Article: The Red Sox Must Outlast Elite Competition Before Schedule Softens

[Finley Rogan]

Following their series against the Phillies, the Red Sox will travel back home to take on the Dodgers—their third consecutive series against a National League division-leading team. The Red Sox currently have the eighth-strongest remaining schedule based on opponent win percentage (.509). These rankings can shift dramatically as teams can vastly improve or weaken their win percentage in just a few weeks. However, it can still be used as a solid benchmark to assess a schedule. Aside from the Rangers, no team in the American League wild card race plays a tougher remaining schedule than the Red Sox.

Between now and August 14, the Red Sox will take on the Dodgers, Twins, and Royals three times, and the Astros six times. The Twins and Royals each sit just below .500, and by the time the Red Sox play each team, they may have already sold off some pieces. The Houston games will be tough, as the Astros have been one of baseball's hotter teams in the last couple of months. The good news for Red Sox fans is that the team has held its own against MLB’s best teams, as they have a record of 31-30 against teams who are over .500 as of publishing.

Assuming the Red Sox can stay afloat through the first half of August, they will be in a good position entering September. In the second half of the season's penultimate month, they play the Orioles six times, the Marlins three times, and the Pirates three times. Although Baltimore and Miami could be frisky, they will both likely be fully out of contention by mid-August. The other series is a four-game set in Yankee Stadium, which will likely have key division or wild card implications. 

September is another month with an easy and tough stretch on either side. The Red Sox will get to play the Athletics six times, the Guardians three times, and the D-backs three times. That's another set of teams which have shown the ability to play competitive stretches this season, but all will be below .500 and perhaps with weakened rosters compared to what we see now. It will be important for the Red Sox to win more than half of those games, because they play the Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays and Tigers in four of the final five series of the season.

The Mariners' opponents for the rest of the season combine for a winning percentage of .487, and the Yankees' opponents sit at .498. Obviously, the difference is not huge, but no fan of a wild card contender would rather play the Red Sox's remaining schedule. 

A tough closing stretch will obviously determine if Boston can clinch a postseason position, but it will also show fans how a young and hungry team performs in a simulated postseason environment. Playing numerous games in a row against contending teams can be crucial in the development of this Red Sox team, which lacks a ton of experience in October. Once we are through mid-August, the Red Sox remaining schedule will look soft compared to other teams, but a month later in mid-September, no team will have a tougher finish. It is crucial to keep building up a lead in the wild card race and playing well against weak competition. If the Red Sox can clinch a playoff spot, everyone will hope it is in a more comfortable fashion than 2021.

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[TedYazPapiMookie]

Boston needs a few things to go their way if they hope to make the playoffs:

1 - NO KEY INJURIES

2 - As the pretenders start to fade the prospects must hit more and the veterans need to finish with career years.  Campbell needs to return to play 1B, Mayer must play good defense at 2B and not get hurt, Story needs to stay healthy and stay clutch, Bregman needs to get back to where he was hitting-wise prior to his injury, Anthony needs to finish above .275 and play LF, Duran needs to hit over .300 and play CF and Rafaela needs to hit .325 and play RF.  Yoshida/Abreu/Refsnyder together must be the equivalent of an excellent DH.  Narvaez needs to stop his skid and Wong needs to be replaced.  Toro and Gonzalez both need to slow their regression so Campbell can come back when he's ready.

3 - Crochet, Giolito and Buehler need to pitch at exceptional levels.  Breslow needs to find two effective starters and one set-up man who can close along with Chapman.

4 - Cora needs to be replaced with a real manager who understands the game and doesn't play games with the batting order, the pitching substitutions and stays positive when things downturn like in past AUG/SEP time frames while facing the AL East who they dominate early but not late.

[Bellhorn04]

36 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Boston needs a few things to go their way if they hope to make the playoffs:

1 - NO KEY INJURIES

2 - As the pretenders start to fade the prospects must hit more and the veterans need to finish with career years.  Campbell needs to return to play 1B, Mayer must play good defense at 2B and not get hurt, Story needs to stay healthy and stay clutch, Bregman needs to get back to where he was hitting-wise prior to his injury, Anthony needs to finish above .275 and play LF, Duran needs to hit over .300 and play CF and Rafaela needs to hit .325 and play RF.  Yoshida/Abreu/Refsnyder together must be the equivalent of an excellent DH.  Narvaez needs to stop his skid and Wong needs to be replaced.  Toro and Gonzalez both need to slow their regression so Campbell can come back when he's ready.

3 - Crochet, Giolito and Buehler need to pitch at exceptional levels.  Breslow needs to find two effective starters and one set-up man who can close along with Chapman.

4 - Cora needs to be replaced with a real manager who understands the game and doesn't play games with the batting order, the pitching substitutions and stays positive when things downturn like in past AUG/SEP time frames while facing the AL East who they dominate early but not late.

And what do you think are the actual chances of Breslow acquiring 2 starters and replacing Cora?  The chances are zero so why bother engaging in such fanciful thinking?

[mvp 78]

There already are key injuries IMO. 

Mayer could be out for a while and there isn't a good solution at 2b. They will end up putting Rafaela at 2b most likely, which helps the offense, but hurts the defense (Masa will have to put on football pads to play LF with Duran out there apparently). 

Bregman is now physically limited. We don't know if his leg will get better over time, or if it just needs offseason rest. 

Dobbins is out.

Tanner is out.

Significant 60 day IL: Casas, Crawford, Winckowski, Slaten (all expected to be contributors prior to the season)

[Bellhorn04]

Trading Priester looks worse all the time.  I like Breslow but he needs to not trade away starting pitchers any more.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Trading Priester looks worse all the time.  I like Breslow but he needs to not trade away starting pitchers any more.

You're not considering the value they got back. 

John Holobetz SP #33

Yophery Rodriguez SP #42

Marcus Phillips CBA pick #33

Those guys could be anything in 3-4 years!!! They could even be as good as a Quinn Priester!!!

[Bellhorn04]

I must say this post-ASB schedule for the Sox was borderline sadistic.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Trading Priester looks worse all the time.  I like Breslow but he needs to not trade away starting pitchers any more.

He might turn into Bronson Arroyo -- not a deadline deal, but the worst Epstein trade, acquiring Wily Mo Pena, who gave the Red Sox negative WAR in the equivalent of a full season.

Arroyo started at least 32 games for the next eight years in Cincy, averaging 211 innings, winning over 100 games, and posting 20.6 WAR. And he was never injured playing his guitar.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And what do you think are the actual chances of Breslow acquiring 2 starters and replacing Cora?  The chances are zero so why bother engaging in such fanciful thinking?

Seriously?  Because I was stating what was needed.  Was that supposed to be a trick question?  I missed the trick.  I think Breslow needs to read the room.  With Cora throwing out ridiculous line-ups daily, he's got to wait and see if the team can stay competitive in the second half.  The losing isn't over because the team isn't back to .500 yet.  

I prefer Breslow prepare for 2026 and hire a real manager and start looking at potential batting orders for 2026 and fielding positions.  If they make the playoffs, great but they are not likely to go anywhere since they don't really compete well with good teams like they will face in the playoffs.  So, focus on a manager and bring him in now and change the clubhouse in a positive way then start setting the table for the 2026 run.

The batting order needs to be Duran CF, Rafaela RF, Anthony LF, Bregman 3B, Mayer 2B, Story SS, Yoshida DH, Campbell 1B and Narvaez C.  If Casas beats out Campbell at 1B move him behind Bregman in the order and slide Story behind him then Yoshida then Narvaez.  If Abreu is kept and can beat out Yoshida at DH or split time at DH move Abreu into Yoshida's spot.  

The pitching is set at the top with Crochet.  A SP2 and SP3 would be nice to add before ST in 2026 with some of Devers' money.  Giolito and Buehler may or may not be back depending on how they finish this season.  The pitching staff is really Breslow's primary need for focus right now.  The hitting is ready to go forward into the 2026 season with just some small tweaks that Cora won't do because he insists on playing his favorites and playing his bench too much.

I don't know if Breslow can find the right two SPs but he can't be looking at 2025 he must be signing extensions with the worthy SPs.  My preference would be Alcantara and Cabrera with Gallen as a third option if one of the first two won't sign an extension as part of the trade.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Sam 'Oatmeal' Kennedy was on WEEI this morning. When asked about adding a top-shelf starter to the team, Mr Kennedy replied "We like our starting staff, but we'll continue to look."

I feel Sam should leave baseball operations and move into politics where BS is more appropriate.

[Hugh2]

31 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Sam 'Oatmeal' Kennedy was on WEEI this morning. When asked about adding a top-shelf starter to the team, Mr Kennedy replied "We like our starting staff, but we'll continue to look."

I feel Sam should leave baseball operations and move into politics where BS is more appropriate.

But....how many owners say "yeah I hate our team, these guys suck f*** em"

What owner has ever acted like that?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

52 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Sam 'Oatmeal' Kennedy was on WEEI this morning. When asked about adding a top-shelf starter to the team, Mr Kennedy replied "We like our starting staff, but we'll continue to look."

I feel Sam should leave baseball operations and move into politics where BS is more appropriate.

Lay off Sam. He said, "We like our starting staff" but strategically left out "when they are pitching."

 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

There already are key injuries IMO. 

Mayer could be out for a while and there isn't a good solution at 2b. They will end up putting Rafaela at 2b most likely, which helps the offense, but hurts the defense (Masa will have to put on football pads to play LF with Duran out there apparently). 

Bregman is now physically limited. We don't know if his leg will get better over time, or if it just needs offseason rest. 

Dobbins is out.

Tanner is out.

Significant 60 day IL: Casas, Crawford, Winckowski, Slaten (all expected to be contributors prior to the season)

Not one injury that is significant except potentially Bregman's.  The others were out when they won 10 in a row.  Mayer's .228 average shouldn't be too hard to replace, and his defense is no great shakes at 2B either.  It's the weakest of the 3 positions (3B, SS and 2B) at the MLB level.  Sogard can be recruited to fill in for him for now and frankly Campbell seems to be turning the corner and regaining his hitting confidence, he already has a HR tonight after being on base 4 of 5 times in the last game.

The Red Sox are out of excuses since they won 10 with Bregman out for 7 of the wins.  Dobbins and Tanner would be great adds but they weren't playing during the 10 wins.  Let's face it, WAS COL and TB just aren't that good and CHC and PHI are that good.  BOS lucked out on both road wins.  The PHI manager must have dozed off in the dugout to allow his starter to get pummeled that badly.

The injuries to stars are the only injuries that need to be worried about as referenced in my first comment.

[Bellhorn04]

14 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

The Red Sox are out of excuses since they won 10 with Bregman out for 7 of the wins.  Dobbins and Tanner would be great adds but they weren't playing during the 10 wins.  Let's face it, WAS COL and TB just aren't that good and CHC and PHI are that good.  BOS lucked out on both road wins.  The PHI manager must have dozed off in the dugout to allow his starter to get pummeled that badly.

How exactly was the 6-1 win against CHC lucky?  You're calling it luck because they were behind 1-0 after 6 innings?

As for the Philly game, prior to the grand slam by Gonzalez, Luzardo had given up 1 hit.  So  'pummeled' is a totally misleading description.  What happened was he got wild and walked the bases loaded.      

[TedYazPapiMookie]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

How exactly was the 6-1 win against CHC lucky?  You're calling it luck because they were behind 1-0 after 6 innings?

As for the Philly game, prior to the grand slam by Gonzalez, Luzardo had given up 1 hit.  So  'pummeled' is a totally misleading description.  What happened was he got wild and walked the bases loaded.      

You like to argue without respect to making sense.  The CUBS are a much better team as is PHILLY.

Against teams at that level, only Crochet stands a chance to win and if it's someone else, it's lucky.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

You like to argue without respect to making sense.  The CUBS are a much better team as is PHILLY.

Against teams at that level, only Crochet stands a chance to win and if it's someone else, it's lucky.

Crochet was in fact the winning pitcher against the Cubs but you called it lucky anyway.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Crochet was in fact the winning pitcher against the Cubs but you called it lucky anyway.

Crochet left the game losing.  That's why he was lucky to get the win.  Normally, when he wins he's ahead when he leaves the game.  The Cub bullpen collapse for that one game was lucky in my opinion.