Bregman to sign 5 yr 175 million deal with the Cubs

[Randy Red Sox]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I wonder of "organizational philosophy" is JH or the whole group or just Brez.

Just JH alone

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, if you are bidding in the FA market, you're going to have to ignore your internal models and overpay when you are competing with other bidders. If you're being rational all the time, all the good players will go elsewhere and you won't retain your players are bring on new ones. 

I'm fine with an overpay, when needed, and $165M/5 was a major overpay.

I'd have given $5M more than BAL for Alonso, so I'm not against overpays- just gross ones. I'd have been okay with $165M/5, but that was already past what I'd have paid by a year and $3M AAV, so what is the limit?

Had he signed with us for $170M/5 or even $175M/5, I'd be glad we kept him, but I also think JH will probably be stingy, going forward, and the signing would be prohibitive on future adds,

It sucks he's gone, but if we trade Phillips and Sandlin for Paredes, I'll be happier than Bregman at $180M/5.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm fine with an overpay, when needed, and $165M/5 was a major overpay.

I'd have given $5M more than BAL for Alonso, so I'm not against overpays- just gross ones. I'd have been okay with $165M/5, but that was already past what I'd have paid by a year and $3M AAV, so what is the limit?

Had he signed with us for $170M/5 or even $175M/5, I'd be glad we kept him, but I also think JH will probably be stingy, going forward, and the signing would be prohibitive on future adds,

It sucks he's gone, but if we trade Phillips and Sandlin for Paredes, I'll be happier than Bregman at $180M/5.

yes, it would have been an overpay, but if you act rational when it comes to signing free agents, you'll never sign a free agent. 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yes, it would have been an overpay, but if you act rational when it comes to signing free agents, you'll never sign a free agent. 

I fully understand that, and I think $150M/5 was highly irrational. $165M was irrational enough. More was absurd.

I've said I'd have offered Alonso $5M more, so it's not about unwillingness to overpay. It's about a certain level of irrationality and who you choose to do it for.

I was also for signing Polanco for more than what was offered. That one could have back-fired.

I'm hoping we overpay for Suarez, but it's not going to be by $30M more than he deserves AND 1 to 2 years too long.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yes, it would have been an overpay, but if you act rational when it comes to signing free agents, you'll never sign a free agent. 

Which would be just fine with JH.

[Randy Red Sox]

42 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I fully understand that, and I think $150M/5 was highly irrational. $165M was irrational enough. More was absurd.

I've said I'd have offered Alonso $5M more, so it's not about unwillingness to overpay. It's about a certain level of irrationality and who you choose to do it for.

I was also for signing Polanco for more than what was offered. That one could have back-fired.

I'm hoping we overpay for Suarez, but it's not going to be by $30M more than he deserves AND 1 to 2 years too long.

1 yr for about 12 million is about the max the Sox might be in for

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

1 yr for about 12 million is about the max the Sox might be in for

Funny.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm fine with an overpay, when needed, and $165M/5 was a major overpay.

I'd have given $5M more than BAL for Alonso, so I'm not against overpays- just gross ones. I'd have been okay with $165M/5, but that was already past what I'd have paid by a year and $3M AAV, so what is the limit?

Had he signed with us for $170M/5 or even $175M/5, I'd be glad we kept him, but I also think JH will probably be stingy, going forward, and the signing would be prohibitive on future adds,

It sucks he's gone, but if we trade Phillips and Sandlin for Paredes, I'll be happier than Bregman at $180M/5.

The Bregman deal was less of an overpay than the Alonso one. 

Alonso last 3 years: 8.5 fWAR

Bregman last 3 years: 12.1 fWAR

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Bregman deal was less of an overpay than the Alonso one. 

Alonso last 3 years: 8.5 fWAR

Bregman last 3 years: 12.1 fWAR

That's one way to look at it. I thought Alonso fit our power need, and while there are many ways to build a WS team, the last 4 Sox ring teams had 2 power bats. This one has none, and Breggie added would still have left us with none.

It's a close call, but to me Alonso's offense has been more consistent, and he's a little younger. OPS+ last 5 yrs:

134 Alonso (133>146>123>122>144)

123 Bregman (113>134>122>116>128)

The defense part goes heavily to Breggie, and it's harder to add a good 3Bman than a 1Bman, as the Contreras trade showed.

We have Contreras, now, anyway, so it matters little. I'm not upset about Alonso, either, because of Contreras.

If we lose out on Suarez or trading for a #2, I'll look back at Polanco as the one we could have done something about- maybe Suarez, too.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Bregman deal was less of an overpay than the Alonso one. 

Alonso last 3 years: 8.5 fWAR

Bregman last 3 years: 12.1 fWAR

HR. Alonso 118.      Bregman 69

RBI. Alonso 332.     Bregman 235

Just to simplify things, and I’m going for Alonso.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

134 Alonso (133>146>123>122>144)

123 Bregman (113>134>122>116>128)

That's ignoring how horrible Alonso's glove is and how good Bregman's glove is. Alonso is probably set to be a DH in 2-3 years. Bregman can stay at 3b for the full term of his deal, which is why he's going to be paid more. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

That's ignoring how horrible Alonso's glove is and how good Bregman's glove is. Alonso is probably set to be a DH in 2-3 years. Bregman can stay at 3b for the full term of his deal, which is why he's going to be paid more. 

I mentioned the defense, so how is that "ignoring" it?

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's one way to look at it. I thought Alonso fit our power need, and while there are many ways to build a WS team, the last 4 Sox ring teams had 2 power bats. This one has none, and Breggie added would still have left us with none.

It's a close call, but to me Alonso's offense has been more consistent, and he's a little younger. OPS+ last 5 yrs:

134 Alonso (133>146>123>122>144)

123 Bregman (113>134>122>116>128)

The defense part goes heavily to Breggie, and it's harder to add a good 3Bman than a 1Bman, as the Contreras trade showed.

We have Contreras, now, anyway, so it matters little. I'm not upset about Alonso, either, because of Contreras.

If we lose out on Suarez or trading for a #2, I'll look back at Polanco as the one we could have done something about- maybe Suarez, too.

Do you think they would have offered Alonso more if they knew they wouldn’t get Bregman?

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

Do you think they would have offered Alonso more if they knew they wouldn’t get Bregman?

Hell no. They go by their models. Why would they ever disagree with their models? 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

 Bregman can stay at 3b for the full term of his deal, which is why he's going to be paid more. 

I agree he deserves more, and my suggested top offer reflected that.

I feel our need for power is overwhelming.

Offering $5M more to Alonso is $160M/5.

I said I was fine with our $165M/6 for Bregman and would not have been upset if we matched the $175M/5 deal he took.

I never said Alonso deserves more money than Breggie.

 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Do you think they would have offered Alonso more if they knew they wouldn’t get Bregman?

They had to know they might miss out on Breggie. Mt worry now is what is their next plan?

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Hell no. They go by their models. Why would they ever disagree with their models? 

But I think the model on Alonso was with the idea they would get Bregman.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree he deserves more, and my suggested top offer reflected that.

I feel our need for power is overwhelming.

Offering $5M more to Alonso is $160M/5.

I said I was fine with our $165M/6 for Bregman and would not have been upset if we matched the $175M/5 deal he took.

I never said Alonso deserves more money than Breggie.

 

I think Alonso’s bat would have looked better in the BO than Bregman, and he would have produced more. 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

But I think the model on Alonso was with the idea they would get Bregman.

I disagree. They don't budge on anyone. Every player resides in their own vacuum. 

[mvp 78]

They said they wanted to focus on defense this offseason. Why would they upfront sign Alonso? If they signed Alonso and Suarez, the IF defense would be a nightmare, especially with Story's regression. 

[Old Red]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

They said they wanted to focus on defense this offseason. Why would they upfront sign Alonso? If they signed Alonso and Suarez, the IF defense would be a nightmare, especially with Story's regression. 

How did the IF defense look last year to start the season? 3B was better,  but how about 2B, and 1B? Why would they have a zoom meeting with Alonso, and then a face to face if they wasn’t interested half hearted as the offer was.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Do you think they would have offered Alonso more if they knew they wouldn’t get Bregman?

Probably.  But the Orioles offer was pretty far ahead of us, so not as confident it would have been enough more to make us serious bidders.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Hell no. They go by their models. Why would they ever disagree with their models? 

YOu think they are this rigid?

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree he deserves more, and my suggested top offer reflected that.

I feel our need for power is overwhelming.

Offering $5M more to Alonso is $160M/5.

I said I was fine with our $165M/6 for Bregman and would not have been upset if we matched the $175M/5 deal he took.

I never said Alonso deserves more money than Breggie.

 

Now you are overlooking the deferrals, though.

[drewski6]

Alonso and Bregman (and Schwarber) , total packages were all very close. Yes Breg cleared 170m but enough deferred to make the hit and present value closer to 30-31 per.

This is a triple down that a player of around this caliber in their early 30s (ish) gets around 5 yrs at a little over 30 plus annum.  Thats fair market value for a FA of this tier.

If you see this moves as gross overpayment, then either you are hoping for a market correction or you are unwilling to shop at the second tier of free agency, which the sox may be unwilling to do as well.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

How did the IF defense look last year to start the season? 3B was better,  but how about 2B, and 1B? Why would they have a zoom meeting with Alonso, and then a face to face if they wasn’t interested half hearted as the offer was.

Their goal was to make the IF defense better this year. Signing Alonso and Suarez would not meet that goal.

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

YOu think they are this rigid?

Yes.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

But I think the model on Alonso was with the idea they would get Bregman.

I can't see the Sox basing any model on the surety that they will outbid everybody for anybody.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Now you are overlooking the deferrals, though.

I mentioned them and the no trade clause, earlier.

I'd have given deferrals to Alonso, too, if needed.

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Their goal was to make the IF defense better this year. Signing Alonso and Suarez would not meet that goal.

Indeed, that was one goal, but so was adding a big bat.

Contreras helped with the corner IF defense, and they probably thinks he has enough power to at least make up for the Breggie loss, but who makes up for losing Devers?

I'd rather have Bregman than Suarez. Alonso and Suarez would be about the same AAV as Contreras and Bregman, but the D would be way worse, granted.