Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[notin]

9 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Thanks, there was a good reason for that question mark...

Having seen Zack Wilson play QB, I can tell you that you’re not the first to attach a question mark to his name…

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Having seen Zack Wilson play QB, I can tell you that you’re not the first to attach a question mark to his name…

Yeah, but NY is where QBs go to disappear, only to re-emerge elsewhere as a star.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Yeah, but NY is where QBs go to disappear, only to re-emerge elsewhere as a star.

Actually that’s Carolina’s claim to fame now…

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Actually that’s Carolina’s claim to fame now…

I thought it was a racist truck stop? 

[Kimmi]

21 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I know Fred is the only one that believes in ST numbers, but for those that do:

• Alonso OPS is .792 and Contreras is at 1.563.
• Schwarber is at .833 while Duran is at 2.167.

It's quite obvious that the Red Sox made the right moves.  Who can argue with OPS's like that.

[FredLynn]

23 hours ago, Kimmi said:

The Red Sox made a respectable offer to Alonso.  In the end, it was not competitive to what the Orioles offered because of the number of guaranteed years, but it wasn't a lowball offer.

I am happy with what the team did this offseason.  I think we not only have a shot at a ring, I think we have a good shot at a ring.

I think its fair to say that the Sox offer to Alonso was not competitive because of the number of years guaranteed. It was LOWER than what the O's offered him, obviously. Had we signed him I think our offseason would have been complete and our team improved. Right now I do not think we will score enough runs to compete for a ring, or even for a playoff spot.

[FredLynn]

21 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I know Fred is the only one that believes in ST numbers, but for those that do:

• Alonso OPS is .792 and Contreras is at 1.563.
• Schwarber is at .833 while Duran is at 2.167.

LOL. Show me where I wrote that I believe that ST numbers mean much. I don't, so good luck. I do believe that Seabeach was correct in that on a team basis going into the season with some momentum IS important, but on an individual basis.....preseason stats are next to meaningless.

[Kimmi]

20 hours ago, notin said:

Whatever they offered Alonso was probably too much.  One-dimensional player whose only selling point was he was supposed to be substantially cheaper than someone like Bregman.

Contreras doesn’t excite me.  But I think prefer him to Alonso at what Baltimore is paying him…

I am excited about Contreras, though he is on the wrong side of the aging curve.  We'll see how it goes.  100% on Baltimore's offer to Alonso being too much.

[Kimmi]

5 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I think its fair to say that the Sox offer to Alonso was not competitive because of the number of years guaranteed. It was LOWER than what the O's offered him, obviously. Had we signed him I think our offseason would have been complete and our team improved. Right now I do not think we will score enough runs to compete for a ring, or even for a playoff spot.

Maybe it wasn't competitive, but it was a solid offer.  One can't do anything about how high another team is willing to go with its offers, and IMO, it typically isn't wise to try to match or beat an offer that is too much.

Our offense isn't going to be the Yankees offense, but with our pitching staff, we should score enough runs to compete.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Our offense isn't going to be the Yankees offense, but with our pitching staff, we should score enough runs to compete.

I think the Sox should beat current expectations and I don't think the Yanks will lead the league in runs again. 

Grisham 129 wRC+ seems unrepeatable

Trotting out 38 year old Goldschmidt seems foolhardy

Aaron "wrong side of the aging curve" Judge could be due for an injury

What I'd worry about is an MVP type season from Jazz. 

 

 

[Kimmi]

58 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think the Sox should beat current expectations and I don't think the Yanks will lead the league in runs again. 

Grisham 129 wRC+ seems unrepeatable

Trotting out 38 year old Goldschmidt seems foolhardy

Aaron "wrong side of the aging curve" Judge could be due for an injury

What I'd worry about is an MVP type season from Jazz. 

 

 

I can't really disagree with any of this.  I think the Sox offense will be better than some people think.  You make some good points about the Yankees offense, but somehow, I think they'll find a way to score a lot of runs.  They might not lead the league, but they'll still be very good.

[moonslav59]

Hunter Greene out until at least July- bone chips removed from elbow.

Remember some talk about trying to trade for him?

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Hunter Greene out until at least July- bone chips removed from elbow.

Remember some talk about trying to trade for him?

We have a much different team now, but I would still be interested in him.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We have a much different team now, but I would still be interested in him.

Indeed.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, Kimmi said:

I can't really disagree with any of this.  I think the Sox offense will be better than some people think.  You make some good points about the Yankees offense, but somehow, I think they'll find a way to score a lot of runs.  They might not lead the league, but they'll still be very good.

If Judge stays healthy, they'll make the playoffs again. 

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Judge stays healthy, they'll make the playoffs again. 

Perhaps no other team relies so much on one guy.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Perhaps no other team relies so much on one guy.

Why are we talking about the camera team at Fox Sports?

[notin]

22 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I thought it was a racist truck stop? 

It’s so much more.  It’s now a racist truck stop where Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield both flopped before becoming stars.

Your day is coming, Young Bryce Young…

[notin]

14 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

We have a much different team now, but I would still be interested in him.

Honestly, I pass.  Although that could change depending on the deal.
 

His contract is certainly cheap, but for multiple years, Greene is beyond unreliable.  He might be the most talented pitcher in MLB, but I doubt he is ever on the field enough to prove it…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Why are we talking about the camera team at Fox Sports?

Cause chicks dig the zoom-ins on his muscles.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Cause chicks dig the zoom-ins on his muscles.

Until Goomba Greg swept them off their feet!

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

It’s so much more.  It’s now a racist truck stop where Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield both flopped before becoming stars.

Your day is coming, Young Bryce Young…

Nothing better in the world (especially for Da Bears) than trading a king's ransom for the overall 1/1, and not even being sure who you want to draft.  Tepper might be a brilliant guy, but you have to know when to stay in your lane.

[moonslav59]

Braden Montgomery is trying to win a slot on the CWS roster with a nice spring, while Kyle Teel just hit the IL (4-6 weeks w hammy.)

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Braden Montgomery is trying to win a slot on the CWS roster with a nice spring, while Kyle Teel just hit the IL (4-6 weeks w hammy.)

Montgomery hasn't OPS'd 800 at AA yet, but they'd push him to MLB? Crazy. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Montgomery hasn't OPS'd 800 at AA yet, but they'd push him to MLB? Crazy. 

Monty still has a 5/0 K/W in ST.  He has one HR, but I have no idea who he hit it against.  In AA, he had 1 HR in 125 ABs, with 41 Ks.  If it was me, I wouldn't even open him up in AAA.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Monty still has a 5/0 K/W in ST.  He has one HR, but I have no idea who he hit it against.  In AA, he had 1 HR in 125 ABs, with 41 Ks.  If it was me, I wouldn't even open him up in AAA.

Why waste pre-ARB years on a player that isn't 100% ready for a team that isn't close to competing for the playoffs? Doesn't make sense at all. If you're the ChiSox, you want to hold your prospects back as long as possible.

[drewski6]

44 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Monty still has a 5/0 K/W in ST.  He has one HR, but I have no idea who he hit it against.  In AA, he had 1 HR in 125 ABs, with 41 Ks.  If it was me, I wouldn't even open him up in AAA.

But youve said many times its all about WAR/$ , no?    If Braden Montgomery has a projected 1.3WAR at min wage (round to 1m). Thats 1.3 War / $ (in millions). 

Cedanne is $6.5m (tax hit, which you always use) and is projected 4.7m WAR.  So thats .72 War/$$

So according to your own logic, Monty (this year) is almost double the value of Cedanne!  What a bargain! And what about next year when Montgomery gives you 2.5m on a 1m tax hit (2.5 War/ $ in millions)!  And the year after , he may even be a 4m on a 1m tax hit ( a whopping 4 WAR / $ in millions).

So over next 3 years , Monty is like a cumulative 7.8/WAR(in millions) over the next 3 yars but Cedanne is only like 2.5m  So Monty is worth 3 Cedannes!!!!!  

Or maybe this is exactly why WAR / $ is a grossly oversimplified metric.

 

[drewski6]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why waste pre-ARB years on a player that isn't 100% ready for a team that isn't close to competing for the playoffs? Doesn't make sense at all. If you're the ChiSox, you want to hold your prospects back as long as possible.

I would stop short of doesnt make sense at all.  Pros/cons to everything, and there are some pros here.  If he proves to be a piece that may help attract free agents, ticket sales, jersey sales, maybe get some buzz about a young kid.  When you stink, watching the kids is kind of all you get.

Dont get me wrong, the reasons why not I think exceed the reasons why.  So I think its dumb.  But there are reasons why teams do things like this.  I remember in like the  2005ish the Tigers were joke(like multiple consecutive last place finishes, couldnt get a free agent without overpaying) and they signed a 32 yr old Pudge Rodriguez to 4 yrs at (for the time) big money.

His first year there, he was great but they finished 4th in central, well under .500 out of playoff contention early.  The next year he wsa great, they finsihed 4th in central , well under .500 out of playoff contention early. And then things got better from there.

Around late 2007 I was in grad school at Bentley and had a class with a dude who worked for Theo (thats when i learned that theres 2 sets of rings because he had one but it wasnt real diamonds). He let me wear it.  Cool guy. He explained to me that the Pudge deal at the time was universally panned.  Why is this awful team clearly not ready to compete spending big money on a 32 year old!  And this dude (forget his name) taught me that sometimes you do stuff like this for the side  benefit.  He told me the real reason they signed Pudge wsant to have a good team in those 4 years (they wound up having very good years his last 2 years) but even if the rebuild took longer that and if they never made the playoffs in those 4 years ....They still wouldnt regret it becuse they overpiad an aging Pudge to change their perception. To stop being a dormat. To generate buzz.

Not every baseball dedision is made for 100% on field reasons.  Sometimes changing the perception/culture comes first and building the competitive core comes next.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But youve said many times its all about WAR/$ , no?    If Braden Montgomery has a projected 1.3WAR at min wage (round to 1m). Thats 1.3 War / $ (in millions). 

Cedanne is $6.5m (tax hit, which you always use) and is projected 4.7m WAR.  So thats .72 War/$$

So according to your own logic, Monty (this year) is almost double the value of Cedanne!  What a bargain! And what about next year when Montgomery gives you 2.5m on a 1m tax hit (2.5 War/ $ in millions)!  And the year after , he may even be a 4m on a 1m tax hit ( a whopping 4 WAR / $ in millions).

So over next 3 years , Monty is like a cumulative 7.8/WAR(in millions) over the next 3 yars but Cedanne is only like 2.5m  So Monty is worth 3 Cedannes!!!!!  

Or maybe this is exactly why WAR / $ is a grossly oversimplified metric.

What if the ChiSox held off until Monty was a 2+ fWAR guy before promotion? 🤩

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I would stop short of doesnt make sense at all.  Pros/cons to everything, and there are some pros here.  If he proves to be a piece that may help attract free agents, ticket sales, jersey sales, maybe get some buzz about a young kid.  When you stink, watching the kids is kind of all you get.

Dont get me wrong, the reasons why not I think exceed the reasons why.  So I think its dumb.  But there are reasons why teams do things like this.  I remember in like the  2005ish the Tigers were joke(like multiple consecutive last place finishes, couldnt get a free agent without overpaying) and they signed a 32 yr old Pudge Rodriguez to 4 yrs at (for the time) big money.

His first year there, he was great but they finished 4th in central, well under .500 out of playoff contention early.  The next year he wsa great, they finsihed 4th in central , well under .500 out of playoff contention early. And then things got better from there.
 

This is the extent of his MiLB service. He's barely played and hasn't really knocked the door down. ST numbers don't really matter. Are we chomping at the bit to put Mickey Gasper on the 26 man roster? If the ChiSox really want to build something, jumping the gun on Montgomery isn't a smart move especially for a farm that is still middle of the pack.