A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Just now, FredLynn said:

I'm just looking at the roster...who is in the lineup. There are a few guys doing the job...Abreu, Contreras etc, but too many AAAA bums being passed off as ML players. IKF for example was signed as a depth move, which I was fine with. But he is in the lineup every day almost. We have a lot of IKF types and too few Schwarber types.

Of course, we are losing due to poor hitting- timely and untimely. The other issue is that the AL sucks so badly, it makes our record look worse than it is, as we suck in a sucky league. However, other AL teams are worse and much worse in run differential, which is a factor normally tied closely to Wins and Losses.

There is a disconnect. This is not to say we are a good team. We are still -5 while playing in a horrible league. It's not an excuse, but we should be closer to .500.

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course, we are losing due to poor hitting- timely and untimely. The other issue is that the AL sucks so badly, it makes our record look worse than it is, as we suck in a sucky league. However, other AL teams are worse and much worse in run differential, which is a factor normally tied closely to Wins and Losses.

There is a disconnect. This is not to say we are a good team. We are still -5 while playing in a horrible league. It's not an excuse, but we should be closer to .500.

I really don't care about our run differential (which I admit is strange when compared to our record). I care that we are NOT competitive and will AGAIN not be playing in October because we are AGAIN a last place team. Its embarassing, or at least it should be for a big market team. The the teams in the AL suck and we suck worse than almost all of them. Nothing to be proud of and NO REASON to go to the park for anyone. There needs to be a boycott until Henry apologizes for the dregs he put on the field..........AGAIN.

[Old Red]

30 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I really don't care about our run differential (which I admit is strange when compared to our record). I care that we are NOT competitive and will AGAIN not be playing in October because we are AGAIN a last place team. Its embarassing, or at least it should be for a big market team. The the teams in the AL suck and we suck worse than almost all of them. Nothing to be proud of and NO REASON to go to the park for anyone. There needs to be a boycott until Henry apologizes for the dregs he put on the field..........AGAIN.

Fred you tried to warn everyone on here many times before the season even started, but they scoffed at you, because they all think they know more.🤔

[FredLynn]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Fred you tried to warn everyone on here many times before the season even started, but they scoffed at you, because they all think they know more.🤔

I saw the need to spend to get at least one more bat, preferably from the right side, but definitely a quality player. But they took the cheap way out prioritizing defense and pitching....while they forgot that you actually have to score runs to win. I admit I thought we would be a little better than last year, but we are a horrible baseball team as it turns out. 

Why is BrewLOW still employed here? He totally screwed things up.

[moonslav59]

Schwarber had another great night, and is now 6th in OPS at .963. Many of us wanted him badly, last winter, despite having Duran/Anthony and Yoshida/Romy as DHs. I'm not sure what chance we had getting him, and we might have had to outbid the Phillies by more than $1-2M a year to get him here.

The best hindsight signings were barely talked up by posters, here. Murakami (.938) was actually talked down more than even mentioned as a possible signing. Who here wanted Nate Lowe back? He's at .847 as is the second best FA signing by OPS. Most of us laughed at the Luis Arraez idea (.802.) O"hearn was mentioned by notin, as I remember, and he's at .798.  Okamoto has slipped to .753 (129th in OPS out of 352 batters with 100+ PAs)

Alonso was a big hype guy on this site. He's doing better, now, and is up to .793- still far short of Willson.

Tucker was not talked about due to our OF glut, but he has not done well (.715)

Bregman is at .693. Many wanted him back, and he seemed like the Sox #1 choice.

Bichette is at .667 and was some poster's top choice after we lost out on Breggie.

Players who were actually traded last winter:

.842 B Lowe and .839 Donovan 

.635 Semien & .629 DHam

Other notable players, so far...

.780 Neto, .761 KMarte & .755 Paredes

.745 Shaw, .719 M Chapman & .703 Josh Bell

.685 Stott, .683 Naylor & .677 Keaschall

.674 Hoskins, .664 M McLain & .657 Seager

.653 Bohm, .644 T Gray & .641 Hoerner

.617 Swanson, .593 Ozuna, .534 Rengifo & .468 Croneworth

.740 Devers & .734 Meidroth

.727 Beni, Dubon .719 & .695 V Grissom

.678 Betts, .643 Bogey & .432 Refsnyder

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I saw the need to spend to get at least one more bat, preferably from the right side, but definitely a quality player. But they took the cheap way out prioritizing defense and pitching....while they forgot that you actually have to score runs to win. I admit I thought we would be a little better than last year, but we are a horrible baseball team as it turns out. 

Why is BrewLOW still employed here? He totally screwed things up.

I think he has something on JH.🤫

[notin]

36 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Fred you tried to warn everyone on here many times before the season even started, but they scoffed at you, because they all think they know more.🤔

Oh no!! We ignored Fred’s warnings and we are paying the price!  It’s like the story of Noah in Genesis all over again!!  

He also warned us Sonny Gray was a number 4 starter at best and that the Sox e”would  win 90 games but miss the post season.  But following prophecies is all about picking and choosing for some…

[Old Red]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

Oh no!! We ignored Fred’s warnings and we are paying the price!  It’s like the story of Noah in Genesis all over again!!  

He also warned us Sonny Gray was a number 4 starter at best and that the Sox e”would  win 90 games but miss the post season.  But following prophecies is all about picking and choosing for some…

Huh? How many of you picked the Red Sox for fourth place? I wasn’t all that enthusiastic about Sonny Gray myself, but he turned out better than I thought.

[notin]

44 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Huh? How many of you picked the Red Sox for fourth place? I wasn’t all that enthusiastic about Sonny Gray myself, but he turned out better than I thought.

And plenty of us said Gray was easily a number two.  No accolades there?  
 

Honestly Fred just wanted the team to spend more money.  That was his primary gripe, supported by his frequent repetition of the Sox ranking on percentage of revenue spent on payroll, a fairly useless metric.  Repeated questions about who the Sox would bench if they signed Alonso and traded for Contreras went unanswered.  Especially if you play by the April rules and don’t know Roman Anthony gets injured…

[FredLynn]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

And plenty of us said Gray was easily a number two.  No accolades there?  
 

Honestly Fred just wanted the team to spend more money.  That was his primary gripe, supported by his frequent repetition of the Sox ranking on percentage of revenue spent on payroll, a fairly useless metric.  Repeated questions about who the Sox would bench if they signed Alonso and traded for Contreras went unanswered.  Especially if you play by the April rules and don’t know Roman Anthony gets injured…

Useless? Let me repeat it then: the FLOPS at last check were 23RD in percentage of revenue spent on salaries. Thats unacceptable. Yes they should be spending more....much more. You see the result of not doing so on the field this year. They SUCK. As for Gray, he has SO FAR done better than I expected-but its only June. There's plenty of time for him to fall off the cliff as he wears down. And the FLOPS have done EVEN WORSE than I expected, mostly because they failed to acquire talent. They should have dumped Masa and obtained Alonso or Schwarber ALONG WITH Contreras. This was the year go all in, to try to win a ring. The pieces were there if a few strategic additions were made. They weren't. And here we are......LAST PLACE. Again.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Useless? Let me repeat it then: the FLOPS at last check were 23RD in percentage of revenue spent on salaries. Thats unacceptable. Yes they should be spending more....much more. You see the result of not doing so on the field this year. They SUCK. As for Gray, he has SO FAR done better than I expected-but its only June. There's plenty of time for him to fall off the cliff as he wears down. And the FLOPS have done EVEN WORSE than I expected, mostly because they failed to acquire talent. They should have dumped Masa and obtained Alonso or Schwarber ALONG WITH Contreras. This was the year go all in, to try to win a ring. The pieces were there if a few strategic additions were made. They weren't. And here we are......LAST PLACE. Again.

It’s a useless metric.   Teams like Miami and Tampa with virtually no revenue can spend a higher percentage of their revenue rather easily, but it doesn’t correspond to success.  Also that rank is from 2025.  23rd in revenue or not, they won 89 games and made the postseason.

Dumping Masa would have done nothing.  He wasn’t even an opening day starter.  Signing Alonso means benching one of Anthony, Duran, or Abreu.  Which one gets benched? (Cora being a huge proponent of Rafaela in CF meant it wasn’t going to be him.)

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s a useless metric.   Teams like Miami and Tampa with virtually no revenue can spend a higher percentage of their revenue rather easily, but it doesn’t correspond to success.

Dumping Masa would have done nothing.  He wasn’t even an opening day starter.  Signing Alonso means benching one of Anthony, Duran, or Abreu.  Which one gets benched? (Cora being a huge proponent of Rafaela in CF meant it wasn’t going to be him.)

Huh? Wow! If the Red Sox would have signed Alonso, and Flintstone like I said they should before the FA signings started why do you think all the above guys you mentioned would have still been on the team?

[FredLynn]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s a useless metric.   Teams like Miami and Tampa with virtually no revenue can spend a higher percentage of their revenue rather easily, but it doesn’t correspond to success.  Also that rank is from 2025.  23rd in revenue or not, they won 89 games and made the postseason.

Dumping Masa would have done nothing.  He wasn’t even an opening day starter.  Signing Alonso means benching one of Anthony, Duran, or Abreu.  Which one gets benched? (Cora being a huge proponent of Rafaela in CF meant it wasn’t going to be him.)

No, it means TRADING an OF, preferably Duran, but Abreu would be an option if they got a good return for him. Its a VERY useful metric despite what you believe. Teams that make a lot of money should be spending a higher percentage of revenue and the greedy owners would STILL line their pockets easily. Is it a guarantee of success? Of course not. But look what the Dodgers have done. They spend plenty and they are a juggernaut. We should be more like the Dodgers and less like the Rays.

[Hugh2]

18 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Huh? Wow! If the Red Sox would have signed Alonso, and Flintstone like I said they should before the FA signings started why do you think all the above guys you mentioned would have still been on the team?

If we sign Alonso we likely don’t sign Suarez and we don’t trade for Contreras and we are even worse right now.

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

No, it means TRADING an OF, preferably Duran, but Abreu would be an option if they got a good return for him. Its a VERY useful metric despite what you believe. Teams that make a lot of money should be spending a higher percentage of revenue and the greedy owners would STILL line their pockets easily. Is it a guarantee of success? Of course not. But look what the Dodgers have done. They spend plenty and they are a juggernaut. We should be more like the Dodgers and less like the Rays.

You got it Fred the Red Sox would have had to have traded some OF, and or released Masa. It not that complicated to understand that, but of course I’m not sure Brez could have pulled any of that off.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

If we sign Alonso we likely don’t sign Suarez and we don’t trade for Contreras and we are even worse right now.

Ranger even though he has pitched pretty well hasn’t been for the most part more than a 5 inning pitcher. Flintstone, and Alonso would have made a bigger difference IMO than Con Man, and Ranger, and I’m not  downplaying Con Man at all. The W-L record the Red Sox have now speaks for itself.

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Ranger even though he has pitched pretty well hasn’t been for the most part more than a 5 inning pitcher. Flintstone, and Alonso would have made a bigger difference IMO than Con Man, and Ranger, and I’m not  downplaying Con Man at all. The W-L record the Red Sox have now speaks for itself.

Ranger is just the money spent. The “Con man” has been good.  

contreras is .286 with 16 home runs. Alonso is .245 with 17 home runs. So, what basis do you have that Alonso would make a big difference?  I mean, don’t use last years stats here and now here and now.  And let’s not talk about defense, which easily tips the scales to Wilson.  
 

here and now, Sox are better with Contreras than they would be with Alonso…here and now

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ranger is just the money spent. The “Con man” has been good.  

contreras is .286 with 16 home runs. Alonso is .245 with 17 home runs. So, what basis do you have that Alonso would make a big difference?  I mean, don’t use last years stats here and now here and now.  And let’s not talk about defense, which easily tips the scales to Wilson.  
 

here and now, Sox are better with Contreras than they would be with Alonso…here and now

Like I said I’m not dissing what Con Man has done at all, and he’s pretty smooth around the 1B bag, so I agree that Alonso up to now wouldn’t have made much, or any difference, but Flintstone would have made a huge difference that you managed to leave out, but that’s ok.

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Like I said I’m not dissing what Con Man has done at all, and he’s pretty smooth around the 1B bag, so I agree that Alonso up to now wouldn’t have made much, or any difference, but Flintstone would have made a huge difference that you managed to leave out, but that’s ok.

How? He has one more home run and worse defense.  How, given what he’s done this year (here and now) has he done that gives credit to your claim that he’d make a difference.

he certainly makes a difference, but no more than Contreras has to date.  And I’d argue the defense is the big separator between the two right now

[notin]

54 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

No, it means TRADING an OF, preferably Duran, but Abreu would be an option if they got a good return for him. Its a VERY useful metric despite what you believe. Teams that make a lot of money should be spending a higher percentage of revenue and the greedy owners would STILL line their pockets easily. Is it a guarantee of success? Of course not. But look what the Dodgers have done. They spend plenty and they are a juggernaut. We should be more like the Dodgers and less like the Rays.

And the Cubs and Bewers ranked below Boston and do rather well.  It’s really not a good metric.

Trading an OF would have been fine, but I think interest in Duran (preferred choice) was tepid at best.  Hopefully the goal want to just unload an OF for anything to accommodate Alonso…

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

How? He has one more home run and worse defense.  How, given what he’s done this year (here and now) has he done that gives credit to your claim that he’d make a difference.

he certainly makes a difference, but no more than Contreras has to date.  And I’d argue the defense is the big separator between the two right now

Read what I said, and not what you thought I said. I said up to now I agree that Alonso wouldn’t have made much, or any difference. The thing I’ve said all along is that at the end of the season Alonso would have more HR, and RBI than the Con Man.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

How? He has one more home run and worse defense.  How, given what he’s done this year (here and now) has he done that gives credit to your claim that he’d make a difference.

In theory, maybe signing Alonso and not Suarez, then trading Duran for Paredes (not sure HOU agrees) we might be better off, but who is our SP'er replacement?

Signing Bregman not Suarez with Contreras might have worked had we not needed to trade Harrison for Durbin. This assumes Breggie gets over the .700 line.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Read what I said, and not what you thought I said. I said up to now I agree that Alonso wouldn’t have made much, or any difference. The thing I’ve said all along is that at the end of the season Alonso would have more HR, and RBI than the Con Man.

But he doesn’t have more and thats “here and now.”  Like I said earlier, apparently that only matters for Sox hitters.  

Not to mention as you have been shown, runners on base matter.  Contreras is driving in a higher percentage of baserunners than Alonso already, but for some reason you think that changes when fewer runners are on base.  Explain…

[notin]

21 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

How? He has one more home run and worse defense.  How, given what he’s done this year (here and now) has he done that gives credit to your claim that he’d make a difference.

Alonso also doesn’t strike me as a player to age well.  Granted, only a 5 year deal.  But to me he’s not a guy you go all in for.  The entire league agreed with me last year on this.  And “best available” is a stupid reason to make a multiyear commitment.

Plus as much as people say “but you could get Contreras AND Alonso,” there was no chance of that happenining.  Once they got one, the other was off the table.  Maybe trading Duran changes this, but they couldn’t find anyone interested enough to trade him…

[Hugh2]

All this, to distract us from the point that 31 at bats is a small sample size

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

But he doesn’t have more and thats “here and now.”  Like I said earlier, apparently that only matters for Sox hitters.  

Not to mention as you have been shown, runners on base matter.  Contreras is driving in a higher percentage of baserunners than Alonso already, but for some reason you think that changes when fewer runners are on base.  Explain…

I am very well aware that runners on base matters for RBI, but like I said before also runners don’t matter for HR. Either way I still say Alonso still ends up with more on both HR, and RBI when the season is all said, and done.

[notin]

9 hours ago, cp176 said:

I would keep most of the young regulars.  I agree with your primary trade candidates but I might even add Suarez to the list reluctantly.  Chapman, Gray, Suarez and Duran will be guys that other teams might want.  

I don’t consider trading Suarez because he has 4 years left, and he is doing well.  But I can be bought…

[notin]

Just now, Old Red said:

I am very well aware that runners on base matters for RBI, but like I said before also runners don’t matter for HR. Either way I still say Alonso still ends up with more on both HR, and RBI when the season is all said, and done.

If he has more RBI than it’s extremely likely it’s because he comes up with more runners on base in Baltimore than he does in Boston.  If so, who cares? It’s irrelevant to how he’d do here…

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

All this, to distract us from the point that 31 at bats is a small sample size

Unless we’re talking about Durbin, Mayer, etc.   

Not that long ago, David Hamilton was doing “so much better” in Milwaukee than he was in Boston and thats because of Boston’s poorly run organization.  (Except Hamilton wasn’t doing any better and is now actually doing worse.). Last week it was Dustin May doing better.  Dumb deal, but also not really true. Now Blaze Jordan? Of all the Sox prospects dealt away, he’s not in my top 5 that I’d want back…

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

All this, to distract us from the point that 31 at bats is a small sample size

No one is saying it’s not a small sample size, but it just seems it matters a lot more to you. If Blaze had played 1 game for the Red Sox, and all he had was 1 AB all that would matter to me is what he did in that 1 AB, and that’s as small as a sample size as you can get. You guys are so hung up on this small sample size stuff. Have at it. Knock yourself out.