The Time Has Come: Why the Red Sox Must Trade from Their Outfield Depth This Offseason

[drewski6]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While saying Duran has "3 strikes" I did not intend to minimize the fact that he is a way better hitter tha Rafaela. That is a clear strike one on Ceddanne. Yes, batting is more important, so count it as strike 2 or even 3. That makes em even.

I also failed to mention Rafaela's utility value.

Do trends matter in the scheme of age projections?

fWAR 2024>2025

6.8>4.2 Duran (-2.6)

1.0> 3.8 Rafaela (+2.8)

n/a> 3.0 Anthony

3.1>2.4 Abreu (-0.7 IN SLIGHTLY less playing time)

bWAR

8.7>4.7 Duran (-4.0 and equal to Ceddanne in '25)

2.8>4.7 Rafaela (+1.9)

3.4>3.2 Abreu (-0.2)

n/a>3.1 Anthony

 

Yes trends matter, and for funsies, show me first half 2025 vs second half 2025 on Cedannes WAR and oWAR (dont care which source)

With the 3 strikes and your out comment, I interpreted your comment to mean that its (practically) case closed, Duran will (almost assuredly) get traded and Cedanne (very likely )wont for 3 reasons:
 
1. Age, 2. Control, 3 Defense.

And Im saying the reason why Duran is more likely than Cedanne (by a lot) to get traded (and I agree he is) is for one main reason, thats none of your 3

1. Trade Value

Cedanne is not getting you Lodolo, for example.

[JoeBrady]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yes trends matter, and for funsies, show me first half 2025 vs second half 2025 on Cedannes WAR and oWAR (dont care which source)

With the 3 strikes and your out comment, I interpreted your comment to mean that its (practically) case closed, Duran will (almost assuredly) get traded and Cedanne (very likely )wont for 3 reasons:
 
1. Age, 2. Control, 3 Defense.

And Im saying the reason why Duran is more likely than Cedanne (by a lot) to get traded (and I agree he is) is for one main reason, thats none of your 3

1. Trade Value

Cedanne is not getting you Lodolo, for example.

No chance I'd ever trade Ceddanne for Lodolo.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Yes trends matter, and for funsies, show me first half 2025 vs second half 2025 on Cedannes WAR and oWAR (dont care which source)

With the 3 strikes and your out comment, I interpreted your comment to mean that its (practically) case closed, Duran will (almost assuredly) get traded and Cedanne (very likely )wont for 3 reasons:
 
1. Age, 2. Control, 3 Defense.

And Im saying the reason why Duran is more likely than Cedanne (by a lot) to get traded (and I agree he is) is for one main reason, thats none of your 3

1. Trade Value

Cedanne is not getting you Lodolo, for example.

I meant in my mind Duran is the one to be traded, and not just because of the 3 things I mentioned, or the trends and defense or years of control or budget costs or ...

He has higher trade value, because he has had better numbers. We'll get more for him. That's a big reason he's #1 on my list.

I get the fact that we need offense and trading one of of our top 3 offense guys after losing Devers and Bregman seems counterintuitive, but for the reasons I mentioned and some umentioned, I'd look to trade him not the others.

If someone offers similar returns for Abreu or Rafaela, I'm all ears. I'm even okay trading two for the right returns, and no on trading either for prospects, unless they are flipped for Duran, KMarte or the like.

I realize my suggestion could backfire.

As for Rafaela's decline?

.702 first 78 games

.714 last 78 games

Duran:

.714 first 78 games

.842 last 79 games

That was a nice finish, unless you look at just Sept:

.692 Duran

.669 Ceddanne

They both kinda tailed off.

[Duran Is The Man]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I meant in my mind Duran is the one to be traded, and not just because of the 3 things I mentioned, or the trends and defense or years of control or budget costs or ...

He has higher trade value, because he has had better numbers. We'll get more for him. That's a big reason he's #1 on my list.

I get the fact that we need offense and trading one of of our top 3 offense guys after losing Devers and Bregman seems counterintuitive, but for the reasons I mentioned and some umentioned, I'd look to trade him not the others.

If someone offers similar returns for Abreu or Rafaela, I'm all ears. I'm even okay trading two for the right returns, and no on trading either for prospects, unless they are flipped for Duran, KMarte or the like.

I realize my suggestion could backfire.

As for Rafaela's decline?

.702 first 78 games

.714 last 78 games

Duran:

.714 first 78 games

.842 last 79 games

That was a nice finish, unless you look at just Sept:

.692 Duran

.669 Ceddanne

They both kinda tailed off.

i know you probably don't believe me, but i'm not against trading Duran. my problem is that i have ZERO confidence in the Sox front office trading him for anyone worth having, after seeing them trade Betts, Devers and Sale for .....garbage, 

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i know you probably don't believe me, but i'm not against trading Duran. my problem is that i have ZERO confidence in the Sox front office trading him for anyone worth having, after seeing them trade Betts, Devers and Sale for .....garbage, 

I believe you.

I will say, Brez has a better trade record than Bloom, which is not hard to do.

Sure, there is the Sale and Priester trades, but there have been more good ones...

Crochet

Narvaez

Slaten

Fitts, Weissert +

O'Neill

Priester (for Nick Yorke)

Pending: Fajardo, Dandlin, Holobetz/YRod

Anyway, if these guys suck at trades, then they'll blow an Abreu trade, instead.

 

[harmony]

5 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

No chance I'd ever trade Ceddanne for Lodolo.

FWIW Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Ceddanne Rafaela a surplus value of $31 million and Nick Lodolo a surplus value of $30.8 million.

[moonslav59]

I don't want Duran traded because I don't think he's very good. I want to trade him precisely because I think we need a really good SP2, 2Bman or 3Bman, and we need to give talent to get talent.

We have 4 OF'ers. I went through my reasons why I feel Duran is the one that should be traded, but it's not based on him being the worst of the 4. Control years, age, defense, trends and current trade value are all factors. Of course, offense, speed and other factors support keeping him, and I acknowledge that, often. It's not a clear cut choice to make, and if some team offers the same or more for Rafaela or Abreu, I would reassess my position. I don't think they would.

Now, some teams might want Abreu or Rafaela, because of the cost or years of control, as compared to Duran, and teams that want Duran are likely in "win now" mode, so it's not always going to look like a perfect trade match. I've mentioned a 3 team trade as a work-around on that aspect. I'm not sure it can be worked out.

I will say, I am 99.9% certain we trade an OF'er. (90% it's Duran, Abreu or Rafaela.)

45% Duran

33% Abreu

15% Rafaela

7% Campbell or Garcia

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, harmony said:

FWIW Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Ceddanne Rafaela a surplus value of $31 million and Nick Lodolo a surplus value of $30.8 million.

I'd do it. Our offense would improve. Our pitching would improve. Our defense would take a hit, but 2 to 1 sounds good to me. Plus, the Drewski factor counts offense 3 times, so it's 4 to 1.

I may be alone on this, but I'd play Anthony in CF and keep Duran in LF with a big wall behind him to stop the ball from rolling. Garcia could play CF, when Duran, Abreu or Anthony need a break.

[notin]

18 minutes ago, harmony said:

FWIW Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Ceddanne Rafaela a surplus value of $31 million and Nick Lodolo a surplus value of $30.8 million.

So it’s an overpay!!!!

[notin]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I believe you.

I will say, Brez has a better trade record than Bloom, which is not hard to do.

Sure, there is the Sale and Priester trades, but there have been more good ones...

Crochet

Narvaez

Slaten

Fitts, Weissert +

O'Neill

Priester (for Nick Yorke)

Pending: Fajardo, Dandlin, Holobetz/YRod

Anyway, if these guys suck at trades, then they'll blow an Abreu trade, instead.

 

Except their Abreu trade (for 2months of Christian Vazquez) is already among their better ones…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

Except their Abreu trade (for 2months of Christian Vazquez) is already among their better ones…

That and the Pivetta trades were two of Bloom's best.

[Larry Cook]

The angels just got a 26 year old starter from Baltimore for ward. 
 

I hope bres-slow leverages that if he loses his mind and trades any outfielder not named yoshida!!! 

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Ceddanne Rafaela a surplus value of $31 million and Nick Lodolo a surplus value of $30.8 million.

I get that, but have more confidence in Ceddanne.

[JoeBrady]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

The angels just got a 26 year old starter from Baltimore for ward. 
 

I hope bres-slow leverages that if he loses his mind and trades any outfielder not named yoshida!!! 

You have no idea if Grayson can even pitch.  That's a medical decision.  Past that, if a team that needs pitching a lot more than they need an OF, then trades one of their pitchers, my assumption is Grayson's arm is a big issue.

[Larry Cook]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

You have no idea if Grayson can even pitch.  That's a medical decision.  Past that, if a team that needs pitching a lot more than they need an OF, then trades one of their pitchers, my assumption is Grayson's arm is a big issue.

I think I read in this site more than once that bres-slow loves to sign pitchers coming off serious injury and gambling they can contribute once they are healthy again!!!!
 

hello chris sale!!  We missed you greatly 

[notin]

11 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I think I read in this site more than once that bres-slow loves to sign pitchers coming off serious injury and gambling they can contribute once they are healthy again!!!!
 

hello chris sale!!  We missed you greatly 

He’s done that twice.  Let it go…

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

He’s done that twice.  Let it go…

I don't care enough to look up AGAIN what the exact number is but I thought it is something like 1/3 of all pitchers nowadays will have TJ surgery.  So like.....if you sign guys you're going to get guys who have had the surgery or will at some point.  

[notin]

12 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't care enough to look up AGAIN what the exact number is but I thought it is something like 1/3 of all pitchers nowadays will have TJ surgery.  So like.....if you sign guys you're going to get guys who have had the surgery or will at some point.  

One reason I don’t like long term deals for SP…

[notin]

I saw on the BTV boards a trade of Jarren Duran, Connelly Early, and Brandon Neely for Hunter Greene.

Ive been in the camp all along that Cincy isnt trading Greene.  But for Duran and Early and another?  If I ran the Reds, I give that deal a lot of consideration.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/201831

[drewski6]

17 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i know you probably don't believe me, but i'm not against trading Duran. my problem is that i have ZERO confidence in the Sox front office trading him for anyone worth having, after seeing them trade Betts, Devers and Sale for .....garbage, 

I still fell like Duran is most willing to throw a punch, and I always played more confidently and more locked in when we had a goon talking trash to the other team and getting our "us vs them" juices flowing

I also feel like Duran leads by example in the weight room

Baseball has gone soooooooooooooooooo soft. It needs a fight. A real one, not a clear the benches and nobody gets punched. Im tlking a legit scrum.

[drewski6]

Baseball needs to bring steroids back because theres just not enough testosterone in the game today

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Ceddanne Rafaela a surplus value of $31 million and Nick Lodolo a surplus value of $30.8 million.

Sign me up!

[drewski6]

Everyhthing I just said being said, I can live with a Duran trade.  He dropped a ball and lost focus in a playoff game, and hes had too many lapses in focus at this point for me to consider that an aberration. It was an awful drop in my eyes.  I didnt think hed do it in a playoff game.

Thats kind of when I went from you dont trade your rally captain to okay, i think if we get value , I can live with it
 

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, notin said:

One reason I don’t like long term deals for SP…

but like, that can work against you too.  You sign a guy to 3 years and he's injured for 2 of them and then pitched great for another 3 afterwards. 

It's not the longevity that should scare you, it should be paying for a guy at 36 years of age and up. 

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

but like, that can work against you too.  You sign a guy to 3 years and he's injured for 2 of them and then pitched great for another 3 afterwards. 

It's not the longevity that should scare you, it should be paying for a guy at 36 years of age and up. 

Unless I have a steady stream of minor league talent…

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

but like, that can work against you too.  You sign a guy to 3 years and he's injured for 2 of them and then pitched great for another 3 afterwards. 

Theres no upside in teh 1 yr prove it contracts (agreeing with you).  Worst case you wasted your money like Kluber or Buehler, best case they bounce back/opt out and you had 1 yr with them.  With term, if they bust out, you have a very nice asset for a while (a player playing above their pay grade)

ANother thing that gets overlooked by those who hate going long is inflation.  I remember when Beltre signed like a 5 yr deal at 18m, and everyone was like "great player, but thats too much!" And then 2-3 years later, everyone was trying to trade for that contract because contracts caught up

Like when Jaylen Brown signed the first contract after the CBA and was for like 1-2 months the highest paid player in NBA. And some of my friends were complaining about that, and im like, just give it a year. Same thing with Elias Lindholm on teh bruins.  Contract inflation is real

My thing is this: the contract you are signing or considering, how long ago were those threshholds broken (total dollars and aav).

So for example, its been 10 years since David Price signed a 7 yr / 217 contract.  And weve had a LOT of inflation in those last 10 years.  So a 7 yr / 217 contrract today for a pitcher SHOULDNT be top of the market because it was top of the market 10 years ago.  So if 30m AAV/215M total was top of the market 10 yrs ago and I can sign an elite pitcher for that (maybe its Skubal on an extension after we trade for him) you bet your butt im going to because if 30m/215m total was top of the market 10 yrs ago, the nthe top of the market contracts are due for an adjustment and i wanna lock my boy in before that adjustment happens.  Once the threshhold is broken , its broken.  Theres a lot to be said for setting a precedence for ffuture guys and setting the market.

I consider this kind of stuff.  And similarly, if you didnt get a raise this year, you got a pay cut because your cost of living went up. It applies in baseball.  If your payroll in 2026 is equal to your payroll in 2025 , you decreased your payroll.

[drewski6]

If I can get an elite pitcher right now for 30m/yr, I do it and its an easy decision. Because 30m / yr was top of the market 10 yrs ago, and if its still top of the market still 10 yrs later, the top of the market AAV for an elite pitcher is due to adjust north. So I wanna lock my guy in before that adjustmetn.  Shorter isnt always better.

[notin]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

If I can get an elite pitcher right now for 30m/yr, I do it and its an easy decision. Because 30m / yr was top of the market 10 yrs ago, and if its still top of the market still 10 yrs later, the top of the market AAV for an elite pitcher is due to adjust north. So I wanna lock my guy in before that adjustmetn.  Shorter isnt always better.

With Gerrit Cole several years into his $36mill AAV, Skubal is going to break scary records…

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

but like, that can work against you too.  You sign a guy to 3 years and he's injured for 2 of them and then pitched great for another 3 afterwards. 

It's not the longevity that should scare you, it should be paying for a guy at 36 years of age and up. 

The thing is, the shorter deals expire faster.  If I sign Michael King to a 3 year deal, and he is out for the first two, that deal is over 3 years from now.  But if you sign Tarik Skubal to a 10 year deal, and he has arm problems early on, youre paying him for 10 years and he might never be the same even when he returns.

Price signed for 7 years and couldn’t go two years without getting hurt .  And he was also never the same again.   And had that injury happened two years later, it might not have mattered to Boston, because he had an opt out after 3 years he probably (?) would have exercised…

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Baseball needs to bring steroids back because theres just not enough testosterone in the game today

Let’s go all George Carlin and put land mines in the OF, too!