Predicting LT payroll

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm not sure if they're actually paying that, I think that money still counts towards the cap.  Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that is his bonus being spread out for LT purposes.  It was already paid. 

I thought this WAS the Luxury Tax thread! 🙃

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's the mystery meat.  Maybe someone else can explain it, but my understanding is that you have contracts, arbitration, and pre-arb.  Contracts are probably perfect, and arbitration is probably 95%+ good.

So let's say you have 12 goes under contract, and 6 guys under arb.  We know that number.  That leaves 8 guys that are 0-3 years.  Wouldn't the calculation be 8 * $820,000 plus some smaller additions for year 1, 2, and 3?  I would think so.  But is there a minimum you can pay a minor leaguer if you bring him up for, say 10 days?

I'm not sure the number changes much, the more minor leaguers you call up, as one usually just replaces another and you add and then subtract about the same cost.

Now, if you end up with 15 guys on the IL, then you have more minor leaguers making MLB pay than estimated.

[Hugh2]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure the number changes much, the more minor leaguers you call up, as one usually just replaces another and you add and then subtract about the same cost.

Now, if you end up with 15 guys on the IL, then you have more minor leaguers making MLB pay than estimated.

Dude IDK, then someone is just mathing wrong.  Or not?

Some of those deals include kickers in them if they're called up to the majors and they end up getting paid more than other guys.  Guys who sign MILB deals.  We could also see a few more of those before ST. 

It can all add up to 4-5 million pretty quickly, which is about how much those estimates all diverge by. 

[Hugh2]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I thought this WAS the Luxury Tax thread! 🙃

Well I would have put it in that thread but SOMEBODY didn't start it

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Dude IDK, then someone is just mathing wrong.  Or not?

Some of those deals include kickers in them if they're called up to the majors and they end up getting paid more than other guys.  Guys who sign MILB deals.  We could also see a few more of those before ST. 

It can all add up to 4-5 million pretty quickly, which is about how much those estimates all diverge by. 

They are estimating how many minor leaguers get bumped up to MLB pay for X amount of time. There are other factors I'm sure we haven't thought about. Your point was one I forgot about.

This is not an exact science. I think the Sox even messed up on their calculations the year they went over by about $1M.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Now, if you end up with 15 guys on the IL, then you have more minor leaguers making MLB pay than estimated.

Good point/never thought of it.  That will change all the estimates.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Good point/never thought of it.  That will change all the estimates.

And maybe some estimates plan on 10 ILs while other project 20.