Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Just dont understand the Duran disrespect.

How is it disrespect to want to get KMarte for him?

Nobody has said trade Duran for Prospects, except in jest (or if you are MVP).

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Okay mr present your opinions as fact.  Meanwhile Cedanne has less trade value with 2x the control.

It might depend on the GM to view all those years of control for Ceddanne as a good or bad thing.

BTV Value:

63 Anthony (9 yrs) 7 per year (2.7 fWAR)

42 Duran (3 years) 14 per year (3.9 fWAR)

36 Rafaela (7 yrs) 5.2/yr (3.8 fWAR)

32 Abreu (4 yrs) 8/yr (2.4 fWAR)

2025 bWAR:

4.7 Rafaela & Duran

3.2 Abreu (almost 2/3 the games)

3.1 Anthony (half the games)

Projected fWAR in 2026

3.5 Anthony

3.2 Rafaela

2.4 Duran & Abreu

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Okay mr present your opinions as fact.  Meanwhile Cedanne has less trade value with 2x the control.

If so, they should trade Duran since he has so much trade value!!! Stock up on those prospects!!!

Rafaela is a better fit for this team than Duran who can only play LF and isn't as good as Abreu or Roman. 

[drewski6]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How is it disrespect to want to get KMarte for him?

Nobody has said trade Duran for Prospects, except in jest (or if you are MVP).

MVP: Id trade Duran for prospects
Drewski (to MVP): I dont get the Duran disrespect
Moonslav: How is it disrespectful to want to get Kmarte for him, nobody said trade Duran for prospects (except MVP)

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

If so, they should trade Duran since he has so much trade value!!! Stock up on those prospects!!!

Rafaela is a better fit for this team than Duran who can only play LF and isn't as good as Abreu or Roman. 

Defense is just higher on your priority list.  I want my defense to not be bad.  I want my hitting to be great.  Its fine, no disrespect intended....But in a Duran vs Cedanne battle, I can see how we are on opposite sides.

Duran is my #2 untouchable behind only Crochet.

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

MVP: Id trade Duran for prospects
Drewski (to MVP): I dont get the Duran disrespect
Moonslav: How is it disrespectful to want to get Kmarte for him, nobody said trade Duran for prospects (except MVP)

It's not disrespectful to state that Duran should be traded since he's the 4th best OFer on the team and the Sox need the roster space. It's not like I'm saying they should option him to AAA. Restock the farm by trading Duran. He has a ton of trade value. Go get some great prospects.🫠

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's not disrespectful to state that Duran should be traded since he's the 4th best OFer on the team and the Sox need the roster space. It's not like I'm saying they should option him to AAA. Restock the farm by trading Duran. He has a ton of trade value. Go get some great prospects.🫠

I think it is very disrespectful to say that Duran is a worse overall OF'er than Cedanne, unless you mean  strictly defensively. But I dont prioritize defense over hitting, personally.  There is a reason why Duran keeps leading this team in extra base hits and why he has more trade value than Cedanne despite less control.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Defense is just higher on your priority list.  I want my defense to not be bad.  I want my hitting to be great.  Its fine, no disrespect intended....But in a Duran vs Cedanne battle, I can see how we are on opposite sides.

Duran is my #2 untouchable behind only Crochet.

Abreu and Anthony both had higher OPS than Duran last season. Both are younger with more control. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Breslow does NOT have a strict "stay under" budget. Breslow made up the NTC thing on the spot.

Has that been verified by the Red Sox?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

I think it is very disrespectful to say that Duran is a worse overall OF'er than Cedanne, unless you mean  strictly defensively. But I dont prioritize defense over hitting, personally.  There is a reason why Duran keeps leading this team in extra base hits and why he has more trade value than Cedanne despite less control.

If Duran had so much trade value, why haven't the Sox been able to unload him. Per reports, they are fielding calls all day about Abreu and Rafaela, not about Duran. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Has that been verified by the Red Sox?

I think he's just quoting theoretical Sammy, not stating fact. 

[drewski6]

57 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Abreu and Anthony both had higher OPS than Duran last season. Both are younger with more control. 

Abreu platooning vs Duran not platooning? Anthony granted, but lets see it full season.  Duran is not superfluous on this team.  He'll hit third most nights.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Abreu platooning vs Duran not platooning? Anthony granted, but lets see it full season.  Duran is not superfluous on this team.  He'll hit third most nights.

Why would they bench their AS RFer? 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why would they bench their AS RFer? 

They wouldnt, except maybe if a lefty was on the mound.  I was just wondering if Abreu had a higher OPS because he faced almost exclusively righties. If someone has to sit against a righty because everyone is healthy, for me , in a game 7 situation, I prob do put Contreras at catcher.  I certainly wouldnt take my 3 hitter out.

But >90% someone will be hurt, so im happy to have the options/depth/versatility.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

They wouldnt, except maybe if a lefty was on the mound.  I was just wondering if Abreu had a higher OPS because he faced almost exclusively righties. If someone has to sit against a righty because everyone is healthy, for me , in a game 7 situation, I prob do put Contreras at catcher.  I certainly wouldnt take my 3 hitter out.

But >90% someone will be hurt, so im happy to have the options/depth/versatility.

Higher OPS because HE HITS DINGERS.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

I think it is very disrespectful to say that Duran is a worse overall OF'er than Cedanne, unless you mean  strictly defensively. But I dont prioritize defense over hitting, personally.  There is a reason why Duran keeps leading this team in extra base hits and why he has more trade value than Cedanne despite less control.

There is also the component of years of control and cost.

I'm not saying Rafaela is better than Duran, but bWAR and fWAR put them pretty close.

fWAR

3.9 Duran (.0056 per PA is number 4 per PA)

3.8 Rafaela (.0065)

2.7 Anthony (.0089)

2.4 Abreu (.0058)

bWAR

4.7 Rafaela & Duran (Rafaela in less games and PAs)

3.2 Abreu (higher bWAR per PA than Duran & Rafaela)

3.1 Anthony (#1 in bWAR/PA)

[drewski6]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Higher OPS because HE HITS DINGERS.

I think its cuz Duran has a higher % of PAs vs lefties. Duran had an .850 vs righty OPS last year.

Understand Abreu has a higher HR rate, but Duran gets 15 triples to Abreus 0, so thats the equiv of 12 extra HRs from a slg perspective.

I love em both dont get me wrong, but I think that people who think of Duran as expendable overlook the doubles and triples.  I think Duran will lead the team in RBIs this year and I think hes a better choice to hit 3rd than RA (at least vs righties, vs lefties you can make a case to even sit Duran).

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There is also the component of years of control and cost.

I'm not saying Rafaela is better than Duran, but bWAR and fWAR put them pretty close.

fWAR

3.9 Duran (.0056 per PA is number 4 per PA)

3.8 Rafaela (.0065)

2.7 Anthony (.0089)

2.4 Abreu (.0058)

bWAR

4.7 Rafaela & Duran (Rafaela in less games and PAs)

3.2 Abreu (higher bWAR per PA than Duran & Rafaela)

3.1 Anthony (#1 in bWAR/PA)

Durans go way up if you play him in CF though.

[drewski6]

Honestly, its hard for me to see this team trade any of Duran, Cedanne, Roman, Abreu and get better , which is probably why we still have all 4.

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Durans go way up if you play him in CF though.

Assuming he plays it was well as a couple years back.

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Honestly, its hard for me to see this team trade any of Duran, Cedanne, Roman, Abreu and get better , which is probably why we still have all 4.

Why wouldn't we be better if we got an equal bat in return, but someone who plays 2B or 3B?

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It might depend on the GM to view all those years of control for Ceddanne as a good or bad thing.

It's a great thing.  3 WAR * 6 years * $10M++/WAR = $180M.  Less $43M is $137M in extra value.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's a great thing.  3 WAR * 6 years * $10M++/WAR = $180M.  Less $43M is $137M in extra value.

I think almost every GM wants Rafaela at that cost.

Even the last 2 years are fine:

$10.5M in 2030

$13M in 2031

$16M option in 2032 w $4M buyout.

Some team would look to trade him by 2030 or before 2031.

[Michigan Adam2]

I am predicting a trade of one of the 5 OF's ( including masa) before the trade deadline to plug a hole from poor play/injury. Just too much surplus with too much depth in the system to not find a better fit with similar talent. 

[Duran Is The Man]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Can only start 9 guys. He's the worst of the 4 OFers and can go. 

LOL

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Abreu and Anthony both had higher OPS than Duran last season. Both are younger with more control. 

Duran had almost as many plate appearances as Abreu and Anthony combined.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think almost every GM wants Rafaela at that cost.

Even the last 2 years are fine:

$10.5M in 2030

$13M in 2031

$16M option in 2032 w $4M buyout.

Some team would look to trade him by 2030 or before 2031.

That's why BTV has to be taken with a grain of salt.  Long-term contracts are difficult to assess, 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's why BTV has to be taken with a grain of salt.  Long-term contracts are difficult to assess, 

I think BTV wonders how much WAR Rafaela will put up.

[JoeBrady]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think BTV wonders how much WAR Rafaela will put up.

That's the whole thing.  We don't know how they come up with their version of WAR, or even if they have their own version.  Just taking a look at bWAR v fWAR, there is a difference of 0.9 WAR.  Theoretically, 0.9 * 6 years * $10M/WAR is a difference of $54M.  And that's without an inflation factor.  I'm not bagging on BTV, but a long duration * even a small difference, yields a large variance.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's the whole thing.  We don't know how they come up with their version of WAR, or even if they have their own version.  Just taking a look at bWAR v fWAR, there is a difference of 0.9 WAR.  Theoretically, 0.9 * 6 years * $10M/WAR is a difference of $54M.  And that's without an inflation factor.  I'm not bagging on BTV, but a long duration * even a small difference, yields a large variance.

They must not use 2025 FWAR or bWAR to project.