A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Since the Red Sox called up Nick Sogard:

4th wRC+

2nd AVG

4th OBP

4th SLG

1st BABIP

 

Sogard, IKF, and Gasper the big three.

[notin]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Since the Red Sox called up Nick Sogard:

4th wRC+

2nd AVG

4th OBP

4th SLG

1st BABIP

 

Our own little Rogers Hornsby…

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Sogard, IKF, and Gasper the big three.

Since Gasper was called up:

3rd AVG

11th OBP

6th SLG

11th wRC+

4th BABIP

 

 

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Since Gasper was called up:

3rd AVG

11th OBP

6th SLG

11th wRC+

4th BABIP

 

 

All better than DUBin, and even Mayer for that matter.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

All better than DUBin, and even Mayer for that matter.

I'd send them both to AAA rather than have them sit on the bench. Mayer's bat isn't MLB ready. Durbin has hit MLB pitching before, but needs to get going for a few weeks before I'd call him back up. We're beyond Memorial Day. The numbers matter now. 

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd send them both to AAA rather than have them sit on the bench. Mayer's bat isn't MLB ready. Durbin has hit MLB pitching before, but needs to get going for a few weeks before I'd call him back up. We're beyond Memorial Day. The numbers matter now. 

I agree on both.

[mvp 78]

Sox are still 30th in expected ABS challenges per Statcast (-30.3). 

Sox have won 30 and lost 43 challenges. Reds have won 67 and lost 43 challenges. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Since the Red Sox called up Nick Sogard:

4th wRC+

2nd AVG

4th OBP

4th SLG

1st BABIP

 

We are also a playoff - contending 8-9 in IKF games started.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We are also a playoff - contending 8-9 in IKF games started.

Better than Masa's 9-16. 

[drewski6]

21 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If he INTENDED to fix the logjam, he should have just gone out and done it. You don't have to win every trade. Just fix the log jam.

If he INTENDED to sign Bregman, he should have just extended him prior to the end of last year or just given him the no trade clause. 

Intentions don't matter. It's like the last trade deadline where he thought he had a deal with the Twins for Joe Ryan, but really wasn't anywhere close. He had no fallback plan by the time he realized a deal wasn't getting done. The fact that he wasn't working on a fallback plan at least for leverage is embarrassing. 

Agree Breslows intentions do not matter from a wins/loss perspective, but Im interested in the behind the scenes.  You dont need to see the making of the movie to know if the movie is good or bad, but if its bad, examining the "how" and "why" via reflection can be helpful. Specifically, it may help determine if we still trust Breslow or if we should lame duck him, and wait for the next captain to steer the ship. 

Last year, when I expressed concerns about Breslows inability to get out of his own way, many pointed to our record / how we were on track to be a playoff team. And I understood the narrowed focus on wins/losses, but even last year, I was seeing underlying issues. 

 Ultimately, I was grateful for playoff baseball, even if I didnt love the team featuring Masa, Eaton, Lowe, Sogard, ice cold Narvaez..... But roll forward and the "dont worry about Breslow, look at our record" seems to have become "well dont look at our record because guys Breslow actually brought in within this last offseason are at least better than some of the potential names we could have acquired"

And I guess it comes down to are we making excuses or providing context?  Are we here because of bad luck or any other variable outside Breslows control or are we moving goalposts and making excuses to avoid having to come to terms that Breslow is yet another dysfunctional person in our organization.

[drewski6]

Or are we back up?

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But roll forward and the "dont worry about Breslow, look at our record" seems to have become "well dont look at our record because guys Breslow actually brought in within this last offseason are at least better than some of the potential names we could have acquired"

Who is making this argument???? 

Yes, Contreras is better than Alonso, but I've been saying that he would be going back to the offseason. That's not putting my support behind Breslow. It's putting my support behind the player. Gray has pitched closer to a 2 than a 3, which is what I said going back to the offseason when everyone questioned the move. Does that mean it was a good offseason for Breslow? Of course not! You can still like some of the players brought in and not like the overall job the CBO has done. 

The problem this team had under Cora and Breslow was that everyone org wasn't rowing in the same direction. There were different camps on what to do about seemingly every move (signing Breggie, where to put Durbin/Mayer). At least now, it's all on Breslow for some length of time win or lose.

I don't know exactly what is in store for the Red Sox over the next few years. The pitching seems to be in better shape. The offense is a huge question mark. There's no easy fix right now.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Or are we back up?

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

BOS Pitchers:

3.47 Home

4.01 Away

The pitching isn't the problem at Fenway.

BOS Hitters:

79 wRC+ Home

104 wRC+ Away

Thanks.  I reversed the numbers I read.  That said, 11 of the 18 losses at home were charged to the bullpen.   The starters are 6-7 at home.

On the road  the starters are 13-9 and the bullpen has 4 losses.  

The Sox OPS at home is .639 and away .718, a big difference.  

At home so far the two best OPS's belong To Sogard, .921, and Gasper, .858.  Small samples, of course.  Both are switch hitters.  

 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Better than Masa's 9-16. 

Better than almost anybody.

The funny thing is, IKF has the 7th best OPS on the team, out of 15 batters!

He's top tier at .706!

Now, break it down to 3 tiers of 5 players:

Top: Willson .888, Sogard .833, Ceddanne .792, Wilyer .779 & Gasper .742

Middle: Masa .710, IKF .706, Roman .675, Monasterio .673 & Jarren .672

Bottom: Wong .668, Narv .628, Mayer .581, Story .547, Durbin .479

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd send them both to AAA rather than have them sit on the bench. Mayer's bat isn't MLB ready. Durbin has hit MLB pitching before, but needs to get going for a few weeks before I'd call him back up. We're beyond Memorial Day. The numbers matter now. 

 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Thanks.  I reversed the numbers I read.  That said, 11 of the 18 losses at home were charged to the bullpen.   The starters are 6-7 at home.

On the road  the starters are 13-9 and the bullpen has 4 losses.  

The Sox OPS at home is .639 and away .718, a big difference.  

At home so far the two best OPS's belong To Sogard, .921, and Gasper, .858.  Small samples, of course.  Both are switch hitters.  

The bullpen lost some games, but if the offense is 29th in runs scored at Home, I think the offense is playing a part in every game being too close for comfort. You can't force every game to be a highwire act for your pitchers. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd send them both to AAA rather than have them sit on the bench. Mayer's bat isn't MLB ready. Durbin has hit MLB pitching before, but needs to get going for a few weeks before I'd call him back up. We're beyond Memorial Day. The numbers matter now. 

So when you’re not denigrating a lineup of Punch and Judy hitters, you’re promoting a starting infield of Sogard, Monasterio and Kiner-Falefa. 
 

That infield has less Punch and more Judy..

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

The bullpen lost some games, but if the offense is 29th in runs scored at Home, I think the offense is playing a part in every game being too close for comfort. You can't force every game to be a highwire act for your pitchers. 

Maybe if Breslow didn’t ignore the bullpen…

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Better than almost anybody.

The funny thing is, IKF has the 7th best OPS on the team, out of 15 batters!

He's top tier at .706!

Now, break it down to 3 tiers of 5 players:

Top: Willson .888, Sogard .833, Ceddanne .792, Wilyer .779 & Gasper .742

Middle: Masa .710, IKF .706, Roman .675, Monasterio .673 & Jarren .672

Bottom: Wong .668, Narv .628, Mayer .581, Story .547, Durbin .479

IKF's OPS was only 569 on 5/23 and 445 on 5/15. It's not like he's been a house on fire. He went 4-8 with a 2b. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

So when you’re not denigrating a lineup of Punch and Judy hitters, you’re promoting a starting infield of Sogard, Monasterio and Kiner-Falefa. 
 

That infield has less Punch and more Judy..

Those hitters are better than Mayer and Durbin right now. I'm not hitching my wagon to IKF though. I'd call up Capra or somebody else for the time being. 

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Who is making this argument???? 

 

You havent gotten any whiffs of this?...

Our record is not Breslows fault but a series of unforeseeable declines and Breslow actually did a good job this offseason.  The real problem here is an impatient and spoiled fan base!  And Im going to love the tears of RS fans when they get more disappointment!! Players shouldnt get to question Breslow over the axing of their leader. Shut up and do your jobs or you will be replaced!!  We would be much worse off had we signed Bregman over Suarez and for that reason its unfair to ask why/how Bregman negotiations broke down!  I refuse to even admit that the conversations and communications broke down and instead (due to wanting to believing it to be true) frame that as some kind of shrewd value move.  Boy am I glad to have such a shrewd GM.  Going into this offseason this was the second best team in baseball right now and we are set up better for the future than any team in history!  And then on top of that , we had close to one of the best offseasons in history! ITS STILL EARLY!!!  You dont need slug, just OBP and the offense is not poorly constructed.  Oh you made the debatable statement that toxic bosses are bad news - well let me provide anecdotal evidence to counter.  I hope corporate office takes away our weekends and slashes our pay!  
 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Maybe if Breslow didn’t ignore the bullpen…

9th fWAR (15th IP)

2nd ERA

1st in LOB%

4th in xFIP

If you want to put a lot of blame on the pen, go for it. 

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

So when you’re not denigrating a lineup of Punch and Judy hitters, you’re promoting a starting infield of Sogard, Monasterio and Kiner-Falefa. 
 

That infield has less Punch and more Judy..

Well, sometimes, its time to root for the most humorous outcome.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

You havent gotten any whiffs of this?...

Our record is not Breslows fault but a series of unforeseeable declines and Breslow actually did a good job this offseason.  The real problem here is an impatient and spoiled fan base!  And Im going to love the tears of RS fans when they get more disappointment!! Players shouldnt get to question Breslow over the axing of their leader. Shut up and do your jobs or you will be replaced!!  We would be much worse off had we signed Bregman over Suarez and for that reason its unfair to ask why/how Bregman negotiations broke down!  I refuse to even admit that the conversations and communications broke down and instead (due to wanting to believing it to be true) frame that as some kind of shrewd value move.  Boy am I glad to have such a shrewd GM.  Going into this offseason this was the second best team in baseball right now and we are set up better for the future than any team in history!  And then on top of that , we had close to one of the best offseasons in history! ITS STILL EARLY!!!  You dont need slug, just OBP and the offense is not poorly constructed.  Oh you made the debatable statement that toxic bosses are bad news - well let me provide anecdotal evidence to counter.  I hope corporate office takes away our weekends and slashes our pay!  
 

No, most posters were unhappy about the offseason! Yes, there has been player regression! 

I haven't seen anyone state that it's unfair to ask why the negotiations fell apart. We already know why: the NTC. 

Nobody thought this was the second best team in baseball going into the offseason. I don't believe that. 

Nobody said it was a great offseason. You need to show me some real posts for that not just hyperbole. 

[Maxbialystock]

Feel free to check the following out.

I went to Spotrac and looked at MLB team payrolls.  The Sox are ranked 12th in total and 15th in "actual" (not counting players on IL) payrolls.  

If those numbers are correct, I believe it's fair to acknowlege that Breslow is working at a disadvantage compared to all John Henry CBO's before him.   It might also be fair to say his budget allows him to acquire good pitching or good hitting but not both.

It does not help that two pricey hitters, Story and Yoshida, ain't earning their pay.  They were here when Breslow was hired.  

Also, among the injured are the Sox best starter--Crochet--and potentially their best hitter, Anthony.  

[drewski6]

when "we are so bad its depressing" turns into "we are so bad , its funny." . ...... thats ... well, I honestly dont know what it is....

But it is why I want Sogard, Gasper and IKF to be our 2,3,4 hitters. 

Trade Duran for pitching!!

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Well, sometimes, its time to root for the most humorous outcome.

Breslow extension.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Those hitters are better than Mayer and Durbin right now. I'm not hitching my wagon to IKF though. I'd call up Capra or somebody else for the time being. 

Sogard, IKF, and Mon Man might not be a good look, but right now it’s a better look than what Story, DUBin, and Mayer was giving you. It may be only temporary, but it’s the best the Red Sox got at the moment.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Those hitters are better than Mayer and Durbin right now. I'm not hitching my wagon to IKF though. I'd call up Capra or somebody else for the time being. 

Braiden Ward?

C’mon!  The Ward Train is coming!  But it needs to make a stop in Kenmore Square…