Article: Has Walker Buehler Turned the Corner?

[Alex Mayes]

After a rough start to the 2025 season, Walker Buehler finally appears to be holding his own on the mound. Can we expect more of this version of him throughout the season?

There was some concern about Walker Buehler after his first couple of starts to the season. Through both of those starts, he carried an ERA north of eight and only struck out seven batters. Fans were starting to wonder if the Buehler everyone saw close out the World series was an outlier, and if the Red Sox had hitched their cart to a pitcher that couldn’t fully bounce back from major elbow surgery. 

Then, in his third start of the season, things seemed to click. Ever since, Buehler has seen an uptick in nearly every category that matters. His strikeouts increased from three in his first outing to nine against the White Sox on April 21 (he only notched three against the contact-oriented Guardians but still delivered a quality start). His strikeout percentage also rose from 14.3% to 33.3%. His batting average against was an abysmal .368 through two games; in the three starts after, it sat at an incredible .167.

The biggest thing though is that his hard hit percentage has dropped by over 20 points, from 43.8% to 20%, since his first start. His pitch mix finally seems to be working well, and opposing hitters are off balance against whatever he throws. Another thing of note is that his speeds are down on all of his pitches, across the board. While typically that spells disaster for starters, it seems to be working for Buehler, as he has done a better job of controlling the strike zone with his (relatively) softer stuff.

The thing that stands out the most though is that Buehler has lowered his arm slot to the lowest point it has been in his career to 42 degrees. This means a couple of things that are worth watching going forward. First, it relieves some of the stress on his surgically repaired elbow, allowing him to pitch without worrying about re-injury as much. Second, it allows his off-speed pitches to play further off of his fastball. His sweeper now has more glove side movement — 2.6 inches more to be exact — and right-handed hitters are flailing at it or guessing between that offering and his well-known knuckle curve. 

What we’re seeing right now with Walker Buehler is a pitcher who seems to have finally figured out what works best for him on the mound and how to utilize his extensive pitch mix to his advantage. He has lowered his arm slot and dropped some velocity from his arsenal, but with that, his pitches are moving more and he’s able to live in the chase zone more than over the heart of the plate, driving his groundball and strikeout rates up in the process. Buehler seems to have turned the corner and has stepped into his role as the number two starter of the Boston Red Sox with success. If he keeps this trajectory up, his contract will look like one of the best deals of the offseason... and could warrant some serious contract extension discussions.

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[moonslav59]

It could be just wishful thinking, but I think he will be fine.

I think his playoff performance proved he was "over the injury," so now, it's just about finding and remaining in a groove.

[Nick]

I like Buehler's attitude. He gets the ball and throws. I see him as a confident pitcher, always attacking. Hey, if money's not objective, why not go 4 years and $80M. He turns 31 in July.

Starters and age as of 9/30/25

1 G. Crochet (26) under team control through 2031

2 B. Bello (26) under team control through 2029 plus team option for 2030

3 K Crawford (29) under team control through 2028

4 T Houck (29) under team control through 2027 (no reason to extend him)

5 H Dobbins (26) under team control at least through 2030 

6 R Fitts (25) under team control at least through 2030

7 P Sandoval (28 ) under team control through 2026 (may return late 2025)

Buehler is not that much older than Tanner Houck. If we extend him, we may be able to sit tight this winter.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Nick said:

I like Buehler's attitude. He gets the ball and throws. I see him as a confident pitcher, always attacking. Hey, if money's not objective, why not go 4 years and $80M. He turns 31 in July.

Starters and age as of 9/30/25

1 G. Crochet (26) under team control through 2031

2 B. Bello (26) under team control through 2029 plus team option for 2030

3 K Crawford (29) under team control through 2028

4 T Houck (29) under team control through 2027 (no reason to extend him)

5 H Dobbins (26) under team control at least through 2030 

6 R Fitts (25) under team control at least through 2030

7 P Sandoval (28 ) under team control through 2026 (may return late 2025)

Buehler is not that much older than Tanner Houck. If we extend him, we may be able to sit tight this winter.

Good stuff.

Not sure if Criswell & Murphy are worth adding (controlled to '29, I think) Newcomb has one arb left.

We also have Giolito through this year with a $14M option for '26.

There is a mutual option for Buehler after this season.

[Hitch]

May as well wait it out. If he pitches well he gets hit with the QO which will depress his market somewhat and he'd likely be open to it anyway. 

Extending him to 4 at 80 would be very risky at this point in time. No rush.

[Hugh2]

If Walker Buehler pitches good this year, and I say good not great because I don't think he can pitch great, I think he gets the Nick Pivetta treatment.  Throw him the Q.O. if he accepts it, then great, if not you hope a team out there nets you a draft pick.  And I like Buehler. 

[Bellhorn04]

In his last 4 starts he's pitched 24.1 innings with a .589 OPSa.  He's pretty damn good when he's healthy.

[Hugh2]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

In his last 4 starts he's pitched 24.1 innings with a .589 OPSa.  He's pretty damn good when he's healthy.

I don't expect Buehler to pitch like a 1 or 2 this year, if he does....amazing. 

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't expect Buehler to pitch like a 1 or 2 this year, if he does....amazing. 

IF healthy I think he can absolutely pitch like a #2.

[mvp 78]

He's not walking hitters and not giving up hard contact. I think we were worried that he could look more backend-ish, but I'm happy even if he is just another middle rotation guy.

He throws the entire kitchen sink while he's out there, but might want to skip the cutter going forward or at least limit its use as it's getting hit around more than the other pitches. Kinda weird since it was his only good pitch last season.