A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, southpaw777 said:

Agree. I was just sticking to the main culprits

If Cora was the diva-whisperer he was made out to be, why noe even try to smooth it over with Devers? He even spoke the same language, so no misunderstandings due to mistranslations.

To me, nobody is over 50% on the blame game, but Brez and Devers were more than Cora. Maybe 40-40-20.

[Old Red]

53 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If Cora was the diva-whisperer he was made out to be, why noe even try to smooth it over with Devers? He even spoke the same language, so no misunderstandings due to mistranslations.

To me, nobody is over 50% on the blame game, but Brez and Devers were more than Cora. Maybe 40-40-20.

I agree. 
bresLOW 90

Raffy 5

Cora 5.

[moonslav59]

Top fWAR players on teams out of it or close to it:

4.8 Witt KCR  (Not going to be traded)

4.4 Yordan Alvarez & 2.2 Paredes HOU

4.0 McGonigle, 3.9 Dingler & 2.6 Greene DET

3.7 Arraez SFG

3.1 de la Cruz CIN (Not going to be traded)

3.0 Kurtz & 2.2 Langeliers A's

2.9 Reynolds & 2.6 B Lowe PIT

2.3 Alonso & 2.1 Rutschman BAL

2.3 Okamoto TOR

2.1 Goodman COL

2.0 Neto LAA

[moonslav59]

Hearing some talk about Lindor to the Sox, all the way down here in Texas.

He makes $32M for 5 more years. He will be 37 and turn 38 in his final season. He was deferred money, too.

You gotta believe he will bounce back from this 2026 slump to take a shot at him, and you have to expect NYM to pay down some of his deal or take back one of the players or more:

$25M x 1 (+$5M buyout) Story

$18M x 1 Yoshida

$44.5M/3 Bello

$57M/6 Campbell

All of these 4 combined don't equal Lindor's total, and no way they take all of them, but I could see them taking Story and Bello or Story and KC as a salary offset mechanism. They may want a prospect, too, but they would save about half the money with either deal, as is.

[mvp 78]

 

[notin]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Optimist:  We’re sixth overall!

Pessimist: We’re worse that the Pirates and Marlins!!

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Optimist:  We’re sixth overall!

Pessimist: We’re worse that the Pirates and Marlins!!

The Marlins have a very Milwaukee-esque lineup. Their SP could be better though!

The Pirates have a top 5 offense in baseball. 

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Pirates have a top 5 offense in baseball. 

What's up with Reynolds?

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

Optimist:  We’re sixth overall!

Makes me want to rethink the "we can't be a top contender with just 0ne or two key adds at the deadline" mantra.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Where were we 3 weeks ago?

[moonslav59]

On the offense component of fWAR we rank 23rd (-30.6.)

On defense, our everyday players rank 3rd (+10.4)

Overall, we rank 17th at 10.7 (just 0.1 from a tie for 15th)

We were ranked 19th on June 24th, so moving up is a slow process. We were 24th on offense at -28.7, so we have actually seem our O number go down but ranking go up.

On June 24th, our pitching ranked 8th at 9.0. (SP 9th/ RP 10th)

Our pitching ranks 6th, now at 12.4 (SP 8th/ RP 6th). We are 0.1 behind the NYY and 1.0 behind SEA.

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What's up with Reynolds?

He looks like the guy the Sox wanted to trade for a few years ago. I wouldn't buy into it long term. 

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Where were we 3 weeks ago?

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Thanks. That's a pretty big jump in such a short time. It's not easy gaining that much ground in less than 3 weeks.

[moonslav59]

A Sox team has not won 9 straight road games since 1977.

I'm not sure when the last time we went 14-2 in a 16 game stretch, but I looked up these seasons:

2025: 10-4 (June)

2021: 11-3 (April) 11-3 (June-July) & 10-4 (May) not 16 game stretches.

2018: 17-1 (day after opening day) and 13-1 to start July

2013: 13-3 (April) & 12-4 (SEPT)

2007: 13-3 (May) & 12-4 (day after opening day)

2004: 16-1 (AUG-SEPT) & 13-3 (April)

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The Marlins have a very Milwaukee-esque lineup. Their SP could be better though!

The Pirates have a top 5 offense in baseball. 

And both are top 5 in WAR.  But both are also typically bad franchises to be behind, which the pessimists can cling to…

[notin]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Thanks. That's a pretty big jump in such a short time. It's not easy gaining that much ground in less than 3 weeks.

We have also heard how this was the first 9 game road sweep for the Sox since 1977.  And how the Sox beat up on weaker teams so it’s not impressive.

But yet this road trip was also the first time the Sox have swept 3 consecutive series in 3 different time zones, which is not only crazy but also questionable scheduling.  (The ‘77 Sox road trip was a west coast swing that included an expansion team.)

[notin]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

A Sox team has not won 9 straight road games since 1977.

I'm not sure when the last time we went 14-2 in a 16 game stretch, but I looked up these seasons:

2025: 10-4 (June)

2021: 11-3 (April) 11-3 (June-July) & 10-4 (May) not 16 game stretches.

2018: 17-1 (day after opening day) and 13-1 to start July

2013: 13-3 (April) & 12-4 (SEPT)

2007: 13-3 (May) & 12-4 (day after opening day)

2004: 16-1 (AUG-SEPT) & 13-3 (April)

18-1 in Joe Morgan’s first 19 games.  Followed by under .500 the rest of the way…

[moonslav59]

Going 14-2 is not easy, even in a weak league.

We aren't this good, IMO, but I don't think we were as bad as our record indicated before this run. Our run differential indicated we were not "that bad" and we seem to have come back closer to the expected W-L record. Yes, we are still 2 games under .500, but Pythagorean has us at 50-44. If we had that record, would everyone agree we should be serious buyers, if not "all in buyers?"

I'm not saying this in support of being buyers. I'm not in that camp, yet, but maybe this team is better than we think, and maybe we finally will get some help from players coming off the IL, like we never or rarely have in recent years.

IMO, a strong Anthony return might even outweigh a strong Crochet return, but with so many of our SP'ers on limited IP outlooks, maybe they are about equal in importance. Add one or both of these two and a decent trade or two, and maybe we look like a top AL contender and top 4-6 MLB contender.

Then, I woke up.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

18-1 in Joe Morgan’s first 19 games.  Followed by under .500 the rest of the way…

That was insane. Didn't his little son make up a line-up in that stretch?

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

And both are top 5 in WAR.  But both are also typically bad franchises to be behind, which the pessimists can cling to…

Pirates have a lot of young, exciting players that are fairly easy to point to. The Marlins??? Otto Lopez could post on here and most people wouldn't know who he was. 

[moonslav59]

Top fWARs since June 18th (full month after ASB)

T4. Durbin 1.4

T59. Rafaela 0.6

T97. Contreras 0.4

T125. Seigler, Abreu & Yoshida 0.3

Everyday Players: 6 at 0.3 or higher

Pitchers: 7 at 3.0 or higher

T10. Bennett & Suarez 1.0

T20. Gray 0.7

T32. Slaten 0.6

T45. Tolle & Early 0.5

T63. Whitlock 0.3

[Maxbialystock]

On 7/13/2026 at 1:54 PM, Old Red said:

You’re counting on little pinky Anthony like everyone was counting on him to start the season.🤔

A fair point.  It's his ring finger, and goodness know when he will return.  Still, without him or Crochet the Sox are 1/2 game out of the wild card.  The hitting stinks (but not lately) and the pitching is fantastic.

So now I'm saying don't trade away Contreras or Gray.  

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

  It's his ring finger, and goodness know when he will return.    

He'll keep saying "pinky," because it fits his narrative.  Truth is secondary.

Calling him out on his lies is just "overanalyzing," and it doesn't matter anyway. He'll keep repeating them, anyway.

He still repeats the "Con Man" rant, despite Contreras being nothing close to resembling a con.

 

[moonslav59]

BTW, who is the guy in charge at PIT? The team that got two of the biggest off season steals: O'Hearn & BLowe?

Who is the guy in charge of the Cardinals who traded away Gray, Contreras, Arenado & Donovan and are 5 games over .500?

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Thanks. That's a pretty big jump in such a short time. It's not easy gaining that much ground in less than 3 weeks.

the Mets jumped two spots while going 6-14 in that time span. what?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

the Mets jumped two spots while going 6-14 in that time span. what?

I guess other teams did even worse.

[notin]

 

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

 

I wonder how Boston has such a huge batting WAR lead over Philly…

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

 

I wonder how Boston has such a huge batting WAR lead over Philly…

It's batting plus defense.

OFF

-30.6 BOS

-32.1 PHI

DEF

10.4 BOS

-17.9 PHI

[Larry Cook]

On 7/13/2026 at 4:25 PM, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Tolle and Early helped make up for the disappointment of Anthony and Mayer.

And Bennett making up for Campbell???