A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Larry Cook]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

May’s turn, right?

I think I may is Saturday now. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

May’s turn, right?

Yes. I doubt the bring anyone up just to give May another day of rest.

[Larry Cook]

Tolle pitching for us tomorrow night against skenes I think 

[moonslav59]

Who gets demoted?

Hicks is out of options. Matz and may are, too.

I think Bernardino is the only one, but we need him.

How about Hicks to the phantom IL. (Kick him in the leg.)

[moonslav59]

Even with Houck, Crawford, Dobbins, Sandoval, Mayer, Casas, Hendriks, Guerrero & Wink on the 60 and Abreu, Fitts and Lowe off the current roster, we still have a hell of a 26 and 40 man roster going.

[Larry Cook]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Who gets demoted?

Hicks is out of options. Matz and may are, too.

I think Bernardino is the only one, but we need him.

How about Hicks to the phantom IL. (Kick him in the leg.)

Somebody is visiting the injured list ???

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Somebody is visiting the injured list ???

Other than Bernardino going to AAA, and he is needed too much for that, it's an IL stint until SEPT call-ups or DFA Buehler or Hicks.

[Larry Cook]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Other than Bernardino going to AAA, and he is needed too much for that, it's an IL stint until SEPT call-ups or DFA Buehler or Hicks.

DFA buelher would be bres-slow’s first move if buehler is a locker room cancer 

[moonslav59]

Chapman has pitched no hit ball over his last 12 IP.

Last 31 PAs:

0-30 with 1BB.

.032 OBP

.000 SLG

.032 OPSA

Legendary stuff here.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

DFA buelher would be bres-slow’s first move if buehler is a locker room cancer 

Hicks has more control years, so to me it's Buehler and then Wilson, second.

[moonslav59]

Gotta like being ahead of both SEA (+2.5) & HOU (+0.5.) Since one will win the division and the other is fighting for the WC or a better ranking in the WC set-up.

I'd like to be more than +0.5 on HOU and NYY, but it's better than being -0.5.

We are 5.5 up on KCR and 7 or more on CLE & TEX.

I've been thinking optimistically, lately and am eyeing DET (-3.0 GB) and TOR (-3.5 GB.) We're even closer to passing LAD, PHI, CHC & SDP than any of would have imagined, last winter or even a couple weeks ago.

-0.5 SDP

-1.5 Cubs

-2.5 to Betts' LAD & DD & Schwarber's PHI

GO SOX!!!!

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This might be better on an Unrealistic thread: the Red Sox just went 7-1 on a road trip to New York and Baltimore.

Most of us were hoping to go 4-4 and just stay in the race. Some said they'd be happy with 3-5. My kid predicted 2-6 or 1-8.

Let's not forget how just a week ago, the season was teetering, coming off a three-game skid that began with the Isaiah Campbell Game (when he didn't pitch), and then two losses at home to the O's when the Sox went 1-for-789 with runners in scoring position.

Praise the pitching staff, and Trevor Story, and Cora for using the right line-ups and match-ups. 

Big hits by many, including Romy and Ref, Ceddanne and Jarren, Connor and Carlos, Hammy and Nate, and Justin Sin (his first). And then there was this guy:

11-for-32 = .344, 8 runs, 6 RBI, 1 double, 3 home runs, 3 bbs, and 14 Ks. Imagine what will happen when Anthony starts making better contact?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong: taking out the 14 Ks... when he made contact, Anthony went 11-for-18 on the road trip... for a .611 BABIP.

[moonslav59]

Between Anthony and the 5 pitcher core of Crochet, Bell, Gio, Chapman & Whitlock, our team is looking pretty damn good!

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Between Anthony and the 5 pitcher core of Crochet, Bell, Gio, Chapman & Whitlock, our team is looking pretty damn good!

If rafeala breaks out of his slump, then we be really fun to watch 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

If rafeala breaks out of his slump, then we be really fun to watch 

He might have started to with that big dinger.

[Larry Cook]

One of the best reporters said abreau could be activated in early September!!!  
 

another plus for us!! 

[Kimmi]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Chapman has pitched no hit ball over his last 12 IP.

Last 31 PAs:

0-30 with 1BB.

.032 OBP

.000 SLG

.032 OPSA

Legendary stuff here.

I really wasn't thrilled about the Chapman signing, but I can't argue with how good he's been.  Lights out and very little 9th inning drama.

[Kimmi]

We were a little lucky to sweep the Baltimore series, but I'm not complaining.  We deserve some good breaks finally going our way.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

I really wasn't thrilled about the Chapman signing, but I can't argue with how good he's been.  Lights out and very little 9th inning drama.

I was extremely vocal about my disgust over how little we invested in our pen. Remember, we just lost 2 pretty big pen contracts in Jansen & Martin.

I felt like the only hope was that our SP'er depth could be used from the pen. That really hasn't happened.

As great as Chapman and Whitlock have been, it's a bit surprising to see that the rest of the pen has a better ERA that our SP'ers as a whole.

[oldtimer]

It wasn't a shock to see us lose to one of the best pitchers in baseball and there were good signs with Tolle and Slaten doing well. 

It's the end of August, and after a road trip and the daily grind of the dog days. I wouldn't be surprised if some of our players, particularly the older like Bregman and Story are dragging. Bregman for instance is sporting a 182 avg with 4 hits, 2 RBIs and 1 run scored in the last 7 days. There wasn't  a lot to work with for Cora last night, with Abreu still out and Lowe on paternity leave and even Password sent down. I didn't like Cora's options for pinch hitting late. Why we had two weak hitting 2nd basemen on the roster for the game eludes me. 

At any rate, things are soon returning to a norm with assets getting back and opponents pitching being more favorable. I doubt if our regulars will go into prolonged slumps. Things are looking bright.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Perspective on the Boston offense: some think it's good, some think it sucks... stats can show both. The Red Sox are second in the AL in runs per game, runs scored, and hits -- but they also have a team batting average of .252. 

That means fans watch Sox batters make outs an average of 3-out-every-4 at bats, all season long. A playoff-bound club, where hitters fail 75% of the time. The league average is even worse: .245.

Compared to all Sox pennant winners since 1967, the 2025 version has the lowest team batting average -- including the Impossible Dreamers who led the AL at .255 in a decade when the mound was 50% higher than today.

Basically, we're rooting futilely, witnessing a sport of failure. There are only five qualified batters in the majors hitting .300 or higher, including only one in the National League -- Freddie Freeman, who is exactly at .300. 

This could be the first year in MLB history where someone with an average in the .290s is crowned as the batting champion.

[Bellhorn04]

57 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Basically, we're rooting futilely, witnessing a sport of failure.

Well, not if you're rooting for the pitchers.

 

[Larry Cook]

The offense will get hot again. Time for Bregman to be a leader!!  

[notin]

On 8/27/2025 at 11:23 AM, mvp 78 said:

Sox fan erasure??? I would never. 

You clearly never met those 4 people…

[notin]

On 8/27/2025 at 11:16 AM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Can't you just round it off?

35,990

36,000?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

36,000?

too obvious... plus, at an event where (let's just say) a few fans get primed at pregame bars and never make it to their seats, shouldn't guys like us who don't work for Kennedy round down?

[Bellhorn04]

22 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

The offense will get hot again. Time for Bregman to be a leader!!  

It's also about time to run into a crappy starting pitcher. 😄

[Larry Cook]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's also about time to run into a crappy starting pitcher. 😄

Not many crappy pitchers in the playoffs!!  Good they see as many good pitchers now as possible 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Perspective on the Boston offense: some think it's good, some think it sucks... stats can show both. The Red Sox are second in the AL in runs per game, runs scored, and hits -- but they also have a team batting average of .252. 

That means fans watch Sox batters make outs an average of 3-out-every-4 at bats, all season long. A playoff-bound club, where hitters fail 75% of the time. The league average is even worse: .245.

Compared to all Sox pennant winners since 1967, the 2025 version has the lowest team batting average -- including the Impossible Dreamers who led the AL at .255 in a decade when the mound was 50% higher than today.

Basically, we're rooting futilely, witnessing a sport of failure. There are only five qualified batters in the majors hitting .300 or higher, including only one in the National League -- Freddie Freeman, who is exactly at .300. 

This could be the first year in MLB history where someone with an average in the .290s is crowned as the batting champion.

To some extent, the Sox offense always has to be viewed with the Fenway Park influence factored in. It's not Colorado, but the Sox Home and Away splits are always wide apart.

Context is always needed.

MLB Avg .246, OBP .316 and SLG .405

Sox: .252, .323, .425

However:

Sox on the road: .244, .315, .415 (pretty damn close to average)

Home: .261/.332/.436

What's interesting is that the differential by the opponents is not as wide:

Opponents vs Sox pitchers:

Fenway: .246/.320/.365

Away: .240/.312/.384 (actually a higher away OPS)