A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[iortiz]

6 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Maybe the White Sox had a different and what has turned out so far to be a more correct assessment/ evaluation of KC.

We don’t know that but what is fair to say is that CWS would have (very likely) accepted Campbell or Mayer instead of Meidroth considering the “rankings” at the time. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, iortiz said:

We don’t know for certain what CHW would have accepted but my common sense says that they would have accepted Campbell or Mayer instead of Meidroth. My common sense also says that they didn’t evaluated well their prospects. Mayer and especially Campbell have been a disappointment thus far.  

Of course they have been a disappointment, so far.  But you are the only person on the entire planet, no, in the entire solar system, that would've kept Miedroth instead of KC.  That's simply not a real thing.

[Old Red]

Another lackluster performance from the Red Sox at Fenway last night, and now stand at 9-20 at the not so friendly Fenway to go along with being 9 games under 500 on the season. That 9 games under 500 seems so far away at the moment to get back to let alone going over it.

[notin]

11 hours ago, iortiz said:

We don’t know that but what is fair to say is that CWS would have (very likely) accepted Campbell or Mayer instead of Meidroth considering the “rankings” at the time. 

And why would Boston have done that?  Is the issue that the Sox aren’t psychic?  Or did you think 2 years of Crochet should have cost three BA Top 50 prospects?

Or is this just over the type of thing every team does multiple times?  Stop confusing Chase Meidroth with Jeff Bagwell as the one who got away.  The next Chase Meidroth won’t be too far along…

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, iortiz said:

We don’t know that but what is fair to say is that CWS would have (very likely) accepted Campbell or Mayer instead of Meidroth considering the “rankings” at the time. 

I'd rather have Campbell or Mayer than Meidroth. Meidroth is a fine player, but has a limited ceiling. He's a guy you can go out and get fairly easily. There are still higher hopes for Campbell and Mayer. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

And why would Boston have done that?  Is the issue that the Sox aren’t psychic?  Or did you think 2 years of Crochet should have cost three BA Top 50 prospects?

Or is this just over the type of thing every team does multiple times?  Stop confusing Chase Meidroth with Jeff Bagwell as the one who got away.  The next Chase Meidroth won’t be too far along…

Yeah, the trade would have been KC instead of Teel, not KC/Montgomery/Teel. 

[notin]

59 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, the trade would have been KC instead of Teel, not KC/Montgomery/Teel. 

Or possibly instead of Montgomery.  Meidroth might have still been in either configuration 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd rather have Campbell or Mayer than Meidroth. Meidroth is a fine player, but has a limited ceiling. He's a guy you can go out and get fairly easily. There are still higher hopes for Campbell and Mayer. 

There may be higher hopes for Campbell, and Mayer, but I think some of the luster has come off both the last two years from what it was prior.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd rather have Campbell or Mayer than Meidroth. Meidroth is a fine player, but has a limited ceiling. He's a guy you can go out and get fairly easily. There are still higher hopes for Campbell and Mayer. 

The ZiPS three-year projections have Chase Meidroth with 5.3 fWAR in 389 games, Kristian Campbell with 4.6 fWAR in 417 games and Marcelo Mayer with 2.5 fWAR in 284 games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chase-meidroth/31580/stats/batting#zips-3-year-projections

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kristian-campbell/33644/stats/batting#zips-3-year-projections

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/29668/stats/batting#zips-3-year-projections

Meidroth is a year older than Campbell who is six months older than Mayer.

The prospect sheen of Campbell and Mayer may be wearing off.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Or possibly instead of Montgomery.  Meidroth might have still been in either configuration 

Maybe? I think KC was in the Teel tier TBH. Don't think the Sox wanted to give up 2 of the big 4. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, harmony said:

The ZiPS three-year projections have Chase Meidroth with 5.3 fWAR in 389 games, Kristian Campbell with 4.6 fWAR in 417 games and Marcelo Mayer with 2.5 fWAR in 284 games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chase-meidroth/31580/stats/batting#zips-3-year-projections

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kristian-campbell/33644/stats/batting#zips-3-year-projections

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/29668/stats/batting#zips-3-year-projections

Meidroth is a year older than Campbell who is six months older than Mayer.

The prospect sheen of Campbell and Mayer may be wearing off.

Oh, does ZiPS use ceiling when they do their projections or no? That's what I'm basing this on. If Meidroth is providing less than 2 fWAR over the next 3 seasons, I'm not worried about losing him anyway. 

Get outta here SEAboy. 

[harmony]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Oh, does ZiPS use ceiling when they do their projections or no? That's what I'm basing this on. If Meidroth is providing less than 2 fWAR over the next 3 seasons, I'm not worried about losing him anyway. 

Get outta here SEAboy. 

The floors for Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer are more concerning.

This year in 47 games at Triple A, Campbell has posted a wRC+ of 89 (despite a .349 BABIP), striking out in 30.3 percent of his plate appearances.

In 54 games with the Red Sox this season, Mayer has posted a wRC+ of 61.

[Old Red]

23 minutes ago, harmony said:

The floors for Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer are more concerning.

This year in 47 games at Triple A, Campbell has posted a wRC+ of 89 (despite a .349 BABIP), striking out in 30.3 percent of his plate appearances.

In 54 games with the Red Sox this season, Mayer has posted a wRC+ of 61.

Plain, and simple KC is 39-167 .234 with 2 HR, and 19 RBI not to mention 63 K’S. Just for May KC was 12-64 with 1 HR, and 6 RBI to go along with 29 K’S.

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, harmony said:

The floors for Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer are more concerning.

This year in 47 games at Triple A, Campbell has posted a wRC+ of 89 (despite a .349 BABIP), striking out in 30.3 percent of his plate appearances.

In 54 games with the Red Sox this season, Mayer has posted a wRC+ of 61.

Development is not linear. They have already invested heavily in Campbell and believe Marcelo is worth more than Ketel Marte. Let's see where they are in a few years rather than relying on faulty ZiPS (who projects Contreras to only have 13 HR's this season and 1.7 fWAR and he already has 11 and 1.8). 

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Development is not linear. They have already invested heavily in Campbell and believe Marcelo is worth more than Ketel Marte. Let's see where they are in a few years rather than relying on faulty ZiPS (who projects Contreras to only have 13 HR's this season and 1.7 fWAR and he already has 11 and 1.8). 

I know many like rankings, and projections, but I think they’re pretty useless. Progress might not be linear, but with 2 more K’S for KC last night, and as they pile up I wouldn’t call that much progress¡ or development.

[iortiz]

13 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Of course they have been a disappointment, so far.  But you are the only person on the entire planet, no, in the entire solar system, that would've kept Miedroth instead of KC.  That's simply not a real thing.

That’s not the point. The point is that they are not projecting well their prospects which again is worrisome. 

[iortiz]

4 hours ago, notin said:

And why would Boston have done that?  Is the issue that the Sox aren’t psychic?  Or did you think 2 years of Crochet should have cost three BA Top 50 prospects?

Or is this just over the type of thing every team does multiple times?  Stop confusing Chase Meidroth with Jeff Bagwell as the one who got away.  The next Chase Meidroth won’t be too far along…

Why? Because Meidroth is the better player, but they clearly are not projecting and developing them well. Campbell probably won’t see a MLB AB but was extended. 

[notin]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Development is not linear. They have already invested heavily in Campbell and believe Marcelo is worth more than Ketel Marte. Let's see where they are in a few years rather than relying on faulty ZiPS (who projects Contreras to only have 13 HR's this season and 1.7 fWAR and he already has 11 and 1.8). 

So the rest of the way, Contreras will only have 2HRs and -0.1 fWAR? 
 

Sell, sell, sell!

[iortiz]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd rather have Campbell or Mayer than Meidroth. Meidroth is a fine player, but has a limited ceiling. He's a guy you can go out and get fairly easily. There are still higher hopes for Campbell and Mayer. 

I disagree. I have watched some CHW games and guy has an incredible plate discipline. Latter is not easy to find. Last time I checked he was hitting 270 and OBPIng 340. 

Mayer can’t hit/get on base and is injury prone, and Campbell probably won’t see an MLB AB again.

I’m  willing to bet against anybody that Meidroth will be the better player when all is said and done. 

 

[iortiz]

This really hurts man. As I said we are run by inepts. Obviously they didn’t see this coming. 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, iortiz said:

Why? Because Meidroth is the better player, but they clearly are not projecting and developing them well. Campbell probably won’t see a MLB AB but was extended. 

Being the better player today doesnt mean he will always be.

Campbell was sent back to work on things.  It’s possible that his light AAA numbers are impacted by this.  And depending on what he is working on, it could heavily steer his batting line negatively.

I doubt the Sox have given up on Campbell like you have.  

 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, iortiz said:

This really hurts man. As I said we are run by inepts. Obviously they didn’t see this coming. 

Pic is not loading, but I assume it’s Harrison?

In a trade involving 2 players with 5+ years of control, it’s premature to declare it a bust after 2 months..

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, iortiz said:

I disagree. I have watched some CHW games and guy has an incredible plate discipline. Latter is not easy to find. Last time I checked he was hitting 270 and OBPIng 340. 

Mayer can’t hit/get on base and is injury prone, and Campbell probably won’t see an MLB AB again.

I’m  willing to bet against anybody that Meidroth will be the better player when all is said and done. 

 

Mayer actually has a better K-BB rate this season than Meidroth and hits the ball harder. Once he figures it out, it won't be close. 

[notin]

7 minutes ago, iortiz said:

I disagree. I have watched some CHW games and guy has an incredible plate discipline. Latter is not easy to find. Last time I checked he was hitting 270 and OBPIng 340. 

Mayer can’t hit/get on base and is injury prone, and Campbell probably won’t see an MLB AB again.

I’m  willing to bet against anybody that Meidroth will be the better player when all is said and done. 

 

If Meidroth is the better player, it’s not just the Sox that were fooled.  Campbell and Mayer were universally ranked among the top ten prospects in MLB. No one ranked Meidroth anywhere…

[iortiz]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Being the better player today doesnt mean he will always be.

Campbell was sent back to work on things.  It’s possible that his light AAA numbers are impacted by this.  And depending on what he is working on, it could heavily steer his batting line negatively.

I doubt the Sox have given up on Campbell like you have.  

 

Obviously nobody knows what is going to happen in the future, but as I said I don’t need to wait 7 years to figure out that Meidroth is a good player. 

I’m that sure that I’m willing to bet on that everyday of the week an twice on Sundays. 

Said that when do you expect Campbell pan out? In one year? 2 years? When? Honestly I don’t see him taking another MLB AB if he stays in Boston. If he goes to another team like Grissom did, he will probably have a shot, but again, he is attached to a contract so I don’t see him going anywhere soon. 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer actually has a better K-BB rate this season than Meidroth and hits the ball harder. Once he figures it out, it won't be close. 

And Chicago very likely does that deal with someone else in place of Meidroth.  Teel and Montgomery were the clear targets…

[iortiz]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer actually has a better K-BB rate this season than Meidroth and hits the ball harder. Once he figures it out, it won't be close. 

Mayer can’t hit or get on base thus far, and honestly I could care less about power as long Meidroth can get on base as a leadoff hitter, and he gets on base a lot and keeps improving. 

Heck I was very excited about Mayer, Campbell and Anthony and while it’s early to make a definitive call, my hopes have reduced significantly. As I said I would rather bet on Meidroth than Campbell or Mayer, hands down. 

[iortiz]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

And Chicago very likely does that deal with someone else in place of Meidroth.  Teel and Montgomery were the clear targets…

Ppl in CHW are loving what they are seeing from Meidroth thus far. I would. 

[notin]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer actually has a better K-BB rate this season than Meidroth and hits the ball harder. Once he figures it out, it won't be close. 

Meidroth is a prototypical slap hitter who stands deep in the box and hangs back to get a longer look at pitches.  It’s not quite the same as actual plate discipline.  He will see more pitches per AB but it doesn’t mean he walks more and it usually cuts into power numbers.

I agree he has a limited ceiling.  He basically tops out as a slightly better Nick Sogard…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, iortiz said:

Ppl in CHW are loving what they are seeing from Meidroth thus far. I would. 

Are they?

Teel is injured and Montgomery is still in the minors, but I live in Chicago and Meidroth Mania is very well under control.

Now Murakawi Mania and Colson Montgomery (no relation) Mania are running wild…