Article: Even if the Red Sox are Buyers, These Players Could be on the Move

[Alex Mayes]

The Red Sox look as though they are in a place to be buyers just days away from the trade deadline. With reports that Jarren Duran is now off the market, it may seem like Boston has no intention of dealing players from the big league roster. Not so!

Below, we’re going to break down three major league contributors and the case for trading them, and some trade comps to see what a return could look like. While predicting trade packages is nearly impossible, knowing that this is very much a sellers market means that a return coming back to Boston would likely be even a bit more favorable than the recent examples.

Aroldis Chapman, LHP

Why He Should be Traded
I figured I’d start with the most controversial name. The Red Sox don’t currently have an answer to replace Chapman in the bullpen, though Garrett Whitlock is making a strong case to be in that conversation. Regardless, that shouldn’t stop the front office from listening to offers on their lefty closer. Why? He’s 37 years old and on a one-year, $10.75 million deal. He’s had a career resurgence in Boston this season and that’s fantastic, but it would be foolish to expect this to continue past 2025. The Red Sox shouldn’t entertain locking him into a multi-year contract, so the smart move here is to trade him while the market is losing pitching targets left and right. The market for Chapman will never be hotter and the Red Sox need to capitalize on that. His 1.30 ERA over 41 2/3 innings is incredible, but as we saw when he exited the finale against the Dodgers with back tightness, things may be going in the other direction for Chapman. If that’s the case, holding onto him instead of selling incredibly high is the absolute worst thing the team can do.

Recent Trade Comp - Aroldis Chapman in 2023
We don’t have to look far to have an easy trade comp for Chapman. Let’s wind the clock back just a few seasons to 2023, when the Kansas City Royals swapped Chapman to the Texas Rangers for Cole Ragans and Roni Cabrera. Ragans, who is currently injured, is the No. 2 starter for the Royals when he’s healthy. The Red Sox are rumored to be interested in a starter of that caliber, and if they want to actually land that at the deadline, Chapman could be at the center of that package. Trading Chapman would require the Sox to bring in another elite level closer at some point down the road, but this would be the right move in the long-term for the franchise.

Walker Buehler, RHP

Why He Should be Traded 
The eye test isn’t a thing Buehler will pass while he’s in Boston. His postseason success in 2024 likely gave the Red Sox confidence to bring him in and hope they could finish unlocking whatever needed to be figured out so he could be a solid major league contributor again. So far, that’s failed to happen. When Buehler is up for his turn through the rotation, there is very little confidence that the game isn’t going to get out of hand quickly. His 5.72 ERA has come down thanks to a handful of low-scoring outings lately, but his walk percentage is at 10.1% while his strikeout rate is just 17.6%. We know he’s not throwing gas anymore, but you expect him to be able to get more swings and misses. He’s just not doing that though. The value here, low though it may be, is present for a team that is looking for a back-end starter with postseason experience.

Recent Trade Comp - Martin Perez in 2024
Last season, in an attempt to push themselves over the edge in a loaded NL West division, the Padres traded for LHP Martin Perez. In the deal, they sent LHP Ronaldys Jimenez to the Pirates. Jimenez was playing rookie ball in the Dominican Summer League when he was traded and is currently with the FCL Pirates with a 2-1 record and a 4.18 ERA. If Buehler is moved, a deal on the fringes of the organization is about all you could hope to get in return for him. This would be addition by subtraction more than anything, and only advisable if the Red Sox swing a deal for another starter.

David Hamilton, UTIL

Why He Should be Traded
We all know that David Hamilton is on the team due to his versatility and ability to be a menace on the basepaths. Just look at when he came in as a pinch-runner in the top of the ninth against the Twins. He stole second and third to give the team a chance to score, which they did. His value lies in his speed, and the Red Sox have enough speed to be able to make Hamilton available in the right deal. He’s slashing just .179/.229/.276, and while he plays a passable second base, he’s not needed once Marcelo Mayer returns from his wrist injury. He’s still relatively young, only 27, and won’t reach free agency until 2030. While there’s not a ton of meat on the bone here, a team looking for a late-inning spark on its bench could do far worse than Hamilton.

Recent Trade Comp - Tommy Edman in 2024
While not a perfect comp, the trade of Edman from the Cardinals to the Dodgers is the closest I think we can get here. Edman was part of a three-team dea,l so that complicates things a bit, but the Cardinals received cash back for Edman. As part of that trade, they also received recently-traded starter Erick Fedde and journeyman Tommy Pham. We already know that the Yankees are interested in Hamilton, so that should indicate that other teams may be sniffing around him as well. If the Sox are willing to listen on Hamilton, then a deal for him straight up likely won’t net much in return. If he’s part of a larger package, or another multi-team swap, then Boston could easily come out on top in that trade.

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[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

IMHO, only Anthony, Bregman, Crochet, and Narvaez are untouchable. I'll also throw in Rafaela.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

There are core players that need to be in place if they are to have a chance at fighting through the rough schedule and making the playoffs.  All others are expendable but not to be given away.  Fair market value must be received for each trade.

Keepers include:

Anthony, Duran, Rafaela, Bregman, Story, Campbell, Mayer, Crochet, Giolito, Chapman.

Remember, these key players make up the CORE players for 2026 and beyond.  Any non-signed player for 2026 needs to get signed now or in the off season prior to the World Series since it's likely BOS won't be participating in it and they need to beat teams to the punch.

NOW HERE IS THE KEY TO MAKING THE PLAYOFFS:

2 SPs that are SP2 skilled if possible and no less than SP3 skilled.

2 relievers - 1 RH and 1 LH and one of them with closing experience

A starting catcher!!!  

Narvaez stats by month:

Mar-April - .218/.274/.385/.658   Below average-to-average month

May - .356/.427/.534/.961   OUTSTANDING MONTH!!

June - .254/.357/.434/780   Solid Month

July - .197/.242/.361/.603   HORRENDOUS MONTH

Here is the thing.  Narvaez has no previous MLB experience.  He was a very average minor league player for the Yankees that was easily overlooked based on performance.  His MAY numbers are such an enormous aberration you can't think he can repeat the numbers.  His June numbers can be hoped for, but they are better than his minor league numbers too.  Past performance suggests Narvaez is at best a back-up catcher going forward.  Trading Teel was a huge mistake.  Don't make the same mistake we made with Wong and think he has a future that resembles his peak performance.

Let's hope Breslow makes it happen, and this team can make the playoffs in 2025.

 

 

 

 

[Hitch]

I'll say it until I'm blue in the face, but even if/when we buy, we should trade Chapman. It is too big an opportunity to pass up on. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

I'll say it until I'm blue in the face, but even if/when we buy, we should trade Chapman. It is too big an opportunity to pass up on. 

It would be death to the 2025 Red Sox season.  No point buying if you're doing that.  Anyway it's not happening.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It would be death to the 2025 Red Sox season.  No point buying if you're doing that.  Anyway it's not happening.

"We're going to be buyers and win more games without Devers." 

I'm not sure where in that calculation allows for a trade of Chapman. You'd have to then trade for someone else's closer and it seems like a lot of work to just make your pen worse and swap prospects. 

[Bellhorn04]

4 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

There are core players that need to be in place if they are to have a chance at fighting through the rough schedule and making the playoffs.  All others are expendable but not to be given away.  Fair market value must be received for each trade.

Keepers include:

Anthony, Duran, Rafaela, Bregman, Story, Campbell, Mayer, Crochet, Giolito, Chapman.

Remember, these key players make up the CORE players for 2026 and beyond.  Any non-signed player for 2026 needs to get signed now or in the off season prior to the World Series since it's likely BOS won't be participating in it and they need to beat teams to the punch.

NOW HERE IS THE KEY TO MAKING THE PLAYOFFS:

2 SPs that are SP2 skilled if possible and no less than SP3 skilled.

2 relievers - 1 RH and 1 LH and one of them with closing experience

A starting catcher!!!  

Narvaez stats by month:

Mar-April - .218/.274/.385/.658   Below average-to-average month

May - .356/.427/.534/.961   OUTSTANDING MONTH!!

June - .254/.357/.434/780   Solid Month

July - .197/.242/.361/.603   HORRENDOUS MONTH

Here is the thing.  Narvaez has no previous MLB experience.  He was a very average minor league player for the Yankees that was easily overlooked based on performance.  His MAY numbers are such an enormous aberration you can't think he can repeat the numbers.  His June numbers can be hoped for, but they are better than his minor league numbers too.  Past performance suggests Narvaez is at best a back-up catcher going forward.  Trading Teel was a huge mistake.  Don't make the same mistake we made with Wong and think he has a future that resembles his peak performance.

Let's hope Breslow makes it happen, and this team can make the playoffs in 2025.

 

 

 

 

Trading Teel for Crochet was a huge mistake?  

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Trading Teel for Crochet was a huge mistake?  

I'm sure they would have taken Allan Castro, Blaze Jordan and Conrad Cason instead! 🤪

[Alex Mayes]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

I'll say it until I'm blue in the face, but even if/when we buy, we should trade Chapman. It is too big an opportunity to pass up on. 

This is the biggest thing. You’re sitting on an absolute gold mine with Chapman. Trade him and recoup assets then get a closer who isn’t 37 and can actually hang around past this season. 

[Bellhorn04]

18 minutes ago, Alex Mayes said:

This is the biggest thing. You’re sitting on an absolute gold mine with Chapman. Trade him and recoup assets then get a closer who isn’t 37 and can actually hang around past this season. 

We'd have to give up a lot to get a good closer, it works both ways.  The Red Sox need to add to the bullpen, and swapping closers doesn't do that.  And what closers having great seasons are even available? 

Chapman has been sensational.  Trading him would be a kick in the privates to this team. 

[Bellhorn04]

Buying while trading Chapman is just a wacko idea in my opinion.  I think Breslow would be seriously risking his job if he goes that route.

He already made one in-season move that's haunting us by trading Priester. (He's also made some very good moves.)

[notin]

56 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Buying while trading Chapman is just a wacko idea in my opinion.  I think Breslow would be seriously risking his job if he goes that route.

He already made one in-season move that's haunting us by trading Priester. (He's also made some very good moves.)

Since he traded Devers, claimed it wouldn’t derail the season, and was right, I find it hard to believe Chapman is untouchable…

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It would be death to the 2025 Red Sox season.  No point buying if you're doing that.  Anyway it's not happening.

It really wouldn't, and it wouldn't be risking his job. 

But yes, almost certainly not happening, sadly. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Alex Mayes said:

This is the biggest thing. You’re sitting on an absolute gold mine with Chapman. Trade him and recoup assets then get a closer who isn’t 37 and can actually hang around past this season. 

I think if you trade Chapman, you need to replace him internally.  A closer that “isn’t 37” and has additional control likely costs as much or more in prospects than the Sox will get for Chapman,  making it at best a break even on the “gold mine.”   Unless the new closer sucks, I suppose…

[Hitch]

Just now, notin said:

I think if you trade Chapman, you need to replace him internally.  A closer that “isn’t 37” and has additional likely costs as much or more in prospects than the Sox will get for Chapman,  making it at best a break even on the “gold mine.”   Unless the new closer sucks, I suppose…

You definitely go internal. Get another half-decent pen arm to fill the taken void. 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

You definitely go internal. Get another half-decent pen arm to fill the taken void. 

Best candidates become Whitlock and Hicks.  Despite his rattled performance Monday, Hicks has closing experience and Breslow referred to him as a shutdown reliever after the acquisition.  Of course, we did expect him to talk the incoming players up a bit.  It’s part of the dance he has to do..

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Hitch said:

It really wouldn't, and it wouldn't be risking his job. 

But yes, almost certainly not happening, sadly. 

Not every asset can be cashed in.  You might have to to grips with the potential reality that the Sox will let Chapman go after the season and all they will get for him is $11 million in uncommitted payroll…

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm sure they would have taken Allan Castro, Blaze Jordan and Conrad Cason instead! 🤪

Slow down, Lyle Overpay!!

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Not every asset can be cashed in.  You might have to to grips with the potential reality that the Sox will let Chapman go after the season and all they will get for him is $11 million in uncommitted payroll…

Oh I've accepted that's all we're getting. And I will complain about it for months, especially if he gets hurt or goes off the boil.

[Hitch]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Best candidates become Whitlock and Hicks.  Despite his rattled performance Monday, Hicks has closing experience and Breslow referred to him as a shutdown reliever after the acquisition.  Of course, we did expect him to talk the incoming players up a bit.  It’s part of the dance he has to do..

Slaten isn't far away. Another potential pick.

[notin]

On these three:

I do not expect Chapman to be dealt, but it wouldn’t surprise me either.

I do not expect Buehler to be dealt.  He is still owed about $7mill on the season and not exactly making himself a desirable candidate.

Hamilton: I actually do expect it.  We’ve  seen the Sox acquire baserunners for the postseason, like Quinton Berry, and more famously, Dave Roberts.  Other teams  can and will see some value here.  Not enough to give up anything we care about, however…

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We'd have to give up a lot to get a good closer, it works both ways.  The Red Sox need to add to the bullpen, and swapping closers doesn't do that.  And what closers having great seasons are even available? 

Chapman has been sensational.  Trading him would be a kick in the privates to this team. 

Bednar. But Bednar has next year booked, so I honestly think hed cost more.  Buy + sell economics are flawed

[Bellhorn04]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

Since he traded Devers, claimed it wouldn’t derail the season, and was right, I find it hard to believe Chapman is untouchable…

Bad parallel IMHO.  They only traded Devers because of attitude issues.  Chapman's attitude has been superb.

[Bellhorn04]

29 minutes ago, Hitch said:

It really wouldn't, and it wouldn't be risking his job. 

But yes, almost certainly not happening, sadly. 

It's not happening because it's wacko. 😄

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Bednar. But Bednar has next year booked, so I honestly think hed cost more.  Buy + sell economics are flawed

Deeply flawed, yes.

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

On these three:

I do not expect Chapman to be dealt, but it wouldn’t surprise me either.

I do not expect Buehler to be dealt.  He is still owed about $7mill on the season and not exactly making himself a desirable candidate.

Hamilton: I actually do expect it.  We’ve  seen the Sox acquire baserunners for the postseason, like Quinton Berry, and more famously, Dave Roberts.  Other teams  can and will see some value here.  Not enough to give up anything we care about, however…

So wouldn't he have postseason value for the Sox?

[notin]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Bad parallel IMHO.  They only traded Devers because of attitude issues.  Chapman's attitude has been superb.

The why doesn’t matter.  The fact is they traded their longest tenured player with the largest contract in team history and who, by the way, after a very slow start, put up a .960 OPS with 15 HRs Igor the Sox.

If it’s a bad parallel, it’s because you’re trying to make a closer more important than the biggest bat in the lineup.  Or because Devers was traded 6 weeks ago and still has more bWAR for Boston than Chapman does…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So wouldn't he have postseason value for the Sox?

Maybe but this Sox team has more speed than many previous years.  It’s very possible that a team with two committed RHH platoon bats can find greater use for that final roster spot.

The 2004 Dodgers made the postseason, but still dealt away Dave Roberts. It does happen…

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

If it’s a bad parallel, it’s because you’re trying to make a closer more important than the biggest bat in the lineup.  Or because Devers was traded 6 weeks ago and still has more bWAR for Boston than Chapman does…

And you know better than to compare the WAR of an everyday player to that of a reliever who pitches 60 innings or so.

Chapman, Whitlock, Weissert, J Wilson and Bernardino have a combined bWAR of 4.2. 

Trading them for 3 everyday players with a total bWAR of 4.3 would not be smart. 

 

 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Alex Mayes said:

This is the biggest thing. You’re sitting on an absolute gold mine with Chapman. Trade him and recoup assets then get a closer who isn’t 37 and can actually hang around past this season. 

Who? You are going to spend MORE assets to get that closer at the deadline than to just acquire them in the offseason. This is an unreasonable strategy. Rearranging deck chairs to spend more assets to potentially put a worse product on the field. 

Just run it out with Chapman. Sign a FA closer. Trade for another late inning reliever that you can develop into the future closer.