Lucas Giolito Declines Mutual Option

[Matthew Lenz]

Hours after the Boston Red Sox received confirmation that superstar third baseman Alex Bregman was opting out of his deal, they learned another player would follow suit.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe is reporting that Boston Red Sox Starting Pitcher Lucas Giolito has declined his mutual option. He will receive a $1.5 million buyout and hopes to earn at least $17.5 million in 2026 and/or future years via free agency. However, the Red Sox could opt to give him a qualifying offer of $22 million.

Giolito started 26 games, totaling 145 innings pitched. He finished the season with a pedestrian FIP of 4.17 and a subpar 10.6% K-BB rate due to an elevated walk rate. This marked his first full season pitching since undergoing a right elbow ulnar collateral ligament repair in March 2024, which could explain the difference in production between his first and second halves. In the first half of 2025, he posted a 3.67 FIP and 14.6% K-BB rate before the figurative wheels fell off in the second half. In total, Fangraphs has his 2025 value at the equivalent of a $15.6 million salary. While the Red Sox may try to bring him back via free agency, it seems unlikely they will give him a qualifying offer, given his production. On the other hand, a weak starting pitching market could drive up costs, leading to overpaying for players. Regardless, the Red Sox's primary goal will be to sign one of Bregman or Pete Alonso.

Do you think the Red Sox should look to bring back Giolito? Let us know in the comments!

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[Kimmi]

That's too bad that he declined the mutual option, but not surprising.

Depending on his medicals and how his elbow is doing, I'd give him the QO and hope that he accepts.

[vjcsmoke]

Why would they buy him out for 1.5m and then offer 22m? I think he's just gone.

Giolito spent all of 2024 on IR doing nothing. Has a decent 2025, and then jets for free agency to get bigger dollars.

Red Sox at least have shed a bunch of payroll. But will they actually spend that saved money on a player that will help them win more next season?

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

That's too bad that he declined the mutual option, but not surprising.

Depending on his medicals and how his elbow is doing, I'd give him the QO and hope that he accepts.

I think they may well do that, too. 

[moonslav59]

They'll offer the QO.

Since I think we'll have a restrictive budget, I'm hoping he says no, we get a comp pick and then spend the money on hitting.

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They'll offer the QO.

Since I think we'll have a restrictive budget, I'm hoping he says no, we get a comp pick and then spend the money on hitting.

QO and spend the money on any number of holes. 

[Hugh2]

There's a very good chance Giolito takes the Q.O.

I'd imagine a lot of teams don't want to give up the pick for Lucas, but if they've already forfeited one perhaps so.  Still that makes his pool of suitors smaller. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

There's a very good chance Giolito takes the Q.O.

I'd imagine a lot of teams don't want to give up the pick for Lucas, but if they've already forfeited one perhaps so.  Still that makes his pool of suitors smaller. 

Last year, people thought Pivetta would accept the QO. 

[Hitch]

I hope (and think) they offer it, and I'm totally at peace with whichever way it goes after that. 

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Last year, people thought Pivetta would accept the QO. 

I thought he would be offered it and I was very certain he would decline. 

I'm not as optimistic about Giolito rejecting it.  Which honestly, if he is as good as he was in 2025 (with maybe the chance to be marginally better) 22 million isn't a huge overpay, and it's only one year.  And it's starting pitching where you need 5 (you could say you need 9 from a perspective). 

Honestly, I'd be ok offering it to him hoping he rejects it, but being ok if he accepts. 

[notin]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Last year, people thought Pivetta would accept the QO. 

With my name stop that list, above even Mrs. Pivetta…

[notin]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I thought he would be offered it and I was very certain he would decline. 

I'm not as optimistic about Giolito rejecting it.  Which honestly, if he is as good as he was in 2025 (with maybe the chance to be marginally better) 22 million isn't a huge overpay, and it's only one year.  And it's starting pitching where you need 5 (you could say you need 9 from a perspective). 

Honestly, I'd be ok offering it to him hoping he rejects it, but being ok if he accepts. 

He is a good pitcher, so I have zero fear of him accepting it.  On one level, it makes sense for him as a lucrative value-rebuilding opportunity.

But it’s also possible that his recent injuries (something new to him) have him prioritizing years over quick cash. 

[Hitch]

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

QO and spend the money on any number of holes. 

The money appears to be about $45M to line one and $65M to line two.

My suggestion is we trade for a SP2 and use the money to go large on 2 players- 3 tops. We have some depth that can cover the borderline needy slots, and maybe we can also bring back matz and Ref, assuming we trade an OF'er or two.

$45M -$65M/ 2 is a lot of AAV.

$65M/3 is no chump change either.

If one is Hoskins, as you suggest, his cost will probably not be more than $12-15M AAV, so that would leave $30-33 M for 1 player (Bregman/Alonso/Schwarber) or $30-35M for 2 players (maybe Suarez, Matz & Ref)

If we go to the second line, it could be $50-53M/2 or 3. That could be Suarez, Polanco & Hoskins or maybe Bregman, Hoskins and M Kelly.

[Kimmi]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They'll offer the QO.

Since I think we'll have a restrictive budget, I'm hoping he says no, we get a comp pick and then spend the money on hitting.

I'd prefer that he accept the QO, but if he declines, at least we get the pick.  To me, it's a win-win.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I'd prefer that he accept the QO, but if he declines, at least we get the pick.  To me, it's a win-win.

I'm not sure why, but we seem to do way better with comp picks than actual draft picks, often higher picks, even!

2005: Ellsbury & Lowrie for OCab- the gift that keeps giving

2005: Buchholz for Pedro- who decline shortly afterwards

(We lost our own top picks in 2005.)

2006: Daniel Bard for Damon and was selected after Jason Place

2010: Workman for Jason Bay- 3 worse players taken before him.

2011: Barnes (VMart) was the first Sox pick but JBJ (Beltre) was taken after Swihart & Owens

2012: Brian Johnson (Papelbon) was better than Marrero taken before.

2014: Kopech (the Ellsbury regifting) was taken after Chavis.

2022: Anthony (ERod) was taken after Romero and C Coffey

2023: Campbell (Bogey) was taken after Teel, Zanetello & A Anderson

2025: Godbout (Pivetta) TBD (Witherspoon & Phillips taken B4)