A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

It's amazing how much the odds drop off from the 6 slot to the 7th in both leagues.

So much for keeping more teams in it for longer into the season.

There is a sharp cut off after "the haves" top 12 in MLB. While there is only a 3.5 GB gap between the NYM and CIN, the odds differential is massive. Same with BOS/SEA vs KCR.

Perhaps the biggest surprises in the MLB standings is ATL, BAL & MIN being passed by ATH, MIA & LAA, but there is still time for them to flip places.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's amazing how much the odds drop off from the 6 slot to the 7th in both leagues.

So much for keeping more teams in it for longer into the season.

A lot of that is just randomness doing its thing.   

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's amazing how much the odds drop off from the 6 slot to the 7th in both leagues.

So much for keeping more teams in it for longer into the season.

There is a sharp cut off after "the haves" top 12 in MLB. While there is only a 3.5 GB gap between the NYM and CIN, the odds differential is massive. Same with BOS/SEA vs KCR.

Perhaps the biggest surprises in the MLB standings is ATL, BAL & MIN being passed by ATH, MIA & LAA, but there is still time for them to flip places.

Seems like the teams behind the 3rd WC spot are further out than they have been in the past few years. 

CLE just went 1-9.

TEX have gone 6-12 to fall under .500. 

KC is still hovering around .500 and are the closest competitor to the WC race in the AL. Good pitching, but really bad on the other side of the ball. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Seems like the teams behind the 3rd WC spot are further out than they have been in the past few years. 

CLE just went 1-9.

TEX have gone 6-12 to fall under .500. 

KC is still hovering around .500 and are the closest competitor to the WC race in the AL. Good pitching, but really bad on the other side of the ball. 

Yes, the last few weeks have put some distance in definition into the WC slot probabilities.

[Maxbialystock]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, let's see.

2024 AL MVP Judge 144 RBI led majors

2024 NL MVP Ohtani 130 RBI led NL

Your point is correct, but guys with the highest RBIs will generally still be found close to the top of the voting.  It's just that the RBI are now seen as more of a product of the high OPS + some good fortune.    

 

 

Neat.  

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, the last few weeks have put some distance in definition into the WC slot probabilities.

Last year at this time:

NY/CLE/HOU - DIV

BAL/MIN/KC - WC

What changed between that point and postseason? DET went on a crazy run (21-10) and MIN fell off (10-22). 

 

[mvp 78]

 

[Kimmi]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This situation does make me doubt the defensive metrics.

Is Bregman stealing plays from him, or something?

It takes about 3 seasons worth of data for defensive metrics to give us a good indication of how good or bad a player is defensively.  It could be that one or two missed plays have really skewed his numbers negatively this season.  

I trust the defensive metrics because I know that we are often biased in what we see.  Metrics take the bias out of these things as much as possible.

All that said, Story still looks a lot better to me defensively than his metrics give him credit for. 

[Kimmi]

21 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

If someone had said before the season that Narveaz would end the year with a 3 war, would anybody have believed that???  
too bad Cora burned him out do quickly this season!!! 

The good news is that Wong is finally starting to hit more like he did last season.  He's been able to pick up the slack and give Narvaez a much needed breather.

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

It takes about 3 seasons worth of data for defensive metrics to give us a good indication of how good or bad a player is defensively.  It could be that one or two missed plays have really skewed his numbers negatively this season.  

I trust the defensive metrics because I know that we are often biased in what we see.  Metrics take the bias out of these things as much as possible.

All that said, Story still looks a lot better to me defensively than his metrics give him credit for. 

I don't think just 1-2 plays can skew Story from a top 3-5 metrics gut to a 0 DRS and +1 OAA.

[moonslav59]

We just passed HOU in the standings.

We now have the 3rd best record in the AL.

TOR is just 4 up on us, and DET is up 5.

Run Diff in the AL

+110 NYY

+106 BOS

+93 DET

+63 TEX

+59 TOR
+39 TBR, +25 SEA, +14 HOU

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We just passed HOU in the standings.

We now have the 3rd best record in the AL.

TOR is just 4 up on us, and DET is up 5.

Run Diff in the AL

+110 NYY

+106 BOS

+93 DET

+63 TEX

+59 TOR
+39 TBR, +25 SEA, +14 HOU

With 20 double digit games and numerous 1 run losses I would think the Sox run differential would be even higher. But it is what it is.

[oldtimer]

15 hours ago, Kimmi said:

It takes about 3 seasons worth of data for defensive metrics to give us a good indication of how good or bad a player is defensively.  It could be that one or two missed plays have really skewed his numbers negatively this season.  

I trust the defensive metrics because I know that we are often biased in what we see.  Metrics take the bias out of these things as much as possible.

All that said, Story still looks a lot better to me defensively than his metrics give him credit for. 

I have 3 other octogenarians on my softball team in NC who are also long term Red Sox fans. One of them claims it takes 600 AB's to determine the type of hitter a player will turn into. He is pretty astute so i take his input seriously. Rafaela has 1076 while Anthony has over 270. Rafaela has been a 246 average hitter who lacks plate  discipline. He's okay if his defensive prowess is linked with his offense. Anthony has been exceptional so far but is likely to have his difficulties as pitchers seek his weaknesses, but he looks like a star in the making. What do think of my friend's rule of thumb?

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, oldtimer said:

I have 3 other octogenarians on my softball team in NC who are also long term Red Sox fans. One of them claims it takes 600 AB's to determine the type of hitter a player will turn into. He is pretty astute so i take his input seriously. Rafaela has 1076 while Anthony has over 270. Rafaela has been a 246 average hitter who lacks plate  discipline. He's okay if his defensive prowess is linked with his offense. Anthony has been exceptional so far but is likely to have his difficulties as pitchers seek his weaknesses, but he looks like a star in the making. What do think of my friend's rule of thumb?

600 is a very arbitrary number.  It's not unreasonable, but to give it any credibility you'd need to back it up with some data and examples.

 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

On 8/25/2025 at 4:24 PM, moonslav59 said:

That was my point. 

I asked what is the solution? Add an RBI guy? (There are none, just as there is no MLB players with "clutch" as his skillset.)

 

I disagree.  Who would you rather face in the 8th with a 1 run lead and 2 on base in October, Derek Jeter or Alex Rodriguez?  

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

With 20 double digit games and numerous 1 run losses I would think the Sox run differential would be even higher. But it is what it is.

Lots of other close games, other than 1 run games. We've had some bad losses, too. 11-1 and 14-2 are our worst, I think.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

600 is a very arbitrary number.  It's not unreasonable, but to give it any credibility you'd need to back it up with some data and examples.

 

600 just sounds like a full season's worth of AB's? 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

600 just sounds like a full season's worth of AB's? 

It is, yes.  But for guys starting out and having some struggles (like Campbell), the first 600 are often interrupted. 

I'm not a big fan of "one size fits all" when it comes to numbers like these.   

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

With 20 double digit games and numerous 1 run losses I would think the Sox run differential would be even higher. But it is what it is.

Lots of other close games, other than 1 run games. We've had some bad losses, too. 11-1 and 14-2 are our worst, I thi

[moonslav59]

So many players explod eor fall off a cliff after 600 PAs. Dalbec was over .800 at the 600 mark.

Rafaela seemingly failed to improve on his disciple all the way through is rise in the minors. He got labelled for being a high K/ low BB player, and rightfully so.

One thing I look at is how a player is trending and how old they are.

Over his first 660 PAs (2023-2024) he had a bad K rate of 27.1%. Many batters were worse, including some on the Sox. His BB% was a near worst 2.9%, and his K:BB ratio was among the worst in MLB history. Those two seasons confirmed what many felt he'd be, going forward.

Then, he turned 24. His 478 PAs in 2025 is a pretty large sample size, and he's has shown some very positive improvement in both of the areas of major concern. His K rate went down to 19.2%. That's an almost 30% improvement! More importantly, his BB rate went up to 4.6%. That's nearly a 60% increase!

Nobody know if he will continue to improve, stay at his current levels or decline, but why assume he will do worse as he nears his prime?

His BA did not suffer by getting more BBs. It's almost identical to '23-'24. His SLG improved, as many players do when reaching 24-26 years old. His OBP went from .275 to .291- still not good but a marked improvement.

I just don't get why he is the chosen one to bitch about.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I just don't get why he is the chosen one to bitch about.

It has to be because when Ceddanne is in his swing-at-every-pitch mode, no viewers can reach through our TVs and hold his arms back. And no matter how loudly we yell, "TAKE A PITCH" he can't hear us -- or worse, ignores us.

[Maxbialystock]

7 hours ago, Kimmi said:

The good news is that Wong is finally starting to hit more like he did last season.  He's been able to pick up the slack and give Narvaez a much needed breather.

Other good news is that Hamilton's OPS in August is higher than Gonzalez's.  As long as that's true, I think Hamilton will continue to start against righty starters.  

 

2 hours ago, oldtimer said:

I have 3 other octogenarians on my softball team in NC who are also long term Red Sox fans. One of them claims it takes 600 AB's to determine the type of hitter a player will turn into. He is pretty astute so i take his input seriously. Rafaela has 1076 while Anthony has over 270. Rafaela has been a 246 average hitter who lacks plate  discipline. He's okay if his defensive prowess is linked with his offense. Anthony has been exceptional so far but is likely to have his difficulties as pitchers seek his weaknesses, but he looks like a star in the making. What do think of my friend's rule of thumb?

600 is as good as any although there are plenty of examples whose hitting ability was obvious almost from the get go.  After 2 horrible months, Pedroia took off like a rocket.

I think citing 1076 at bats for Rafaela also makes sense, but I cling to the hope he will improve.

We already know Anthony's weakness--low pitches, especially low and inside.  

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It has to be because when Ceddanne is in his swing-at-every-pitch mode, no viewers can reach through our TVs and hold his arms back. And no matter how loudly we yell, "TAKE A PITCH" he can't hear us -- or worse, ignores us.

The thing is, we are not sure he'd be a better hitter, if he tried to change his approach.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

Other good news is that Hamilton's OPS in August is higher than Gonzalez's.  As long as that's true, I think Hamilton will continue to start against righty starters.  

 

600 is as good as any although there are plenty of examples whose hitting ability was obvious almost from the get go.  After 2 horrible months, Pedroia took off like a rocket.

I think citing 1076 at bats for Rafaela also makes sense, but I cling to the hope he will improve.

We already know Anthony's weakness--low pitches, especially low and inside.  

He has improved, a lot. (See my post on 2023+2024 vs 2025.)

[oldtimer]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

600 is a very arbitrary number.  It's not unreasonable, but to give it any credibility you'd need to back it up with some data and examples.

 

I don't have those examples as my friend just made the statement without backup. It does make some sense, as a player has likely seen a large variety of pitchers, both  home and away and has gone through adjustment cycles, as his weaknesses were exposed. Perhaps failing at first can become an impetus to make changes that are positive. Also, being influenced by a new hitting coach or a veteran player can change people. Rules of thumb are not universally true but general in nature. I hope Rafaela makes adjustments from being an okay hitter to a good hitter for the Sox.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It is, yes.  But for guys starting out and having some struggles (like Campbell), the first 600 are often interrupted. 

I'm not a big fan of "one size fits all" when it comes to numbers like these.   

For sure because progression isn't always linear.

Jose Bautista 04-09: 2038 PA, 59 HR, 729 OPS

Jose Bautista 10-15: 3604 PA, 227 HR, 945 OPS

JD Martinez 11-13: 975 PA, 24 HR, 687 OPS

JD Martinez 14-19: 3449 PA, 207 HR, 954 OPS

 

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

Other good news is that Hamilton's OPS in August is higher than Gonzalez's.  As long as that's true, I think Hamilton will continue to start against righty starters.  

Romy has a 614 OPS since 7/13, 529 the last 13 G. 

[Maxbialystock]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's amazing how much the odds drop off from the 6 slot to the 7th in both leagues.

So much for keeping more teams in it for longer into the season.

There is a sharp cut off after "the haves" top 12 in MLB. While there is only a 3.5 GB gap between the NYM and CIN, the odds differential is massive. Same with BOS/SEA vs KCR.

Perhaps the biggest surprises in the MLB standings is ATL, BAL & MIN being passed by ATH, MIA & LAA, but there is still time for them to flip places.

Great observations.  My one thought is that it's late August and the better teams are emerging.  Goodness knows the Sox have had more ups and downs than the paratroopers in Band of Brothers.

The Sox are doing it this year with a bunch of new faces, solid pitching backed up by solid defense, and excellent hitting which has also been inconsistent.  

Here's an interesting tidbit. Since the ASG the Sox have played 14 home games against the Dodgers, Astros, Royals, Marlins, and Orioles and the average attendance has been about 36,500,  That to me is an absolutely stunning number and I expect it to continue to the end of the season.  That has to be very good news for JH.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

It's hard to know if Rafaela will continue improving on his K rate and BB rate. If he stays as he is, it will be hard for him to improve on a .710 OPS- not impossible, but hard.

Consider this: of the top 15 batters on the Sox by PAs, 12 have a higher K% than Rafaela's 19.2%, but him striking out is apparently killing the team. (8 players are nearly 5% higher or more.)

He does blow most away in his low BB%:

4.6 Rafaela

4.9 Toro (DFA'd)

5.3 Story

5.7 Romy

6.2 DHam

(Yoshida is 4.4 and #16 in PAs)

Last year, the gap was a lot wider:

2.6 Rafaela

5.6 Romy

5.7 Wong

6.1 Grissom

6.4 Yoshida

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Great observations.  My one thought is that it's late August and the better teams are emerging.  Goodness knows the Sox have had more ups and downs than the paratroopers in Band of Brothers.

The Sox are doing it this year with a bunch of new faces, solid pitching backed up by solid defense, and excellent hitting which has also been inconsistent.  

Here's an interesting tidbit. Since the ASG the Sox have played 14 home games against the Dodgers, Astros, Royals, Marlins, and Orioles and the average attendance has been about 36,500,  That to me is an absolutely stunning number and I expect it to continue to the end of the season.  That has to be very good news for JH.  

The Sox averaged 35,994 every game as recently as 2019. They just have to have a good product on the field.