Article: Even Without Rafael Devers, the Red Sox Need to be Buyers on the Rental Market

[Alex Mayes]

The Milwaukee Brewers traded RHP Aaron Civale on Friday, June 13, the day after he requested a trade because he was moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen. Civale is now with the White Sox, while former number three overall pick Andrew Vaughn is plying his trade Brew Crew. Civale was having a down-year before the trade, sitting on a 1-2 record with a 4.91 ERA and 19 strikeouts. Vaughn is also having quite a miserable year, slashing .189/.218/.314.

Civale was surely hoping for a better season as he approaches free agency going into next year, but the White Sox may offer him a chance to improve his overall numbers with much less pressure. While Vaughn is also underperforming, he has some pedigree attached to him due to his draft position. If this is the going rate for rental starters, the Red Sox should be big players in that market as we approach the trade deadline.

Obviously, players like Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell, and Carlos Narvaez are off the table when it comes to trade talks. After that list, though? Everyone should have a price tag attached if it could net the Sox another reliable arm for the rotation. Would someone like Jhostynxon Garcia be enticing enough for someone like the Padres to listen to offers for Michael King or Dylan Cease? Surely Garcia would be of interest to the Cardinals with Erick Fedde eyeing free agency in 2026. It’s no secret that the Red Sox are listening to offers on both Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu to help clear up the outfield log jam, and both of those names should command a starter with years of control left if the going rate is Vaughn for Civale. The caveat is that if the Sox bring in a rental, they need to work to extend him quickly after the plane lands in Boston. Having Garrett Crochet as your starting anchor and the young core of up and coming superstars playing behind you should make any other pitcher brought in feel more at ease with signing here long-term (that is, assuming they aren't scared off by the team's sudden reputation of trading away fan-favorite stars).

It was reported last week that the Red Sox plan to be buyers at the trade deadline, even if they aren’t necessarily in playoff contention this season. That's gotten harder to believe in a post-Rafael Devers world, but the team is still playing its best baseball of the season right now. If the market is this weak, there’s no reason the front office shouldn’t be wheeling and dealing right now. Bring in pitchers, both starters and relievers, that can make an impact now. This team is on a hot streak and in the midst of its longest road trip of the season. There’s a clear path to a Wild Card spot in the American League, but the front office needs to commit to the product on the field. Should they have been in the conversation for Civale? I don’t think so—he doesn’t move the needle over anyone currently in the rotation or those pitchers who are nearing return from injury—but there are names out there that Craig Breslow needs to be inquiring about as you’re reading this. 2025 may not be the year the Sox go back to the World Series, but bringing in pitchers who can make this year’s team better while upgrading next year’s rotation without the guarantee of Lucas Giolito or Walker Buehler coming back is essential. 

It’s true that Civale requested this trade, which likely lessened the return just a bit. He wanted to be a starter, and his agent was exploring how that could happen, either still within the Brewers’ organization or outside of it. Ultimately, they decided that leaving Milwaukee was in his best interest and he’s now in Chicago. Not every pitcher who is in their walk year will ask for a trade, but there will surely be some that become more vocal after seeing how quickly the Brewers moved on from Civale. Should that happen, Craig Breslow and company would be fools not to capitalize on it. 

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[moonslav59]

Good rentals often cost way more than their worth. Deadline deals are often rooted in desperation and hopes that 1-2 players can get a team over the hump and onwards to glory.

It almost worked for us in 2021. The Schwarber trade, along wit savvy additions like Iggy, Shaw and Robles got us within a few outs of a WS appearance. The Schwarber trade cost us the highest ranked prospect Bloom  ever traded, but it was only Aldo Ramirez, who was something like our 10th ranked prospect in a pretty depleted farm system, at the time.

To get the Kikuchi''s of the world, like HOU did, last year, it's going to cost way more than Aldo Ramirez. 

I'm fine with trading Mikey Romero or even Cespedes or Bleis, since I view them as blocked, anyway. (Yes, nobody is really blocked, when they are 2-3 years away, but anyway....) Guys like these three, plus maybe a Mullins or Sandlin, might get us a couple useful players, but I'm not so sure even those type deals are worth it. 

We can do better with winter trades, and we have proven that over even these bad years.

Recent winter deals:

Top prospects for Crochet.

Elmer Rodriguez for Narvaez

Verdugo for Fitts, Weissert and others.

Scraps for O'Neill

Recent Deadline deals:

Paxton, Luis Garcia, Lucas Sims (2024)

Urias, Llovera, Nick Robertson (2023)

To be fair, the deadline deals of 2022 were better, but just the one where we were selling (Vaz for Abreu & EValdez)

[TedYazPapiMookie]

Trades are needed but not rentals.  Long term on offense the following players are supposed to be the future:

C - Narvaez, 1B-Casas, 2B-Campbell, SS-Mayer, 3B-Bregman, LF- Anthony, CF - Duran, RF- Rafaela and DH- Abreu with Wong, Story, Toro and Refsnyder the reserves.

This offense is lacking power with Devers gone.  The team has a $18 Million dollar wasted player who is not as good as Abreu/Refsnyder at DH.  So, the goal needs to be to deal Yoshida and pick which starter above is not a potential all-star at their position.

Duran has been one.  Rafaela may be the best defender and if moved to RF he will win GG for the next decade.  Anthony has the star next to his name as an expected all-star.  Abreu/Refsnyder are very serviceable players but nothing special.  Narvaez COULD be an all-star or he may simply be experiencing a career year like Wong last year.  Bregman is an all-star.  Mayer also has a star next to his name as an expected all-star and Campbell the Minor League Player of the Year has earned a star next to his name.  Casas, is an enigma, but does have excellent upside potential.

So where is an upgrade needed for immediate talent growth for the roster?  I think Cal Raleigh stands out as a trade worthy opponent simply because he replaces Devers power and is an all-star catcher.  Having two studs or trading Narvaez to get Raleigh are both acceptable ideas.  The deal needs to include Yoshida and any prospects not listed as starters above other than Abreu and Refsnyder as potential candidates for the trade including any of the players we received in the Devers deal.

Additionally, I personally feel Kurtz from OAK has a far higher ceiling than Casas so trading Casas and prospects to get him makes a lot of sense.  That would leave a 2026 starting defense that would be Division Championship worthy and an offense that should be at the top of the heat within two years.

[moonslav59]

Trades for longer term players are usually made in the winter. They are usually less expensive, too.

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Trades are needed but not rentals.  Long term on offense the following players are supposed to be the future:

C - Narvaez, 1B-Casas, 2B-Campbell, SS-Mayer, 3B-Bregman, LF- Anthony, CF - Duran, RF- Rafaela and DH- Abreu with Wong, Story, Toro and Refsnyder the reserves.

This offense is lacking power with Devers gone.  The team has a $18 Million dollar wasted player who is not as good as Abreu/Refsnyder at DH.  So, the goal needs to be to deal Yoshida and pick which starter above is not a potential all-star at their position.

Duran has been one.  Rafaela may be the best defender and if moved to RF he will win GG for the next decade.  Anthony has the star next to his name as an expected all-star.  Abreu/Refsnyder are very serviceable players but nothing special.  Narvaez COULD be an all-star or he may simply be experiencing a career year like Wong last year.  Bregman is an all-star.  Mayer also has a star next to his name as an expected all-star and Campbell the Minor League Player of the Year has earned a star next to his name.  Casas, is an enigma, but does have excellent upside potential.

So where is an upgrade needed for immediate talent growth for the roster?  I think Cal Raleigh stands out as a trade worthy opponent simply because he replaces Devers power and is an all-star catcher.  Having two studs or trading Narvaez to get Raleigh are both acceptable ideas.  The deal needs to include Yoshida and any prospects not listed as starters above other than Abreu and Refsnyder as potential candidates for the trade including any of the players we received in the Devers deal.

Additionally, I personally feel Kurtz from OAK has a far higher ceiling than Casas so trading Casas and prospects to get him makes a lot of sense.  That would leave a 2026 starting defense that would be Division Championship worthy and an offense that should be at the top of the heat within two years.

They tried trading Casas and Masa last offseason and couldn't pull the trigger. Now that they've been injured, how are they going to get those deals done? Seems like they'll be stuck with both for a while unless they are eating a substantial portion of Masa's deal and take pennies on the dollar for Casas. 

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Trades for longer term players are usually made in the winter. They are usually less expensive, too.

I think that's when a more substantial trade could be made. Right now, it'd be for expiring contracts or dealing for prospects. 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think that's when a more substantial trade could be made. Right now, it'd be for expiring contracts or dealing for prospects. 

Or a contract that has short term < 3 years, but has fallen underwater and a sweetner for taking the bad contract.

[drewski6]

Where's Harmony? This guy is proposing we get Cal Raleigh for a package that includes Nav and Yoshida (and unnamed prospects).

Can anyone name 5 players right now with more trade value than Cal Raleigh, signed 6 years at a modest amount and one of the only catchers that can really hurt you?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They tried trading Casas and Masa last offseason and couldn't pull the trigger. Now that they've been injured, how are they going to get those deals done? Seems like they'll be stuck with both for a while unless they are eating a substantial portion of Masa's deal and take pennies on the dollar for Casas. 

We could have traded Casas, but I think we insisted on including Masa without enough cash going the other way.

I can't remember all the trade suggestions I made to SEA, many involving taking back salary like Garver's and or Haniger's to help balance out Masa. I think one was Masa, Casas & Abreu  for Woo plus their two salary dumps.

I think the main talk was Masa & Casas for Castillo and his big contract, but SEA did not want Masa, or maybe they wanted us to pay way more cash than we wanted to include.

I'm not sure what else was out there.

I tried things like Masa and ___ for Arenado, but not Casas.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Where's Harmony? This guy is proposing we get Cal Raleigh for a package that includes Nav and Yoshida (and unnamed prospects).

Can anyone name 5 players right now with more trade value than Cal Raleigh, signed 6 years at a modest amount and one of the only catchers that can really hurt you?

Sometimes you have to just ignore the really crazy stuff. 

Roman, Campbell, Dobbins, Duran, Harrison, Sandlin

for 

Judge, Jazz

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Where's Harmony? This guy is proposing we get Cal Raleigh for a package that includes Nav and Yoshida (and unnamed prospects).

Can anyone name 5 players right now with more trade value than Cal Raleigh, signed 6 years at a modest amount and one of the only catchers that can really hurt you?

SEA wouldn't take Nav, KC, Masas and $5M a year for Cal.

[drewski6]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sometimes you have to just ignore the really crazy stuff. 

Roman, Campbell, Dobbins, Duran, Harrison, Sandlin

for 

Judge, Jazz

Right but I need Harmony to appear to so I can use my Joe Hendry joke

[drewski6]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

SEA wouldn't take Nav, KC, Masas and $5M a year for Cal.

They wouldnt take Roman and Masas and Nav and 10m/yr either.

[drewski6]

I dont think they take anything.

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think they take anything.

It'd have to involve Roman IMO. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They tried trading Casas and Masa last offseason and couldn't pull the trigger. Now that they've been injured, how are they going to get those deals done? Seems like they'll be stuck with both for a while unless they are eating a substantial portion of Masa's deal and take pennies on the dollar for Casas. 

There is always one more choice.  What percentage of the top 20 prospects in the Red Sox organization will make it to the MLB in your opinion?  My guess is 30 to 50% at most.  That means 50 to 70% of them won't so those players get thrown in the deals rather than buying down the Yoshida money.  Casas is a talented player and will start for somebody in the future.  Kurtz to me has a higher upside so a decent prospect plus Casas should get a deal done since it's Oakland and they like the prospects in deals to stock their future. 

Yoshida is a DH with limited defensive skills.  A team like Colorado is using Tyler Freeman at DH.  Giving them Yoshida and 3 or even 4 of the farm system guys in the unlikely to make the MLB category for Hunter Goodman would be a great trade for both teams.  Colorado needs to build for the future and Goodman is second to Raleigh in my opinion at catcher.  We need the upgrade at Catcher because Wong was never 1/2 the solution at catcher.  Narvaez and Goodman would be a great combo, and Goodman has backed up at 1B for Colorado.  He's a power hitter and helps close the gap with Devers gone with respect to HR power. 

I think Yoshida and at least 3 non-top end prospects to a team rebuilding is the way to reduce salary while adding value.

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

There is always one more choice.  What percentage of the top 20 prospects in the Red Sox organization will make it to the MLB in your opinion?  My guess is 30 to 50% at most. 

I think the 30% estimation is low. 

From 10 years ago, 15 of the top 20 guys made the majors (75%). From 2020, 14 made the majors and that doesn't include Mata and Song who were on 40 man rosters (70%). 

If we go by SoxProspects rankings (Fitts granduated) the are already at 15%:

Anthony MLB

Mayer MLB

Arias will be MLB (almost every top 5 prospect has made MLB)

Perales - on 40 man, will be MLB

Tolle - will be MLB

Valera - maybe? 

Garcia - on 40 man, will be MLB

Dobbins MLB

Romero - will be MLB

Clarke - will be MLB

Early - will be MLB

Sandlin - will be MLB

Bleis - maybe? 

Cespedes - maybe? 

Gonzales - maybe? 

Paez - maybe? 

Soto - maybe? 

Monegro - maybe? 

Taylor - maybe?

Azocar - maybe? 

I'm already at 55% with enough maybes and about half of them will make it and half will fizzle out, which brings us to about 75%.

 

 

[notin]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Where's Harmony? This guy is proposing we get Cal Raleigh for a package that includes Nav and Yoshida (and unnamed prospects).

Can anyone name 5 players right now with more trade value than Cal Raleigh, signed 6 years at a modest amount and one of the only catchers that can really hurt you?

BTV gives Raleigh a surplus value of $155mill, good for fifth overall in MLB and MiLB.

The only players with more trade value based on their model are Vlad Guerrero Jr, Shohei Ohtani, Julio Rodriguez, and Bobby Witt Jr….

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

BTV gives Raleigh a surplus value of $155mill, good for fifth overall in MLB and MiLB.

The only players with more trade value based on their model are Vlad Guerrero Jr, Shohei Ohtani, Julio Rodriguez, and Bobby Witt Jr….

How does Vlad have surplus trade value with a 500M contract? I can't buy into their model. 

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

SEA wouldn't take Nav, KC, Masas and $5M a year for Cal.

i'm sure they won't deal Raleigh but i bet they would deal Harry Ford, their overall #5 prospect, who is currently manning the backstop at AAA Tacoma. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'm sure they won't deal Raleigh but i bet they would deal Harry Ford, their overall #5 prospect, who is currently manning the backstop at AAA Tacoma. 

The Sox don't need a #1 catcher. Backup catcher? Sure. They need pitching and a way to clear out some of the other dead contracts on the books.

[notin]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How does Vlad have surplus trade value with a 500M contract? I can't buy into their model. 

Lots of projected WAR? It’s a simple model, but it’s not perfect.  I use it as a source, not as an authority…

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

Lots of projected WAR? It’s a simple model, but it’s not perfect.  I use it as a source, not as an authority…

At 8M per WAR, there's a chance he doesn't earn his contract this year. He wouldn't have earned it in '22 or '23. I don't know about those projections for him. 

[harmony]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'm sure they won't deal Raleigh but i bet they would deal Harry Ford, their overall #5 prospect, who is currently manning the backstop at AAA Tacoma. 

FWIW this year Seattle prospect catcher Harry Ford has posted a .313/.425/.483/.909 line with a wRC+ of 138 and `17.7 percent strikeout rate in 55 games at Triple A Tacoma.

The 22-year-old Ford may be the top Mariner trade chip at the July 31 deadline.

Or not.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'm sure they won't deal Raleigh but i bet they would deal Harry Ford, their overall #5 prospect, who is currently manning the backstop at AAA Tacoma. 

We have a great defensive Catcher hitting over .800 and under team control for 4+ years. He may win ROY.

Of all the positions we need upgraded, catcher is down on my list. To get a good one will be very costly.

[harmony]

6 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Where's Harmony? This guy is proposing we get Cal Raleigh for a package that includes Nav and Yoshida (and unnamed prospects).

Can anyone name 5 players right now with more trade value than Cal Raleigh, signed 6 years at a modest amount and one of the only catchers that can really hurt you?

Seattle would be unlikely to trade Mitch Garver for that Red Sox package.

BTW Cal Raleigh and Garver combined for four home runs and eight RBI in today's 9-4 win over the first-place Chicago Cubs. With his 28th and 29th roundtrippers, Raleigh now has the most home runs in MLB history for a catcher before the All Star break.

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, harmony said:

Seattle would be unlikely to trade Mitch Garver for that Red Sox package.

BTW Cal Raleigh and Garver combined for four home runs and eight RBI in today's 9-4 win over the first-place Chicago Cubs. With his 28th and 29th roundtrippers, Raleigh now has the most home runs in MLB history for a catcher before the All Star break.

Cal just passed Bench for more pre ASB homers, and he did it in 14 less games!

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Seattle would be unlikely to trade Mitch Garver for that Red Sox package.

BTW Cal Raleigh and Garver combined for four home runs and eight RBI in today's 9-4 win over the first-place Chicago Cubs. With his 28th and 29th roundtrippers, Raleigh now has the most home runs in MLB history for a catcher before the All Star break.

Yeah, my hunch was Cal was a top 5 asset in baseball, which is why I through it out there to the forum if they could name 5 better values, and it turns out BTV has Cal 5th, and I disagree with 2 in front of him.

I dont think he's this good, though. As in #2 value in the league only behind Bobby Witt.  But I may be biased towards a few guys who I like because I like playing as them in MLB the show (xbox)

[drewski6]

But I maintain, there is no package within a football field of reasonable that Seattle entertains for Cal Raleigh. 

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Cal just passed Bench for more pre ASB homers, and he did it in 14 less games!

Thats nuts

[harmony]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Yeah, my hunch was Cal was a top 5 asset in baseball, which is why I through it out there to the forum if they could name 5 better values, and it turns out BTV has Cal 5th, and I disagree with 2 in front of him.

I dont think he's this good, though. As in #2 value in the league only behind Bobby Witt.  But I may be biased towards a few guys who I like because I like playing as them in MLB the show (xbox)

Let's not forget that last season Cal Raleigh won the Platinum Glove as the best defensive player in the American League at any position.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cal-raleigh-brice-turang-win-2024-platinum-glove-awards

And who leads all catchers in stolen bases this season ... by a significant margin?