A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Does Toro have a permanent rib issue?

We keep ribbing him, but he's not ticklish.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We keep ribbing him, but he's not ticklish.

He homered after one ribbing, so I'm sticking with it.

[Nick]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Permanently injured guys don't get a lot of ARB money. Not sure what his FA market is. People getting very excited over one start though. 

I saw his market value around $3M+....just looked cheap. We did make a trade for him.

[vegasbob]

A year ago the Sox had 4 serious MLB prospects, Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Campbell.

Now only Anthony is on our field. Yes Teel was part of getting Crochet so that's fair .

Mayer on IL no timeline, Campbell relearning how to play field and hit.

The reliance on the farm system may be cost effective but you may wait another couple years for a strong team.

Meanwhile the Bregmans and Chapman have moved on

[Larry Cook]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Does Toro have a permanent rib issue?

I think the correct term is aaaa syndrome 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

40 games left, the final quarter of the season: 20 home, 20 away.

Winning half would give the Red Sox 86 wins, which was good enough for the Royals and Tigers to make the postseason a year ago. Still, 88 or 89 would be a more secure number...

The Sox could maintain their .600 winning percentage at Fenway and go 12-8 at home. But can they just break even on the road, and go 10-10? Maybe... those trips include four each in the Bronx and Baltimore, and three each in Arizona and Toronto. Forget about records -- and just accept that all those series will be tough.

Then there are a pair of three-game September series at the homeless A's and Rays, neither of whom may be playing for anything. That's what makes them dangerous... Better buckle up!

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

40 games left, the final quarter of the season: 20 home, 20 away.

Winning half would give the Red Sox 86 wins, which was good enough for the Royals and Tigers to make the postseason a year ago. Still, 88 or 89 would be a more secure number...

The Sox could maintain their .600 winning percentage at Fenway and go 12-8 at home. But can they just break even on the road, and go 10-10? Maybe... those trips include four each in the Bronx and Baltimore, and three each in Arizona and Toronto. Forget about records -- and just accept that all those series will be tough.

Then there are a pair of three-game September series at the homeless A's and Rays, neither of whom may be playing for anything. That's what makes them dangerous... Better buckle up!

We just went through the toughest part of the schedule and did not show another August collapse. Although there is still time for that to happen, I see a fight in this team that wasn't apparent in previous seasons.

We just went 17-11 against no bad teams

4 TBR, 3@CHC, 3@PHI, 3 LAD, 3@MIN, 3 HOU & KCR and 3@SDP & HOU.

Miami is no push-over. They were one of baseball's hottest teams, recently. BAL is playing better that the first half of the season. We still have some tough teams to face, including teams trying to pass us for a playoff berth.

One game at a time, guy! Let's do this!

[Maxbialystock]

13 hours ago, vegasbob said:

A year ago the Sox had 4 serious MLB prospects, Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Campbell.

Now only Anthony is on our field. Yes Teel was part of getting Crochet so that's fair .

Mayer on IL no timeline, Campbell relearning how to play field and hit.

The reliance on the farm system may be cost effective but you may wait another couple years for a strong team.

Meanwhile the Bregmans and Chapman have moved on

Moved on?  Chapman, maybe.  But I will be astounded if the Sox don't keep Bregman.  

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Moved on?  Chapman, maybe.  But I will be astounded if the Sox don't keep Bregman.  

We also started the year with rookies Narvaez, who ended up wining the FT catcher role before Mayer and Anthony were even called up.

We also saw Dobbins win a rotation slot, before going on the IL.

That's 6 rookies who all look like keepers, to me. The one wo got the first shot, Campbell, might have the least shot at winning a FT role, right now.

(Fitts is also a rookie, and he showed a little promise before being demoted.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Moved on?  Chapman, maybe.  But I will be astounded if the Sox don't keep Bregman.  

If it means keeping Bregman, the Sox will name him player-manager and bump Cora to the front office.

Strike that; Cora will be promoted first, so he can convince Breggy to take over the dugout.

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We just went through the toughest part of the schedule and did not show another August collapse. Although there is still time for that to happen, I see a fight in this team that wasn't apparent in previous seasons.

We just went 17-11 against no bad teams

4 TBR, 3@CHC, 3@PHI, 3 LAD, 3@MIN, 3 HOU & KCR and 3@SDP & HOU.

Miami is no push-over. They were one of baseball's hottest teams, recently. BAL is playing better that the first half of the season. We still have some tough teams to face, including teams trying to pass us for a playoff berth.

One game at a time, guy! Let's do this!

Finally, finally someone who wants to provide a realistic view of 2025!!!!!

Plus I needed to read something positive after losing 4/6 at San Diego and Houston.   However, 2 of the 4 losses were 1 run games.  Against two of the best pitching staffs in MLB in their ball parks the Sox scored 37 runs in 6 games.  If we throw out 8 of the 14 runs Tuesday night, it's still 29 runs in 6 games.  

So I think the Sox hitting is still good.  So is the pitching, ERA 3.75. 

So is the defense in LF, CF, RF, Catcher, 3b, and SS.  Heck, the Sox actually have 4 good defensive outfielders, who can also hit.  Bregman at 3b and Story at SS by themselves are a major improvement over last year, and so far Narvaez has the best DWAR of any Sox catcher in a long time.   Yes, there are errors, but also a lot excellent plays that save runs.  

Barring key injuries, I think these Sox are headed for the postseason.  

 

 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We also started the year with rookies Narvaez, who ended up wining the FT catcher role before Mayer and Anthony were even called up.

We also saw Dobbins win a rotation slot, before going on the IL.

That's 6 rookies who all look like keepers, to me. The one wo got the first shot, Campbell, might have the least shot at winning a FT role, right now.

(Fitts is also a rookie, and he showed a little promise before being demoted.)

Some excellent reminders in there.  The farm system has definitely been paying off.  If Mayer can stay off the IL--a big if--he is definitely an asset.   If Campbell can fix his hitting, I have every confidence he can play 1b.  FWIW, Campbell's horrible, terrible OPS when he left was .664.  Toro's is .689.  

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Some excellent reminders in there.  The farm system has definitely been paying off.  If Mayer can stay off the IL--a big if--he is definitely an asset.   If Campbell can fix his hitting, I have every confidence he can play 1b.  FWIW, Campbell's horrible, terrible OPS when he left was .664.  Toro's is .689.  

Campbell: 4/30 - 6/18 451 OPS

Toro : 6/13 - present 542 OPS

Comparing Campbell's numbers favorably to Toro isn't the win we want it to be. Neither of them should be playing for BOS right now. 

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Finally, finally someone who wants to provide a realistic view of 2025!!!!!

Plus I needed to read something positive after losing 4/6 at San Diego and Houston.   However, 2 of the 4 losses were 1 run games.  Against two of the best pitching staffs in MLB in their ball parks the Sox scored 37 runs in 6 games.  If we throw out 8 of the 14 runs Tuesday night, it's still 29 runs in 6 games.  

So I think the Sox hitting is still good.  So is the pitching, ERA 3.75. 

So is the defense in LF, CF, RF, Catcher, 3b, and SS.  Heck, the Sox actually have 4 good defensive outfielders, who can also hit.  Bregman at 3b and Story at SS by themselves are a major improvement over last year, and so far Narvaez has the best DWAR of any Sox catcher in a long time.   Yes, there are errors, but also a lot excellent plays that save runs.  

Barring key injuries, I think these Sox are headed for the postseason.  

 

We've certainly improved in many areas over last year, and despite losing Devers via trade, it looks like we are a better team now than at the start of 2025. Gio, Bello, Chapman, Anthony, Narvaez and others have exceeded expectations.

Our D looks better in theory, but has not always shown it on the field. That is one area we can do better over the last 25% of the season.

Our pen has been way better than anyone expected. Just keeping pace would be great.

Our top 3 rotation guys have saved the season and need to keep doing well. The 4-5 slots have been a struggle, and injuries have caused us to cycle through a few arms. I'm not expecting greatness, but if just one guy steps up, he could be the difference-maker.

The offense has been fine, except for too much bunching up on production in just a few games, and then having too many near do-nothing games. More consistency is needed, but it's not really a skill set, so it's hard to know how to improve upon this weakness.

In the AL, among the top 6-8 contenders, I think we have a...

top 3 rotation

top 3 pen

top 3 offense

average defense

better than average base running

That should make us a top 3-4 team with a chance to be top 2, if we put it all together. I doubt we fall to 7 or 8th, but our history has not been kind over the last 40 games in recent years. This team has enough new faces to believe things will be better, this year.

 

[moonslav59]

The remaining schedule looks easier than the last few weeks looked, but nothing can be taken for granted. We also play several teams in contention, so those head-to-head games create double whammy effects for the winning team.

Game remaining: (current record vs team)

7 NYY (5-1)

6 BAL (4-3)

6 ATH (n/a)

3 TOR (3-7) & TBR (8-2)

3 DET (0-3), ARI (n/a) & CLE (2-1)

3 MIA (n/a), PIT (n/a)

If we can go 4-3 v NYY, 7-5 v BAL & ATH, 3-3 v TOR & TBR, 5-4 v DET, AZ & CLE and 4-2 v PIT & MIA, we should make the dance.

We need to take these games one at a time, of course.

[notin]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Campbell: 4/30 - 6/18 451 OPS

Toro : 6/13 - present 542 OPS

Comparing Campbell's numbers favorably to Toro isn't the win we want it to be. Neither of them should be playing for BOS right now. 

So just leave 1b vacant? Or play Romy full time?

[mvp 78]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We've certainly improved in many areas over last year, and despite losing Devers via trade, it looks like we are a better team now than at the start of 2025. Gio, Bello, Chapman, Anthony, Narvaez and others have exceeded expectations.

Our D looks better in theory, but has not always shown it on the field. That is one area we can do better over the last 25% of the season.

Our pen has been way better than anyone expected. Just keeping pace would be great.

Our top 3 rotation guys have saved the season and need to keep doing well. The 4-5 slots have been a struggle, and injuries have caused us to cycle through a few arms. I'm not expecting greatness, but if just one guy steps up, he could be the difference-maker.

The offense has been fine, except for too much bunching up on production in just a few games, and then having too many near do-nothing games. More consistency is needed, but it's not really a skill set, so it's hard to know how to improve upon this weakness.

In the AL, among the top 6-8 contenders, I think we have a...

top 3 rotation

top 3 pen

top 3 offense

average defense

better than average base running

That should make us a top 3-4 team with a chance to be top 2, if we put it all together. I doubt we fall to 7 or 8th, but our history has not been kind over the last 40 games in recent years. This team has enough new faces to believe things will be better, this year.

 

Sox are tied for 4th in wRC+ in AL.

Sox are 8th in fWAR for SP in AL. They aren't top 3 in many metrics I could find.

Sox are 2nd (tied) in fWAR for RP in AL. #1 in ERA, #3 in FIP, #1 HR/FB, #1 Barrel%, #2 Hard Hit%.

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

So just leave 1b vacant? Or play Romy full time?

It's a bad situation because I don't want Rafaela at 2b either (313 OPS at 2b). If Toro is only going to OPS around 650 going forward (it's actually been worse the last two months), I'd DFA him and call up Sogard. It's not very exciting, but he gives you a better versatility in the IF. I'd get him into the rotation, play Romy more and get Rafaela away from 2b. The OF defense makes more sense with Rafaela in CF. Sogard is a plug and play guy as needed. Having a guy like Sogard is also more helpful when you are stuck carrying 3 catchers. 

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We've certainly improved in many areas over last year, and despite losing Devers via trade, it looks like we are a better team now than at the start of 2025. Gio, Bello, Chapman, Anthony, Narvaez and others have exceeded expectations.

Our D looks better in theory, but has not always shown it on the field. That is one area we can do better over the last 25% of the season.

Our pen has been way better than anyone expected. Just keeping pace would be great.

Our top 3 rotation guys have saved the season and need to keep doing well. The 4-5 slots have been a struggle, and injuries have caused us to cycle through a few arms. I'm not expecting greatness, but if just one guy steps up, he could be the difference-maker.

The offense has been fine, except for too much bunching up on production in just a few games, and then having too many near do-nothing games. More consistency is needed, but it's not really a skill set, so it's hard to know how to improve upon this weakness.

In the AL, among the top 6-8 contenders, I think we have a...

top 3 rotation

top 3 pen

top 3 offense

average defense

better than average base running

That should make us a top 3-4 team with a chance to be top 2, if we put it all together. I doubt we fall to 7 or 8th, but our history has not been kind over the last 40 games in recent years. This team has enough new faces to believe things will be better, this year.

 

Agree with all except the defense.  And that's good because we have to disagree on something.  

Kudos to both Breslow and Cora--but especially to all those Sox players who keep life interesting for me.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox are tied for 4th in wRC+ in AL.

Sox are 8th in fWAR for SP in AL. They aren't top 3 in many metrics I could find.

Sox are 2nd (tied) in fWAR for RP in AL. #1 in ERA, #3 in FIP, #1 HR/FB, #1 Barrel%, #2 Hard Hit%.

Try reading my words. I said "top 3 out of the 6-8 contenders."

According to fangraphs, we are:

3rd in all AL in fWAR for everyday players. Funny how you use fWAR for pitch9ing but wRC+ for everyday players. We are also 3rd in AL OPs, and yes, tied for 4th in wRC+. (Ooooo, missed by 1 slot.)

5th in fWAR pitching, but behind 3 teams that are NOT  CONTENDERS!  We are 3rd in the AL in ERA- (a valid metric, and we'd be 1st, if you dont count TEX & KCR as contenders) 4th in SP ERA-, but 2nd if no TEX & KCR. 1st in RP ERA- in all of AL.

Yes, T2nd in fWAR oen, but once again, MIN is NOT a contender. I said among contenders.

Yes, 8th in SP fWAR in AL, but 6th among  contenders.

Again, among the contenders we are top 3 in everyday players, rotation and pen. We are about avg on D, Why not call me out on this one? We are T2nd in AL DRS (your fave D metric)- behind the team you suggested was about to "get hot," Texas. I was wrong there, but on the low side.

Of course, on could argue TEX and KCR are still contenders, and that has merit, but I did write, "the top 6-8 contenders," which leaves out 1-2 teams from CLE, TEX & KC.

For the king nitpicker, you miss a lot.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Agree with all except the defense.  And that's good because we have to disagree on something.  

Kudos to both Breslow and Cora--but especially to all those Sox players who keep life interesting for me.  

You don't think we improved on defense?

[moonslav59]

2024 to2025:

Defense:

OAA: -17> projected +4

49 DRS> projected 47

Everyday Players: 21.3 fWAR> projected 25.3 (wRC+ the same at 105, but OPS up 14 points as the league avg has fallen.)

Offense 41>41

Baserunning: 4.5>6.6

Pitching: 15.4 fWAR> projected 17.2

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Try reading my words. 

 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

I did. I understood your point, fully. 

And, why jump around in your stats/metrics of choice.

Were you correct in saying...

 

They aren't top 3 in many metrics I could find.

 

Even if we go by the full AL:

 

3rd in everyday player fWAR 

3rd in OPS (T4th in wRC+ is close enough to look at fWAR, OPS and wRC+ and say top 3 combined.)

 

2nd DRS (4th OAA) call it 3rd.

 

I can mishmash pitching metrics, too:

2nd in RP fWAR (1st ERA-)

4th in SP ERA- (pretty dam close to 3rd. If you go by top 3 SP'ers as I mentioned, I think we are top 3 in the AL.)

[moonslav59]

The Sox are 6th in team OPS, just .001 behind the Cubs. They have done this with no qualified batter in the top 42. (Abreu is 43rd at .814.)

This is a sign of a balanced offense and a lot of players with not enough PAs to qualify doing very well.

When you lower the PA limit to 150 PAs and a sample size of 350 batter (about 11 per team) here are our rankings:

10 Bregman .921

15 Romy .893

35. Anthony .840

47. Refsnyder .827

63. Abreu .814

87. Duran .787

139. Narvaez .737

145. Rafaela .736

164. Story .720

(9 above the halfway cutoff and 2 below)

227. Toro .689

253. Campbell .664

[moonslav59]

330 pitchers have pitched 40+ IP, this year (11 per team) Here are the ERA- rankings for MLB:

1. Chapman 28

32. Crochet 58

55. Whitlock 65

58. Weissert 67

85. Bernardino 73

104. Bello 77

160, Giolito 89

190. Dobbins 97

251. Fitts 114

288. Buehler 128

330. Houck 189

We have the best and the worst!

________________________________

SP rankings 50+ IP (150 pitchers or 5 per 30 teams)

10. Crochet (a solid #1)

39. Bello (upper end #2)

63. Giolito (upper end #3)

87. Dobbins (lower end #3)

131. Buehler (mid #5)

150. Houck (bottom #5)

______________________

Out of 90 SP'ers with 100+ IP:

6. Crochet

23. Bello

37. Giolito

84. Buehler

[Maxbialystock]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You don't think we improved on defense?

Sure I do.  You said average and I think the Sox defense is above average.  

[Larry Cook]

September calls up a few weeks away. Fitts, Murphy and Bearnadino are on the 40 man roster!!! 
 

does slaten have any chance of coming back by the end of the season?????

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Sure I do.  You said average and I think the Sox defense is above average.  

I've said they are better on defense but have been playing about average, this year.

We lead MLB in unearned runs allowed. That can't make us above avg in the play on the field.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

September calls up a few weeks away. Fitts, Murphy and Bearnadino are on the 40 man roster!!! 
 

does slaten have any chance of coming back by the end of the season?????

They say Slaten will be ready, but he has not thrown in a game, yet.

Don't forget Criswell. Harrison does not seem like an option, as of now. Kelly is pitching for Woo after coming off the IL. I doubt he's on the 1-2-3 next list. He's maybe 4 or 5.