Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yes , slipping over 244 has big consequences , even just 1m because then the next year the % of tax paid after 244 goes up significantly. Slipping over 284 (even just 1m) has moderate consequences (draft picks move back). Slipping over 264m is very little consequences, because unlike the other 2 mentioned thresholds there are no future detriments (higher % next year, or loss of draft picks) beyond just having to pay slightly more that year. 

Even if you go up to 283.9.  Thats an extra 20m above 264, and its taxed at 42% instead of 30% (244-263.9 = 30%, 264-283.9 = 42%)

So its an extra 12% on 20m, which is like what? 2.4M
 

The 264m threshhold is barely a thing. The 244m threshhold is major, the 284 is somewhat major, the 264 is not worth sweating.

I'm just saying it seems to matter to JH, not what we think should matter.

[Randy Red Sox]

9 hours ago, Hitch said:

You don't know what you're talking about. I have attacked ownership plenty, including constantly suggesting they're trying to be too smart for their own good. But when I see stuff that makes no sense, or is just flat out made up, on either side of the argument, I'll challenge them. There's an awful lot of hysteria around right now. You were attacking them yesterday for only doing a 1 yar arb. A ridiculous line of attack in anyone's language, but absolutely in line with someone looking for things to be angry about with ownership.

Again, we are 4th in revenue, and there are 4 teams (outside of the 3 above us in revenue) that dwarf our ownership in wealth, so why exactly should we be higher than 8th?

my comment on Crawford was simply in jest and a reaction to the fact that 1-2 year deals are pretty much what the Sox have been doing for the past few years. Personally I could care less if the Sox spend big on FA's. For example there is no chance I would sign Bregman for any more than 3 years and there would be NO opt out clause whatsoever. I don't mind Bichette for 5 years given he is only 28 and is a good player who can fill a hole for us. But if we go into 2026 with our current roster I'm fine with that but save us the reports that we are in on this guy and that guy and then get none of them.

as for payroll when we were once 2-3 and are now 8-10 and have missed the postseason 4 of the past 6 years after JH stated his goal was to compete for a WS EVERY YEAR.- that I have an issue with. The current team even with Bregman added is not a true contender IMO. 

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm just saying it seems to matter to JH, not what we think should matter.

I believe you are talking about the 244m threshold though.  I think that does and should matter.

What Im saying is the 264m threshold isnt as consequential.

It doesnt make sense to me circle 264 as a number to stay behind.  

You feel it when you cross 244 (repeater tax triggers), you feel it when you cross 284 (draft pick moves back).  But the excess pain you feel when you cross 264 is immaterial. 265 vs 263 is nothing. 285 vs 283 is significant, as is 243 vs 245.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I believe you are talking about the 244m threshold though.  I think that does and should matter.

What Im saying is the 264m threshold isnt as consequential.

It doesnt make sense to me circle 264 as a number to stay behind.  

You feel it when you cross 244 (repeater tax triggers), you feel it when you cross 284 (draft pick moves back).  But the excess pain you feel when you cross 264 is immaterial. 265 vs 263 is nothing. 285 vs 283 is significant, as is 243 vs 245.

Both lines matter to JH, although I agree they should not.

JH seems to despise paying more than $1-2M in taxes. This is year 2. Level two might be too much for him to handle.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You feel it when you cross 244 (repeater tax triggers), you feel it when you cross 284 (draft pick moves back).  But the excess pain you feel when you cross 264 is immaterial. 265 vs 263 is nothing. 285 vs 283 is significant, as is 243 vs 245.

Chances are the whole thing resets after the new CBA. It will likely just matter on the tax for 2026 and maybe the drop in draft picks, if JH goes nutty on us.

[JoeBrady]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm believing the Sox Payroll guy a lot more than I'm believing Cots. 

I'm not familiar him.  Does he provide details by player?  If so, do you have a link?

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We don't need to assume bad trades are necessary. We could trade Duran ($7.8M) and Crawford ($2.7M) for a $3-6M pitcher and save $5 to 7M. Dump Hicks and pay all but $3-5M and we're under the line.

No bad trades. Done deal.

I still think trading for KMarte's near $15M AAV makes more sense. He's a better batter, too.

I dont think you understand how much KMarte would cost in a trade.

[drewski6]

If it was Marte for Early straight up , i prob do that.  BUt I think its more likely Early + Mayer. And that gives me pause when the other option is bregman for 150, and I dont think its crazy to jsut pay him what Alonso and Schwarber got.  They are all pretty close to the same FA tier. And this way, we get to keep Early and Mayer.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think you understand how much KMarte would cost in a trade.

I don't think you can ever accept that JH is not going to spend as much as you think he should.

I could see AZ demanding Mayer and Tolle or Early and maybe even Valero, Soto or Phillips types.

Am I way off?

I'm not saying we'd give that, but I'd involve a third team and give up Duran plus more.

I don't think BTV is way off on the $70M value. His AAV might be near $15M, but AZ will pay him way more than that.

Some Sox BTVs:

54 Mayer

46 Duran

36 Rafaela

31 Tolle

27 Abreu

26 Early

25 Bello

22 Arias

18 Witherspoon

15 Campbell

 

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think you can ever accept that JH is not going to spend as much as you think he should.

I could see AZ demanding Mayer and Tolle or Early and maybe even Valero, Soto or Phillips types.

Am I way off?

I'm not saying we'd give that, but I'd involve a third team and give up Duran plus more.

I don't think BTV is way off on the $70M value. His AAV might be near $15M, but AZ will pay him way more than that.

Some Sox BTVs:

54 Mayer

46 Duran

36 Rafaela

31 Tolle

27 Abreu

26 Early

25 Bello

22 Arias

18 Witherspoon

15 Campbell

 

Point you.  Not unreasonable to trade Duran/Rafaela + Early (62-72) and a valero/philips type instead of signing Bregman.

Its Early though, its not Tolle or Early.  Tolle is a deal breaker for me.

Please notice how Duran has 10M excess BTV points then Cedanne despite like 1/3 the control. Thats just an aside.

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think you can ever accept that JH is not going to spend as much as you think he should.

I

 

Regarding this: an aggressive offer is on the table.  What do you think that means?

Its not 20m/yr.  So if Bregman, right now, calls Bres and says "yes" the payroll at that point in time , will be as high as I think it should.

Our current payroll + pending offer is quite high.

I think where we disagree is what that outstanding offer for Bregman is. I doubt its under 135m.

[drewski6]

Its out of the red sox hands, right?  Because theres an offer in hand. So its bregmans call. I think that offer is around 30m/yr. Bring us up to about 275ish mil, thats about where i think our payroll will be.

Now if bregman says no, and signs with toronto/arizona/cubs (anyone), and the red sox turn around and trade early,duran,philips for Marte, and you come on here saying, I think this is what i would have preferred and i therefore think its a blessing in disguise that bregman said no.....I would prob like the post. 

But right now, the red sox payroll stands at 245m, and they have an "aggressive" offer to Bregman. I assure you "aggressive" is more than 25m/yr, so...

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Point you.  Not unreasonable to trade Duran/Rafaela + Early (62-72) and a valero/philips type instead of signing Bregman.

Its Early though, its not Tolle or Early.  Tolle is a deal breaker for me.

Please notice how Duran has 10M excess BTV points then Cedanne despite like 1/3 the control. Thats just an aside.

I think Duran is not worth 46, and I think they dock Ceddanne for his offense. He also gets paid a lot more than Duran, back-end, and they count that.

I might give Duran & Witherspoon or Campbell.

I'd give Rafaela plus Tolle or Early.

I'd give Abreu, Arias and Witherspoon.

BTV might not accept any of those or say MAJOR OVERPAY by the Sox.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Regarding this: an aggressive offer is on the table.  What do you think that means?

 

Knowing the Sox, the same offer they gave him, last year. Maybe $140/4

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

He also gets paid a lot more than Duran, back-end, and they count that.

But they count that as an asset or liability?  Based on what we know today, what are his first two years of free agency worth?

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Knowing the Sox, the same offer they gave him, last year. Maybe $140/4

Yes, and my point is that I dont think they are concerned about 264, which this offer would put them past.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yes, and my point is that I dont think they are concerned about 264, which this offer would put them past.

I think once we sign Bregman with massive defferals, we'll trade Duran and get back under line 2. Then, we'll make a mistake and go over by $1.5M, anyway.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

But they count that as an asset or liability?  Based on what we know today, what are his first two years of free agency worth?

They take his total estimated value and subtract by the money he's owed or projected to make, if an arb player.

These are some numbers:

Value- pay= net value

94.2 Rafaela -58= 36.2

82.5 Duran-36.6= 45.9

78.3 Mayer-24.5=53.8

75.5 Bello-50.5= 25.0

56.4 Abreu-28.9=27.4

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

If it was Marte for Early straight up , i prob do that.  BUt I think its more likely Early + Mayer. And that gives me pause when the other option is bregman for 150, and I dont think its crazy to jsut pay him what Alonso and Schwarber got.  They are all pretty close to the same FA tier. And this way, we get to keep Early and Mayer.

keep Early and Mayer. Marte doesn't fit the Sox window or budget

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

keep Early and Mayer. Marte doesn't fit the Sox window or budget

Our window is as wide as his years of control.

His AAV is about $15M- about half of Bregman's estimate will be. He'll hit double the homers.

I can see not wanting to give up Early and or Mayer, but Marte is a perfect fit.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They take his total estimated value and subtract by the money he's owed or projected to make, if an arb player.

These are some numbers:

Value- pay= net value

94.2 Rafaela -58= 36.2

82.5 Duran-36.6= 45.9

78.3 Mayer-24.5=53.8

75.5 Bello-50.5= 25.0

56.4 Abreu-28.9=27.4

How do they arrive at the value?  I assume it starts with a FG WAR projection multiplied by the annual rate for a FA.  Just using $9M/fWAR, this means they are projecting 3.06 fWAR/year for Duran.  That feels low to me, but that can be a separate analysis.  But the Rafaela number implies 1.5 fWAR per year.  I'd make a serious magical wager he exceeds that.  He was at 3.8 last year.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Our window is as wide as his years of control.

His AAV is about $15M- about half of Bregman's estimate will be. He'll hit double the homers.

I can see not wanting to give up Early and or Mayer, but Marte is a perfect fit.

he is only a perfect fit if he can get him at a reasonable trade cost not involving Tolle, Early, Witherspoon , or Bello and that is probably not likely

 

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

How do they arrive at the value?  I assume it starts with a FG WAR projection multiplied by the annual rate for a FA.  Just using $9M/fWAR, this means they are projecting 3.06 fWAR/year for Duran.  That feels low to me, but that can be a separate analysis.  But the Rafaela number implies 1.5 fWAR per year.  I'd make a serious magical wager he exceeds that.  He was at 3.8 last year.

Yes, they seem to be off on some areas, but Ceddanne does seem to have a lot of range in projected value.

I think Duran might be too high and I'd have Rafaela worth more than Duran.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

he is only a perfect fit if he can get him at a reasonable trade cost not involving Tolle, Early, Witherspoon , or Bello and that is probably not likely

Of course. It's all about the return package, and AZ is not looking for prospects.

Maybe a third team could get involved, as we give AZ one of our 4 OF'ers and some prospects to the 3rd team, as they give a second key MLB piece to AZ.

If AZ valued Campbell highly, maybe they'd take Duran & Campbell plus Crawford & Valera, but I think Witherspoon would have to go- not Crawford.

[moonslav59]

Wow! Skubal and Tigers are $13M apart on arb submission numbers- a record.

[moonslav59]

Yanks have apparently offered Bellinger $30M AAV.

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm not familiar him.  Does he provide details by player?  If so, do you have a link?

https://soxprospects.com/payroll.htm

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yanks have apparently offered Bellinger $30M AAV.

I think Bellinger likes the AAV, but wants more years. 

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Wow! Skubal and Tigers are $13M apart on arb submission numbers- a record.

Skubal wants $32M.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

Skubal wants $32M.

He deserves it, but not by the established arb model.