Article: If Kris Bubic is Available at the Trade Deadline, the Red Sox Need to Pay the Asking Price

[Alex Mayes]

On July 21, ESPN’s Jeff Passan updated his top 50 trade deadline candidates. Notably, the Red Sox only have one name on this list this time around, Jarren Duran at number three with a trade percentage of 25%. More interestingly, though, is the amount of names Passan connected to the Red Sox. Instead of writing them all out, I’ll include Gordo’s tweet listing them:

There are some fascinating names on that list, including a few that we’ve talked about here on Talk Sox, but the name that should stand out to everyone is Kris Bubic. To date, Bubic’s name hasn’t popped up on many radars, as he’s just 27 and still has a year and a half of team control left. The general thought was that Kansas City wouldn’t make him available if they were still in contention for a playoff spot, but those hopes seem to be fading. Cole Ragans is nursing a shoulder injury and the belief is that Seth Lugo is likely on his way out of the door as the deadline draws near. While Lugo would be a huge get for the Sox, Bubic is arguably the best No. 2 starter potentially available on the trade market. 

Bubic isn’t going to blow you away by any means. He has a five-pitch mix that tops out at 92.2 mph on his four-seam fastball and dips down to 83 mph on his sweeper. His changeup and slider come in at almost identical speeds, 85.5 mph for the changeup and 85.4 mph for the slider, while he occasionally throws a sinker that averages 91.7 mph. It's the way he mixes in those offerings that makes him dominant, though. He’s currently working with a 2.38 ERA over 113.2 innings pitched. In those innings, he’s notched 115 strikeouts with a 2.76 FIP, a 24.6% strikeout percentage and a 7.6% walk rate. He’s pitched his way to a 3.2 fWAR on the season, which would be good for second on the team behind Garrett Crochet and almost a full two points ahead of the next-ranked Boston pitcher, Lucas Giolito, at 1.4. Adding him in as the second starter behind Crochet would give the Red Sox two lefties to kick off the rotation, but that’s fine. If you’re trotting out two dominant left-handed pitchers back-to-back, that’s not a bad thing (the Cubs do the same thing with Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd, and it's worked quite well for them). You’d have polar opposite pitchers toeing the rubber. A flamethrower followed by a location specialist. If we look at his detailed zone chart from Baseball Savant, we see that he controls the edge of the plate incredibly well.

Though Bubic isn’t lighting up the radar gun, he’s great at getting weak contact. He’s sitting on a 47.4% groundball percentage and his spray heat map from Baseball Savant shows that typically he gets hitters to put the ball in play on the third base side of the diamond, otherwise known as the area where reigning Gold Glove third baseman Alex Bregman plays. It spreads out a bit to Trevor Story at short and Marcelo Mayer at second from there, both of whom are sure-handed defenders. One thing that the Red Sox have prioritized since they went on their winning streak to close the first half of the season is defense. They’ve held up behind contact specialist Brayan Bello throughout the year, so adding another contact-heavy pitcher into the rotation shouldn’t shake things up too much. In fact, adding one of Bubic’s ilk will likely put them more at ease.

 

The downside to Bubic is that he’s going to be incredibly expensive. As I mentioned above, he’s only 27 and has a year and a half of control left on his contract. He’s currently in arbitration, where he’s making just $3 million for 2025. That number is sure to increase next year if he can keep this pace up. For whatever Bubic costs, adding him will be worth it. He would help solidify the starting rotation for the rest of this season and for 2026 as well. Plus, if the Sox were to swing a trade for Bubic, I’d expect them to lock him into a long-term contract like they did with Garrett Crochet. Much like Crochet, the price for Bubic will be high and giving up whatever the Royals get back in the deal pretty much forces Boston’s hand to keep Bubic here long-term.

I don’t think anyone anticipated Kris Bubic potentially being an option for the Red Sox even just a week ago. If Jeff Passan is talking about it though, there has to be some smoke coming from somewhere. Bubic won’t be cheap, but the Red Sox and Royals match up incredibly well for each other’s needs as the deadline approaches. It's rare that something so obvious appears on our radars so late into the rumor mill cycle, but it's hard to imagine a better target at the trade deadline now.

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[moonslav59]

The one more erb year factor gets my attention. He turns 28, soon, so I'd kick the tires and hope we can extend him for 2-3 more years.

The issue is the cost.

[notin]

Duran for Bubic.  Makes sense for both teams. Except Kansas City…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Duran for Bubic.  Makes sense for both teams. Except Kansas City…

Duran to PHI, Bubic to BOS, Abel & Romero to KCR.

[Alex Mayes]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Duran for Bubic.  Makes sense for both teams. Except Kansas City…

Duran to KC makes a ton of sense actually. They have one of the weakest outfields in baseball. Would it be a one for one deal? No way, but Duran would absolutely be someone KC is interested in acquiring. 

[Alex Mayes]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Duran to PHI, Bubic to BOS, Abel & Romero to KCR.

I don't think a three team trade is needed here. KC needs outfield help in the worst way and Duran is likely the odd man out in Boston. It's going to take Duran plus prospects to get it done but him to KC is right up there with him to Philly in terms of need. 

[harmony]

In May this Kris Bubic fan witnessed the left-hander's seven-inning, shutout gem in San Francisco:

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/royals-vs-giants/2025/05/19/777855/final/box

The Kansas City Royals drafted Bubic in the first round out of Stanford in 2018*.

* the same year my daughter graduated from Stanford

 

[notin]

2 hours ago, Alex Mayes said:

Duran to KC makes a ton of sense actually. They have one of the weakest outfields in baseball. Would it be a one for one deal? No way, but Duran would absolutely be someone KC is interested in acquiring. 

It is 3+ years of Duran for 1+ years if Bubic.  If it’s not 1 for 1, I don’t think the ancillary pieces figure to be too valuable…

[notin]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

In May this Kris Bubic fan witnessed the left-hander's seven-inning, shutout gem in San Francisco:

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/royals-vs-giants/2025/05/19/777855/final/box

The Kansas City Royals drafted Bubic in the first round out of Stanford in 2018*.

* the same year my daughter graduated from Stanford

 

Wasn’t Nico Hoerner in that draft as well?

[moonslav59]

I think 3 more years of Duran is worth more than 1 of Bubic. I think KC wins the trade, but if we extend Bubic, we do.

From BOS side, it looks like an even deal, since we need a real good pitcher and have a really good OF'er on the bench, every game, as it is, now. (As long as Yoshida DHs.)

[Alex Mayes]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think 3 more years of Duran is worth more than 1 of Bubic. I think KC wins the trade, but if we extend Bubic, we do.

From BOS side, it looks like an even deal, since we need a real good pitcher and have a really good OF'er on the bench, every game, as it is, now. (As long as Yoshida DHs.)

Exactly. I made that point in the original article. If a trade for Bubic is done, he almost has to be locked up long term like the team did with Crochet.

I disagree about three years of Duran being worth more than one and a half of Bubic, but that's a conversation for a different day. 

[harmony]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Wasn’t Nico Hoerner in that draft as well?

Indeed, Stanford's Nico Hoerner was the No. 24 pick and Kris Bubic the No., 40 pick.

This poster never saw Bubic pitch in college but in 2016 saw Hoerner and Tommy Edman in the Stanford middle infield:

https://gostanford.com/boxscore/1452

[sk7326]

Duran could be enough.  If it's Duran and a Mikey Romero level prospect, I'm not losing too much sleep.  

[TedYazPapiMookie]

7 hours ago, Alex Mayes said:

Exactly. I made that point in the original article. If a trade for Bubic is done, he almost has to be locked up long term like the team did with Crochet.

I disagree about three years of Duran being worth more than one and a half of Bubic, but that's a conversation for a different day. 

Still don't get why the platoon hitter who can't start close to 40% of the games and plays the weakest defensively skilled outfield position in the League is rated better than Duran in the eyes of some fans. 

A quick check of the metrics data that everyone is so enamored with shows the following:

Rafaela

RAA = 27, WAA = 3.0, Rrep = 12, RAR = 40, WAR = 4.2, oWAR = 2.4, dWAR = 2.1, oRAR = 24

Duran

RAA = 9, WAA = 1.1, Rrep = 15, RAR = 24, WAR = 2.7, oWAR = 2.0, dWAR = 0.1, oRAR = 20

Abreu 

RAA = 15, WAA = 1.6, Rrep = 11, RAR = 26, WAR = 2.5, oWAR = 1.6, dWAR = 0.8, oRAR = 16

Funny how this suggests Rafaela is the best, with both Duran and Abreu close BUT Abreu is playing in RF not LF and Duran after putting up a dWAR of 2.5 in 2024 playing CF it appears Duran has an edge on the platoon guy if he plays in CF where he belongs and that would make RF Rafaela's position where he should win PLATINUM GLOVES for years since the competition is so week in RF in the AL .  

That means LF should either be Anthony's or Abreu's.  I vote Anthony and trade Abreu NOT Duran.  

As far as Bubic goes, he's never been excellent as a whole but has had excellent moments.  He was rushed to the MLB then got an arm injury after some below average years when he should still have been in the minors.  Now he's back from surgery and he's performing inconsistently across time but the main reason for it is his schedule.  He cleans up on bad teams and struggles with good teams.   

Here is what concerns me.  Since his excellent starts up to 6/1/2025 he's not been good.

In six consecutive starts he's given up 5, 3, 2, 2, 3 and 3 Earned Runs in games where he's only averaged slightly over 5 innings per start.  He had good success against a weak schedule early in the season but his last six bad starts were against NYY, TEX, TB, LAD, ARi and PIT but his last game against MIA went well!!   He seems to slot in more as a SP4 and is that what we need right now?  He has no history of dominance because he was rushed to the majors and even in the minors he never dominated once he was at the AA level.  KC just needed him in the majors since they were so thin and it led to his surgery. 

I think there are better pitching candidates that can slot in at SP2 or SP3.  Edward Cabera is one. 

 

[Alex Mayes]

4 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Still don't get why the platoon hitter who can't start close to 40% of the games and plays the weakest defensively skilled outfield position in the League is rated better than Duran in the eyes of some fans. 

A quick check of the metrics data that everyone is so enamored with shows the following:

Rafaela

RAA = 27, WAA = 3.0, Rrep = 12, RAR = 40, WAR = 4.2, oWAR = 2.4, dWAR = 2.1, oRAR = 24

Duran

RAA = 9, WAA = 1.1, Rrep = 15, RAR = 24, WAR = 2.7, oWAR = 2.0, dWAR = 0.1, oRAR = 20

Abreu 

RAA = 15, WAA = 1.6, Rrep = 11, RAR = 26, WAR = 2.5, oWAR = 1.6, dWAR = 0.8, oRAR = 16

Funny how this suggests Rafaela is the best, with both Duran and Abreu close BUT Abreu is playing in RF not LF and Duran after putting up a dWAR of 2.5 in 2024 playing CF it appears Duran has an edge on the platoon guy if he plays in CF where he belongs and that would make RF Rafaela's position where he should win PLATINUM GLOVES for years since the competition is so week in RF in the AL .  

That means LF should either be Anthony's or Abreu's.  I vote Anthony and trade Abreu NOT Duran.  

As far as Bubic goes, he's never been excellent as a whole but has had excellent moments.  He was rushed to the MLB then got an arm injury after some below average years when he should still have been in the minors.  Now he's back from surgery and he's performing inconsistently across time but the main reason for it is his schedule.  He cleans up on bad teams and struggles with good teams.   

Here is what concerns me.  Since his excellent starts up to 6/1/2025 he's not been good.

In six consecutive starts he's given up 5, 3, 2, 2, 3 and 3 Earned Runs in games where he's only averaged slightly over 5 innings per start.  He had good success against a weak schedule early in the season but his last six bad starts were against NYY, TEX, TB, LAD, ARi and PIT but his last game against MIA went well!!   He seems to slot in more as a SP4 and is that what we need right now?  He has no history of dominance because he was rushed to the majors and even in the minors he never dominated once he was at the AA level.  KC just needed him in the majors since they were so thin and it led to his surgery. 

I think there are better pitching candidates that can slot in at SP2 or SP3.  Edward Cabera is one. 

 

I’ve talked about Cabrera extensively. This article is about Bubic though. Duran is obviously the odd man out in the outfield so that’s why he keeps getting brought up in trade proposals. It’s even more confirmed after it came out that the preferred outfield line up has Anthony in left, Rafaela in center, and Abreu in right. It’s entirely possible that none of the four get traded but if any of them do, Duran is likely a head of Abreu on most team’s list and would bring a bigger return. Like that SP 2 or 3 you mention. Abreu likely wouldn’t net that as the centerpiece of the deal. 

[notin]

13 hours ago, Alex Mayes said:

Exactly. I made that point in the original article. If a trade for Bubic is done, he almost has to be locked up long term like the team did with Crochet.

I disagree about three years of Duran being worth more than one and a half of Bubic, but that's a conversation for a different day. 

It’s a different day.

Of course 3+ years of Duran is worth more than 1+ years of Bubic, unless you base their value solely on their performances in 2025 and 2025 alone.

The only real question for KC is can they sell their pitching while simultaneously building their lineup and put together a winning team with that formula.  They’re not very good, and only made the postseason last year because going 12-1 against the worst team in MLB history masked a sub- .500 performance against the rest of the league…

[notin]

5 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Still don't get why the platoon hitter who can't start close to 40% of the games and plays the weakest defensively skilled outfield position in the League is rated better than Duran in the eyes of some fans. 

A quick check of the metrics data that everyone is so enamored with shows the following:

Rafaela

RAA = 27, WAA = 3.0, Rrep = 12, RAR = 40, WAR = 4.2, oWAR = 2.4, dWAR = 2.1, oRAR = 24

Duran

RAA = 9, WAA = 1.1, Rrep = 15, RAR = 24, WAR = 2.7, oWAR = 2.0, dWAR = 0.1, oRAR = 20

Abreu 

RAA = 15, WAA = 1.6, Rrep = 11, RAR = 26, WAR = 2.5, oWAR = 1.6, dWAR = 0.8, oRAR = 16

Funny how this suggests Rafaela is the best, with both Duran and Abreu close BUT Abreu is playing in RF not LF and Duran after putting up a dWAR of 2.5 in 2024 playing CF it appears Duran has an edge on the platoon guy if he plays in CF where he belongs and that would make RF Rafaela's position where he should win PLATINUM GLOVES for years since the competition is so week in RF in the AL .  

That means LF should either be Anthony's or Abreu's.  I vote Anthony and trade Abreu NOT Duran.  

As far as Bubic goes, he's never been excellent as a whole but has had excellent moments.  He was rushed to the MLB then got an arm injury after some below average years when he should still have been in the minors.  Now he's back from surgery and he's performing inconsistently across time but the main reason for it is his schedule.  He cleans up on bad teams and struggles with good teams.   

Here is what concerns me.  Since his excellent starts up to 6/1/2025 he's not been good.

In six consecutive starts he's given up 5, 3, 2, 2, 3 and 3 Earned Runs in games where he's only averaged slightly over 5 innings per start.  He had good success against a weak schedule early in the season but his last six bad starts were against NYY, TEX, TB, LAD, ARi and PIT but his last game against MIA went well!!   He seems to slot in more as a SP4 and is that what we need right now?  He has no history of dominance because he was rushed to the majors and even in the minors he never dominated once he was at the AA level.  KC just needed him in the majors since they were so thin and it led to his surgery. 

I think there are better pitching candidates that can slot in at SP2 or SP3.  Edward Cabera is one. 

 

1. LF is harder than RF now?

2. Lefties start 40% of opposing games? (Duran’s OPS vs LHP this year is far below Abreu’s.)

 

I do agree Bubic, whose career before 2025 included a 4.66 ERA and a total of 2.5 bWAR in 300 IP, might be overvalued by some…

[Alex Mayes]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s a different day.

Of course 3+ years of Duran is worth more than 1+ years of Bubic, unless you base their value solely on their performances in 2025 and 2025 alone.

The only real question for KC is can they sell their pitching while simultaneously building their lineup and put together a winning team with that formula.  They’re not very good, and only made the postseason last year because going 12-1 against the worst team in MLB history masked a sub- .500 performance against the rest of the league…

Eh. Duran has peaked pretty clearly and the time to sell high has passed. That’s why I advocated for trading him during the offseason, we all should have seen this coming. The extension alone tells us what the front office thinks of Duran, they don’t value him like most fans do. He’s a passable left fielder at best that hits lefties worse than Abreu. His value should be higher than Bubic, sure, and likely is to the fan base. It seems the front office disagrees. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

1. LF is harder than RF now?

2. Lefties start 40% of opposing games? (Duran’s OPS vs LHP this year is far below Abreu’s.)

 

I do agree Bubic, whose career before 2025 included a 4.66 ERA and a total of 2.5 bWAR in 300 IP, might be overvalued by some…

He started 68% of last seasons games. That's not even including his two 10 day IL stints. The number is most likely lower than 30%. 

This season he has started 69% of the games. That's not including his lone 10 day IL stint. 

[Duran Is The Man]

45 minutes ago, notin said:

1. LF is harder than RF now?

2. Lefties start 40% of opposing games? (Duran’s OPS vs LHP this year is far below Abreu’s.)

 

I do agree Bubic, whose career before 2025 included a 4.66 ERA and a total of 2.5 bWAR in 300 IP, might be overvalued by some…

yes, VERY overvalued. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Alex Mayes said:

Eh. Duran has peaked pretty clearly and the time to sell high has passed. That’s why I advocated for trading him during the offseason, we all should have seen this coming. The extension alone tells us what the front office thinks of Duran, they don’t value him like most fans do. He’s a passable left fielder at best that hits lefties worse than Abreu. His value should be higher than Bubic, sure, and likely is to the fan base. It seems the front office disagrees. 

How does the KC front office feel about Bubic? Let’s be fair about evaluation criteria.

Duran clearly peaked last year and you were not alone in advocating a sell high.  But Bubic appears likely headed the same way.  If this is a time to sell Bubic high, 3+ years of an All Star outfielder is a pretty good get.  

And as for Duran’s perception, most of the media feels he will be among the most valuable players traded this off-season - sobering no one has said about Bubic, although that might be related to how many think he could be traded.

[Alex Mayes]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

How does the KC front office feel about Bubic? Let’s be fair about evaluation criteria.

Duran clearly peaked last year and you were not alone in advocating a sell high.  But Bubic appears likely headed the same way.  If this is a time to sell Bubic high, 3+ years of an All Star outfielder is a pretty good get.  

And as for Duran’s perception, most of the media feels he will be among the most valuable players traded this off-season - sobering no one has said about Bubic, although that might be related to how many think he could be traded.

Isn't it more indicative of a weaker position player trade market that Duran is seen as one of the most valuable players to be traded? His value has dropped considerably and he's still seen as a top of the market get. Obviously teams looking for outfield help are going to chase him because there's not a better option available on the market at the moment. 

[curbsidecorgi67]

I don't think this trade makes sense for the Red Sox. 

It would be a little silly for a team that is 5 games over .500 to send major prospects for a pitcher with 22 starts in 3 seasons, rather than simply waiting a few months to sign one of the 5-7 more reliable options available in free agency. 

 

[notin]

22 minutes ago, Alex Mayes said:

Isn't it more indicative of a weaker position player trade market that Duran is seen as one of the most valuable players to be traded? His value has dropped considerably and he's still seen as a top of the market get. Obviously teams looking for outfield help are going to chase him because there's not a better option available on the market at the moment. 

Ok, but that’s a huge factor.

Trade value is a meaningless concept; it’s not like a price tag in a store.  Websites like BTV calculate it based on WAR and salary, both current and projected.  But that’s a lot of guesswork and future voodoo involved that may or may not come true.

While most teases probably use  similar systems, at the end of the day, only two real world factors establish the value. 1) How much Team A wants to trade the player and 2)how badly Team B wants to acquire him.  If Team A wants to dump him for salary reasons or attitude problems or he whines when asked to play first base, then Team B can probably get him for less.  But if Team B wants to acquire a player more than Team A wants to deal him (especially if they need to outbid Team C), then the price goes up.

There has been far more buzz about Duran than Bubic.  But Bubic is a pitcher, which is always in high demand.  But I don’t think that alone puts him so far ahead of Duran and his extra years

[drewski6]

4 hours ago, Alex Mayes said:

I’ve talked about Cabrera extensively. This article is about Bubic though. Duran is obviously the odd man out in the outfield so that’s why he keeps getting brought up in trade proposals. It’s even more confirmed after it came out that the preferred outfield line up has Anthony in left, Rafaela in center, and Abreu in right. It’s entirely possible that none of the four get traded but if any of them do, Duran is likely a head of Abreu on most team’s list and would bring a bigger return. Like that SP 2 or 3 you mention. Abreu likely wouldn’t net that as the centerpiece of the deal. 

Any time you are talking about trading the face and fire of the franchise, the return package is secondary.  You are failing pretty badly to make a conversation about Bubic. Duran is NOT the obvious odd man out.  You accepting that as fact overshadows everything you are trying to say about (dont even care about his name)

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, Alex Mayes said:

Eh. Duran has peaked pretty clearly and the time to sell high has passed. That’s why I advocated for trading him during the offseason, we all should have seen this coming. The extension alone tells us what the front office thinks of Duran, they don’t value him like most fans do. He’s a passable left fielder at best that hits lefties worse than Abreu. His value should be higher than Bubic, sure, and likely is to the fan base. It seems the front office disagrees. 

This is seen through a slant.  25% chance of Duran getting traded (per your article) is getting ignored.  Comments from front office, they dont feel the need to move an OF'er getting overlooked.

25% is not the foregone conclusion that you present.  Especially if we are buying.  Trade our fire for what 6 starts? Thats a sell move. This isnt an obvious great deal for both sides.  

Duran has an SOPS+ of 165 for July.  Hes on fire right now.  He was on fire throughout the second half of last year.

[sk7326]

1 hour ago, notin said:

How does the KC front office feel about Bubic? Let’s be fair about evaluation criteria.

Duran clearly peaked last year and you were not alone in advocating a sell high.  But Bubic appears likely headed the same way.  If this is a time to sell Bubic high, 3+ years of an All Star outfielder is a pretty good get.  

And as for Duran’s perception, most of the media feels he will be among the most valuable players traded this off-season - sobering no one has said about Bubic, although that might be related to how many think he could be traded.

The thing with Duran is that while he has had a rough season, his batted ball data is well in line with last season.  I do think teams are going to look at the Statcast numbers and see a guy who just needs some balls to find gaps.  Now he is PROBABLY not the defensive player the numbers showed last season - but he is at least average out there.  With 3 year of control that is a good player.

For Bubic - who appears to be more a really good #2/#3 starter than an ace (which might be why KC is hesitant to give a big extension as a priority) - I agree it seems fair.  If the Royals want to hold out for another mid-lower level prospect that's at least worth a discussion.

[mvp 78]

51 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Any time you are talking about trading the face and fire of the franchise, the return package is secondary.  You are failing pretty badly to make a conversation about Bubic. Duran is NOT the obvious odd man out.  You accepting that as fact overshadows everything you are trying to say about (dont even care about his name)

The face is now Roman or Crochet IMO.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

On 7/23/2025 at 11:31 AM, mvp 78 said:

The face is now Roman or Crochet IMO.

Bregman is the best player.  They might want to extend him and lose the opt outs. 

The face of the franchise is still Mookie to me.  He was the generational player that got away (throw in garbage by ownership).