Lucas Giolito Declines Mutual Option

That's too bad that he declined the mutual option, but not surprising.

Depending on his medicals and how his elbow is doing, I'd give him the QO and hope that he accepts.

They'll offer the QO.

Since I think we'll have a restrictive budget, I'm hoping he says no, we get a comp pick and then spend the money on hitting.

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Last year, people thought Pivetta would accept the QO. 

With my name stop that list, above even Mrs. Pivetta…

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I thought he would be offered it and I was very certain he would decline. 

I'm not as optimistic about Giolito rejecting it.  Which honestly, if he is as good as he was in 2025 (with maybe the chance to be marginally better) 22 million isn't a huge overpay, and it's only one year.  And it's starting pitching where you need 5 (you could say you need 9 from a perspective). 

Honestly, I'd be ok offering it to him hoping he rejects it, but being ok if he accepts. 

He is a good pitcher, so I have zero fear of him accepting it.  On one level, it makes sense for him as a lucrative value-rebuilding opportunity.

But it’s also possible that his recent injuries (something new to him) have him prioritizing years over quick cash. 

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

QO and spend the money on any number of holes. 

The money appears to be about $45M to line one and $65M to line two.

My suggestion is we trade for a SP2 and use the money to go large on 2 players- 3 tops. We have some depth that can cover the borderline needy slots, and maybe we can also bring back matz and Ref, assuming we trade an OF'er or two.

$45M -$65M/ 2 is a lot of AAV.

$65M/3 is no chump change either.

If one is Hoskins, as you suggest, his cost will probably not be more than $12-15M AAV, so that would leave $30-33 M for 1 player (Bregman/Alonso/Schwarber) or $30-35M for 2 players (maybe Suarez, Matz & Ref)

If we go to the second line, it could be $50-53M/2 or 3. That could be Suarez, Polanco & Hoskins or maybe Bregman, Hoskins and M Kelly.

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They'll offer the QO.

Since I think we'll have a restrictive budget, I'm hoping he says no, we get a comp pick and then spend the money on hitting.

I'd prefer that he accept the QO, but if he declines, at least we get the pick.  To me, it's a win-win.

4 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I'd prefer that he accept the QO, but if he declines, at least we get the pick.  To me, it's a win-win.

I'm not sure why, but we seem to do way better with comp picks than actual draft picks, often higher picks, even!

2005: Ellsbury & Lowrie for OCab- the gift that keeps giving

2005: Buchholz for Pedro- who decline shortly afterwards

(We lost our own top picks in 2005.)

2006: Daniel Bard for Damon and was selected after Jason Place

2010: Workman for Jason Bay- 3 worse players taken before him.

2011: Barnes (VMart) was the first Sox pick but JBJ (Beltre) was taken after Swihart & Owens

2012: Brian Johnson (Papelbon) was better than Marrero taken before.

2014: Kopech (the Ellsbury regifting) was taken after Chavis.

2022: Anthony (ERod) was taken after Romero and C Coffey

2023: Campbell (Bogey) was taken after Teel, Zanetello & A Anderson

2025: Godbout (Pivetta) TBD (Witherspoon & Phillips taken B4)