Red Sox (N/A) vs Day Off: 9/4/25

[Brandon Glick]

How are you feeling about the Red Sox right now?

[Jasonbay44]

NFL is back tonight and Jordan Hicks can’t possibly pitch in a game for the Red Sox today. Gotta look at the positives! 

[mvp 78]

Sox still have an extremely great chance to get into the playoffs. 

On this date in 2011, the Sox were 8 games up on the Rays. They went 6-17 the rest of the way. Sox are currently 6 games up on the Rangers. They really have to just play awful baseball for the rest of the way to be golfing in September. 

[drewski6]

We can get hot if we make the playoffs and smart money is that we make it.  Feels like the season is starting to slip away but has not slipped away.

[moonslav59]

I feel good about our chances to make the playoffs, and when you consider that 3 SP'ers usually get about 80-90% of all playoff starts, I think that gives us a boost. I think we can compete with our top 3 starters, and Tolle might be a plus #4.

fWAR Rankings by AL contenders:

DET: 1 Skubal, 21 Flaherty, 29 Mize

NYY: 5 Fried, 16 Rodon, 23 Warren

BOS: 2 Crochet, 25 Bello, 32 Giolito

HOU: 3 Brown, 4 Valdez, 58 Walter (big drop off)

SEA: 13 Woo, 20 Gilbert, 28 Castillo, 30 Kirby

TOR: 14 Gausman, 22 Bassitt, 36 Berrios

Even without Anthony, the bottom of our order looks better than most teams, and if we get Abreu back & healthy, maybe the top and middle of our orser can keep pace with other AL contenders with bigger star power.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I feel good about our chances to make the playoffs, and when you consider that 3 SP'ers usually get about 80-90% of all playoff starts, I think that gives us a boost. I think we can compete with our top 3 starters, and Tolle might be a plus #4.

fWAR Rankings by AL contenders:

DET: 1 Skubal, 21 Flaherty, 29 Mize

NYY: 5 Fried, 16 Rodon, 23 Warren

BOS: 2 Crochet, 25 Bello, 32 Giolito

HOU: 3 Brown, 4 Valdez, 58 Walter (big drop off)

SEA: 13 Woo, 20 Gilbert, 28 Castillo, 30 Kirby

TOR: 14 Gausman, 22 Bassitt, 36 Berrios

Even without Anthony, the bottom of our order looks better than most teams, and if we get Abreu back & healthy, maybe the top and middle of our orser can keep pace with other AL contenders with bigger star power.

Im still thinking Duran is going to turn into playoff monster.  Something about his crazy eyes and intensity.  Also, Story is a pro;s pro.  Without researching, I would bet money that Story shows up at the park every day at the exact same time.  Dude prob doesnt drink night before games.  Like a true pro. And Anthony may even come back for the playoffs.  Right now, we need no new injuries and Bregman to snap out of his funk.  And Bello to keep rolling.

Im not overly concerned about Crochet.  I say skip his next start. And I know we dont have ample depth to do that, but I think we gotta.  Needs some recovery.  

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, Jasonbay44 said:

NFL is back tonight and Jordan Hicks can’t possibly pitch in a game for the Red Sox today. Gotta look at the positives! 

Jared posted this today on X. what was the Sox front office thinking when they took on this salary dump loser?

 

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Jared posted this today on X. what was the Sox front office thinking when they took on this salary dump loser?

 

 

They thought they could fix him and turn him into a high leverage guy like they did with Chapman. Seems like it didn't work! Should have just handed SF 45M for 3 years to NOT take on Hicks. At least then they could call up a AAA guy that could pitch at a mediocre level rather than an atrocious level. 

[Maxbialystock]

First, what a great idea to start a game thread on an off day!!!

Second, while I agree with mvp 78 the Sox are definitely still very much in the postseason hunt, I'm definitely nervous about both the hitting and pitching.  

Of the Sox 6 best OPS's--Lowe .949, Anthony .859, Bregman .849, Ref .847, Gonzalez .834, and Abreu .811--Anthony and Abreu are on the IL, Bregman is in a 12 game slump, Lowe can't hit lefties, Ref can't hit righties, and Gonzalez OPS vs righties is .697. 

So putting a lineup together continues to be a balancing act.

Pitching has been the real strength of the 2025 Sox.  Despite losing 8 freaking starters--Crawford, Buehler, Dobbins, Fitts, Houck, Newcomb, Criswell, and possibly May--the Sox still have an excellent top 4 (Crochet, Bello, Giolito, and Tolle).  Plus the bullpen of Chapman, Whitlock, Weissert, Wilson, Matz, Slaten, and Bernardino is actually pretty good.  

Nevertheless, the weak-hitting Guardians managed to score 19 runs in their 3 game series at the Fens.  They scored 7 off our ace Crochet.  Bello struggled, giving up 3 runs and 3 BB in 5 IP.  Tolle looked terrific in his first ever MLB start against the Pirates, but he is restricted in the number of pitches he can throw and how often he starts.  May, the presumed 5th starter, had 2 good starts last month, but 4 lousy ones and an August ERA of 5.68. 

And then there's Jordan Hicks, who has pitched in 20 games in relief (in July, August, and Sep) and has an ERA of 8,  1 Hold, 12 BB's, and 15 K's.  SF sent us a box of rocks.   Why is he still on the roster?  

 

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

And then there's Jordan Hicks, who has pitched in 20 games in relief (in July, August, and Sep) and has an ERA of 8,  1 Hold, 12 BB's, and 15 K's.  SF sent us a box of rocks.   Why is he still on the roster?  

That was fixed temporarily. 

[Maxbialystock]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I feel good about our chances to make the playoffs, and when you consider that 3 SP'ers usually get about 80-90% of all playoff starts, I think that gives us a boost. I think we can compete with our top 3 starters, and Tolle might be a plus #4.

fWAR Rankings by AL contenders:

DET: 1 Skubal, 21 Flaherty, 29 Mize

NYY: 5 Fried, 16 Rodon, 23 Warren

BOS: 2 Crochet, 25 Bello, 32 Giolito

HOU: 3 Brown, 4 Valdez, 58 Walter (big drop off)

SEA: 13 Woo, 20 Gilbert, 28 Castillo, 30 Kirby

TOR: 14 Gausman, 22 Bassitt, 36 Berrios

Even without Anthony, the bottom of our order looks better than most teams, and if we get Abreu back & healthy, maybe the top and middle of our orser can keep pace with other AL contenders with bigger star power.

Love your optimism supported by stats, but also by hopefulness.  As a former New Englander said, "Hope Is Not a Method."  Bregman's slump (12 games) and Anthony and Abreu on the IL are heavy blows.  Of the three other OPS's over .800 (Lowe, Ref, and Gonzalez), Lowe can't hit lefties and Ref and Gonzalez can't hit righties.  The next best OPS, Duran's .786, also cannot hit lefties.  

If the Sox go 4-2 on this road trip, I think they can do what you say.  

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I feel good about our chances to make the playoffs, and when you consider that 3 SP'ers usually get about 80-90% of all playoff starts, I think that gives us a boost. I think we can compete with our top 3 starters, and Tolle might be a plus #4.

fWAR Rankings by AL contenders:

DET: 1 Skubal, 21 Flaherty, 29 Mize

NYY: 5 Fried, 16 Rodon, 23 Warren

BOS: 2 Crochet, 25 Bello, 32 Giolito

HOU: 3 Brown, 4 Valdez, 58 Walter (big drop off)

SEA: 13 Woo, 20 Gilbert, 28 Castillo, 30 Kirby

TOR: 14 Gausman, 22 Bassitt, 36 Berrios

Even without Anthony, the bottom of our order looks better than most teams, and if we get Abreu back & healthy, maybe the top and middle of our orser can keep pace with other AL contenders with bigger star power.

ERA- Leaders (120+ IP)

43 Nate TEX (IL)

53 Skubal DET

57 Brown HOU

62 Crochet BOS

65 Rasmussen TBR

66 de Grom TEX

71 Bello BOS

9. Fried NYY 73

10. Rodon 78

T10. Giolito 78

WE have 3 in the top 10!!!

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

ERA- Leaders (120+ IP)

43 Nate TEX (IL)

53 Skubal DET

57 Brown HOU

62 Crochet BOS

65 Rasmussen TBR

66 de Grom TEX

71 Bello BOS

9. Fried NYY 73

10. Rodon 78

T10. Giolito 78

WE have 3 in the top 10!!!

 

 

I just don't get how Warren with the 2nd worst WHIP in the AL is ranked ahead of Bello and Gio? They each have at least twice the WAR... even Schmidt and Schlitter have better stats at the back end of NY's rotation.

[Duran Is The Man]

45 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I just don't get how Warren with the 2nd worst WHIP in the AL is ranked ahead of Bello and Gio? They each have at least twice the WAR... even Schmidt and Schlitter have better stats at the back end of NY's rotation.

yeah...that ain't right. no way he should be ranked better than them. makes me wonder about fWAR.

[mvp 78]

54 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I just don't get how Warren with the 2nd worst WHIP in the AL is ranked ahead of Bello and Gio? They each have at least twice the WAR... even Schmidt and Schlitter have better stats at the back end of NY's rotation.

Warren k's people and his ERA is worse than his xFIP. Bello doesn't k people and his ERA is a lot better than his xFIP. 

Warren and Bello are roughly equal in fWAR, but Bello is almost triple in bWAR. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yeah...that ain't right. no way he should be ranked better than them. makes me wonder about fWAR.

It's why people need to look at the whole picture, not just the WAR calc for a good argument.

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Im still thinking Duran is going to turn into playoff monster.  Something about his crazy eyes and intensity.  Also, Story is a pro;s pro.  Without researching, I would bet money that Story shows up at the park every day at the exact same time.  Dude prob doesnt drink night before games.  Like a true pro. And Anthony may even come back for the playoffs.  Right now, we need no new injuries and Bregman to snap out of his funk.  And Bello to keep rolling.

Im not overly concerned about Crochet.  I say skip his next start. And I know we dont have ample depth to do that, but I think we gotta.  Needs some recovery.  

All very reasonable although this year Duran can't hit lefties.  

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's why people need to look at the whole picture, not just the WAR calc for a good argument.

Isn't the argument that WAR "looks at the whole picture?"

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Isn't the argument that WAR "looks at the whole picture?"

Sure, but there are two WAR calculations that come up with completely different amounts. There is no one true WAR and no one true measurement that determines how that whole picture should be valued. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure, but there are two WAR calculations that come up with completely different amounts. There is no one true WAR and no one true measurement that determines how that whole picture should be valued. 

Yes, I understand that, and I've always felt fWAR was better, but lately I'm beginning to wonder.

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 hours ago, Brandon Glick said:

How are you feeling about the Red Sox right now?

I like their chances of winning today, for sure

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I understand that, and I've always felt fWAR was better, but lately I'm beginning to wonder.

I think either WAR has a value, but it's just relative. You can't just say "Warren is better because his fWAR is higher." Per Statcast, Bello has a pitching run value that's well above average and Warren's is well below average. Warren gets barrelled more often and induces less groundballs. Seems like Bello is a better bet going forward. fWAR has always had some "interesting" outliers (Kluber's 3.1 fWAR in '22, for example). 

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think either WAR has a value, but it's just relative. You can't just say "Warren is better because his fWAR is higher." Per Statcast, Bello has a pitching run value that's well above average and Warren's is well below average. Warren gets barrelled more often and induces less groundballs. Seems like Bello is a better bet going forward. fWAR has always had some "interesting" outliers (Kluber's 3.1 fWAR in '22, for example). 

Is it fair to say fWAR values or overvalues FIP or xFIP, where as bWAR does not?

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Is it fair to say fWAR values or overvalues FIP or xFIP, where as bWAR does not?

Seems like it?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I feel good about our chances to make the playoffs, and when you consider that 3 SP'ers usually get about 80-90% of all playoff starts, I think that gives us a boost. I think we can compete with our top 3 starters, and Tolle might be a plus #4.

fWAR Rankings by AL contenders:

DET: 1 Skubal, 21 Flaherty, 29 Mize

NYY: 5 Fried, 16 Rodon, 23 Warren

BOS: 2 Crochet, 25 Bello, 32 Giolito

HOU: 3 Brown, 4 Valdez, 58 Walter (big drop off)

SEA: 13 Woo, 20 Gilbert, 28 Castillo, 30 Kirby

TOR: 14 Gausman, 22 Bassitt, 36 Berrios

Even without Anthony, the bottom of our order looks better than most teams, and if we get Abreu back & healthy, maybe the top and middle of our orser can keep pace with other AL contenders with bigger star power.

From what I've heard today Abreu is quite a ways from coming back.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I like their chances of winning today, for sure

I like their chances of not losing today better.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Isn't the argument that WAR "looks at the whole picture?"

Edwin Starr explains WAR better than any of us.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I like their chances of not losing today better.

Undefeated!

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Btw, it appears that the Astros' Valdez is the biggest POS in MLB. His hitting his own catcher with a fastball was just one of a few sh**tty incidences he's had this season.

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I like their chances of winning today, for sure

I like their chances of NOT LOSING today more

 

OOPS....someone beat me to it....