A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm befuddled as to how there's much difference between an "RBI guy" and a "power bat".  I would suggest that "RBI guy" is kind of a problematic term.  I thought Talksox intelligentsia has established that RBI is a team stat...

An RBI guy from back in the day is a guy with a high BA w RISP, today.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

An RBI guy from back in the day is a guy with a high BA w RISP, today.

A high BA with RISP (higher than actual BA) is generally chalked up to randomness.

There's no such thing as an "RBI guy" as far as it being a special skill...

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

An RBI guy from back in the day is a guy with a high BA w RISP, today.

Clark had a 268 BA in the 80's. He was strictly an OBP guy, back when nobody talked about OBP. 3rd in BB's in the 80's behind Rickey and Dewey. 94 IBB's too! 

[Kimmi]

On 8/20/2025 at 5:03 PM, moonslav59 said:

We have not been great on the road, so things look bleak, but I think this team has grit.

I guess we'll find out.

HOU, SEA and TOR already lost, today. NYY plays at TBR, tonight. We gain by not playing.

Well, we ended up much better in the Bronx than I thought we would.  To say that I'm pleased with taking 3 out of 4 would be a huge understatement.

Now we need at least 2 of 4 in Baltimore, hopefully more.

[Kimmi]

On 8/21/2025 at 2:06 AM, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I would replace 'one of the best' with 'one of the least worst.'

We are also one of the least worst in MLB.

[Kimmi]

On 8/23/2025 at 4:12 PM, moonslav59 said:

Had I said Story would be 7th in the AL in RBI on August 23rd, back in March, April and May, I'd be called crazy.

Nice turn-around Trevor!

Plus, he looks really good defensively.  I am baffled by his current defensive metrics.

At any rate, it's good to see him healthy and playing well.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

A high BA with RISP (higher than actual BA) is generally chalked up to randomness.

There's no such thing as an "RBI guy" as far as it being a special skill...

That was my point. 

I asked what is the solution? Add an RBI guy? (There are none, just as there is no MLB players with "clutch" as his skillset.)

There really is no solution. No GM or manager can "fix" it. Line-up changes have minimal impact. Players who seem to hit well in the clutch, don't the next year or years, and vice versa.

It's random, and in random sample sizes, you will find some players that have higher numbers in chosen situations than others, and that's all it is.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

Plus, he looks really good defensively.  I am baffled by his current defensive metrics.

This situation does make me doubt the defensive metrics.

Is Bregman stealing plays from him, or something?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I asked what is the solution? Add an RBI guy? (There are none, just as there is no MLB players with "clutch" as his skillset.)

There really is no solution. 

My list of non-Red Sox with .250 averages with men on base doesn't show anything clutch -- they all fail to get hits 3 out of every 4 at bats.

The one positive they all have in common, however, is the longball. Raleigh, Schwarber, Suarez, Ward all have 30, 40, to almost 50 home runs this year... or at least 50 percent more to twice as many than any Red Sox batter.

This all came from someone describing the Yankees batting order as "terrific." We all know they only have one truly terrifying batter... but what they do have are EIGHT guys with 16 or more homers. The Red Sox have three.

The pair of Yankees who hit two HRs apiece last night are batting .247 and .239. Two of the other Yankees with 18 and 17 HRs -- Volpe and Wells -- are batting .208 and .207. They're not good nor clutch, but when they make contact and it goes over the fence, it just seems that way. The scoreboard might even reflect multiple instant runs...

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

My list of non-Red Sox with .250 averages with men on base doesn't show anything clutch -- they all fail to get hits 3 out of every 4 at bats.

The one positive they all have in common, however, is the longball. Raleigh, Schwarber, Suarez, Ward all have 30, 40, to almost 50 home runs this year... or at least 50 percent more to twice as many than any Red Sox batter.

This all came from someone describing the Yankees batting order as "terrific." We all know they only have one truly terrifying batter... but what they do have are EIGHT guys with 16 or more homers. The Red Sox have three.

The pair of Yankees who hit two HRs apiece last night are batting .247 and .239. Two of the other Yankees with 18 and 17 HRs -- Volpe and Wells -- are batting .208 and .207. They're not good nor clutch, but when they make contact and it goes over the fence, it just seems that way. The scoreboard might even reflect multiple instant runs...

It's all a mirage- like the Moon landing.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 hours ago, Kimmi said:

We are also one of the least worst in MLB.

No arguing that.

[moonslav59]

Evena after losing last night, we still have the 9th best record in all of MLB. That's top tier (if you go by 3 tiers.)

There are 7 teams within 3 games of us and 13 teams with 6 games of us, so our ranking could go way up or down due to one good or bad streak.

Only 4 teams have a better run differential and two of them are ahead by one run (PHI & NYY.)

We could be called the worst of the best.

[Larry Cook]

On 8/24/2025 at 4:06 PM, moonslav59 said:

Here are the WAR leaders on the Sox (avg bWAR & fWAR- rounding up)

5.3 Crochet (5.2, 5.3)

3.8 Bregman (4.1, 3.5)

3.4 Duran (3.7, 3.1)

3.3 Rafaela (3.6, 2.9)

3.0 Story (3.3, 2.6)

3.0 Abreu (3.3, 2.7)

2.9 Narvaez (3.0, 2.7)

2.5 Chapman (2.9, 2.0)

2.5 Anthony (2.6, 2.3)

1.9 Bello (2.3, 1.5)

1.5 Whitlock (1.4, 1.5)

1.2 Giolito (1.1, 1.3)

1.1 Romy (1.1, 1.1)

1.0 Refsnyder (1.2, 0.8)

0.6 Wilson (0.4, 0.6)

0.5 Weissert (0.6, 0.3)

 

 

 

If someone had said before the season that Narveaz would end the year with a 3 war, would anybody have believed that???  
too bad Cora burned him out do quickly this season!!! 

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

If someone had said before the season that Narveaz would end the year with a 3 war, would anybody have believed that???  
too bad Cora burned him out do quickly this season!!! 

I would not have projected even 2.0, but we did know he was great on defense, and I did mention he had decent stats in the minors.

.371 OBP in AAA with 21 HRs in 627 ABs.

.364 OBP in the minors with about 15-16 HRs per 650.

[sk7326]

It is a little less shock and awe due to the 5 homeruns, but Anthony's 2.5 WAR on 266 PAs is wildly impressive.  

[Maxbialystock]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This situation does make me doubt the defensive metrics.

Is Bregman stealing plays from him, or something?

I'm glad you both agree Story looks really good on defense this season.  I don't know about how great his range is, but I love his instincts/intelligence on almost every play he makes.  Maybe 3 months ago whoever was on 3b--not Bregman--had a pop fly and Story realized he'd lost it, so went over to catch it for him. I also think he has a reliable glove and arm.  

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I'm glad you both agree Story looks really good on defense this season.  I don't know about how great his range is, but I love his instincts/intelligence on almost every play he makes.  Maybe 3 months ago whoever was on 3b--not Bregman--had a pop fly and Story realized he'd lost it, so went over to catch it for him. I also think he has a reliable glove and arm.  

I've been a Story fan since the signing, because I love defense at key spots.

I'm sure our staff appreciates Story at SS.

[moonslav59]

On the surface, it looks like the high ranking our farm has is the result of Chapman and Whitlock carrying the numbers to those heights. While it's true they have made a big impact (1.97 ERA in 110 IP, before tonight's game,) the rest of the pen has been very respectable.

Of course, not everyone, but the rest of the pen, combined is at a 3.85 ERA in 357 IP. That's better than our SP'er ERA of 3.92!!!

Now, consider that 9 of our RP'ers (Kelly, Hicks, Hendriks, IC, Moran, Fulmer, Stock, Buehler and Toro) let up 58 ERs in 69.2 IP for a 7.50 ERA, the others not named Whitlock & Chapman have done very well, as no-names, mostly.

The "others" have pitched 287 IP at a 3.05 ERA mark, and I included these guys in that sample:

5.06 Criswell in 11 IP

4.15 Guerrero in 17 IP

3.86 Winckowski in 12 IP

and a few others over 3.05 (Bello, Slaten, Newcomb, Dobbins & Alcala)

Hats off to the pen.

[Hitch]

8 hours ago, sk7326 said:

It is a little less shock and awe due to the 5 homeruns, but Anthony's 2.5 WAR on 266 PAs is wildly impressive.  

It really is. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

It really is. 

It's almost a 7 WAR projected to 650 to 675 PAs!

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

On the surface, it looks like the high ranking our farm has is the result of Chapman and Whitlock carrying the numbers to those heights. While it's true they have made a big impact (1.97 ERA in 110 IP, before tonight's game,) the rest of the pen has been very respectable.

Of course, not everyone, but the rest of the pen, combined is at a 3.85 ERA in 357 IP. That's better than our SP'er ERA of 3.92!!!

Now, consider that 9 of our RP'ers (Kelly, Hicks, Hendriks, IC, Moran, Fulmer, Stock, Buehler and Toro) let up 58 ERs in 69.2 IP for a 7.50 ERA, the others not named Whitlock & Chapman have done very well, as no-names, mostly.

The "others" have pitched 287 IP at a 3.05 ERA mark, and I included these guys in that sample:

5.06 Criswell in 11 IP

4.15 Guerrero in 17 IP

3.86 Winckowski in 12 IP

and a few others over 3.05 (Bello, Slaten, Newcomb, Dobbins & Alcala)

Hats off to the pen.

Almost every poster felt our pen was going to be one of our weakest areas and wondered if Chapman would be a decent closer. I was very vocal about my disgust with how Brez neglected the pen. The only hope I saw was that our surplus of SP'ers could help out in the pen. Virtually, none did. Chapman has been great. Wilson did pretty well for 2-3 months. Whitlock took up the Slaten injury slack while carrying his own weight, at the same time. Unsung pitchers like Weissert, Bernardino and a few others have has times of struggle, but overall they have bridge many a starter to Whitlock & CHapman with very little damage done in between.

We would not be where we are without them. I know fWAR disagrees, but I think we'd be flirting with .500 with a bad pen. (Sox pen fWAR is 5.4 and T2nd in MLB.)

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This situation does make me doubt the defensive metrics.

Is Bregman stealing plays from him, or something?

We've seen really bad SS defense the past few years so we get excited at seeing average SS defense. This makes us confused as to why the metrics just look mediocre. His average defense is just a lot better than we've witnessed at the position for several years. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We've seen really bad SS defense the past few years so we get excited at seeing average SS defense. This makes us confused as to why the metrics just look mediocre. His average defense is just a lot better than we've witnessed at the position for several years. 

There is truth to this, and we still see opposing SSs make awesome plays against us, time and time again. It's also hard to notice slight declines in a player's range.

It figure that just when we talk about Story being better than the metrics show, he makes a horrible throw.

[Bellhorn04]

The bottom line is Story has made a hell of a comeback from a series of calamities and you can't ask for much more than he's been doing.  Just need him to stay healthy.

[mvp 78]

 

[Maxbialystock]

21 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

A high BA with RISP (higher than actual BA) is generally chalked up to randomness.

There's no such thing as an "RBI guy" as far as it being a special skill...

That's what the stats guys are telling us, but back in the day the rbi leaders were usually leaders in the MVP hunt.  Now it's OPS/WAR.  

[Maxbialystock]

Love the fangraphs slide, but ain't going to bluesky.  

Sox now 91.7% to make the postseason.  My, my.  What will they think of next?  

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The bottom line is Story has made a hell of a comeback from a series of calamities and you can't ask for much more than he's been doing.  Just need him to stay healthy.

You nailed it.  

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

We've seen really bad SS defense the past few years so we get excited at seeing average SS defense. This makes us confused as to why the metrics just look mediocre. His average defense is just a lot better than we've witnessed at the position for several years. 

I disagree with average.  Story ain't headed for a gold glove, but man oh man does he do a lot of things well.  Put it this way:  maybe his physical skills are average, but his intellect/instincts are way above average and that is crucial for all shortstops.  Plus I think both he and Bregman make consistently good throws. 

The Sox, at least during the highly successful JH era, have tended to prefer hitting over fielding in their SS's.  Their best fielding SS's don't last too long, but the ones who can hit do.  This year Story is an asset on the field and at bat and the first Sox SS to do so in the JH era.  

 

[Bellhorn04]

20 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

That's what the stats guys are telling us, but back in the day the rbi leaders were usually leaders in the MVP hunt.  Now it's OPS/WAR.  

Well, let's see.

2024 AL MVP Judge 144 RBI led majors

2024 NL MVP Ohtani 130 RBI led NL

Your point is correct, but guys with the highest RBIs will generally still be found close to the top of the voting.  It's just that the RBI are now seen as more of a product of the high OPS + some good fortune.