Red Sox (Dobbins) vs Giants (Birdsong): 6/20/25, 10:15pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Woof. This is going to be interesting.

[notin]

Sticking with an over/under of 3.5 HRs by Devers…

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, notin said:

Sticking with an over/under of 3.5 HRs by Devers…

3.5 HR in 3 games is a 189 HR season pace.  No wonder Vegas rejected your job application.  

[mvp 78]

If the Red Sox haven't learned how to pitch around Devers at this point, he deserves to send a few into McCovey Cove. 

I've never seen Birdsong pitch before, so I don't know how well he'll do at keeping these bats from waking up from their 8 game slide. Looks like lots of whiffs and k's, which isn't a good sign for the BoSox.

[notin]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

3.5 HR in 3 games is a 189 HR season pace.  No wonder Vegas rejected your job application.  

Who said anything about all season?

Im just predicting some Revenge Mashing over a single weekend series.  The only thing working against Devers is the games are in SF, and that right field wall is very far, very tall, and very often backed up by incoming breezes that make home runs difficult there…
 

 

[mvp 78]

The one thing that is certain, no matter what feed you put on, it's going to be brutal to listen to. The mute button will be my friend. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

3.5 HR in 3 games is a 189 HR season pace.  No wonder Vegas rejected your job application.  

If we adjust for park factor, its even more than that! SF park isnt very hitter friendly.

[drewski6]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

Who said anything about all season?

Im just predicting some Revenge Mashing over a single weekend series.  The only thing working against Devers is the games are in SF, and that right field wall is very far, very tall, and very often backed up by incoming breezes that make home runs difficult there…
 

 

Wrote my post before seeing this one. Agreed on park factor.  

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If we adjust for park factor, its even more than that! SF park isnt very hitter friendly.

According to Devers's Statcast: 

Expected Career HR's at Fenway 203

Expected Career HR's at PacBell/At&t/Oracle/ETC 201

SF won't be great for him, but it wasn't all that hot for him in BOS either (career 223 HR). 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

According to Devers's Statcast: 

Expected Career HR's at Fenway 203

Expected Career HR's at PacBell/At&t/Oracle/ETC 201

SF won't be great for him, but it wasn't all that hot for him in BOS either (career 223 HR). 

Thats some data right there

[moonslav59]

What's the over/under on Devers BBs?

7?

[mvp 78]

SF is death for power hitters on either side of the plate, unless they are on the cream or clear. This is just for LHB though.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

What's the over/under on Devers BBs?

7?

There aren't enough hitters on that team to make you pay to throw him any strikes that Devers can do damage with. I think Gio will know how to do it. Dobbins I'm not sure on. Bello may be in big trouble against him. 

[drewski6]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

SF is death for power hitters on either side of the plate, unless they are on the cream or clear. This is just for LHB though.

Understood Fenway isnt great for lefties either, but that looks like still a signifiant drop to go from 108 to 95 (park factor).  Also, assuming 100 = average.  To have #21 be at 108 (slightly above average) and have 27 be only at 95 (slightly below average) is crazy.  What are 28-30 park factors, in the teens?  Something has to be really weighing that down (or Im overlooking something)

This is a great illustration of median vs mean

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Understood Fenway isnt great for lefties either, but that looks like still a signifiant drop to go from 108 to 95 (park factor).  Also, assuming 100 = average.  To have #21 be at 108 (slightly above average) and have 27 be only at 95 (slightly below average) is crazy.  What are 28-30 park factors, in the teens?  Something has to be really weighing that down (or Im overlooking something)

This is a great illustration of median vs mean

28th is KC. 29th and 30th aren't listed because LOL A's and LOL Rays screw it up by moving to AAA stadiums. 

Play around with the table HERE

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

There aren't enough hitters on that team to make you pay to throw him any strikes that Devers can do damage with. I think Gio will know how to do it. Dobbins I'm not sure on. Bello may be in big trouble against him. 

Why?  Think Bello will choose this outing to actually find the strike zone?

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

SF is death for power hitters on either side of the plate, unless they are on the cream or clear. This is just for LHB though.

So what you’re saying is Oracle Park is even less friendly than Oracle software…

[Bellhorn04]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Who said anything about all season?

Im just predicting some Revenge Mashing over a single weekend series.  The only thing working against Devers is the games are in SF, and that right field wall is very far, very tall, and very often backed up by incoming breezes that make home runs difficult there…
 

 

You're going to get smoked on the under bets.  Just sayin'.  😜

[Larry Cook]

I really wish bres-slow had gotten birdsong included in the Devers deal even if we had to throw in a prospect !!!!!  

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Why?  Think Bello will choose this outing to actually find the strike zone?

He's a guy who lets innings get away from him due to his emotions. He's very friendly with Raffy so it may be emotional for him. I think he makes a mistake pitch or two. I'd rather they treat him like Barry Bonds and just intentionally walk him. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Seattle scored 9 runs and had 13 hits against the Cubs today. All 13 hits came after there were 2 outs. Included with the 13 hits were 5 HR's.  

 

[Thunder]

7 hours ago, notin said:

Who said anything about all season?

Im just predicting some Revenge Mashing over a single weekend series.  The only thing working against Devers is the games are in SF, and that right field wall is very far, very tall, and very often backed up by incoming breezes that make home runs difficult there…
 

And the breeze is quite stiff here today. I just spent 3-4 hours walking around in a hoodie and sweats and I never got warm enough to take them off.

[Thunder]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

SF is death for power hitters on either side of the plate, unless they are on the cream or clear. This is just for LHB though.

Explains why they couldn't get Judge, Ohtani or Soto

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

9 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Seattle scored 9 runs and had 13 hits against the Cubs today. All 13 hits came after there were 2 outs. Included with the 13 hits were 5 HR's.  

 

After many years Sammy Sosa was at Wrigley today. The cheater was cheered by the fans. Steroids weren't enough for Sammy; he also had to load his bat.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Thunder said:

Explains why they couldn't get Judge, Ohtani or Soto

Not sure how it would impact a mega deal like that. Did they offer Soto 700M? Ohtani was LA for sure. With Judge, I think he just didn’t want to leave NYY and the numbers were very similar.

[Nick]

Maybe Whitlock can pitch today with one day of rest. He only threw 9 pitches.

He's only pitched back to back days once this year and he did just fine.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Seattle scored 9 runs and had 13 hits against the Cubs today. All 13 hits came after there were 2 outs. Included with the 13 hits were 5 HR's.  

We need to get a lil of what their smokin'.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Nick said:

Maybe Whitlock can pitch today with one day of rest. He only threw 9 pitches.

He's only pitched back to back days once this year and he did just fine.

He should be able to. This would be back to back games not days.

[Maxbialystock]

9 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Woof. This is going to be interesting.

Woof is right!!!!!  Thank goodness it's on a Friday night.  

Agree. May I add that my fix for Whitlock was to reduce his repertoire, and I'm pretty sure he didn't do that. 

What we see now is why they wanted him to start, but I think it's just about unanimous, fans and coaches alike, he needs to be a great reliever if can.  

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He should be able to. This would be back to back games not days.

 

[Maxbialystock]

Game time is just around the corner--3 hours and change.  Where the heck is everybody?