the fans will love it.

Past that, I like systems that have to played judiciously.  It would be insane to challenge a call, early in the game, no one on, and 2 outs.  But, if you think the umpire missed the call by three inches, then it makes sense to challenge.  But you could be wrong.

Maybe a bit akin to stealing 2nd down 5-0.  Ordinarily, not a good move.  But if you are 95% sure that the pitcher just lost track of you, then it becomes a lot more sensible.  IMHO, you just need to develop a comprehensive approach where you weigh the marginal cost/marginal benefit of each challenge.

[Kimmi]

On 4/13/2026 at 4:12 PM, JoeBrady said:

First off, I agree that it entertaining.  This isn't like watching 8 different cuts of someone getting tagged at 2nd.  You tap your cap and a screen magically appears.  I think the fans will love it.

Past that, I like systems that have to played judiciously.  It would be insane to challenge a call, early in the game, no one on, and 2 outs.  But, if you think the umpire missed the call by three inches, then it makes sense to challenge.  But you could be wrong.

Maybe a bit akin to stealing 2nd down 5-0.  Ordinarily, not a good move.  But if you are 95% sure that the pitcher just lost track of you, then it becomes a lot more sensible.  IMHO, you just need to develop a comprehensive approach where you weigh the marginal cost/marginal benefit of each challenge.

I completely understand why one wouldn't challenge a call early in the game with no one on and 2 outs.  That said, how do we know that a different call at that moment doesn't change the whole dynamic of that inning and perhaps even the game?  All I'm saying is that plays early in the game can and do impact the outcome of the game just as much as plays in the 9th inning.  The ones in the 9th inning are just more noticeable.

[jad]

It is not entertaining.  All it does is turn focus from players to individual umpires-- this isn't a damn umpire contest.  That's not why we watch.   Use ABS and stop the fake drama--'should wwe challenge or not?'--who gives a crap?  That's not a skill anyone cares about.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, jad said:

It is not entertaining.  All it does is turn focus from players to individual umpires-- this isn't a damn umpire contest.  That's not why we watch.   Use ABS and stop the fake drama--'should wwe challenge or not?'--who gives a crap?  That's not a skill anyone cares about.

I’m hoping this is a step in that direction.  There’s no need for umpires to keep performing the impossible task of monitoring the strike zone any more…