A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

51 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

i've made my case fo leaving Story at SS.  I think it's reasonable, given other factors.  Lots of luck convincing me the Sox would have a winning record if Story weren't playing SS.  

We are 8-11. Maybe we are 9-10 with Story at 2B.

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Do I need to add that Narvaez was rested and did not play tonight?   

Wong da man, now.

[moonslav59]

Crawford to get an MRI on the forearm.

I think we have to totally write of Kutter and Sandoval for 2026.

[moonslav59]

Uberstine (sore shoulder) and Valera (elbow inflamation) both placed on 7 day IL.

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS by position

.902 RF (Yes, Abreu can hit lefties)

.899 1B (Alonso who?)

_________________________

.700 CF (Rafaela seems pretty steady, now.)

.673 LF (Duran & Anthony mostly)

_________________________

.615 Catcher (Without Wong catcher would be near last)

.576 DH (mostly Anthony & Masa)

.531 2B (mostly Mayer)

.440 3B (Durbin off to a really bad start.)

________________________

Our worst batting slot is 2nd at .461

Our 7-9 is .683, while our 1-2 is .521.

Team OPS is .664, but...

.757 RISP (seems impossible)

.695 Men On Base & 2 outs RISP

.584 Late & Close and .536 High Leverage (seems about what I expected)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox OPS by position

.902 RF (Yes, Abreu can hit lefties)

.899 1B (Alonso who?)

_________________________

.700 CF (Rafaela seems pretty steady, now.)

.673 LF (Duran & Anthony mostly)

_________________________

.615 Catcher (Without Wong catcher would be near last)

.576 DH (mostly Anthony & Masa)

.531 2B (mostly Mayer)

.440 3B (Durbin off to a really bad start.)

________________________

Our worst batting slot is 2nd at .461

Our 7-9 is .683, while our 1-2 is .521.

Team OPS is .664, but...

.757 RISP (seems impossible)

.695 Men On Base & 2 outs RISP

.584 Late & Close and .536 High Leverage (seems about what I expected)

 

Roman Anthony is just not a leadoff hitter. He doesn't work pitchers, is always down in the count and supplies little instant offense that Cora fantasizes about like true power guys in Schwarber and Ohtani. Roman is also no speed demon -- not a requirement, but certainly helpful when an offensively-challenged club tries to manufacture runs.

Anthony doesn't even have a good On Base % (you know he's struggling when Rafaela is ahead of him in that stat) and is currently 7th on the team in OBP and Slugging.

Therefore, that's where he should now hit in the batting order: 7th.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Crawford to get an MRI on the forearm.

I think we have to totally write of Kutter and Sandoval for 2026.

Sandoval is pitching in Worcester…

[notin]

33 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Roman Anthony is just not a leadoff hitter. He doesn't work pitchers, is always down in the count and supplies little instant offense that Cora fantasizes about like true power guys in Schwarber and Ohtani. Roman is also no speed demon -- not a requirement, but certainly helpful when an offensively-challenged club tries to manufacture runs.

Anthony doesn't even have a good On Base % (you know he's struggling when Rafaela is ahead of him in that stat) and is currently 7th on the team in OBP and Slugging.

Therefore, that's where he should now hit in the batting order: 7th.

I do think re-arranging thr order further is a good idea.

Also Yoshida has a .474 OBP, nearly double Duran’s .254.   Maybe more frequent plate appearances here?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Roman Anthony is just not a leadoff hitter. He doesn't work pitchers, is always down in the count and supplies little instant offense that Cora fantasizes about like true power guys in Schwarber and Ohtani. Roman is also no speed demon -- not a requirement, but certainly helpful when an offensively-challenged club tries to manufacture runs.

Anthony doesn't even have a good On Base % (you know he's struggling when Rafaela is ahead of him in that stat) and is currently 7th on the team in OBP and Slugging.

Therefore, that's where he should now hit in the batting order: 7th.

So far this year, yes. Last year, in a sample size nearly 4 times this one, his OBP was .388

2025-2026 OBP Leaders (350+ PAs)

.384 Anthony

.360 Bregman

.325 Duran

.324 Abreu

.302 Rafaela

I'd be okay demoting him down the line-up for a while.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

Sandoval is pitching in Worcester…

I guess some could call it that.

[notin]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I guess some could call it that.

The guy hasn’t faced hitters since 2024 and you expect him to step in and get immediate results?

 

[notin]

On 4/17/2026 at 9:26 AM, mvp 78 said:

The ones that don't are only listening in on radio and have missed several important innings. 

Or only watch highlights…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

Or only watch highlights…

Ground ball back to Foulke... David Ortiz-David Ortiz-David Ortiz!!!

All this reminiscing reminds me of Red Sox champions, especially those who won postseason MVPS: Papi, Manny, Beckett, Lowell, Koji, Ortiz again, Jackie Bradley and Steve Pearce. 

Besides a few lights-out pitchers who are always essential to winning, all the position players who were voted Most Valuable in Boston Octobers hit pivotal home runs.

Ol Brez sure wasn't fooling at the Winter Meetings when he said, "Home runs are a foolproof way to put runs on the board." 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The guy hasn’t faced hitters since 2024 and you expect him to step in and get immediate results?

 

No, but I'm tired of the wait that keeps getting pushed back.

I've been pumping him up and giving stats of when he used to be pretty good all winter long. I usually have a lot of patience, but after all the waiting for injured pitchers to return from Sale to Hendriks, I'm wore out thin.

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Ground ball back to Foulke... David Ortiz-David Ortiz-David Ortiz!!!

All this reminiscing reminds me of Red Sox champions, especially those who won postseason MVPS: Papi, Manny, Beckett, Lowell, Koji, Ortiz again, Jackie Bradley and Steve Pearce. 

Besides a few lights-out pitchers who are always essential to winning, all the position players who were voted Most Valuable in Boston Octobers hit pivotal home runs.

Ol Brez sure wasn't fooling at the Winter Meetings when he said, "Home runs are a foolproof way to put runs on the board." 

 

They knew what they needed. I'm certain they got Contreras as a complimentary piece, but they dropped the ball on the main piece. They got that wrong, too. They thought Bregman was the second bat. I'm glad they didn't overpay for him, but knowing he was their first choice greatly lessens my confidence in their ability to make the right choices.

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Ground ball back to Foulke... David Ortiz-David Ortiz-David Ortiz!!!

All this reminiscing reminds me of Red Sox champions, especially those who won postseason MVPS: Papi, Manny, Beckett, Lowell, Koji, Ortiz again, Jackie Bradley and Steve Pearce. 

Besides a few lights-out pitchers who are always essential to winning, all the position players who were voted Most Valuable in Boston Octobers hit pivotal home runs.

Marty Barrett?

[moonslav59]

This is the killer:

ISO by Team:

.110 BOS #30

.111 NYM #29

.117 SFG #28...

We are also 10th worst in K% with the 11th worst BB%.

If these numbers don't move in significant ways, I don't see a way to make the playoffs, despite being just 2.5 GB a playoff slot, right now.

[moonslav59]

League ISO: .145

Sox Players:

.203 Abreu (59th in MLB among 254 batters with 50+ PAs!)

.172 Contreras (89th)

.167 Wong (just 27 PAs)

__________________

.118 Mayer & Story

.111 Anthony

.103 Yoshida

____________________

.094 Duran

.088 Rafaela

.087 Monasterio (26 PAs)

___________________

.050 Durbin

This is hideous!!!

[notin]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They knew what they needed. I'm certain they got Contreras as a complimentary piece, but they dropped the ball on the main piece. They got that wrong, too. They thought Bregman was the second bat. I'm glad they didn't overpay for him, but knowing he was their first choice greatly lessens my confidence in their ability to make the right choices.

Really?

So the Sox made a questionable choice with Contreras (.878 OPS) while avoiding Bregman (.614), Alonso (.670) and Marte (.680)?

There are two clear issues with this team.  1) Cora is not a good manager. And more important, 2) they are relying on far too many unpredictable young players.  With Rafaela, Anthony, Durbin, Narvaez, Mayer, Bello, Early, and Abreu all being 27 and under and with less than 3 years of service time.  Durbin, Mayer  and Anthony have never been starters for a full season before.

I think a lot of fans wanted the Sox to go all in because they had a window with Crochet, but don’t forget Crochet at 27 is in the same age group…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Really?

So the Sox made a questionable choice with Contreras (.878 OPS) while avoiding Bregman (.614), Alonso (.670) and Marte (.680)?

There are two clear issues with this team.  1) Cora is not a good manager. And more important, 2) they are relying on far too many unpredictable young players.  With Rafaela, Anthony, Durbin, Narvaez, Mayer, Bello, Early, and Abreu all being 27 and under and wuth less than 3 years of service time.  Durbin, Mayer  and Anthony have never been starters for a full season before.

I think a lot of fans wanted the Sox to go all in because they had a window with Crochet, but don’t forget Crochet is in the same age group…

I liked the Contreras deal on day one. I've said all along, let's compare Willson to  Alonso when 2026 is over. Where did I say it was questionable?

I said the Sox brass viewed him as the "complimentary" bat to the guy they felt was the #1 prize: Bregman. I also have felt viewing Bregman as the #1 prize was a mistake.

Also, 26 and 27 year olds are no longer "young." They should be prime or just months away from peak prime.

Okay, Anthony, Mayer and Early are young, but they are not the players dragging the team down. Counting on 3 young players like them is not unheard of, and BTW, we added IKF to cover for Mayer, have 5 OF/DHs to cover for Anthony and SP'er depth was viewed as one of the few plusses this team had to cover for Early.

Rafaela turns 25 in September and has played 355 MLB games and 425 minor league ones.

I guess you can count Durbin as "too young," and Early is the only pitcher under 27 on the ML roster. (I'm not counting Anderson with 3 IP at age 26.)

I don't think counting on youth was one of our major issues. It was not addressing the power issue, not timing a Duran trade correctly and maybe not adding a significant RP'er to the pen.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

Marty Barrett?

Doesn't bell a ring.

[moonslav59]

Perhaps, the biggest hindsight mistake was not trading Duran after 2024.

The second biggest was not trading Duran after 2025.

Oh, and BTW, for many of us, this is not hindsight.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Doesn't bell a ring.

Ring the 1986 bell.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I liked the Contreras deal on day one. I've said all along, let's compare Willson to  Alonso when 2026 is over. Where did I say it was questionable?

I said the Sox brass viewed him as the "complimentary" bat to the guy they felt was the #1 prize: Bregman. I also have felt viewing Bregman as the #1 prize was a mistake.

Also, 26 and 27 year olds are no longer "young." They should be prime or just months away from peak prime.

Okay, Anthony, Mayer and Early are young, but they are not the players dragging the team down. Counting on 3 young players like them is not unheard of, and BTW, we added IKF to cover for Mayer, have 5 OF/DHs to cover for Anthony and SP'er depth was viewed as one of the few plusses this team had to cover for Early.

Rafaela turns 25 in September and has played 355 MLB games and 425 minor league ones.

I guess you can count Durbin as "too young," and Early is the only pitcher under 27 on the ML roster. (I'm not counting Anderson with 3 IP at age 26.)

I don't think counting on youth was one of our major issues. It was not addressing the power issue, not timing a Duran trade correctly and maybe not adding a significant RP'er to the pen.

Not just young, I mentioned young and inexperienced with age and service time.  

You don’t think counting on the youth was an issue?  Exactly how many posts with bad Sox stats that specifically name Durbin, Anthony, Mayer, and Narvaez are you going to continue to make?  Those 4 players make up 44% of the starting lineup.

I think most of these players will hit better.  The season is still only 20 games old. 

I think that Breslow ignored the bullpen and the catcher situation are going to be bigger factors.

For all these “we didn’t add a superstar bat” posts, what superstar bat is carrying the lineups at or near the top of MLB in scoring, like the Twins, Nationals (who knew they are tied for the MLB lead in runs?), Pirates and Brewers?  Hey, who knew the Pirates have scored more runs than the Yankees?

[notin]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Doesn't bell a ring.

1986 ALCS MVP.  You probably remember him best for being on base when Dave Henderson homered off Donnie Moore…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Perhaps, the biggest hindsight mistake was not trading Duran after 2024.

The second biggest was not trading Duran after 2025.

Oh, and BTW, for many of us, this is not hindsight.

Agree, and I hate to say it, but maybe other clubs just view him as too -- I want to say unreliable, but inconsistent to give up major assets (in a way, that may be why Giolito is still unsigned).

And I know it's easy for posters to look at crappy current stats for all the big names we didn't sign or trade for, but I personally don't think all those numbers automatically transfer to a different home park, line-up, fan base, media market etc.

Bogaerts may be an example, since he thrived more in Fenway than Petco: ..312/870 to .272/.747. Of course, age is also one of the many other factors -- but we just don't know which ones really count... Machado .297/.890 at Camden Yards, .274/.832 at Petco.

Maybe perfect weather every day of the year makes it just too hard to focus on any job in San Diego?

 

[Duran Is The Man]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Not just young, I mentioned young and inexperienced with age and service time.  

You don’t think counting on the youth was an issue?  Exactly how many posts with bad Sox stats that specifically name Durbin, Anthony, Mayer, and Narvaez are you going to continue to make?  Those 4 players make up 44% of the starting lineup.

I think most of these players will hit better.  The season is still only 20 games old. 

I think that Breslow ignored the bullpen and the catcher situation are going to be bigger factors.

For all these “we didn’t add a superstar bat” posts, what superstar bat is carrying the lineups at or near the top of MLB in scoring, like the Twins, Nationals (who knew they are tied for the MLB lead in runs?), Pirates and Brewers?  Hey, who knew they are tied Pirates had scored more runs than the Yankees?

the catcher i wanted -Daniel Susac- is currently 11-22 with an OPS of 1.204.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

1986 ALCS MVP.  You probably remember him best for being on base when Dave Henderson homered off Donnie Moore…

I loved the way Barrett played baseball, but my post was intended to reference World Series champion Red Sox teams. Thus, bell a ring.

Here's an exchange I overheard in 1986 in pregame batting practice before a September game with Toronto... Red Sox hitters were asking recent call-up Pat Dodson what it was like to face Blue Jays' hard-throwing prospect Duane Ward. Dodson mentioned a fastball that tailed inside to righties.

"Oh, great," said Barrett, "90 miles an hour right at my hands."

NINETY was considered really fast back then, 40 years ago when Mason Miller was negative-12.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

the catcher i wanted -Daniel Susac- is currently 11-22 with an OPS of 1.204.

I never specified a catcher by name, but the free agent options peaked at JT Realmuto, whose catching days might be numbered…

[notin]

23 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I loved the way Barrett played baseball, but my post was intended to reference World Series champion Red Sox teams. Thus, bell a ring.

Here's an exchange I overheard in 1986 in pregame batting practice before a September game with Toronto... Red Sox hitters were asking recent call-up Pat Dodson what it was like to face Blue Jays' hard-throwing prospect Duane Ward. Dodson mentioned a fastball that tailed inside to righties.

"Oh, great," said Barrett, "90 miles an hour right at my hands."

NINETY was considered really fast back then, 40 years ago when Mason Miller was negative-12.

Well, you did mention Bradley, who was only an LCS MVP.  And frankly, it’s unfair to hold Stanley and Schiraldi’s bad inning against Barrett. Especially since Marty was instrumental in having that 2 run lead in the first place.

Also, was Mike Lowell’s home run really “pivotal”?  It put the Sox up 3-0 in the seventh inning in a series they lead 3 games to none.  They don’t necessarily lose the game without it, and extremely doubtful they lose the series…