A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Wilyer and Jarren have already surpassed their dumb ZiPS projections for 2025. 

Rafaela, too, but his was harder to project, of course.

Narvaez! WOW!

Has Story?

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Rafaela, too, but his was harder to project, of course.

Narvaez! WOW!

Has Story?

I just thought the ZiPS projections were pretty bad for the a few of the Sox and it seems that they were a little to conservative. 

[mvp 78]

Alcala didn't clear waivers, claimed by Bloom and the Cardinals. 

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I just thought the ZiPS projections were pretty bad for the a few of the Sox and it seems that they were a little to conservative. 

They seem pretty conservative for everybody, especially pitchers, but that did seem absurd. Abreu's D alone would give him that WAR.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They seem pretty conservative for everybody, especially pitchers, but that did seem absurd. Abreu's D alone would give him that WAR.

Abreu's seemed egregious to me. Next offseason, I don't want to hear much about ZiPS. It has as much value as BTV. It can be a fun little tool, but it's not an argument in and of itself. 

[dgalehouse]

Jorge Alcala is only 30. He has a live arm, throws hard and is apparently healthy. Teams are willing to give a guy like that another look. Red Sox fans are not known for their patience.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Abreu's seemed egregious to me. Next offseason, I don't want to hear much about ZiPS. It has as much value as BTV. It can be a fun little tool, but it's not an argument in and of itself. 

harmony won't like hearing this!

[moonslav59]

It's hard to get a read on next year's starting point for the player budget, since the Bregman opt-out looms large, as well as the Gio and Story nuanced options, but here is a stab at it:

Lux Tax Dollars according to cots

28 Crochet

18 Yoshida

16 Anthony

10 Hicks

9 Bello

9 Sandoval

8 Duran (team option, then 2 arbs)

8 Campbell

6 Rafaela

5 Whitlock

2 buyout of Hendriks $12M mutual option

2 Devers ("CBT True Up")

20 (18 Player Benefits + 2 Pre-arb bonus pool)

$143M Total before arbs and options.

$32 Bregman, if he does not opt out (maybe more, if we extend him)

$23 Story, if he does not opt out, or he does and we take the add a year option.

$14M Giolito, if he does not reach 140 IP and Sox take option. It may be $19M mutual option w $1.5M buy out if he reaches 140.)

These three contracts could add $59M or more, bringing the pre-arb number to about $202M

Arbs:

Houck (2nd of 3: made $4M in '25)

Crawford (2nd of 4: made $3M in '25)

Burdi (3rd of 4: made $500K)

Wong, Bernardino, Casas, Kelly (arb 1)

I don't see big arbs, here. Maybe we add $12M and get to $214M, total.

That would leave $30M to spend to the line and $50M to spend to the second line, assuming Bregman, Story & Giolito return. cots says $58M, but I'm not sure they count arbs, Gio or Duran.

We'd need to add a closer, for sure. Would we have enough to sign a big FA SP'er. or could we trade for one and use the rest of the money on the pen and maybe 1B?

(Did I miss someone?)

[iortiz]

3 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Jorge Alcala is only 30. He has a live arm, throws hard and is apparently healthy. Teams are willing to give a guy like that another look. Red Sox fans are not known for their patience.

He had to go. His control and command are awful to say the least. Wish him the best though. 

[moonslav59]

This is the 3 year foundation core (all under control for 3+) All w MLB experience/ no true prospects listed:

C: Narvaez & Wong

1B: Campbell & Casas (Romy)

2B: Mayer/Campbell (DHam/Grissom)

SS: Story, Sogard

3B: [Bregman/Mayer]

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu/Anthony

DH: Anthony/Romy

SP: Crochet, Bello, Crawford, Dobbins, Houck, Criswell, Fitts, Harrison

RP: Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Murphy, Wink, Kelly, Guerrero, I Campbell

Call me a homer, but this looks impressive, to me. Most are pre-arb or just entering prime, and many are under control for 4 or more years.

[moonslav59]

bWAR per PA

.0117 Bregman

.0095 Rafaela

.0093 Anthony

.0084 Romy

.0081 Abreu

.0078 Narvaez

.0077 Refsnyder

.0069 Duran & Devers

.0059 Story

[moonslav59]

Big Road trip for a team not doing all that well in this split.  

14 of our next 19 games are on the road!

3 @ SDP

3 @ HOU

off

3 v MIA

2 v BAL

off

4 @ NYY

4 @ BAL

Those two days off should hep our starters get some extra rest, as well as our pen.

How we look after these 19 games will be very telling.

[harmony]

16 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Jorge Alcala is only 30. He has a live arm, throws hard and is apparently healthy. Teams are willing to give a guy like that another look. Red Sox fans are not known for their patience.

We all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to the projections of an established system and to the bald opinions of an anonymous dude on the internet.😃

[Bellhorn04]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

bWAR per PA

.0117 Bregman

.0095 Rafaela

.0093 Anthony

.0084 Romy

.0081 Abreu

.0078 Narvaez

.0077 Refsnyder

.0069 Duran & Devers

.0059 Story

Good stat.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

bWAR per PA

.0117 Bregman

.0095 Rafaela

.0093 Anthony

.0084 Romy

.0081 Abreu

.0078 Narvaez

.0077 Refsnyder

.0069 Duran & Devers

.0059 Story

If WAR is an accumulation of overall contributions in all aspects, does this breakdown just show the isolated batting that is calculated towards WAR?

Or is it overall offensive contribution, which includes stolen bases and who knows what else -- since there is never any formula with all specific factors listed for baseball's secret sauce...

... though I once heard Big Mac's special sauce was Thousand Islands dressing (McDonald's, not McGwire's).

[notin]

22 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Wilyer and Jarren have already surpassed their dumb ZiPS projections for 2025. 

That’s because ZiPS is useless. Not as useless as PECOTA.  Steamer is pretty bad, too.

The only good projection system ever developed is the WAPM.  I think we can (and should) all agree on that…

[Maxbialystock]

20 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Alcala didn't clear waivers, claimed by Bloom and the Cardinals. 

Makes sense to me.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If WAR is an accumulation of overall contributions in all aspects, does this breakdown just show the isolated batting that is calculated towards WAR?

Or is it overall offensive contribution, which includes stolen bases and who knows what else -- since there is never any formula with all specific factors listed for baseball's secret sauce...

No, it's overall contribution period including defense and baserunning.

Basing it on PA's makes as much sense as anything. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No, it's overall contribution period including defense and baserunning.

Basing it on PA's makes as much sense as anything. 

Do you say that because basing it on games might be deceptive, if a guy only pinch-hits or pinch-runs once?

Wondering -- would a better gauge of a position player's per game value be WAR per 3 or 4 plate appearances (to reflect participation in full games)?

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Do you say that because basing it on games might be deceptive, if a guy only pinch-hits or pinch-runs once?

Wondering -- would a better gauge of a position player's per game value be WAR per 3 or 4 plate appearances (to reflect participation in full games)?

Yes, games would be no good, especially with platoon guys.

WAR per 4 PA's would simply be moon's numbers multiplied by 4, but that would be fine too.

Platoon guys obviously get a boost to their numbers from not facing same-hand pitching as much.  

 

[Larry Cook]

On 8/7/2025 at 10:32 AM, mvp 78 said:

Wilyer and Jarren have already surpassed their dumb ZiPS projections for 2025. 

Maybe abreau finishes strong and becomes the odd man out/tradebait for the outfield logjam this offseason. &nbsp
 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes, games would be no good, especially with platoon guys.

WAR per 4 PA's would simply be moon's numbers multiplied by 4, but that would be fine too.

Platoon guys obviously get a boost to their numbers from not facing same-hand pitching as much.  

 

Which also needs to be considered when evaluating lefty relievers (even though they face some righty hitters, too, with the 3-batter minimum). 

WAR disfavors relievers because they pitch a lot less innings and record fewer outs than starters. But is WAR per IP even legit, with all the leverage innings, closing... and what about the value of a good starter who sets the tone with a scoreless 1st -- or maybe the most underrated feat in frames 1 through 9: the shutdown inning after a pitcher's teammates just scored.

[Bellhorn04]

31 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Which also needs to be considered when evaluating lefty relievers (even though they face some righty hitters, too, with the 3-batter minimum). 

WAR disfavors relievers because they pitch a lot less innings and record fewer outs than starters. But is WAR per IP even legit, with all the leverage innings, closing... and what about the value of a good starter who sets the tone with a scoreless 1st -- or maybe the most underrated feat in frames 1 through 9: the shutdown inning after a pitcher's teammates just scored.

I believe that WAR for pitchers does account for high leverage vs, low leverage innings, but I'd need to refer that one to a real expert.

 

[moonslav59]

What was Alcala's projection?

[vegasbob]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

What was Alcala's projection?

Partly cloudy with strong wind out to LF.

I don't know if he had options left but the alternative would have been to offer work at Worcester until some sign of control was seen.  With 8 seasons at MLB level, I doubt he was optionable , and maybe Bres has a roster addition  he wants to fill.  I think there are 39 slots on the 40 taken, a few IL-60 guys not counting vs it.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Partly cloudy with strong wind out to LF.

I don't know if he had options left but the alternative would have been to offer work at Worcester until some sign of control was seen.  With 8 seasons at MLB level, I doubt he was optionable , and maybe Bres has a roster addition  he wants to fill.  I think there are 39 slots on the 40 taken, a few IL-60 guys not counting vs it.

He had no options, and that is why he wasn't just demoted, earlier.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

If I could ask Anthony one question, it would be this: Did you read Ted Williams' The Science of Hitting?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

If I could ask Anthony one question, it would be this: Did you read Ted Williams' The Science of Hitting?

I feel it should be mandatory reading for anyone having dreams of making baseball a career.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I feel it should be mandatory reading for anyone having dreams of making baseball a career.

Even dreaming pitchers.

[moonslav59]

Sox are 65-52.

In 2021, we were 66-51, then won 3 in a row, before getting swept by the Yanks to go to 69-54.