Article: Mookie Betts 2.0: Rafael Devers Trade Continues Harrowing Red Sox Tradition

[Jasonbay44]

4 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Again, that was before they traded devers. Smh......

And it was after they traded Mookie and let Xander go. What is your point? 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

15 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Devers is being paid $5Million over the going rate for DHs so it's already underwater.  Now here are some facts that should be considered to prove ti's WAY UNDERWAY.

1 - Mookie spent 5 full seasons in Boston with a 42.5 WAR if you believe in WAR.  His OPS+ was 137.  He won a GG four years, was an all-star starting at 23 for four years, he won an MVP and finished 2nd, 6th, 8th and 19th his other 4 seasons.  He won a silver slugger 3 times in the five seasons.  Those achievements should have earned him $36Million a year but he got low-balled and then given away.

Devers stats part way into his 9th seasons (7 full ones and 2 partial) are 24.9 WAR and a 129 OPS+.  Significantly lower than Mookie!!  Until he was finally dragged off 3B with a career .944 fielding percentage when league average was .961 (17 below league average) and a Rdrs of -61, Devers actual value was below his offensive value which was simply a little above league average.

2 - #1 shows it would be a stretch at his current production level for the contract to be a break even.  Now take the highly unlikely chance that he fulfills his contract and guess the drop off rate over time.  Two players far greater than Devers (Pujols and Cabrera) both came into the league around the same age as Devers.  Both had far better numbers through age 26.  A 10-year contract starting at 27 should last through his 36-year-old season.  Pujols stopped putting up monster numbers after his 32-year-old season.  His OPS+ dropped from 136 his lowest number until then to 121.  His WAR dropped from 4.8 to 1.6 and never made it back to 4.8.  Cabrera who was the next great hitter after Pujols.  Cabrera stopped producing after his 33-year-old season.  He went from an OPS+ of 155 to 93.  He only had 2 over 100 the next 7 seasons and one was 128 and the other was 104.  The drop was dramatic, overnight.  His WAR dropped from 4.9 to -0,9.  Most of his remaining years were negative with 0.3 his highest.

BOTH great players who are far superior in hitting to Devers fell off the table with respect to their offense after age 32 and 33.  Considering how much better than Devers they are I predicted Devers dramatic drop off would happen after his 31-yr old season.  Thus 32 to 36 or 1/2 his contract would be completely under water.  A total waste.  That's roughly $150 Million in payroll wasted. 

This trade was a miracle.  Breslow should have earned HUGE brownie points with ownership.  He saved the Red Sox a ton of money, improved the clubhouse and opened up the doors for more effective use of that same money.

So it's not total BS.  The contract, best case, would have fallen at least $150Million short from a performance standpoint.  Soto and Guerrero are separate cases just like Mookie was.  The big difference with Mookie is that Mookie stays in shape and is a great athlete so at age 39 he'll be much better than Devers at age 32!!!  He's the Tom Brady of baseball.  He's still bowling 300 on a regular basis.  Physical conditioning won't be why Mookie's skill will finally drop off near 40,

He may still bowl 300 but he ain't hitting .300 and his OPS is below .800!

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

Just now, Jasonbay44 said:

And it was after they traded Mookie and let Xander go. What is your point? 

Just adds to the track record ........

[king koji]

7 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Again, that was before they traded devers. Smh......

Right, and Devers was GIVEN a market-level 313 million dollar Contract by the Organization. I'm sure Anthony and Mayer are quaking right now.

 

 

 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 minute ago, king koji said:

Right, and Devers was GIVEN a market-level 313 million dollar Contract by the Organization. I'm sure Anthony and Mayer are quaking right now.

 

 

 

Well, they aren't going to be free agents anytime soon, so.....

Great analysis.......

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Well, we'll see if beantowne puts out the highest offers. That's not exactly something they are known for.

They signed Bregman, they extended Crochet.  

I don't blame you for hoping they're not spenders any more. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They signed Bregman, they extended Crochet.  

I don't blame you for hoping they're not spenders any more. 

I don't have to "hope" anything. They really haven't been big spenders lately and the payroll backs that up. We'll see if that changes.

And as far as "they extended crochet", well, they extended devers at one point too. We all can see how that worked out.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

33 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

He may still bowl 300 but he ain't hitting .300 and his OPS is below .800!

He dealt with a minor injury in April and May but he's healthy now and his June OPS is 872 as he starts to heat up.  I expect by year end it will be in the upper 800s or higher as usual.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

Just now, TedYazPapiMookie said:

He dealt with a minor injury in April and May but he's healthy now and his June OPS is 872 as he starts to heat up.  I expect by year end it will be in the upper 800s or higher as usual.

Maybe, but they pay him to hit, not bowl.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They got $250 million off the books.  That's a pile of money for a DH. 

not exactly. Henry has to pay, what, $25-30 million for Hicks. what a f***ing shitshow.

Betts, Sale and Devers for...

Wong, Downs, Verdugo, Hicks, Harrison, Bello, Tibbs and Grissom. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, Duran Is The Man said:

not exactly. Henry has to pay, what, $25-30 million for Hicks. what a f***ing shitshow.

Betts, Sale and Devers for...

Wong, Downs, Verdugo, Hicks, Harrison, Bello, Tibbs and Grissom. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

Well, I did hate the Betts trade and the Sale trade.  We'll see about this one.  This one is more about if they spend the money they're saving.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

not exactly. Henry has to pay, what, $25-30 million for Hicks. what a f***ing shitshow.

Betts, Sale and Devers for...

Wong, Downs, Verdugo, Hicks, Harrison, Bello, Tibbs and Grissom. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

C'mon, a few more trades and they could get a full 26 man roster! 

[dgalehouse]

Hicks, along with so many pitchers , is currently on the I.L.  But when he returns, he could be useful in the bullpen. Still throws in the high 90's. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Hicks, along with so many pitchers , is currently on the I.L.  But when he returns, he could be useful in the bullpen. Still throws in the high 90's. 

Throws hard and gets hit hard. Story and Campbell better figure out how to play defense. 

He's definitely better off in the bullpen. Trying to make him a starter was a mistake. He walks a lot of guys and has only had an ERA below 4 once since COVID. 

[Duran Is The Man]

12 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Hicks, along with so many pitchers , is currently on the I.L.  But when he returns, he could be useful in the bullpen. Still throws in the high 90's. 

Hicks was a salary dump by the Giants. he's DFA material. only an idiot like Breslow would  think he's worth having.

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

No, but it adds to their latest history as to how they treat their homegrown stars.

And the team in no way, shape or form got better with this trade.

If I'm a free agent chasing a title then I certainly wouldn't have beantowne near the top of my list.

Agree about free agents chasing a title.  The Sox are still rebuilding.  

I also agree Devers is a loss in the near term because his OPS, rbi's, etc were great to have.  However, in the long term paying your DH $30M/year for 8 years is insane.   That $30M/year would be better spent on a good starter like Crochet.   However, the Giants are willing to pay Raffy $30M to DH because they don't need a third baseman or a first baseman.   And allow me to add that right now the Sox also don't need a third baseman or a first baseman.  They could use a really good DH, but Breslow ain't going to allow that and JH supports him.  

While I think Devers was not treated well by the Sox, at this point it makes sense to send him on his way.  Presumably, some combination of Campbell, Anthony, and Mayer will fill the gap, but maybe not this season.  

 

[dgalehouse]

Now Breslow is an idiot?  You are angry and not thinking rationally.

[Duran Is The Man]

10 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Now Breslow is an idiot?  You are angry and not thinking rationally.

my thinking is fine. it's Breslow and Henry who are -or were- thinking irrationally. trading him for his actions or whatever is one thing, but trading him for someone else's trash is another. 

[Maxbialystock]

24 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

not exactly. Henry has to pay, what, $25-30 million for Hicks. what a f***ing shitshow.

Betts, Sale and Devers for...

Wong, Downs, Verdugo, Hicks, Harrison, Bello, Tibbs and Grissom. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

Meh.  Betts was gone once he became a free agent because the Dodgers can afford to pay him more.  Sale was a big mistake, but at the time absolutely no one--and I mean no one--on talksox said, "big mistake, he's going to win the Cy Young award in 2024."  I've been beating up Breslow regularly over Giolito for Sale, but that is 20-20 hindsight. 

Agree the Sox ain't getting a lot for Devers, but they are dumping his salary, which is too high for a DH.  I have defended Devers relentlessly, but I agree on that point.  It was time for him to move on.   And, by the way, the Sox have played some of their best ball over last 10 games, during which Devers went 5/25 with 2 rbi's.   And don't forget Bregman was/is out also.  

FWIW, the Giants are happy to pay $30M/year for Devers to DH because their need is greater.  

Breslow didn't do Wong, Downs, Dugo, or Bello.  Besides, the real point with Devers was to dump his salary.  When we dumped Price on the Dodgers, we paid a big chunk of his salary. 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

23 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Hicks was a salary dump by the Giants. he's DFA material. only an idiot like Breslow would  think he's worth having.

I have castigated Breslow as much as anyone, but Hicks is the cost of sending Devers and his huge salary elsewhere.  

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

He dealt with a minor injury in April and May but he's healthy now and his June OPS is 872 as he starts to heat up.  I expect by year end it will be in the upper 800s or higher as usual.

Agree he's better in June than May, but in his last 7 games (June 8-15), Mookie is 5 for 26 with 1 dinger and 1 double.  

There can be no question that Mookie is still valuable for the Dodgers, who are 43-29.    He has the third highest WAR on the team. 

[illinoisredsox]

16 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I have castigated Breslow as much as anyone, but Hicks is the cost of sending Devers and his huge salary elsewhere.  

Agree.  Also, the Sox cost for Hicks is roughly $27-28M total for 2 1/2 seasons.  That’s still less than 1 year of Devers contract. 
 

The big question is what did JH do with the “savings”, and that’s something none of us can answer with any degree of certainty.

[dgalehouse]

3 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

No, but it adds to their latest history as to how they treat their homegrown stars.

And the team in no way, shape or form got better with this trade.

If I'm a free agent chasing a title then I certainly wouldn't have beantowne near the top of my list.

Probably won't have The Bronx at the top of the list either after watching that pathetic performance in Fenway over the weekend.

[harmony]

The Red Sox traded Rafael Devers after Devers had posted 24.9 bWAR in 1,059 games with the Sox.

The Red Sox traded Mookie Betts after Betts had posted 42.5 bWAR in 794 games with the Sox.

The Red Sox traded Nomar Garciaparra after Garciaparra had posted 41.3 bWAR in 966 games with the Sox.

Devers is a good but not great player who has never finished in the Top 10 in American League MVP voting since he entered the league in 2017.

The Red Sox probably were offered far better returns in trade if the Sox would pay down some of the $235 million remaining on the Devers contract. If word was out that the Sox were unwilling to eat some of the contract, the market for Devers was significantly limited.

Baseball Trade Values deemed the Devers trade a decided overpay by the San Francisco Giants:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/190454

 

[dgalehouse]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

I have castigated Breslow as much as anyone, but Hicks is the cost of sending Devers and his huge salary else

Of course, Hicks is not fair compensation for Devers. That was just for a little salary relief for S.F.   However , Hicks could become an asset for the Sox' bullpen. 

[moonslav59]

No doubt, we needed and still need a bat like Devers in our line-up, and the whole "will he earn is his keep?" argument has merit.

There is a limit. Is his bat worth $40M a year?  $50M? Look what Vladdy just got.

That being said, almost any value rating service had the Devers contract as being under water. In a vacuum, one could say, getting anything plus back makes it a good trade, if you view it just in this light. I don't see it this way, but there is some logic in including the financial aspect of the trade in the final grade.

Two things need to happen to turn this trade into a break even or plus:

1) We need to spend the money saved.

2) We need to spend the money much more wisely than we have in recent years.

There is no evidence to think we can or will do even one of the above things, so I get the anger and angst shown by many, here. I'm tired of hoping for even #1 and being continually disappointed, until this past winter. #2 has been a constant issue with us and almost all of our biggest signings have been failures or gross failure.

[king koji]

The fact that the Olde Town Team bid in range of SEVEN HUNDRED MILLION for Juan Soto is a clear indicator of Ownerships willingness to spend.

Anything said to the contrary is hogwash..

[king koji]

Nobody special. Just David Ortiz chiming in on Devers' attitude.....

 

https://x.com/BostonStrong_34/status/1934730611513786601?t=IqacWylycHLYo6kIxPJ_kg&s=19

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, king koji said:

The fact that the Olde Town Team bid in range of SEVEN HUNDRED MILLION for Juan Soto is a clear indicator of Ownerships willingness to spend.

Anything said to the contrary is hogwash..

i don't think they bid anywhere near that.

[king koji]

Just now, Duran Is The Man said:

i don't think they bid anywhere near that.

Okay. Jeff Passan and Buster Olney said they did. But I think im gonna go with Duran Is The Man on this one....