Has Walker Buehler Turned the Corner?

There was some concern about Walker Buehler after his first couple of starts to the season. Through both of those starts, he carried an ERA north of eight and only struck out seven batters. Fans were starting to wonder if the Buehler everyone saw close out the World series was an outlier, and if the Red Sox had hitched their cart to a pitcher that couldn’t fully bounce back from major elbow surgery. 

Then, in his third start of the season, things seemed to click. Ever since, Buehler has seen an uptick in nearly every category that matters. His strikeouts increased from three in his first outing to nine against the White Sox on April 21 (he only notched three against the contact-oriented Guardians but still delivered a quality start). His strikeout percentage also rose from 14.3% to 33.3%. His batting average against was an abysmal .368 through two games; in the three starts after, it sat at an incredible .167.

The biggest thing though is that his hard hit percentage has dropped by over 20 points, from 43.8% to 20%, since his first start. His pitch mix finally seems to be working well, and opposing hitters are off balance against whatever he throws. Another thing of note is that his speeds are down on all of his pitches, across the board. While typically that spells disaster for starters, it seems to be working for Buehler, as he has done a better job of controlling the strike zone with his (relatively) softer stuff.

The thing that stands out the most though is that Buehler has lowered his arm slot to the lowest point it has been in his career to 42 degrees. This means a couple of things that are worth watching going forward. First, it relieves some of the stress on his surgically repaired elbow, allowing him to pitch without worrying about re-injury as much. Second, it allows his off-speed pitches to play further off of his fastball. His sweeper now has more glove side movement — 2.6 inches more to be exact — and right-handed hitters are flailing at it or guessing between that offering and his well-known knuckle curve. 

What we’re seeing right now with Walker Buehler is a pitcher who seems to have finally figured out what works best for him on the mound and how to utilize his extensive pitch mix to his advantage. He has lowered his arm slot and dropped some velocity from his arsenal, but with that, his pitches are moving more and he’s able to live in the chase zone more than over the heart of the plate, driving his groundball and strikeout rates up in the process. Buehler seems to have turned the corner and has stepped into his role as the number two starter of the Boston Red Sox with success. If he keeps this trajectory up, his contract will look like one of the best deals of the offseason... and could warrant some serious contract extension discussions.