Rays (Pepiot) vs Red Sox (Bello): 7/13/25, 1:35pm

[Soxlover]

4 games behind the second best record in the AL!

[Maxbialystock]

21 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

True. But my post was more related to Bregs reinjuring his quad.

 

21 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

True. But my post was more related to Bregs reinjuring his quad.

He is or he isn't recovered.  The docs say he is.  While it's great to have Bregman back, this winning streak did not need him.  

[FredLynn]

Recorded the game as real life intervened. Ten wins in  row and Rafaela still hasn't returned to the form everyone expected. Don't lie. No one here thought he would suddenly turn into an offensive force. I still don't trust him but he is swinging less at balls outside the zone and for now isn't missing meatballs.

Just wondering how much the Devers distraction was affecting the team because as soon as they got rid of him the team took off. My guess is that it was a factor.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Recorded the game as real life intervened. Ten wins in  row and Rafaela still hasn't returned to the form everyone expected. Don't lie. No one here thought he would suddenly turn into an offensive force. I still don't trust him but he is swinging less at balls outside the zone and for now isn't missing meatballs.

Just wondering how much the Devers distraction was affecting the team because as soon as they got rid of him the team took off. My guess is that it was a factor.

I think some of of felt he might come close to .800 by age 26 or 27.

He's at .797, now.

Let's see where he finished.

The kids looks like a whole different guy, and it's not the first time a young player figured things out while in the bigs.

There is also a chance, he'll hit a skid and need to adjust, agin.

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I think some of of felt he might come close to .800 by age 26 or 27.

He's at .797, now.

Let's see where he finished.

The kids looks like a whole different guy, and it's not the first time a young player figured things out while in the bigs.

As I recall you wrote a post that essentially said that he would never be much of an offensive force because he had such poor recognition of the strike zone. 

I would be very happy to be wrong about him. Add a productive Rafaela to the other kids (and I think Campbell will figure it out) and we have the basis  for a competitive team for a long time

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

As I recall you wrote a post that essentially said that he would never be much of an offensive force because he had such poor recognition of the strike zone. 

I would be very happy to be wrong about him. Add a productive Rafaela to the other kids (and I think Campbell will figure it out) and we have the basis  for a competitive team for a long time

I've said a lot of things, but I honestly don't remember giving up on him, like that. If I did, I was way wrong.

I liked the extension, when it happened. I love his D and always have. 

I've never been a guy to hate high K guys as long as they can get on base and or show power. Rafaela has never shown the former, and has not shown real consistent power.

I have commented on the fact that I was sure the coaches in the Sox system must have spent hours and hours working with him on his approach and pitch selection, and that it hasn't seemed to help, even a little, but I'm not sure I ever said he could never overcome it, and I've often thought some hitters can still hit well enough swinging and hitting balls most other hitters miss (out of the zone.)

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Recorded the game as real life intervened. Ten wins in  row and Rafaela still hasn't returned to the form everyone expected. Don't lie. No one here thought he would suddenly turn into an offensive force. I still don't trust him but he is swinging less at balls outside the zone and for now isn't missing meatballs.

Just wondering how much the Devers distraction was affecting the team because as soon as they got rid of him the team took off. My guess is that it was a factor.

I'm sure Rafaela wakes up in the middle of the night asking himself, "when oh when will I win FredLynn's trust?"   

So allow me to go to the opposite extreme.  He can hit, hit with power, field, catch, and run the bases and kind of reminds me of Willie Mays who was also 5'10" and had the same five tools.  Willie was a ton better of course, especially in his first 13 seasons after returning from service in the US Army.  On the other hand, Willie couldn't play the infield the way Ceddanne can.  

Ceddanne is in his 2d full season, so I find it hard to buy that this current run is blind stupid luck.  We'll see.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think some of of felt he might come close to .800 by age 26 or 27.

He's at .797, now.

Let's see where he finished.

The kids looks like a whole different guy, and it's not the first time a young player figured things out while in the bigs.

There is also a chance, he'll hit a skid and need to adjust, agin.

I like your version more than mine.  

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, vegasbob said:

So glad Breslow traded the correct Raffy , so we could keep the one that wins ballgames with  his bat and glove/arm.

9 outs to end the run to the A-S break with blazing saddles

and does what is asked to help the team, even it means changing positions.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I'm sure Rafaela wakes up in the middle of the night asking himself, "when oh when will I win FredLynn's trust?"   

So allow me to go to the opposite extreme.  He can hit, hit with power, field, catch, and run the bases and kind of reminds me of Willie Mays who was also 5'10" and had the same five tools.  Willie was a ton better of course, especially in his first 13 seasons after returning from service in the US Army.  On the other hand, Willie couldn't play the infield the way Ceddanne can.  

Ceddanne is in his 2d full season, so I find it hard to buy that this current run is blind stupid luck.  We'll see.  

I'm ok with the comp, since modern athletes are usually bigger/stronger/faster. But let me tell you, my son who is 5'5 had his picture taken next to Rafaela last winter, and Ceddanne was only a few inches taller (never believe team press guides because they always exaggerate height; Dick Fitts isn't 6-3, either).

As for Mays, I read a biography where his manager, Leo Durocher, said he was sure Willie could have been an All-Star shortstop if he wanted. Apparently, he took infield before every game and was just as good on the dirt as he was on the grass. 

The Giants move to San Francisco really robbed Mays of his righty pull power, because the wind was always blowing in from left field at Candlestick Park. It's a testament to Willie's talents that he altered his swing to the opposite field in his prime and still came close to the all-time home run record.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

42 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

As I recall you wrote a post that essentially said that he would never be much of an offensive force because he had such poor recognition of the strike zone. 

I would be very happy to be wrong about him. Add a productive Rafaela to the other kids (and I think Campbell will figure it out) and we have the basis  for a competitive team for a long time

You don't seem the type who would be very happy to be wrong. I'm thinking you root against Rafaela every time he's at bat.

[FredLynn]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've said a lot of things, but I honestly don't remember giving up on him, like that. If I did, I was way wrong.

I liked the extension, when it happened. I love his D and always have. 

I've never been a guy to hate high K guys as long as they can get on base and or show power. Rafaela has never shown the former, and has not shown real consistent power.

I have commented on the fact that I was sure the coaches in the Sox system must have spent hours and hours working with him on his approach and pitch selection, and that it hasn't seemed to help, even a little, but I'm not sure I ever said he could never overcome it, and I've often thought some hitters can still hit well enough swinging and hitting balls most other hitters miss (out of the zone.)

As I recall you wrote something like “if I’d be happy if he hit an OPS of .700 because of what he brings to our defense “. Or something like that. But whatever….im happier with what he’s doing now-if he can keep it up. I don’t think he’s one of those rare guys who can consistently hit balls outside the zone with authority. He’s laying off most of those now. Let’s see where he is in September, as you wrote.

[FredLynn]

50 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I'm sure Rafaela wakes up in the middle of the night asking himself, "when oh when will I win FredLynn's trust?"   

So allow me to go to the opposite extreme.  He can hit, hit with power, field, catch, and run the bases and kind of reminds me of Willie Mays who was also 5'10" and had the same five tools.  Willie was a ton better of course, especially in his first 13 seasons after returning from service in the US Army.  On the other hand, Willie couldn't play the infield the way Ceddanne can.  

Ceddanne is in his 2d full season, so I find it hard to buy that this current run is blind stupid luck.  We'll see.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yup

We’ll see. Let’s hope that he doesn’t fall back into old bad habits when all is said and done. 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

As I recall you wrote something like “if I’d be happy if he hit an OPS of .700 because of what he brings to our defense “. Or something like that. But whatever….im happier with what he’s doing now-if he can keep it up. I don’t think he’s one of those rare guys who can consistently hit balls outside the zone with authority. He’s laying off most of those now. Let’s see where he is in September, as you wrote.

I am certain I said this. I don't think this means I give up on him never hitting near or even over .800 for a season.

Hell, JBJ did it over 1.5 seasons.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Yup

We’ll see. Let’s hope that he doesn’t fall back into old bad habits when all is said and done. 

I think he will always K a lot, and likely not ever have a BB% even in the top 66%.

I think he can hit 20-25 HRs, steal 20-25 bases and maybe hit around .750 to .775 over much of his career. Maybe he blows this away. Maybe his career OPS will never be over .710 or .725. (Right now it's at .706, before tonight.)

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think he will always K a lot, and likely not ever have a BB% even in the top 66%.

I think he can hit 20-25 HRs, steal 20-25 bases and maybe hit around .750 to .775 over much of his career. Maybe he blows this away. Maybe his career OPS will never be over .710 or .725. (Right now it's at .706, before tonight.)

I could accept an OPS in the .775 range because of his other talents.

Whats the lowest acceptable OPS you would consider without thinking he’s not contributing enough?

[tawest]

15 hours ago, Nick said:

It's too bad they never spend any money.

They don't.......... but they have won with a lot less than most over the past decade. Cash does a great job there and they seem to get the most out of their unheralded lineup every year. 

Nice to get a sweep of a team that's been a pain in the Sox's backside over the years.

[Soxlover]

7 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I could accept an OPS in the .775 range because of his other talents.

Whats the lowest acceptable OPS you would consider without thinking he’s not contributing enough?

The league OPS is about .720, so maybe .680 to .690. .660 is about as low as I go, but hes so streaky I might be waiting for one like I did w JBJ.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I've said it before about OPS, but when a guy is hot with the bat then I could care less if he walks, because way more good things are produced by the "S" than the "O" --

-- especially with an offense that struggles with just making contact, like in much of the first half.

The average Slugging Percentage in the AL is .403, and the Red Sox now have a team S% of .433, second to the New York Judges; the Sox have 13 batters above average, NY has 9.

Top four on the current roster: Romy .582, Bregman .546, Abreu .496, Ceddanne .483.

[Soxlover]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I've said it before about OPS, but when a guy is hot with the bat then I could care less if he walks, because way more good things are produced by the "S" than the "O" --

-- especially with an offense that struggles with just making contact, like in much of the first half.

The average Slugging Percentage in the AL is .403, and the Red Sox now have a team S% of .433, second to the New York Judges; the Sox have 13 batters above average, NY has 9.

Top four on the current roster: Romy .582, Bregman .546, Abreu .496, Ceddanne .483.

Good points. Ceddanne has been very clutch,too!

[FredLynn]

9 hours ago, Soxlover said:

The league OPS is about .720, so maybe .680 to .690. .660 is about as low as I go, but hes so streaky I might be waiting for one like I did w JBJ.

Not good enough for my liking. Not unless he’s the only one who is useless with a bat in his hands. You can’t win with a team batting.660 OPS.

And I believe the average MLB OPS is a bit higher than .720-closer to .750.

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Not good enough for my liking. Not unless he’s the only one who is useless with a bat in his hands. You can’t win with a team batting.660 OPS.

And I believe the average MLB OPS is a bit higher than .720-closer to .750.

2025 average MLB OPS stands at .715.

Pitching is dominating.

[FredLynn]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

2025 average MLB OPS stands at .715.

Pitching is dominating.

Thanks

Then in that case I could handle Rafaela batting at the ML average as long as the rest of the team’s starters bat above average. You don’t win rings with an average offensive team.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Thanks

Then in that case I could handle Rafaela batting at the ML average as long as the rest of the team’s starters bat above average. You don’t win rings with an average offensive team.

Actually, a team wins with pitching and defense.

[FredLynn]

53 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Actually, a team wins with pitching and defense.

You need pitching and defense-but you also need to be able to score runs. A team can afford a black hole or two but probably not many more if they want to compete for a ring.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Not good enough for my liking. Not unless he’s the only one who is useless with a bat in his hands. You can’t win with a team batting.660 OPS.

And I believe the average MLB OPS is a bit higher than .720-closer to .750.

The 2025 MLB OPS is .715, now. (CF is .695.)

You may think, well that includes subs, but out of the top 30 CF'ers in MLB by PAs (150+) the #15 guy is at .683.

Out of the top 270 batters at all positions by PAs (200+) the number 135 batter is at .723.

[FredLynn]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The 2025 MLB OPS is .715, now. (CF is .695.)

You may think, well that includes subs, but out of the top 30 CF'ers in MLB by PAs (150+) the #15 guy is at .683.

Out of the top 270 batters at all positions by PAs (200+) the number 135 batter is at .723.

Here’s what I think: if you want to compete for a ring you don’t compare your players to the average player at the position: you compare him to the best. If you have a group of average players you won’t be competitive for a ring. That doesn’t mean every player on your team has to be above average. If Rafaela flops and is the only black hole that’s fine

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Here’s what I think: if you want to compete for a ring you don’t compare your players to the average player at the position: you compare him to the best. If you have a group of average players you won’t be competitive for a ring. That doesn’t mean every player on your team has to be above average. If Rafaela flops and is the only black hole that’s fine

Of course, I'd want every player to be significant better than average in every category of measurement.

I'll take a positionally average SS, CF and sub avg Catcher, as a hitter, if they are clear plusses on D. (All ours are: Narvaez, Story & Rafaela.)

If Rafaela bats average, he's a big net plus, when you factor D and baserunning.

Can a team with with 9 average batters that are GG on D and decent runners? Maybe- maybe not. The pitching would tip the balance.

I don't need all my 9 to be significant plusses on D and O.