What's up with Ceddanne?

[Hugh2]

Rafaela is on pace for about a 2.5 Fwar season, mostly tied to his defense but that alone makes him a valuable player.

I don't think he's ever going to be an offensive stud, but I've always hoped he could take enough steps forward to not be a complete black hole in the lineup and you feel fine about him hitting 8th 9th. 

It's early, the sample size is small, but the K% is down from 26.4 to 18.9% the BB rate is up to 6.8% he's actually making a little bit more contact this year, but his BABIP is lower around .250% but overall he's still chasing way way way too much. 

I think there's enough there, underlying to see a guy who can take steps forward and be a .650-.700 OPS guy, but the approach is not there, and there's not enough power to overcome the approach to ever be much more than that. 

I really really really like Rafaela a lot, but I never understood the extension.  Guys with his profile just aren't well paid in arbitration, and his skill set probably does not age well once he losses a step.  

[mvp 78]

He has to take steps forward to be a 650 guy now? He was 664 last season! If he's not at 700, it doesn't work for me. 

[mvp 78]

JBJ could be a 2.5-3 fWAR guy when he was around 725 OPS. I think that really needs to be the goal here. We complained endlessly about JBJ's offense, but now we're giving a free pass to Rafaela who is significantly WORSE? Rafaela's '25 offensive output is what JBJ did for the Sox in '22 and nobody on here is looking back at that season fondly. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Right now the top of the order needs to get better. Raffy only has an RBI in 1 game in his last 13, and Duran has an OBP of 296. Yes I know he has hit the ball hard at times, but that doesn’t show up on the most important scoreboard.

No doubt, the top of the order plus Casas need to improve, but that is not a problem easily fixed or improved, unless you are advocating a significant line-up juggling or "musical chairs."

The main issue, at the top, has been Duran. Our 1 slot has a .304 OBP. Our 2 slot has not been himself, but the slot does have a .346 OBP. The 3 slot has done very well (.367 OBP and .484 SLG.)

The 4 and 5 slots have come up short (.715 OPS, combined.)

The 8 and 9 slots are black holes that I guess some are fine with, due to their D. I'm fine with one, but to me, two becomes an issue that should be improved, if possible, and without destroying the defense. While Rafaela is better than Anthony on defense, when Anthony is healthy, his D is fine.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He has to take steps forward to be a 650 guy now? He was 664 last season! If he's not at 700, it doesn't work for me. 

I agree. 

200 games and 724 PAs, so far. How much longer should he get?

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree. 

200 games and 724 PAs, so far. How much longer should he get?

To me, 700 is the floor. You can't carry a no hit catcher and a no hit CFer and expect to be more than a .500 win team. You see it in the offensive output early on here. Punting at two positions puts them at a tight spot if any other player is struggling. 

We talked about trading JBJ every season even though he was the greatest CFer of all time according to some posters. I don't get why Ceddanne gets a pass. Is it just because he's young and people think he's going to turn into a hitter he's not? 

[drewski6]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree. 

200 games and 724 PAs, so far. How much longer should he get?

Cedanne himself isnt the only variable in how long Cedanne sticks around for.

For example, how is Duran doing defensively and are you comfy right now with him in CF? What if that changes (you either become confident in Duran playing CF when you arent or flip it) ....point is , it impacts Cedannes value to the team.

Cedanne isnt in a vacuum 

(apologies if this comes across as obvious, not my intent to patronize)

[drewski6]

Im willing to give Cedanne more time.  Some of the reasons are: Im feeling that Duran's defensive improvements last year may not stick and he may revert back into a LF as opposed to someone playing LF because you have a superior defensive CF in CF.  Another reason is Anthonys shoulder.

Things that have nothing to do with Cedanne himself.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

To me, 700 is the floor. You can't carry a no hit catcher and a no hit CFer and expect to be more than a .500 win team. You see it in the offensive output early on here. Punting at two positions puts them at a tight spot if any other player is struggling. 

We talked about trading JBJ every season even though he was the greatest CFer of all time according to some posters. I don't get why Ceddanne gets a pass. Is it just because he's young and people think he's going to turn into a hitter he's not? 

What makes it look worse with RAF Man, and the C not hitting much is then getting to the top of the order, and Duran, and Raffy aren’t doing that much either. Throw is Casas who’s pretty much non existent, and that’s a lot to over come. Abreu hasn’t been lighting it up since he moved into the cleanup spot either. If Duran, Raffy, and Casas start hitting the team can survive with the rest.

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Cedanne himself isnt the only variable in how long Cedanne sticks around for.

For example, how is Duran doing defensively and are you comfy right now with him in CF? What if that changes (you either become confident in Duran playing CF when you arent or flip it) ....point is , it impacts Cedannes value to the team.

Cedanne isnt in a vacuum 

(apologies if this comes across as obvious, not my intent to patronize)

Duran can be an above average CFer and a not so great LFer. Maybe he just doesn't read the ball off the bat very well in LF. He also uses his speed to run down balls, which he can't do in Fenway's LF. If you look at the Statcast numbers, Duran doesn't get a good jump on the ball, unlike Rafaela. Rafaela has a '25 MLB ranking in OFer OAA where Duran was in '24. I'm not entirely convinced there would be a substantial dropoff if Duran slid back to CF.

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, Old Red said:

What makes it look worse with RAF Man, and the C not hitting much is then getting to the top of the order, and Duran, and Raffy aren’t doing that much either. Throw is Casas who’s pretty much non existent, and that’s a lot to over come. Abreu hasn’t been lighting it up since he moved into the cleanup spot either. If Duran, Raffy, and Casas start hitting the team can survive with the rest.

Last year, they had a CFer with a 8 fWAR ceiling (Duran). Why settle for a CFer with a 2 fWAR ceiling (Rafaela)? 

[Old Red]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Last year, they had a CFer with a 8 fWAR ceiling (Duran). Why settle for a CFer with a 2 fWAR ceiling (Rafaela)? 

#1 Duran only played CF, because RAF Man started 70 games at SS. Duran so far hasn’t been the same player either. I get it that you are not a big RAF Man fan, or the contract, and you have to have Anthony up in Boston. I get all that, but RAF Man is not going to make, or break the Red Sox season.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

#1 Duran only played CF, because RAF Man started 70 games at SS. Duran so far hasn’t been the same player either. I get it that you are not a big RAF Man fan, or the contract, and you have to have Anthony up in Boston. I get all that, but RAF Man is not going to make, or break the Red Sox season.

Rafaela is definitely not going to make the season. That is true.

An 8 fWAR Duran could make the season! Roman Anthony in BOS could make the season! 

If Rafaela isn't good enough to sway the season, why hold onto him like a fabergé egg? 

[drewski6]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran can be an above average CFer and a not so great LFer. Maybe he just doesn't read the ball off the bat very well in LF. He also uses his speed to run down balls, which he can't do in Fenway's LF. If you look at the Statcast numbers, Duran doesn't get a good jump on the ball, unlike Rafaela. Rafaela has a '25 MLB ranking in OFer OAA where Duran was in '24. I'm not entirely convinced there would be a substantial dropoff if Duran slid back to CF.

Interesting

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Cedanne himself isnt the only variable in how long Cedanne sticks around for.

For example, how is Duran doing defensively and are you comfy right now with him in CF? What if that changes (you either become confident in Duran playing CF when you arent or flip it) ....point is , it impacts Cedannes value to the team.

Cedanne isnt in a vacuum 

(apologies if this comes across as obvious, not my intent to patronize)

I'm fine with Duran in CF and Anthony in LF.

vs LHPs, I'd like to see Rafaela in CF, Anthony in RF and Duran in LF, but there is pushback to musical chair defense.

I recognize the drop off on D, but it may not be as great as many think it might be.

The uptick in O looks larger, to me. Just my opinion.

No sense of patronizing to me. I respect your opinion.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm fine with Duran in CF and Anthony in LF.

vs LHPs, I'd like to see Rafaela in CF, Anthony in RF and Duran in LF, but there is pushback to musical chair defense.

I recognize the drop off on D, but it may not be as great as many think it might be.

The uptick in O looks larger, to me. Just my opinion.

No sense of patronizing to me. I respect your opinion.

I would just put Rafaela in RF against LHP in that scenario. 

[sk7326]

 

On 4/18/2025 at 5:11 PM, Cameron Tran said:

After a solid rookie season in which he finished top 10 among rookies in hits, doubles, RBI and HR, Ceddanne Rafaela has been off to a horrid start at the plate in 2025. Following a strong spring in which he showed much improved plate discipline, Ceddanne is off to a .211/.274/.246 start and has yet to hit a home run. Despite being in the 96th percentile for baserunning runs and the 98th in fielding runs, fans are calling for a change with top prospect Roman Anthony off to a great start in AAA. So what's gone wrong with the player Breslow and Co. trusted enough to hand out an 8 year contract too?

The biggest issue with Ceddanne so far is his batted ball data, where his GB% is 10% above league average, resulting in over half his batted balls being groundballs. This coincides with Ceddanne's inability to lower his chase rate. Despite a respectable walk rate, Ceddanne still sits in the 1st percentile in terms of chase rate and his outside zone swing% is 20% above league average, swinging at over half of the pitches he sees outside the zone. 20% of the pitches he sees are low and out, and Ceddanne has chased that low outside pitch 42% of the time. Those 21 swings have resulted in 1 hard hit ball, 8 batted balls, an average exit velo of 77, an average launch angle of 8, and a 63% GB rate. Even then, Ceddanne has gotten lucky. Of those 8 batted balls, 4 have them have resulted in hits despite a .230 xBA on those batted balls. Ceddanne had the same problem last year, seeing a pitch in that area 24% of the time, chasing it 46% of the time, and whiffing 49% of the time. 

Once again, the chase rate is what is holding Ceddanne back. He has dropped his K% to below league average and his walk rate has gone up 4%, usually a good sign for a young hitter. His hard hit% is up, his barrel% is around the same, but all that is mitigated by his inability to lay off the junk. The biggest worry is that most of these swings are coming early in the count. In 2 strike counts, he is hitting .257/.316/.314. Not great, but not horrible either. To contrast, he's hitting .182/.357/.182 when ahead in the count. 

It's not hard to see a silver lining to this horrid start at the plate, as Ceddanne once again looks like a platinum glove caliber defender at a premium position. But with Roman Anthony having his second 2 HR game of the season a few nights ago, it's hard to justify keeping his bat in the lineup. Ceddanne would be an expensive utility guy, but it appears that that might be his ceiling. 

1. SSS - not saying the OP is wrong, but we are still in tiny sample land.

2. After a slow start, he is up to 4th in the AL in outs above average in CF - so at least the defense has lived up to the promise.  So the "defend well enough to support a meager OBP" case is at least partially true.

3. But we need more - a sub .280 OBP ain't going to cut it.  

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela is definitely not going to make the season. That is true.

An 8 fWAR Duran could make the season! Roman Anthony in BOS could make the season! 

If Rafaela isn't good enough to sway the season, why hold onto him like a fabergé egg? 

I guess only Brez, and Cora can answer that, and why Brez gave the RAF Man the contract he did.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I would just put Rafaela in RF against LHP in that scenario. 

I'd be fine with that idea, as my suggestion would be full blown "musical chairs."

We all know Cora loves scheduling days off, so Rafaela could play SS, 2B and 3B on those days off.

He could PR (as DHam would be demoted to make room for Anthony) and provide late inning defensive replacement often enough. 

Rafaela will still have ample playing time to earn back a FT role.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela is definitely not going to make the season. That is true.

An 8 fWAR Duran could make the season! Roman Anthony in BOS could make the season! 

If Rafaela isn't good enough to sway the season, why hold onto him like a fabergé egg? 

His one point in his favor is the +.4 fWAR, which is 5th best on the Sox everyday player list. That projects to an fWAR of over 3.0. That is a pretty high bar set for Anthony.

That being said, I think we can play Anthony near enough to FT and still allow Duran, Abreu and Rafaela to get enough playing time to be impact players (or not.)

It's Refsnyder that would likely lose almost all playing time, unless he play RF vs RHPs- not Rafaela, as I suggested.

Maybe trade Refsnyder. We will already have LH'd DH in AAA (Yoshida) and Ref has no remaining options.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I guess only Brez, and Cora can answer that, and why Brez gave the RAF Man the contract he did.

He's making $1M, this year and has a .4 fWAR and .6 bWAR. So far, so good with the contract.

RAF makes $2M, next year: that should be oksay.

Maybe, in 2027, when he makes $3.5M, it might be a little waste of money, if he's still here and playing just a strict utility role. 

The real issue might begin in 2028, and that assumes he has not improved beyond utility. ($5.5M)

2029: $7.5M (with salary inflation, maybe this is not all that bad.)

2030: $10.5M and 2031 at $13M look pretty bad, as of now. There is also a $4M buyout on the $16M club option for 2032, making that last year, essentially and possibly a $17M salary.

I'm not worried about his deal. It's not like the Price, Yoshi or Story deals.

 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's making $1M, this year and has a .4 fWAR and .6 bWAR. So far, so good with the contract.

RAF makes $2M, next year: that should be oksay.

Maybe, in 2027, when he makes $3.5M, it might be a little waste of money, if he's still here and playing just a strict utility role. 

The real issue might begin in 2028, and that assumes he has not improved beyond utility. ($5.5M)

2029: $7.5M (with salary inflation, maybe this is not all that bad.)

2030: $10.5M and 2031 at $13M look pretty bad, as of now. There is also a $4M buyout on the $16M club option for 2032, making that last year, essentially and possibly a $17M salary.

I'm not worried about his deal. It's not like the Price, Yoshi or Story deals.

 

I agree, but MVP is the one who’s had a problem with it since day 1.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Interesting

Defensive metrics are famous for roasting Fenway's LF'ers, but here are the metrics for 2024-2025:

Duran

LF: +3 DRS/ +1 OAA (798 innings)

CF: +17 DRS/ +6 OAA (825 innings) Note: Rafaela is +16/+8 in 802 innings.

There is nothing to indicate Duran is not a plus defender in CF. (He was before 2024.)

[Cameron Tran]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's making $1M, this year and has a .4 fWAR and .6 bWAR. So far, so good with the contract.

RAF makes $2M, next year: that should be oksay.

Maybe, in 2027, when he makes $3.5M, it might be a little waste of money, if he's still here and playing just a strict utility role. 

The real issue might begin in 2028, and that assumes he has not improved beyond utility. ($5.5M)

2029: $7.5M (with salary inflation, maybe this is not all that bad.)

2030: $10.5M and 2031 at $13M look pretty bad, as of now. There is also a $4M buyout on the $16M club option for 2032, making that last year, essentially and possibly a $17M salary.

I'm not worried about his deal. It's not like the Price, Yoshi or Story deals.

 

im confident he'll get atleast a little bit better with experience. Most of his batted ball data (minus all the groundballs) is strong. Plate discipline is something that comes with time and he can't be this bad forever. Still don't think his ceiling is anything higher than like fringe all-star, maybe like benintendi level. If he can become our new Brock Holt for the rest of the contract id consider that a win.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I agree, but MVP is the one who’s had a problem with it since day 1.

Yes. I have had discussions with him over the deal, and it seems his main issue was about why the hurry? (Same with Bello.)

[Cameron Tran]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Defensive metrics are famous for roasting Fenway's LF'ers, but here are the metrics for 2024-2025:

Duran

LF: +3 DRS/ +1 OAA (798 innings)

CF: +17 DRS/ +6 OAA (825 innings) Note: Rafaela is +16/+8 in 802 innings.

There is nothing to indicate Duran is not a plus defender in CF. (He was before 2024.)

The biggest thing I've seen with Duran are on some of the flyballs down the left field line into the shade when its sunny (think that drop against Baltimore in the home opener last year). don't know if sticking Anthony out there will really fix much and not sure how Duran's arm will play in center.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Cameron Tran said:

im confident he'll get atleast a little bit better with experience. Most of his batted ball data (minus all the groundballs) is strong. Plate discipline is something that comes with time and he can't be this bad forever. Still don't think his ceiling is anything higher than like fringe all-star, maybe like benintendi level. If he can become our new Brock Holt for the rest of the contract id consider that a win.

I hope people don't think I dislike Rafaela, because I like Anthony better.

I love great up-the-middle defense. I also think Rafaela can improve his offense. I'm just not sure if he can reach the .700 to .725 range for a full season. 

I think he can get enough playing time with an Anthony call-up to still show he can hit .700+. He's had 700+ PAs, already. That's more than Dalbec had, before he lost his job, but of course Dalbec was a horrible defender. Casas had about 150 more PAs, than Rafaela, before this year.

With no Sox OF'er, other than Refsnyder losing team control for 3 more years, it seems like a squeeze is present, but since RAF can play a decent 2B and OK SS & 3B, he should have a good shot at earning back a FT job.

[Cameron Tran]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. I have had discussions with him over the deal, and it seems his main issue was about why the hurry? (Same with Bello.)

Bloom definetly jumped the gun with Bello. Hope he can develop into a high-end #3 but definitely not worth the 16-22M we'll be paying him

 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

The biggest thing I've seen with Duran are on some of the flyballs down the left field line into the shade when its sunny (think that drop against Baltimore in the home opener last year). don't know if sticking Anthony out there will really fix much and not sure how Duran's arm will play in center.

Duran has played CF more than LF, so far. He does not have a strong arm, especially from the triangle, but fangraphs has these arm scores for CF only:

+3.0 Rafaela

+1.8 Duran

I don't think the drop off on defense in CF as as big as many seem to think it would or might be.

The possibility of huge gains on offense with Anthony over Rafaela is just too high for me to say no to.

[Cameron Tran]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I hope people don't think I dislike Rafaela, because I like Anthony better.

I love great up-the-middle defense. I also think Rafaela can improve his offense. I'm just not sure if he can reach the .700 to .725 range for a full season. 

I think he can get enough playing time with an Anthony call-up to still show he can hit .700+. He's had 700+ PAs, already. That's more than Dalbec had, before he lost his job, but of course Dalbec was a horrible defender. Casas had about 150 more PAs, than Rafaela, before this year.

With no Sox OF'er, other than Refsnyder losing team control for 3 more years, it seems like a squeeze is present, but since RAF can play a decent 2B and OK SS & 3B, he should have a good shot at earning back a FT job.

I agree. There should be enough space for Rafaela to still get a solid amount of PAs while platooning against LHP and filling in at SS and 2B when needed. Love the glove as a late-inning defensive replacement. My question for you is do you trust WIlyer as an everyday player? Or should it be Duran, Rafaela and Anthony against LHPs? Don't love the idea of Anthony bouncing between LF and RF his rookie season, but he's been doing it all throughout the minors