Could The Boston Red Sox Land Dylan Cease From The San Diego Padres?

[Matthew Lenz]

The San Diego Padres plan to be buyers at the deadline in anticipation of a playoff push. They may also be sellers, and the Chicago Cubs could be one of their suitors.

Buster Olney of ESPN is reporting that San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease is available at the trade deadline, and that "AL East" teams have discussed the 30-year-old free agent-to-be.

Across 20 starts and 108.2 innings pitched, Cease's. ERA currently stands at 4.64, which is more than a full run higher than his FIP, suggesting he's experienced some bad luck or been hurt by his defense. Cease continues to be a high-strikeout pitcher, with a K% of 30.0% and a BB% of 8.4%, translating to an impressive K-BB% of 21.6%. He will be a free agent at the end of the season with incredible upside, despite his underperforming surface stats. Given the shallow starter's market and the numerous teams seeking rotation help, his cost will be substantial. Any team acquiring the right-hander will likely need to overpay to acquire him. Moreover, given the Padres' position in the playoff picture, they are likely looking for a combination of MLB-ready and prospect pieces.

Should the Boston Red Sox do what it takes to acquire Dylan cease? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[mvp 78]

Overpay for a 4.64 starter. Where do I sign up? 

High BB/9. High HR/9. High BABIP (same rate as '21, '23). Low LOB%. Gets barreled like he's playing Donkey Kong (12th percentile). He's a two pitch pitcher (88% slider or 4 seam) and the FB has a negative run value. 

When he's putting it all together, it's great to watch. He can fall apart really quickly though. Not worth an overpay for only 2 months. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Overpay for a 4.64 starter. Where do I sign up? 

High BB/9. High HR/9. High BABIP (same rate as '21, '23). Low LOB%. Gets barreled like he's playing Donkey Kong (12th percentile). He's a two pitch pitcher (88% slider or 4 seam) and the FB has a negative run value. 

When he's putting it all together, it's great to watch. He can fall apart really quickly though. Not worth an overpay for only 2 months. 

Much rather have Cabrera, Alcantara or Gallen.  What would be great is if the Astros didn't resign Valdez and we could use some Devers money on him but that is highly unlikely, but it never hurts to dream!!

[Hugh2]

17 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Overpay for a 4.64 starter. Where do I sign up? 

High BB/9. High HR/9. High BABIP (same rate as '21, '23). Low LOB%. Gets barreled like he's playing Donkey Kong (12th percentile). He's a two pitch pitcher (88% slider or 4 seam) and the FB has a negative run value. 

When he's putting it all together, it's great to watch. He can fall apart really quickly though. Not worth an overpay for only 2 months. 

You know Dylan Cease can be much better than that, and even if he's as good as he is now the Sox could still use a starter to lengthen the rotation. 

Is he going to be an overpay? probably, but any more than the rest of the pitchers going at the deadline? if anything he might come a little cheaper than he otherwise would have given his performance this year.  Which is at least partially due to absolutely terrible defense behind him. 

At the very least, he's going to be an upgrade over Buehler/FItts, and if he turns back into the pitcher he was for several years prior (he's just 29) he'll be a 1-2 punch with Crochet at the top of the rotation. 

I'm not saying I'm personally 100% for it, but I'm certainly not against it. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

You know Dylan Cease can be much better than that, and even if he's as good as he is now the Sox could still use a starter to lengthen the rotation. 

Is he going to be an overpay? probably, but any more than the rest of the pitchers going at the deadline? if anything he might come a little cheaper than he otherwise would have given his performance this year.  Which is at least partially due to absolutely terrible defense behind him. 

At the very least, he's going to be an upgrade over Buehler/FItts, and if he turns back into the pitcher he was for several years prior (he's just 29) he'll be a 1-2 punch with Crochet at the top of the rotation. 

I'm not saying I'm personally 100% for it, but I'm certainly not against it. 

I'm not for overpaying for Cease. He doesn't do it for me. He's just a wildly inconsistent guy and if you simply want to lengthen the rotation, you can get a similar option with a cheaper deal. If he's pitching this bad at Petco, I don't want to see him at Fenway.

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not for overpaying for Cease. He doesn't do it for me. He's just a wildly inconsistent guy and if you simply want to lengthen the rotation, you can get a similar option with a cheaper deal. If he's pitching this bad at Petco, I don't want to see him at Fenway.

I don't fully disagree, but if the Sox see something in him they think they can tweak he could be the steal of the deadline. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

I don't fully disagree, but if the Sox see something in him they think they can tweak he could be the steal of the deadline. 

It's not a steal if it's an overpay IMO. 

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

It's not a steal if it's an overpay IMO. 

It's not a forgone conclusion that it is or isn't.  The future has not been written, the ink is not dry. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

It's not a forgone conclusion that it is or isn't.  The future has not been written, the ink is not dry. 

Per the article above, "his cost will be substantial." Therefore, each one of my posts concerning Cease has referenced the word "overpay." I'm directly stating "if it's an overpay, I don't want Cease." 

If it's a fair trade, I'm nonplussed about a Cease trade. 

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Per the article above, "his cost will be substantial." Therefore, each one of my posts concerning Cease has referenced the word "overpay." I'm directly stating "if it's an overpay, I don't want Cease." 

If it's a fair trade, I'm nonplussed about a Cease trade. 

In my opinion, regardless of what the article says Cease is going to cost XYZ, if there's a better pitcher trade for out there he's going to cost that much more than XYZ.  I'm not for a Cease trade, but I'm not against it either.  If the cost is fair compared to other pitchers on the market and the Sox have faith in their ability to get him right I'd almost certainly be ok with targeting him. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Crochet is great, but geez -- Crochet, Giolito, Cease... is it wise to rely that much on guys who all pitched on one of the worst teams of all time?

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Crochet is great, but geez -- Crochet, Giolito, Cease... is it wise to rely that much on guys who all pitched on one of the worst teams of all time?

They could probably snag Clevinger too. 

[Hugh2]

31 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Crochet is great, but geez -- Crochet, Giolito, Cease... is it wise to rely that much on guys who all pitched on one of the worst teams of all time?

Yes, You could be the best player in existence.  You could be Babe Ruth, if Babe Ruth was on PED"s and had a baby with Babe Ruth on PED's and then put that baby on PED's and still be on a sucky team if the teams sucks. 

There's a reason why all those guys were shipped out of town on a s***** team. 

[Hugh2]

---

BTV ACCepts this trade. 

Boston Sends Jarren Duran, Jonhanfran Garcia & Walker Buehler to SD for Dylan Cease, Ethan Salas, Kash Mayfield, and Wandy Peralta. 

Odds of this trade happening? .0011% give or take. 

[Bellhorn04]

Cease and Desist this idea.  He's just not pitching very well.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They could probably snag Clevinger too. 

Ask Brett Myers or Jason Kidd or even Lucic about how being a wife beater in Boston goes.

[drewski6]

Wouldnt have had to worry about this if we just signed The Samoan in the offseason.

YEET!

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Ask Brett Myers or Jason Kidd or even Lucic about how being a wife beater in Boston goes.

I was at the Brett Myers game. It went well for the Red Sox. 

[Bellhorn04]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I was at the Brett Myers game. It went well for the Red Sox. 

Tom Gordon holds an interesting place in Red Sox history.  From a Stephen King novel to a pivotal spot in the 2004 ALCS.

[mvp 78]

50 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Tom Gordon holds an interesting place in Red Sox history.  From a Stephen King novel to a pivotal spot in the 2004 ALCS.

Went from being the #2 starter to the closer in the blink of an eye. 

Not sure why he bounced around so much after his injury. He was a very good reliever. 

[notin]

5 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Crochet is great, but geez -- Crochet, Giolito, Cease... is it wise to rely that much on guys who all pitched on one of the worst teams of all time?

Neither Giolito nor Cease were part of that team.

If we’re discounting anyone who EVER pitched for the White Sox, aren’t we thankful for unloading Sale?

[notin]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Ask Brett Myers or Jason Kidd or even Lucic about how being a wife beater in Boston goes.

Was Clevinger a wife beater?  I thought he was just a baby beater…

[notin]

23 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Overpay for a 4.64 starter. Where do I sign up? 

High BB/9. High HR/9. High BABIP (same rate as '21, '23). Low LOB%. Gets barreled like he's playing Donkey Kong (12th percentile). He's a two pitch pitcher (88% slider or 4 seam) and the FB has a negative run value. 

When he's putting it all together, it's great to watch. He can fall apart really quickly though. Not worth an overpay for only 2 months. 

BTV gives Cease a surplus value of $10mill.  That suggests he could be had for any one of David Sandlin $9.8mill), James Tibbs, Mikey Romero , or Yoelin Cespedes.  I doubt he can, but if he could, would you do it?

I expect competition to drive his price up.   But if his value held, I could see moving Cespedes Orin him…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Neither Giolito nor Cease were part of that team.

If we’re discounting anyone who EVER pitched for the White Sox, aren’t we thankful for unloading Sale?

I knew you'd point that out being from Chicago... so you also know Crochet, Gio, Cease and Liam Hendriks all pitched for the team the year before that only lost 101 games -- before they really fell apart.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, notin said:

BTV gives Cease a surplus value of $10mill.  That suggests he could be had for any one of David Sandlin $9.8mill), James Tibbs, Mikey Romero , or Yoelin Cespedes.  I doubt he can, but if he could, would you do it?

I expect competition to drive his price up.   But if his value held, I could see moving Cespedes Orin him…

Baseball Trade Values provides values in a vacuum.

A contending team will likely overpay for a worthwhile starting pitcher at the trade deadline.

Businesses often overpay in an attempt to achieve a desire goal. Baseball is no different.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Per the article above, "his cost will be substantial." Therefore, each one of my posts concerning Cease has referenced the word "overpay." I'm directly stating "if it's an overpay, I don't want Cease." 

If it's a fair trade, I'm nonplussed about a Cease trade. 

There's 4 other teams interested in Cease including the Yankems and the Cubs 

 

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

Baseball Trade Values provides values in a vacuum.

A contending team will likely overpay for a worthwhile starting pitcher at the trade deadline.

Businesses often overpay in an attempt to achieve a desire goal. Baseball is no different.

ADD - 

While I wholeheartedly agree with this statement I think we also must acknowledge that every individual team values players differently. 

I bet if we were to measure the value of the trades that take place on BTV compared to the deadline we'd find some are a lot closer to others, and some are going to be WAY off. 

One thing that we just don't know as fans is how much teams value guys and certainly how much they value the prospects of another team. 

 

[Hugh2]

And I say that as someone who uses BTV all the time.  I think its' a great great tool, but it should be taken with a grain of salt everytime. 

[notin]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

And I say that as someone who uses BTV all the time.  I think its' a great great tool, but it should be taken with a grain of salt everytime. 

It’s just one method of evaluating players and trades.  And it cannot account for teams’ willingness to overpay or whether or not they even want certain players.  
 

Really it’s goal is to determine if trades are fair, but not every team wants their trades to be fair…

[notin]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I knew you'd point that out being from Chicago... so you also know Crochet, Gio, Cease and Liam Hendriks all pitched for the team the year before that only lost 101 games -- before they really fell apart.

Crochet pitched 13 innings, Hendriks pitched 5, and Giolito pitched pretty well…