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On July 21, ESPN’s Jeff Passan updated his top 50 trade deadline candidates. Notably, the Red Sox only have one name on this list this time around, Jarren Duran at number three with a trade percentage of 25%. More interestingly, though, is the amount of names Passan connected to the Red Sox. Instead of writing them all out, I’ll include Gordo’s tweet listing them:
There are some fascinating names on that list, including a few that we’ve talked about here on Talk Sox, but the name that should stand out to everyone is Kris Bubic. To date, Bubic’s name hasn’t popped up on many radars, as he’s just 27 and still has a year and a half of team control left. The general thought was that Kansas City wouldn’t make him available if they were still in contention for a playoff spot, but those hopes seem to be fading. Cole Ragans is nursing a shoulder injury and the belief is that Seth Lugo is likely on his way out of the door as the deadline draws near. While Lugo would be a huge get for the Sox, Bubic is arguably the best No. 2 starter potentially available on the trade market.
Bubic isn’t going to blow you away by any means. He has a five-pitch mix that tops out at 92.2 mph on his four-seam fastball and dips down to 83 mph on his sweeper. His changeup and slider come in at almost identical speeds, 85.5 mph for the changeup and 85.4 mph for the slider, while he occasionally throws a sinker that averages 91.7 mph. It's the way he mixes in those offerings that makes him dominant, though. He’s currently working with a 2.38 ERA over 113.2 innings pitched. In those innings, he’s notched 115 strikeouts with a 2.76 FIP, a 24.6% strikeout percentage and a 7.6% walk rate. He’s pitched his way to a 3.2 fWAR on the season, which would be good for second on the team behind Garrett Crochet and almost a full two points ahead of the next-ranked Boston pitcher, Lucas Giolito, at 1.4. Adding him in as the second starter behind Crochet would give the Red Sox two lefties to kick off the rotation, but that’s fine. If you’re trotting out two dominant left-handed pitchers back-to-back, that’s not a bad thing (the Cubs do the same thing with Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd, and it's worked quite well for them). You’d have polar opposite pitchers toeing the rubber. A flamethrower followed by a location specialist. If we look at his detailed zone chart from Baseball Savant, we see that he controls the edge of the plate incredibly well. 
Though Bubic isn’t lighting up the radar gun, he’s great at getting weak contact. He’s sitting on a 47.4% groundball percentage and his spray heat map from Baseball Savant shows that typically he gets hitters to put the ball in play on the third base side of the diamond, otherwise known as the area where reigning Gold Glove third baseman Alex Bregman plays. It spreads out a bit to Trevor Story at short and Marcelo Mayer at second from there, both of whom are sure-handed defenders. One thing that the Red Sox have prioritized since they went on their winning streak to close the first half of the season is defense. They’ve held up behind contact specialist Brayan Bello throughout the year, so adding another contact-heavy pitcher into the rotation shouldn’t shake things up too much. In fact, adding one of Bubic’s ilk will likely put them more at ease.
The downside to Bubic is that he’s going to be incredibly expensive. As I mentioned above, he’s only 27 and has a year and a half of control left on his contract. He’s currently in arbitration, where he’s making just $3 million for 2025. That number is sure to increase next year if he can keep this pace up. For whatever Bubic costs, adding him will be worth it. He would help solidify the starting rotation for the rest of this season and for 2026 as well. Plus, if the Sox were to swing a trade for Bubic, I’d expect them to lock him into a long-term contract like they did with Garrett Crochet. Much like Crochet, the price for Bubic will be high and giving up whatever the Royals get back in the deal pretty much forces Boston’s hand to keep Bubic here long-term.
I don’t think anyone anticipated Kris Bubic potentially being an option for the Red Sox even just a week ago. If Jeff Passan is talking about it though, there has to be some smoke coming from somewhere. Bubic won’t be cheap, but the Red Sox and Royals match up incredibly well for each other’s needs as the deadline approaches. It's rare that something so obvious appears on our radars so late into the rumor mill cycle, but it's hard to imagine a better target at the trade deadline now.
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