Cora: "[Ceddanne] Rafaela [Will] Make An Occasional Start At Second Base

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Campbell, Garcia, Masa and Ref are not good OF depth for 2025.  Campbell and Garcia are unproven as MLB players.  And Masa and Ref are bad defensive players. 

Masa and Ref are okay in LF and not net (O+D)  negatives as a platoon.

Buehler is proven to suck. Fitts is proven to be unproven, too. Are we sure Gio is going to stay like this?

We can roll the dice on Sandoval, Houck and Fitts or roll the dice that after we trade an OF'er, another does not get hurt.

Again, I'm not for trading any OF'er for even the best rental SP'er. I want to improve our rotation for 2025 and beyond, which would also add depth to the rotation.

We have spent years building up our everyday player roster and farm. We lack depth at Catcher and corner IF, unless you count on Casas & Toro. Gonzales is too far away. Jordan is too unknown. We now look okay at MI, even if KC never plays another MLB game at 2B, again. We look extra strong at OF AND extra deep.

for years, we've been saying, "keep drafting better odds everyday players, so we can trade some, when we need pitching." I still feel this way.

[Hitch]

On 7/14/2025 at 8:48 PM, Kimmi said:

I prefer that Rafaela stay in centerfield.  That said, I really don't want to see any of our outfielders traded, namely Duran or Abreu.  If giving Rafaela some playing time at 2B allows Cora to manage the logjam more efficiently, then I'm all for it.  Hopefully, I won't have to take back that statement in the coming weeks.

I think you're about o have your heart broken, Kimmi. 

I don't want to see Duran going but I think it's inevitable. 

We badly need a 2nd starter. Crochet is nails. Gio and Bello appear to be locked in and hopefully that's who we have or near enough towards the end of the season, but it's far from a lock. After that, it's a lot of questions and huge ERA's. We need that extra pitcher and we have a lot of outfielders. Padres seem intent on getting Duran, so if we involved a 3rd team, I think it likely happens. 

 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

I think you're about o have your heart broken, Kimmi. 

I don't want to see Duran going but I think it's inevitable. 

We badly need a 2nd starter. Crochet is nails. Gio and Bello appear to be locked in and hopefully that's who we have or near enough towards the end of the season, but it's far from a lock. After that, it's a lot of questions and huge ERA's. We need that extra pitcher and we have a lot of outfielders. Padres seem intent on getting Duran, so if we involved a 3rd team, I think it likely happens. 

 

I agree. The only way Abreu goes over Duran is if a team insists on him, and the prize is worth it.

This in no way means I dislike Duran or undervalue him. I really hate to trade him, but he's more valuable to a team that does not have an Anthony, Abreu and Rafaela (plus Ref/Masa, KC & Garcia.)

I think Duran goes to SD or Philly and a third team sends us a solid #2 who is not a rental. We kick in a few non top 10-12 prospects. As great as Duran is, we may not even see a step down to Anthony, especially looking beyond 2025. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

On 7/14/2025 at 3:15 PM, dgalehouse said:

Is Rafaela riding a hot streak or is he blossoming into a legitimate star? That is what the team needs to find out. Meanwhile, there is no urgency to trade an outfielder. Injuries and slumps will take care of playing time concerns. 

Rafaela came up in 2023 and was outstanding and never should have been demoted by Cora to the 9th spot in the order.   Much like Duran when he got demoted by Cora it's taken Rafaela a year to recover from his demotion.  I think this is his breakout year on offense and he's already one of the top defenders in the outfield in baseball.  The next player that will need to recover from Cora's demotion is Campbell.  I believe all three will end up being all-stars throughout their careers.  

We have seen pre-all-star game success in several of the recent years, and all ended with dismal Augusts and Septembers so we need to see if the matching cold streak will follow the hot streak they just finished like so many times before.

[moonslav59]

Here are some interesting numbers:
High Leverage Leaders:

1.042 Resnyder

.912 Rafaela

.860 Narvaez

(Devers .852)

.830 Romy

.780 Toro

.777 Abreu

.733 Anthony

.689 Mayer

.670 Bregman, .650 Story, .606 KC, .601 Duran

[moonslav59]

How have pitchers done with Wong vs Narvaez by OPS Against?

Bello: .618 (263 PAs w Wong)/.790 w Narvaez (125)

Crochet: .597 (126 PAs w Wong)/ .564 w Narvaez (387)

Whitlock: 598(65)/.595 w Narvaez (121)

Dobbins: .729 (59)/.709 w Narvaez (197)

Weissert: .580 (52)/.762 w Narv (119)

Chapman .433 (42)/.392 w Narv (97)

Bernardino .762 (41)/.464 w Narv (102)

Bello & Weissert do better with Wong, but Chapman and Bernardino do better with Narvaez. 

The others are close of one pitcher has fewer than 40 PA as a sample size. Kinda even, right?

 

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Rafaela came up in 2023 and was outstanding and never should have been demoted by Cora to the 9th spot in the order.   Much like Duran when he got demoted by Cora it's taken Rafaela a year to recover from his demotion. 

You gotta be the leadoff hitter, first, to later be demoted.

Duran led off 2 games in 2021, and they weren't to start his MLB career.  He hit .215 year one and .221 year two, when he did lead off mostly. He never earned the one slot in those two years. (.324 career OBP/.329 when 1st in order.)

Rafaela has batted 1st in 18 or 170 MLB games, almost all year one, when he his .241 (.243 in 1 slot.) Rafaela did not earn the 1 slot, either, until maybe now. Career .288 OBP/ .274 in 1 slot.

Few batters start off as leadoff hitters, unless they are late season call-ups.

Nobody had to recover from phantom demotions from the 1 slot.

[drewski6]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Throwing "IT  ALL" away? LOL.

BTW, you do know that adding a Joe Ryan type would add depth to the rotation, as a Fitts or Crawford would move down a notch into the 6th or 7th rotation slot.

We have depth 3-4 deep at some slots, and if some don't pan out or some vets get hurt, we'll still 1-2 deep.

It's nice to have 2-3 deep, but when you have a guy like Buehler pitching every 5 days, and a back to earth Toro playing a bunch, we could use some more quality, at the expense of a fraction of the quantity or depth.

OF:

Duran, Rafaela, Abreu

Campbell, Garcia, Anthony

Yoshida & Refsnyder (emergency)

That's 8 guys with one DH'ing every game. If you count Arias as depth, so is Garcia, if not more MLB ready so.

I love depth. I love a legit 4/5 SP'er more.

We could also use a solid pen arm. Talk about lack of depth. We have depth there, but most are sub mediocre or borderline.

The crux of my disagreement with you is you are thinking about 162 game season, and I am thinking about go-forward only. That phrases it in a way that makes it appear where I am calling you "wrong" and that is not my intent. So better phrasing probably exists.

But I worry more about my 6th and 7th starter during the reg season, but when the clock approaches late season, its time to start thinking about playoffs.  In the playoffs, three man rotation.  So if you get Ryan , Bello becomes a BP workhorse.  And Id pitch him with confidence in a tied game in the seventh inning if my rotation is Crochet, Ryan, Giolitto.

In the playoffs , your #5 OF is way more important than your #5 pitcher.  Theres subbing all over the place. Your #5 pitcher doesnt usually make your playoff roster.

Im not sure I want Mayer as a full time starter in the playoffs.  Cedanne may be playing some infield.  Campbell and Garcia? You are comfortable with trotting them out there in the playoffs? You sure that youre gonna want Toro out there at 1b in the playoffs? You can maybe use some OF overflow to cover that too (as well as DH).

There are ways to add to the pen and the rotation while keeping your OF/DH depth.  Abreu and Duran both have multiple years of control beyond this year.  

The deeper we get into the season, the less your pitching depth matters. And we are already deep and only getting deeper as the clock only moves forward.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The deeper we get into the season, the less your pitching depth matters. And we are already deep and only getting deeper as the clock only moves forward.

Tell that to the Dodgers who run out of starting pitchers every playoffs. 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Tell that to the Dodgers who run out of starting pitchers every playoffs. 

Didnt seem to stop em last year.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Didnt seem to stop em last year.

True, but it does show how severe the attrition rate is.  They won it with 2 guys who had missed a lot of the season and one deadline acquisition.  

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

True, but it does show how severe the attrition rate is.  They won it with 2 guys who had missed a lot of the season and one deadline acquisition.  

Fair, Im not against some major pitching acquisitions.  Im just against moving Duran OR Abreu to do it, when I want both on my postseason roster and there are guys who I dont think will be on our postseason roster who can be moved.

This is quickly looking like a team worth keeping together.

[Maxbialystock]

19 hours ago, Hitch said:

I think you're about o have your heart broken, Kimmi. 

I don't want to see Duran going but I think it's inevitable. 

We badly need a 2nd starter. Crochet is nails. Gio and Bello appear to be locked in and hopefully that's who we have or near enough towards the end of the season, but it's far from a lock. After that, it's a lot of questions and huge ERA's. We need that extra pitcher and we have a lot of outfielders. Padres seem intent on getting Duran, so if we involved a 3rd team, I think it likely happens. 

 

Just exactly what do you mean by "2nd starter?"  

I ask because to me the first three starter positions are filled:  Crochet ERA 2.23, Bello 3.14, and Giolito 3.36.  When was the last time the Sox had three starters with those ERA's?  Crochet also has 12 quality starts out of 20 overall, Bello has 9 out of 15, and Giolito has 9 out of 13.  You think those guys are chopped liver?  

I am by no means against getting another starter and would not hesitate to trade Duran for the right deal.  

 

 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Just exactly what do you mean by "2nd starter?"  

I ask because to me the first three starter positions are filled:  Crochet ERA 2.23, Bello 3.14, and Giolito 3.36.  When was the last time the Sox had three starters with those ERA's?  Crochet also has 12 quality starts out of 20 overall, Bello has 9 out of 15, and Giolito has 9 out of 13.  You think those guys are chopped liver?  

I am by no means against getting another starter and would not hesitate to trade Duran for the right deal.  

 

 

Give up Duran ( three years control) for a guy who does not project to be in your playoff rotation?

[Maxbialystock]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Fair, Im not against some major pitching acquisitions.  Im just against moving Duran OR Abreu to do it, when I want both on my postseason roster and there are guys who I dont think will be on our postseason roster who can be moved.

This is quickly looking like a team worth keeping together.

I like that last line.  I also think the Sox first three starters--Crochet, Bello, and Giolito--are the best first three the Sox have had since 2018.  

Nevertheless, the outfield is looking a little crowded right now with Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, and Anthony.  

 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The crux of my disagreement with you is you are thinking about 162 game season, and I am thinking about go-forward only. That phrases it in a way that makes it appear where I am calling you "wrong" and that is not my intent. So better phrasing probably exists.

But I worry more about my 6th and 7th starter during the reg season, but when the clock approaches late season, its time to start thinking about playoffs.  In the playoffs, three man rotation.  So if you get Ryan , Bello becomes a BP workhorse.  And Id pitch him with confidence in a tied game in the seventh inning if my rotation is Crochet, Ryan, Giolitto.

In the playoffs , your #5 OF is way more important than your #5 pitcher.  Theres subbing all over the place. Your #5 pitcher doesnt usually make your playoff roster.

Im not sure I want Mayer as a full time starter in the playoffs.  Cedanne may be playing some infield.  Campbell and Garcia? You are comfortable with trotting them out there in the playoffs? You sure that youre gonna want Toro out there at 1b in the playoffs? You can maybe use some OF overflow to cover that too (as well as DH).

There are ways to add to the pen and the rotation while keeping your OF/DH depth.  Abreu and Duran both have multiple years of control beyond this year.  

The deeper we get into the season, the less your pitching depth matters. And we are already deep and only getting deeper as the clock only moves forward.

You make some great points, and I don't disagree with anything, here. While adding a #2 SP'er's affect on rotation depth maybe be less valuable than 5th OF'er depth, I do think these two points override your concerns (and mine.)

1. I think our 5th OF'er will still be better than most teams (after Anthony, Rafaela, Abreu and Refsnyder, we still have Campbell, Yoshida and Garcia- maybe even Romy.)

2. Adding a solid #2 starter is a huge boost for playoff chances and way outweighs 5th OF'er depth. It also pushes Bello to 3 and Gio to 4 or the pen for the playoffs- another big boost. It also offers insurance against an injury by a top 3 SP'er.

This trade helps for the playoffs and in getting us to the playoffs plus beyond 2025.

I guess I just love looking at a 26 man roster starting from the top 3 in the rotation.

Crochet

Skenes (Ryan)

Bello (Gio for 2025 maybe '26)

That is WS winning quality.

We have a great closer that will need to be extended or replaced.

We have a super young core of everyday players and awesome depth, everywhere but C and corner IF, and I'm not for trading any of that depth.

I'm also super high on Garcia as an OF'er and think Campbell is better suited for LF than 1B or 2B, once he gets used to it over CF. Even if Ref retires after 2025, Garcia and Campbell should be fine. Trading or signing OF depth is not expensive, if we need to later on. (Tibbs & Bleis are not far away, either and maybe Cespedes moves to the OF, soon.)

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Tell that to the Dodgers who run out of starting pitchers every playoffs. 

Tell the Astros, who just keep winning despite having 3-4 of their top 6-7 SP'ers on the IL every minute for the last 3-4 years.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You make some great points, and I don't disagree with anything, here. While adding a #2 SP'er's affect on rotation depth maybe be less valuable than 5th OF'er depth, I do think these two points override your concerns (and mine.)

1. I think our 5th OF'er will still be better than most teams (after Anthony, Rafaela, Abreu and Refsnyder, we still have Campbell, Yoshida and Garcia- maybe even Romy.)

2. Adding a solid #2 starter is a huge boost for playoff chances and way outweighs 5th OF'er depth. It also pushes Bello to 3 and Gio to 4 or the pen for the playoffs- another big boost. It also offers insurance against an injury by a top 3 SP'er.

This trade helps for the playoffs and in getting us to the playoffs plus beyond 2025.

I guess I just love looking at a 26 man roster starting from the top 3 in the rotation.

Crochet

Skenes (Ryan)

Bello (Gio for 2025 maybe '26)

That is WS winning quality.

We have a great closer that will need to be extended or replaced.

We have a super young core of everyday players and awesome depth, everywhere but C and corner IF, and I'm not for trading any of that depth.

I'm also super high on Garcia as an OF'er and think Campbell is better suited for LF than 1B or 2B, once he gets used to it over CF. Even if Ref retires after 2025, Garcia and Campbell should be fine. Trading or signing OF depth is not expensive, if we need to later on. (Tibbs & Bleis are not far away, either and maybe Cespedes moves to the OF, soon.)

I think you are making some great points also, and if Duran was an upcoming free-agent , i would be less against it.  But Im honestly struggling to understand why trade Duran over Campbell if you think Campbell steps in at LF.  Is it a trade value thing? Do you think Campbells trade value went down the tubes while Duran maintains very high trade value?

How many years until you think Campbell is a better LF than Duran? Im thinking at least 2-3. So keep Duran and flip Campbell for Ryan. Can someone give me a BTV check on Duran vs Campbell?

[Maxbialystock]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Give up Duran ( three years control) for a guy who does not project to be in your playoff rotation?

 

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Give up Duran ( three years control) for a guy who does not project to be in your playoff rotation?

Right now job 1 is getting to the playoffs, which are by no means guaranteed.  

But you have me confused.  I was commenting on your phrase, "2nd starter," which to me means 2d only to Crochet.  I don't think that's necessary.  Desirable, sure, but at what cost?  

I like the arguments on both sides of whether or not to trade Duran.  

 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think you are making some great points also, and if Duran was an upcoming free-agent , i would be less against it.  But Im honestly struggling to understand why trade Duran over Campbell if you think Campbell steps in at LF.  Is it a trade value thing? Do you think Campbells trade value went down the tubes while Duran maintains very high trade value?

How many years until you think Campbell is a better LF than Duran? Im thinking at least 2-3. So keep Duran and flip Campbell for Ryan. Can someone give me a BTV check on Duran vs Campbell?

I clearly value Duran over Campbell/Garcia/Yoshida in LF, but I see Anthony as our LF'er, if we trade Duran.

I see the step down from Duran as way smaller than the step up we get with a solid #2 SP'er. That's it in a nutshell. I love Duran. For all we know, Anthony could be a step up over Duran, but likely not for 2025, so I see your worry about messing with out 2025 chances, but again, that huge addition at #2 SP'er is worth it, to me. Now, one could argue about how much better Ryan is than Bello or Gio, right now, and that is a valid point. In the playoffs, Bello or Gio would be the 3rd starter and the other in the pen, which does need help and depth, too.

Campbell and Garcia become the #4 and #5 OF'ers you were worrying about, so much. Right now, it's Anthony, Ref and Yoshida/Campbell.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

 

Right now job 1 is getting to the playoffs, which are by no means guaranteed.  

But you have me confused.  I was commenting on your phrase, "2nd starter," which to me means 2d only to Crochet.  I don't think that's necessary.  Desirable, sure, but at what cost?  

I like the arguments on both sides of whether or not to trade Duran.  

 

What do we need more to make the playoffs? Anthony on the bench or a solid SP'er, who would bump the 5th starter to the pen, thereby improving it, too?

If it's not Anthony on the bench, it's Duran. Rafaela or Abreu v R and Ref v L.

I'm okay with benching Yoshida, but we know Cora will play him too much, at a top MLB OF'er expense.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

 

Right now job 1 is getting to the playoffs, which are by no means guaranteed.  

But you have me confused.  I was commenting on your phrase, "2nd starter," which to me means 2d only to Crochet.  I don't think that's necessary.  Desirable, sure, but at what cost?  

I like the arguments on both sides of whether or not to trade Duran.  

 

I think we go three man rotation in the playoffs, you expressed that you are very happy with our top 3.

A SP acquisition, in my opinion is help getting to playoffs, and also protection against an injury to pitchers #2,3 (I think no way to protect against a Crochet injury). It also helps pen in playoffs, because whomever gets bumped out of Crochet, Gio, Bello, this SP to be acquired would drastically help pen.

EROD was the #4 pitcher on this team for years and made like 2 career postseason starts for us.  Whomever that #4 pitcher is , is getting bumped for Crochet on short rest (unless we can afford to drop a game)

To me the more time that ticks, the less valuable that SP becomes. I want him now. Because we are coming up on a grueling stretch.  And the more time goes by, the less likely there will be a new injury (knocks on wood) and the less reg season starts a #4 pitcher will have.

But dont get me wrong , I would love a pitcher who is better than everybody not named Crochet.  I just trade Campbell and yes even Mayer (not both) before I trade Duran.  Because Duran is a guy who I want on my side in the playoffs. Hes an energy / spark-plug / small ball / sh*t-talking alpha. The value of that goes up in playoffs. The value of a #4 pitcher goes down in playoffs.

[Hitch]

28 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Just exactly what do you mean by "2nd starter?"  

I ask because to me the first three starter positions are filled:  Crochet ERA 2.23, Bello 3.14, and Giolito 3.36.  When was the last time the Sox had three starters with those ERA's?  Crochet also has 12 quality starts out of 20 overall, Bello has 9 out of 15, and Giolito has 9 out of 13.  You think those guys are chopped liver?  

I am by no means against getting another starter and would not hesitate to trade Duran for the right deal.  

 

 

Just down to the amount of times I keep hearing his name Joe Ryan is the guy in my mind if Padres bring in a 3rd team. He's a 2. And I'd trust him over Bello and Gio, even though my trust levels are growing in both. If we get someone like him - it's on. 

But that doesn't matter - that's old news now. Notin is off to land Skenes, so we'll just go with two 1's instead. 😎

[Hitch]

19 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think you are making some great points also, and if Duran was an upcoming free-agent , i would be less against it.  But Im honestly struggling to understand why trade Duran over Campbell if you think Campbell steps in at LF.  Is it a trade value thing? Do you think Campbells trade value went down the tubes while Duran maintains very high trade value?

How many years until you think Campbell is a better LF than Duran? Im thinking at least 2-3. So keep Duran and flip Campbell for Ryan. Can someone give me a BTV check on Duran vs Campbell?

Do you think the Twins take Campbell for Ryan? I think there's no chance. 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I clearly value Duran over Campbell/Garcia/Yoshida in LF, but I see Anthony as our LF'er, if we trade Duran.

I see the step down from Duran as way smaller than the step up we get with a solid #2 SP'er. That's it in a nutshell. I love Duran. For all we know, Anthony could be a step up over Duran, but likely not for 2025, so I see your worry about messing with out 2025 chances, but again, that huge addition at #2 SP'er is worth it, to me. Now, one could argue about how much better Ryan is than Bello or Gio, right now, and that is a valid point. In the playoffs, Bello or Gio would be the 3rd starter and the other in the pen, which does need help and depth, too.

Campbell and Garcia become the #4 and #5 OF'ers you were worrying about, so much. Right now, it's Anthony, Ref and Yoshida/Campbell.

Why not just trade Campbell? I dont trust Yoshida, Bregman, Mayer, Toro to stay healthy and productive through playoffs. You can use OF overflow to cover in any event.  Im not sure Mayer is on our playoff roster. Im not sure Yoshida is either. Or even Toro. Bregman has a high re-injury risk right now.  Id rather keep the depth. Keeping Duran allows you to play Cedanne in INF in playoffs should Mayer look overmatche or Bregman get reinjured or Toro continue to fade.  If we trade from Abreu or Duran and wind up with Campbell (or Toro) in a key playoff role, that is a mistake.  And Mayer is not a lock either. Playoffs arent the time to focus on anything but winning the next game.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

Just down to the amount of times I keep hearing his name Joe Ryan is the guy in my mind if Padres bring in a 3rd team. He's a 2. And I'd trust him over Bello and Gio, even though my trust levels are growing in both. If we get someone like him - it's on. 

But that doesn't matter - that's old news now. Notin is off to land Skenes, so we'll just go with two 1's instead. 😎

I think Ryan is a lot more likely.

[mvp 78]

I think a deal for Keller makes more sense than a deal for Ryan. Keller would provide a lot of value. You'd keep the OFers through the end of the year. I think you can then decide between Abreu and Duran in the offseason when you can really plan out the roster more fully than on the fly. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

Do you think the Twins take Campbell for Ryan? I think there's no chance. 

I was hoping so.

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think Ryan is a lot more likely.

Oh 1000%. There's virtually no chance of us getting Skenes I don't think. But I like to dream on these things.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Why not just trade Campbell? I dont trust Yoshida, Bregman, Mayer, Toro to stay healthy

If you're worried about replacing those 4, Campbell (IF/OF) is a better replacement for their skills than Duran (OF only).