Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[FredLynn]

42 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

In 2020, no one wanted to knock over the cardboard fans in the stands.

Now look at 2019. The Red Sox hit 245 home runs and were only 10th in the majors. Two clubs hit over 300 HRs. Eight Red Sox hit 18 or more homers, including Vasquez with 23 and Bradley with 21. Mookie was 4th on the club with 29.

(I'm not saying the players were juiced in '19, but then the baseballs definitely were).

One 2026 site predicts three Red Sox to hit 18 HRs and lead the team this year.

I read somewhere that in the postseason it’s HRs that are king. We might make it to the playoffs, though I don’t think we have the offense to do it. But while last year just showing up for a guest appearance in October was fine (given the abysmal performances several years before that) this year I want more. We were just missing a few pieces to accomplish that and as usual management did a half assed job of it, fixing the pitching rotation but ignoring the lineup. The fans have every right to question the commitment to winning on the part of ownership.

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We didn't choose Gasper over Alonso. We chose Contreras. Gasper would still be here.

The funny part is, while I know the name, I had no idea who Gaspar was.  Now we have posters who think we picked Gaspar over Alonso & Bregman.

[harmony]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

This isn't true though. 

'23 Mariners pick #22, Philly pick #27, Mariners pick #29 (promotion incentive pick)

'24 Mariners pick #15, AZ pick #29

1 out 3 ain't bad I guess. 🫠

Thank you for the corrections.

By 2023 the draft order was no longer in reverse descending order of the previous year's regular season record (although the Mariners indeed had a better regular season record than the National League champions for three straight years).

In response to Hugh's remark "Why are you the way you are?", when inaccurate information is posted, corrections should be welcome.

Thanks again for the corrections.

[FredLynn]

49 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Suarez got about the same as Bregman.

I'd rather have $21M Gray + $18M Contreras than $35M Alonso, despite my call for quality over quantity.

Didn't you say earlier something to the effect that was just the opposite-that you could have done without Gray if we obtained help for our anemic lineup? That would certainly be the rational approach, though more expensive. But hey_the Henrys gotta eat too, right?

[FredLynn]

11 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The funny part is, while I know the name, I had no idea who Gaspar was.  Now we have posters who think we picked Gaspar over Alonso & Bregman.

It is totally accurate to state that we picked Gaspar but didn't pick Alonso, Schwarber, or Bregman. That should tell everyone here what the mindset of ownership is: cheap.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

The people who just say overpay to get this player or that, then complain when you are stuck with players like panda and masa that can't be traded.

He's a one-string banjo.  He'd rather get an expensive player than a good player.  And he'd rather get a HR hitter than a well-rounded one.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

because this entire decade, the Red Sox NEVER upgrade needs at the trade deadline.

That's not quite right.

• In 2020, we were out of it.
• In 2021, we added Schwarber
• In 2022-2024, while we weren't out of it, imho, it would've made no sense to give up prospects for a shot at the WC and a likely early exit.
• Even in 2025, we added May.  It looked like a good for his first three starts before going south.  IMO, Naylor was the obvious target, and that was a mistake.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

who are these "dregs" that you speak of?

Fred thinks Suarez, Contreras, Gray & Durbin are 'dregs'.  Some of his utterances are there merely to annoy.

[mvp 78]

55 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I mentioned Dalbec because he hit 25 home runs -- the same amount that Story led the team with last year -- and because Dalbec was 4th on a team that then went and added Schwarber.

ps. and if fans recall, the reason Boston almost went to the World Series in '21 is because the offense went berserk in the postseason... until it suddenly went cold with two wins to go.

HOU won the series because they limited the Sox to an average of 1 run over the last 3 games while the Astros averaged 8. That's quite a few HR's the Sox would have had to hit to make up for the bad pitching. It was just a complete collapse. 

[FredLynn]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

He's a one-string banjo.  He'd rather get an expensive player than a good player.  And he'd rather get a HR hitter than a well-rounded one.

Defending the indefensible has become an art form here to some. I find that in life, generally, you get what you pay for. Generally the more expensive players are more talented than dregs, dumpster products. Wouldn't you agree?

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's not quite right.

• In 2020, we were out of it.
• In 2021, we added Schwarber
• In 2022-2024, while we weren't out of it, imho, it would've made no sense to give up prospects for a shot at the WC and a likely early exit.
• Even in 2025, we added May.  It looked like a good for his first three starts before going south.  IMO, Naylor was the obvious target, and that was a mistake.

Nobody thought May was a reasonable pickup. There were calls at the '22-'24 deadlines to either sell or buy. Each season, the Sox kind of hedged their bets instead and the deadlines were wasted. Standing pat and doing nothing is just not a good strategy when you can get a trove of prospects for a reliever like Chris Martin or Kenley Jensen. 

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

who are these "dregs" that you speak of?

Just to correct Brady (again) those dregs to whom I refer include Gaspar and Durbin (lifetime OPS+ of 101). While Contreras and Gray are nice, better players were available, as everyone who is paying attention knows.

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Nobody thought May was a reasonable pickup. There were calls at the '22-'24 deadlines to either sell or buy. Each season, the Sox kind of hedged their bets instead and the deadlines were wasted. Standing pat and doing nothing is just not a good strategy when you can get a trove of prospects for a reliever like Chris Martin or Kenley Jensen. 

Exactly. Thats POOR MANAGEMENT. There comes a time to either (poop) or get off the pot. We did neither in those years other than declaring that we are going "full throttle". 
Liars.

[mvp 78]

35 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The funny part is, while I know the name, I had no idea who Gaspar was.  Now we have posters who think we picked Gaspar over Alonso & Bregman.

Nobody really thinks this.

[mvp 78]

Just now, FredLynn said:

Exactly. Thats POOR MANAGEMENT. There comes a time to either (poop) or get off the pot. We did neither in those years other than declaring that we are going "full throttle". 
Liars.

The '22 and '23 deadlines are why Bloom got fired. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I mentioned Dalbec because he hit 25 home runs -- the same amount that Story led the team with last year -- and because Dalbec was 4th on a team that then went and added Schwarber.

ps. and if fans recall, the reason Boston almost went to the World Series in '21 is because the offense went berserk in the postseason... until it suddenly went cold with two wins to go.

Dalbec need replacing, despite having 11 HRs on July 31st. He was hitting .216 with a .260 OBP and .659 OPS.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

it's still sickening to see the lack of effort.

Gotta disagree.  Just impo, I'd rather be chasing WSCs than WC slots.  We should've gone all-in last year, but in 2022-2024, I'd have been selling hard.  JDM, Eovaldi, Pivetta, TON, etc., would've all gotten decent prospects (top-150).  

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Nobody thought May was a reasonable pickup. There were calls at the '22-'24 deadlines to either sell or buy. Each season, the Sox kind of hedged their bets instead and the deadlines were wasted. Standing pat and doing nothing is just not a good strategy when you can get a trove of prospects for a reliever like Chris Martin or Kenley Jensen. 

I thought we should be sellers a couple of those years.

The year we got Garcia and Sims for the pen did not work out well, and we coulda gone bolder, but they were not really as bad as the D May deal.

In hindsight, yes.

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

The '22 and '23 deadlines are why Bloom got fired. 

Yup. And while Breslow is marginally better if the FLOPS don't make the playoffs he will likely be history too. I don't envy these GMs. They are being put in a corner by budget limitations imposed by ownership that makes it nearly impossible to construct a team that is consistent with revenue and competes for a ring nearly every year.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Gotta disagree.  Just impo, I'd rather be chasing WSCs than WC slots.  We should've gone all-in last year, but in 2022-2024, I'd have been selling hard.  JDM, Eovaldi, Pivetta, TON, etc., would've all gotten decent prospects (top-150).  

We should have done one ot the other in '24. TOTAL Sell in '22 and '23.

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

Gotta disagree.  Just impo, I'd rather be chasing WSCs than WC slots.  We should've gone all-in last year, but in 2022-2024, I'd have been selling hard.  JDM, Eovaldi, Pivetta, TON, etc., would've all gotten decent prospects (top-150).  

We should have gone all in this year. We have our ace. We have a very good #2 and a solid rotation behind him and a respectable pen. We have a budding superstar. All we really needed was one more excellent offensive force (ideally two, but one would have been OK) to make the team formidable. Now we are likely a fourth place team.

[JoeBrady]

13 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Generally the more expensive players are more talented than dregs, dumpster products. Wouldn't you agree?

It's neither.  The best approach, imo, is to attain the most WAR for the money available.  Schwarber + Alonso project to ~6.2 fWAR for $61M.  Suarez, Contreras, Gray & Durbin project to 11 fWAR for $65M, plus some minor prospects.

[FredLynn]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's neither.  The best approach, imo, is to attain the most WAR for the money available.  Schwarber + Alonso project to ~6.2 fWAR for $61M.  Suarez, Contreras, Gray & Durbin project to 11 fWAR for $65M, plus some minor prospects.

Sorry. You're wrong again-if you value winning rings, which is really what counts (and what you stated YOU personally value most). WAR is a theoretical prediction that is high on assumptions and devoid of current performance. Saying that player X has a WAR of 5 for 2026 has no bearing on how that player will actually perform. If a team needs one player to fill a major hole, as we did-and still do, I don't care what his theoretical performance analysis predicts. I look at what he has actually done in the past. Schwarber and Alonso have a long history of hitting the ball out of the park. We don't have many players in that category-none, really. Anthony has potential, but he will be pitched around all year because Bresslow failed to get a player to protect him.

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's neither.  The best approach, imo, is to attain the most WAR for the money available.  Schwarber + Alonso project to ~6.2 fWAR for $61M.  Suarez, Contreras, Gray & Durbin project to 11 fWAR for $65M, plus some minor prospects.

That doesnt answer the question asked

[notin]

10 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Your criticisms have no weight because you have admitted many times that our cheapskate owner should be spending more. 
As in signing talented FAs like Alonso or Schwarber. When was the last time Henry opened his wallet and agreed to sign a high priced FA? You know-top talent. 
Thats my point. 

Last month - Ranger Suarez…

[notin]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's neither.  The best approach, imo, is to attain the most WAR for the money available.  Schwarber + Alonso project to ~6.2 fWAR for $61M.  Suarez, Contreras, Gray & Durbin project to 11 fWAR for $65M, plus some minor prospects.

Getting Schwarber also means sitting one of Duran, Anthony, Abreu or Rafaela.  Did you subtract that out?

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Last month - Ranger Suarez…

Yup. That was a good move, a rare one. Those kinds of moves are few and  far between though. Instead we end up with dregs like Andrew Monasterio, Anthony Seigler, Caleb Durbin, IKF, Tsung-Che Cheng, and Brendan Rodgers. As I wrote, I don't really mind those dumpster products as long as we complete the roster with the talented players we need. That didn't happen. Its going to be a long long season unless our rotation is lights out because our lineup scares nobody.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Sorry. You're wrong again-if you value winning rings, which is really what counts. WAR is a theoretical prediction that is high on assumptions and devoid of current performance. Saying that player X has a WAR of 5 for 2026 has no bearing on how that player will actually perform. If a team needs one player to fill a major hole, as we did-and still do, I don't care what his theoretical performance analysis predicts. I look at what he has actually done in the past. Schwarber and Alonso have a long history of hitting the ball out of the park. We don't have many players in that category-none, really. Anthony has potential, but he will be pitched around all year because Bresslow failed to get a player to protect him.

Like MVP has said in the past, WAR doesnt take roster/team building into account, which you are also kind of agreeing with here.  I would agree with that , but I would be shy to agree that a retrospective view of past makes theoretical performance predictions fully dismissable.

If I look at Roman Anthonys projected WAR or WRC+ or OPS or RBI totals, I dont immediately dismiss them because hes never done a full season.  I take them with more "gain of salt" because sophmores can slump, get hurt, and sure - the chance of superstardom from a second year player who didnt play a full rookie season would be generally lower than the chance of superstardom from an established superstar (holding many things equal for apples-to-apples comparison). 

To me the issue here is opportunity cost.  This team looks like it has/had the potential to jump from T2 baseball team to T1, and I dont think we've done that.  And I can understand being disappointed about that.

Right now , this team has about a 59% of making the playoffs, and I do think thats a lot because of the  expanded format.  But you could argue that the expanded format leaves a lot of teams/owners complacent.  Because there is nothing worse than falling out of contention early, but with so many teams making the playoffs, thats kind of hard to do.  Thats also why deadlines arent what they use to be becasue there are just less sellers because its easier to make playoffs due to expanded format.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Yup. That was a good move, a rare one. Those kinds of moves are few and  far between though. Instead we end up with dregs like Andrew Monasterio, Anthony Seigler, Caleb Durbin, IKF, Tsung-Che Cheng, and Brendan Rodgers. As I wrote, I don't really mind those dumpster products as long as we complete the roster with the talented players we need. That didn't happen. Its going to be a long long season unless our rotation is lights out because our lineup scares nobody.

The rotation will be lights out.  But the lack of offense puts a ceiling on the team IMO.  Caleb Durbin wasnt a dumpster dive.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Getting Schwarber also means sitting one of Duran, Anthony, Abreu or Rafaela.  Did you subtract that out?

You can't argue with someone who thinks the difference between Alonso and Contreras + Gray is a possible ring to a sure fire 4th place finish.