Tarik Skubal's Availability Poses An Interesting Red Sox Dilemma: Patience or Aggression?

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

Taylor ward turns 32 in a few weeks, and hit 36 bombs with 103 RBI last year, which probably is enticing to Baltimore, which gave up a often injured SP.

Yes, he is a very good player with more HR power. His SLG% finally passed Duran's for a season, too.

Duran did worse than the year before despite being younger.

There are certainly advantages and pluses for both guys, but Duran has "centerpiece" value. The Ward trade was one for one!

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, he is a very good player with more HR power. His SLG% finally passed Duran's for a season, too.

Duran did worse than the year before despite being younger.

There are certainly advantages and pluses for both guys, but Duran has "centerpiece" value. The Ward trade was one for one!

Ward would be the type of player the Red Sox would pick up like with TO. I don’t think Duran has as much value as you think he does, and Duran had more value last offseason most likely.

[mvp 78]

Ward has 6.1 less fWAR than Duran over the past 3 years and is a FA after this season. Duran is a better player and controllable for 3 more years. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Malcolm White said:

Abreu platoons because Cora platoons him.  He'll never get better sitting on the bench. Maybe if Ref retires Cora will realize Abreu is an everyday player.

Duran plays every day because Cora plays him every day, even with Duran's putrid .600 OPS vs. LHP. Abreu's was .676, btw, and Duran's is .620 career.  

Between that, and the delta in salary (Duran's $7.7M vs. Abreu's pre-arb $1M), Abreu's far superior defense and arm, plus better power, and I don't know why so many people think Duran is so much more valuable, esp. as a LF.  

Nothing against Duran, but I'd pump the brakes on thinking he's the centerpiece for a #2 starter without throwing in a lot extra. OTOH, a pre-arb Abreu makes ANY team's defense better for less than a mil a year.

The thing is Abreu never hit well against LHP even when he was exposed to them in the minors.  What makes Abreu different than the other platoon LHB who can't hit LHP???

[mvp 78]

5 of Ward's HR's were at MiLB stadiums. He had 15 HR's in LAA, but only carried a 666 OPS there (188 BA, 270 OBP, 396 SLG)! Not sure he's going to have a great time in BAL.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Ward would be the type of player the Red Sox would pick up like with TO. I don’t think Duran has as much value as you think he does, and Duran had more value last offseason most likely.

I agree that Duran had more value after last year. He still has a lot.

I know you don't value WAR, but the differences are stark:

2024>2025

Ward: BWAR 2.3>2.7

Duran: BWAR 8.7>4.7 (sure, a drop off but still 2 above Ward.)

fWAR

Ward: 2.8>2.9

Duran: 6.8>3.9 (despite a major drop off, still 1 up on Ward.)

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ward has 6.1 less fWAR than Duran over the past 3 years and is a FA after this season. Duran is a better player and controllable for 3 more years. 

It's not even close.

Ward was traded one on one, and Duran can't even be a "centerpiece?"

[TedYazPapiMookie]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Early, Duran and Arias for Skubal? I'd do it if the Sox were given a 72 hour window to negotiate an extension or call the deal off. 

Skubal needs to sign an extension as part of the deal, but the players are completely wrong.  First, Early will be as good or better than Skubal in two years.  Tolle is more expendable.  Duran is critical to the success of the Red Sox as the CF of the future.  Abreu is highly over-rated and the misguided in the industry think he's better than Duran so swap in Abreu the platoon hitter with very limited defensive skills despite the bogus GG we need Rafaela in RF, Arias is a good choice since he has no future thanks to Mayer BUT Boston is better off including the often injured Mayer with the big rep and poor performance so far in Boston for Arias.  

From a reputation perspective this is more talent than what you offered.  Personally, I wouldn't do it if I was Detroit without getting more talent.  Add Garcia to secure the deal.  Garcia has no future in Boston either due to the depth of outfield talent.  These four should capture Skubal if he can get the deal he wants.  It should cost more than the Devers money but would lock Boston in contention for the division title and possible world series for years to come.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

First, Early will be as good or better than Skubal in two years. 

No. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Abreu is highly over-rated and the misguided in the industry think he's better than Duran

All reports are that Abreu is the least desired OFer by other teams behind Duran and Rafaela.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he's the guy to go because he has the most value. Per reports, teams were calling about him and Rafaela, more than they were about Abreu. Maybe due to health, maybe not? 

Maybe due to Anthony having the highest potential, Rafaela having all-star potential and Duran has already been an all-star while playing centerfield.  Abreu may be the 5th or 6th best outfielder in the Red Sox organization BUT is falsely touted as one of the top three.  Take advantage of the fake news suggesting more skills than he has and use his fake value to minimize the loss for the Red Sox in any deal.  Duran in centerfield batting lead-off is worth much, much more than the platoon hitting GG right fielder who leads the outfield in errors.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Arias is a good choice since he has no future thanks to Mayer BUT Boston is better off including the often injured Mayer with the big rep and poor performance so far in Boston for Arias.  

I don't believe Arias is blocked by Mayer as Mayer could 3B/SS and Arias could play SS/2B. Arias won't be ready until late 27 most likely, so there isn't much overlap with Story. 

If they deal Mayer this offseason, it's one more hole Breslow has to fill and it would probably be with a contract much larger than Mayer's. I think the FO would rather keep Mayer, but who knows. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Take advantage of the fake news suggesting more skills than he has and use his fake value to minimize the loss for the Red Sox in any deal. 

I don't think DET is scouting via messageboards, Twitter and radio callers. If they are, Breslow could score a coup. 

[notin]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

All reports are that Abreu is the least desired OFer by other teams behind Duran and Rafaela.

Really?  The 3 WAR outfielder with 2 GGs and 25 HR pop is the least desirable? Either I’m overrating him or teams like Rafaela more than I expected…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Really?  The 3 WAR outfielder with 2 GGs and 25 HR pop is the least desirable? Either I’m overrating him or teams like Rafaela more than I expected…

That's who teams were calling for at the deadline. Maybe it was due to health? I think if teams were calling for Abreu, he would have been gone last offseason. 

[Old Red]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree that Duran had more value after last year. He still has a lot.

I know you don't value WAR, but the differences are stark:

2024>2025

Ward: BWAR 2.3>2.7

Duran: BWAR 8.7>4.7 (sure, a drop off but still 2 above Ward.)

fWAR

Ward: 2.8>2.9

Duran: 6.8>3.9 (despite a major drop off, still 1 up on Ward.)

Obviously Baltimore is interested in the HR power, and the 103 RBI.You can throw all the other things out there all you want. Last year they signed TO for most likely his HR power. HR, and RBI, and I think it’s just that simple.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think DET is scouting via messageboards, Twitter and radio callers. If they are, Breslow could score a coup. 

Plus, Arias might not be ML ready until Story's control ends.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's who teams were calling for at the deadline. Maybe it was due to health? I think if teams were calling for Abreu, he would have been gone last offseason. 

Maybe other teams see him like the Red Sox do as a platoon player. Plus he’s had some injuries the past few years.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Obviously Baltimore is interested in the HR power, and the 103 RBI.You can throw all the other things out there all you want. Last year they signed TO for most likely his HR power. HR, and RBI, and I think it’s just that simple.

I'm not suggesting we could have traded Duran for GRod. I was just using Ward as an example of what someone paid for a good OF'er who does not defend too well and is not getting any younger. Ward also has one year of control at almost $13M. Duran has 3 and makes $7.7M, next year.

You think Duran brings back less than Taylor Ward did? Plus, Ward was not the "centerpiece:" he was the whole package by himself.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Obviously Baltimore is interested in the HR power, and the 103 RBI.You can throw all the other things out there all you want. Last year they signed TO for most likely his HR power. HR, and RBI, and I think it’s just that simple.

If they liked RBI, O’Neill was a really bad choice.  31Hrs but only 61 RBIs .  He drove in himself more than all his teammates combined.  That’s not easy to do…

[Hugh2]

I don't think Durans value has dropped off as much as people think it has. 

He was still a 4 WAR player last year, That still makes him a fringe all star level player.  The knock on him the year prior was he had a career year and he might not ever do that again, now a team might see a 3.5-4 war as more of a floor for him.  

I think by far the drop off in his value is mostly just having one less year of control. 

[drewski6]

56 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Skubal needs to sign an extension as part of the deal, but the players are completely wrong.  First, Early will be as good or better than Skubal in two years.  Tolle is more expendable.  Duran is critical to the success of the Red Sox as the CF of the future.  Abreu is highly over-rated and the misguided in the industry think he's better than Duran so swap in Abreu the platoon hitter with very limited defensive skills despite the bogus GG we need Rafaela in RF, Arias is a good choice since he has no future thanks to Mayer BUT Boston is better off including the often injured Mayer with the big rep and poor performance so far in Boston for Arias.  

From a reputation perspective this is more talent than what you offered.  Personally, I wouldn't do it if I was Detroit without getting more talent.  Add Garcia to secure the deal.  Garcia has no future in Boston either due to the depth of outfield talent.  These four should capture Skubal if he can get the deal he wants.  It should cost more than the Devers money but would lock Boston in contention for the division title and possible world series for years to come.

Abreu has 2 gold gloves.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

If they liked RBI, O’Neill was a really bad choice.  31Hrs but only 61 RBIs .  He drove in himself more than all his teammates combined.  That’s not easy to do…

I think his HR power is what enticed Baltimore to go after him the MOST just like with Ward hoping more RBI would come along.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think by far the drop off in his value is mostly just having one less year of control. 

Agreed.

He has one less year than Abreu, who is still pre-arb, so the money aspect means a lot to teams that have tight budgets. While Duran is making $7.7M, that's a lot for some teams and would make them prefer Abreu, all by itself.

Abreu is much better on defense than Duran and plays one of the most difficult positions/parks in MLB.

Abreu has more power, and that is one area the team lacks.

Rafaela has 3 more years of control than Duran at a pretty low cost. Some teams might not view it as "low," especially the last 2-3 years. He also has an option year in 2032. A cheap team could trade him after 3-4 seasons and still get more years than Duran. He's a GG CF'er but is way behind JD in batting value. My guess is there may be a wide variance in how different GMs value him.

I misspoke when I said Duran is in decline, but the risk it there, and he did drop off from 2024. The ghost of Jake lurks.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Abreu has 2 gold gloves.

Fake News.

lmao.

[drewski6]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

Really?  The 3 WAR outfielder with 2 GGs and 25 HR pop is the least desirable? Either I’m overrating him or teams like Rafaela more than I expected…

Arent you the one with the BTV subscription?

Yes Abreu is like 26, Cedanne is like 30 and Duran is like 50 (I think)

Cedanne is so high because the team has him under control for so long.

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't think Durans value has dropped off as much as people think it has. 

He was still a 4 WAR player last year, That still makes him a fringe all star level player.  The knock on him the year prior was he had a career year and he might not ever do that again, now a team might see a 3.5-4 war as more of a floor for him.  

I think by far the drop off in his value is mostly just having one less year of control. 

Yes, but that final line is significant.  Like 75 trade value units to 50.  But kind of exactly, he lost 1/3 of his trade value because he has 2 yrs of control now vs 3 at this point last year. The math maths.

[Old Red]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not suggesting we could have traded Duran for GRod. I was just using Ward as an example of what someone paid for a good OF'er who does not defend too well and is not getting any younger. Ward also has one year of control at almost $13M. Duran has 3 and makes $7.7M, next year.

You think Duran brings back less than Taylor Ward did? Plus, Ward was not the "centerpiece:" he was the whole package by himself.

As I said before that obviously Baltimore was interested in the Power aspect with Ward, first, and foremost. What do the Red Sox need most in the lineup? Power, and production first, and foremost. If they can play D great, but power, and production is Most important. I have No idea what Duran would bring back. So far nothing.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yes, but that final line is significant.  Like 75 trade value units to 50.  But kind of exactly, he lost 1/3 of his trade value because he has 2 yrs of control now vs 3 at this point last year. The math maths.

Agree. Duran has 1 less year of control, which is very important, and didn’t have as good a year in the field.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Yes, but that final line is significant.  Like 75 trade value units to 50.  But kind of exactly, he lost 1/3 of his trade value because he has 2 yrs of control now vs 3 at this point last year. The math maths.

Yup.

49.5 Duran (3 yrs at $7.7M now + 2 arbs)

31`.0 Rafaela (7 yrs + option at low cost that rises)

26.2 Abreu (pre arb then 3 arbs)

Value per year above salary cost:

16.5 Duran

6.5 Abeu

3.5 Rafaela