A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

On 7/7/2025 at 10:32 AM, Hugh2 said:

A power bat would be nice, but where are you going to put him? I feel like you'd get a marginal upgrade somehwhere at best. 

Of course, Story could always turn back into a pumpkin or an injury could necessitate a need somewhere but I wouldn't undervalue a back up catcher. 

Wong has really regressed this year, and Narvaez will break down at some point given his current usage.  If they lose him things could completely hit a wall and get ugly.  I'd love to jump out in front of that problem and get a good catcher to split duty with Carlos

Narvaez has started 63 games.  There are 12 other catchers who have started 60 or more games this season.  Narvaez has started 63/92 games, which is 68% or a little over 2/3 of the Sox games.  2/3 of 162 games is 110 games.  

 

On 7/7/2025 at 9:47 AM, mvp 78 said:

I'm not sure. Wong should be picking up additional games to lighten the load for Narvaez, but he can't because of how awful he's been. A backup catcher would go a long way to help the Captain of the team. 

 

On 7/7/2025 at 9:21 AM, mvp 78 said:

Toro's OPS last 20 games (since 6/13): 602

 

His OPS in July is .801 and in June was .761.  So I'm not sure where your numbers are coming from.  

[Soxlover]

6 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Narvaez has started 63 games.  There are 12 other catchers who have started 60 or more games this season.  Narvaez has started 63/92 games, which is 68% or a little over 2/3 of the Sox games.  2/3 of 162 games is 110 games.  

 

 

His OPS in July is .801 and in June was .761.  So I'm not sure where your numbers are coming from.  

B-R has .645

early June he was very hot

 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

His OPS in July is .801 and in June was .761.  So I'm not sure where your numbers are coming from.  

Now that they've added last night's game, it's up to 611:

[mvp 78]

If you run the sample without last night, which is what I ran earlier, it comes to 602. 

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

My confidence has never wavered. Breslow has done an excellent job of putting this group together. 

I think this team is much better than the team we fielded in April!! I congratulate bres-slow on making some very good moves!!!  
just need a good young number 2 in the rotation and we are on our way toward being a serious playoff team. 

[vjcsmoke]

Don't look now but we have won 5 games in a row! Our bats have heated up. Roman Anthony starting to get into a groove. His OPS already up to a respectable .750 now instead of the .600 horror show when he was first called up.

Do you guys think we can sneak into the wildcard race and make the playoffs for the first time in ages?

[vjcsmoke]

7 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Narvaez has started 63 games.  There are 12 other catchers who have started 60 or more games this season.  Narvaez has started 63/92 games, which is 68% or a little over 2/3 of the Sox games.  2/3 of 162 games is 110 games.  

 

 

His OPS in July is .801 and in June was .761.  So I'm not sure where your numbers are coming from.  

I'm looking at baseball reference and for 2025 it currently has Toro at .293 BA, .341 OBP, and .792 OPS. Those aren't earth shattering numbers but they are respectable despite the caveat of small sample size, ie only 164 at bats.

Toro's best year was 2023 when he slugged 1.302... in 18 at bats. His career numbers are considerably lower with .229 BA, .292 obp, .365 slg, and 656 OPS.

But who knows he could just be a late bloomer. I don't think Toro is great but at least he's not embarrassing himself with his bat this season.

[harmony]

54 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

Don't look now but we have won 5 games in a row! Our bats have heated up. Roman Anthony starting to get into a groove. His OPS already up to a respectable .750 now instead of the .600 horror show when he was first called up.

Do you guys think we can sneak into the wildcard race and make the playoffs for the first time in ages?

FanGraphs gives the 48-45 Red Sox a 33.6 percent of advancing to the postseason:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

After 93 games last year the Red Sox were 51-42 with a 47.0 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2024-07-11&dateDelta=

[Soxlover]

Is say 33% seems about right.

[Hitch]

On 7/7/2025 at 3:32 PM, Hugh2 said:

A power bat would be nice, but where are you going to put him? I feel like you'd get a marginal upgrade somehwhere at best. 

Of course, Story could always turn back into a pumpkin or an injury could necessitate a need somewhere but I wouldn't undervalue a back up catcher. 

Wong has really regressed this year, and Narvaez will break down at some point given his current usage.  If they lose him things could completely hit a wall and get ugly.  I'd love to jump out in front of that problem and get a good catcher to split duty with Carlos

1B. Toro has done a job there, but that wave can only be ridden so long. We've got Bregman and Yoshida coming back which means Gonzalez can go back to roving cover and we demote Hamilton and Eaton.  We don't want Toro playing every day. If we can get good power there, you go for it. 

[Hitch]

4 hours ago, harmony said:

FanGraphs gives the 48-45 Red Sox a 33.6 percent of advancing to the postseason:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

After 93 games last year the Red Sox were 51-42 with a 47.0 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2024-07-11&dateDelta=

Next 5 games are going to be huge. If we can round off the sweep and then take 3-1 against the Rays, we've vaulted yourself into a position where we pretty much have to go for it (short of a disastrous post All Star run). Lose the last against the Rockies and then go 2-2 or 1-3 against the Rays however, and that stretch after the All Star game looks ominous. 

If the season has shown us anything, it's that we're about to get slapped in the face again. But maybe this time there's real momentum. Hard to gage when you're beating up on these past two teams. 

One huge factor going the Sox's way - the timing of the Yankees squaring off against the Mariners. Exactly what you want when you're beating up on a bad team. 

[Hugh2]

46 minutes ago, Hitch said:

1B. Toro has done a job there, but that wave can only be ridden so long. We've got Bregman and Yoshida coming back which means Gonzalez can go back to roving cover and we demote Hamilton and Eaton.  We don't want Toro playing every day. If we can get good power there, you go for it. 

Toro shouldn't be playing every day, he should be platonning with Gonzalez who can also play other positions all over the diamond.  Gonzalez isn't clogging the roster and you'd have to clear up a space for Toro if you went out and traded for someone anyways. 

Toro is 28, in his prime, and I agree he's probably a one year wonder here but so what I'd ride it all year long.   I think it's perfectly reasonable to bet he can continue hitting better from the left side this year.  His combined efforts with Romy at 1B are already pretty good.  How much better of an upgrade is out there than that????

Marginal at best, and lets be honest, you only have so many bullets to spend.  We aren't going to the grocery store and checking every item off the list and I'd put many other needs well ahead of finding a slugging 1b right now.  If living with a Toro/Romy platoon allows me to go out and get a #2, a reliever and a back up catcher I'm happy to have that at 1B. 

[Hugh2]

The Romy/Toro platoon at 1B is on a 4.6 FWAR 162 game pace.  

Are there even any 5 WAR 1b on the market this trade deadline? Id' always welcome an upgrade, but upgrading a big bat at 1B is very low on my totem pole.  

Of course, the offense has been gelling lately, if this team wants to go deep they should focus on buying pitching. 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Toro shouldn't be playing every day, he should be platonning with Gonzalez who can also play other positions all over the diamond.  Gonzalez isn't clogging the roster and you'd have to clear up a space for Toro if you went out and traded for someone anyways. 

Toro is 28, in his prime, and I agree he's probably a one year wonder here but so what I'd ride it all year long.   I think it's perfectly reasonable to bet he can continue hitting better from the left side this year.  His combined efforts with Romy at 1B are already pretty good.  How much better of an upgrade is out there than that????

Marginal at best, and lets be honest, you only have so many bullets to spend.  We aren't going to the grocery store and checking every item off the list and I'd put many other needs well ahead of finding a slugging 1b right now.  If living with a Toro/Romy platoon allows me to go out and get a #2, a reliever and a back up catcher I'm happy to have that at 1B. 

I think we do it for a few reasons. 

I don't believe a player that has a career batting average of .228 and OPS+ of 85 has suddenly transformed into a player we can rely on, even if he is only platooned. 

Which leads me onto issue number 2. Yoshi is on his way. It looks clear he is mostly going to be platooned at DH with Refsnyder. We can't afford to carry two empty spaces by carrying a platoon at 1st Base as well. Not to mention, we will need to send down Eaton and Hamilton when Bregman and Yoshi are reinstated. Gonzalez is going to be needed as the utility guy/platooner. If he's having to cover Toro already, how does he play for Mayer? Toro would have to play more, which is not a good thing. 

Toro has 0.3 WAR of the total between him and Romy so far. 

Suarez is a name I've seen bandied about a lot. He's a 3rd baseman, so shouldn't be too hard to make the transition. He has 28 HRs already. Is project for 50. Has 2.7 WAR so far. And the Diamondbacks are likely going to have to sell, and he's a free agent at the end of the year. 

I'd only make this happen if we are definitely buyers, but it seems obvious to me the roster is all over the place and needs adjustment. I'm grateful for what Toro has given us so far, but is easily improved upon, and we do need to adjust. 

[Hitch]

It's Jim Bowden, so take this with a huge pinch of salt, but I wonder how accurate his information is in regards to Bregman. This was in response to a question in The Athletic.

19. Will the Red Sox extend Alex Bregman before the trade deadline? … If the Sox go on a winning streak, establishing themselves as buyers at the deadline, what relief pitchers should they target? — Rich K.

The Red Sox would like to extend Bregman before the trade deadline, but it won’t be easy with Scott Boras as his agent. And, I’m hearing, in my conversations throughout the league, if he’s not extended, they could end up trading him to Seattle, Detroit or Milwaukee. But if I’m Boston and your scenario plays out, I would look to add Emmanuel Clase or Ryan Helsley.

[notin]

16 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Narvaez has started 63 games.  There are 12 other catchers who have started 60 or more games this season.  Narvaez has started 63/92 games, which is 68% or a little over 2/3 of the Sox games.  2/3 of 162 games is 110 games.  

 

 

His OPS in July is .801 and in June was .761.  So I'm not sure where your numbers are coming from.  

Toro went 6 for 39 from June 13 through June 27th with a .375 OPS in that stretch.  That slump impacted his numbers…

[notin]

22 minutes ago, Hitch said:

It's Jim Bowden, so take this with a huge pinch of salt, but I wonder how accurate his information is in regards to Bregman. This was in response to a question in The Athletic.

19. Will the Red Sox extend Alex Bregman before the trade deadline? … If the Sox go on a winning streak, establishing themselves as buyers at the deadline, what relief pitchers should they target? — Rich K.

The Red Sox would like to extend Bregman before the trade deadline, but it won’t be easy with Scott Boras as his agent. And, I’m hearing, in my conversations throughout the league, if he’s not extended, they could end up trading him to Seattle, Detroit or Milwaukee. But if I’m Boston and your scenario plays out, I would look to add Emmanuel Clase or Ryan Helsley.

Jim Bowden should be in the loop and has a history that strongly suggests he is in the loop.  But I am not so sure he still is.  He seems to have settled comfortably into his fantasy sports stuff…

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Jim Bowden should be in the loop and has a history that strongly suggests he is in the loop.  But I am not so sure he still is.  He seems to have settled comfortably into his fantasy sports stuff…

Yes, I'm never sure how much credence to give him. As you say, he really should be in the loop, but he has talked some ungodly amounts of s*** at times these past few years. 

I look forward to visiting this board on the day (if) we trade Bregman. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Toro shouldn't be playing every day, he should be platonning with Gonzalez who can also play other positions all over the diamond.  Gonzalez isn't clogging the roster and you'd have to clear up a space for Toro if you went out and traded for someone anyways. 

Toro is 28, in his prime, and I agree he's probably a one year wonder here but so what I'd ride it all year long.   I think it's perfectly reasonable to bet he can continue hitting better from the left side this year.  His combined efforts with Romy at 1B are already pretty good.  How much better of an upgrade is out there than that????

Marginal at best, and lets be honest, you only have so many bullets to spend.  We aren't going to the grocery store and checking every item off the list and I'd put many other needs well ahead of finding a slugging 1b right now.  If living with a Toro/Romy platoon allows me to go out and get a #2, a reliever and a back up catcher I'm happy to have that at 1B. 

Doubtful the Sox get anywhere near a #2 starter at the deadline.  If the plan is to to hope Toro can continue to produce and stay .070 above his career BABIP in hopes that a #2 starter is the alternative, maybe the better plan is to sell Toro while his value is still clearly so high…(Hint: his value isnt high)

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

I think we do it for a few reasons. 

I don't believe a player that has a career batting average of .228 and OPS+ of 85 has suddenly transformed into a player we can rely on, even if he is only platooned. 

Which leads me onto issue number 2. Yoshi is on his way. It looks clear he is mostly going to be platooned at DH with Refsnyder. We can't afford to carry two empty spaces by carrying a platoon at 1st Base as well. Not to mention, we will need to send down Eaton and Hamilton when Bregman and Yoshi are reinstated. Gonzalez is going to be needed as the utility guy/platooner. If he's having to cover Toro already, how does he play for Mayer? Toro would have to play more, which is not a good thing. 

Toro has 0.3 WAR of the total between him and Romy so far. 

Suarez is a name I've seen bandied about a lot. He's a 3rd baseman, so shouldn't be too hard to make the transition. He has 28 HRs already. Is project for 50. Has 2.7 WAR so far. And the Diamondbacks are likely going to have to sell, and he's a free agent at the end of the year. 

I'd only make this happen if we are definitely buyers, but it seems obvious to me the roster is all over the place and needs adjustment. I'm grateful for what Toro has given us so far, but is easily improved upon, and we do need to adjust. 

I don't think there's even anyone on the market who can play 1B who is going to give you more production than we've got already at 1B.  In my opinion it's just wasting bullets. 

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't think there's even anyone on the market who can play 1B who is going to give you more production than we've got already at 1B.  In my opinion it's just wasting bullets. 

As I mentioned, this is only in a 'buy' scenario, as there's no point otherwise, but you don't think Suarez does that? While freeing up one of the clog points in our roster?

I don't think we can continue to compete with rotating platoons at DH and 1st Base. 

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

As I mentioned, this is only in a 'buy' scenario, as there's no point otherwise, but you don't think Suarez does that? While freeing up one of the clog points in our roster?

I don't think we can continue to compete with rotating platoons at DH and 1st Base. 

We were 5th in MLB in OPS in June and have been 2nd in July.  With guys getting healthy and youngsters growing and coming into their own I don't see the offense as first priority. 

Meanwhile, we've been in the bottom half of almost every pitching category.  Pitching is more of an issue than hitting. 

I think this team is good, but I don't think they're so good that you empty the bank.  So therefore you have limited bullets.  I would spend them on pitching. 

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

Don't look now but we have won 5 games in a row! Our bats have heated up. Roman Anthony starting to get into a groove. His OPS already up to a respectable .750 now instead of the .600 horror show when he was first called up.

Do you guys think we can sneak into the wildcard race and make the playoffs for the first time in ages?

What playing the Nats and the Rocks can do to a team. 

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

Doubtful the Sox get anywhere near a #2 starter at the deadline.  If the plan is to to hope Toro can continue to produce and stay .070 above his career BABIP in hopes that a #2 starter is the alternative, maybe the better plan is to sell Toro while his value is still clearly so high…(Hint: his value isnt high)

🤐

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, Hitch said:

As I mentioned, this is only in a 'buy' scenario, as there's no point otherwise, but you don't think Suarez does that? While freeing up one of the clog points in our roster?

I don't think we can continue to compete with rotating platoons at DH and 1st Base. 

Are you talking about Eugenio Suarez?

It's just odd that you think Toro is going to regress to the mean and not Suarez? who's had an OPS about .100 NORTH of his career average.  Why should we believe he won't and Toro will?

It's not like he's younger or anything.  And his defense is not that great. And as I've pointed out the Toro/Romy platoon has performed well.  Suarez is only an upgrade if those guys regress and Suarez does not.  

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What playing the Nats and the Rocks can do to a team. 

The only thing is, beating up on bad teams is something the Sox had not been doing before this.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

The only thing is, beating up on bad teams is something the Sox had not been doing before this.

I'm not complaining! I'm just not expecting this to continue. These two teams are pretty freakin' awful. 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not complaining! I'm just not expecting this to continue. These two teams are pretty freakin' awful. 

The Yankees and Dodgers get to beat up on crappy teams and pad their stats too.  At least where finally doing that too now. 

[Hitch]

21 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

We were 5th in MLB in OPS in June and have been 2nd in July.  With guys getting healthy and youngsters growing and coming into their own I don't see the offense as first priority. 

Meanwhile, we've been in the bottom half of almost every pitching category.  Pitching is more of an issue than hitting. 

I think this team is good, but I don't think they're so good that you empty the bank.  So therefore you have limited bullets.  I would spend them on pitching. 

 

Again, I'm only discussing this in the case of a buy now scenario. I actually think we will be better off selling (as I don't think this run lasts past today), but in this scenario, if we are going for it, we have plenty of bullets, and should be looking at multiple avenues. Not least (and none of your replies have addressed this point) because the roster needs adjusting. We can not have Gonzalez as an utility man if he is platooning with Toro and Toro is no good to us playing full time. Hamilton and Eaton are disappearing soon with Yoshi and Bregman coming. This needs to be addressed (unless we're selling).

Pitching is a necessity for sure. Altering the make up of the roster and bringing some RH pop should be another.  

 

17 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Are you talking about Eugenio Suarez?

It's just odd that you think Toro is going to regress to the mean and not Suarez? who's had an OPS about .100 NORTH of his career average.  Why should we believe he won't and Toro will?

It's not like he's younger or anything.  And his defense is not that great. And as I've pointed out the Toro/Romy platoon has performed well.  Suarez is only an upgrade if those guys regress and Suarez does not.  

Suarez has a career OPS of .793 and an OPS+ of 112. He's pull heavy and would suit Fenway perfectly. And he'd play every day. You take Suarez all day long, obviously, especially the way our roster is currently aligned. 

 

[Hugh2]

29 minutes ago, Hitch said:

 

Again, I'm only discussing this in the case of a buy now scenario. I actually think we will be better off selling (as I don't think this run lasts past today), but in this scenario, if we are going for it, we have plenty of bullets, and should be looking at multiple avenues. Not least (and none of your replies have addressed this point) because the roster needs adjusting. We can not have Gonzalez as an utility man if he is platooning with Toro and Toro is no good to us playing full time. Hamilton and Eaton are disappearing soon with Yoshi and Bregman coming. This needs to be addressed (unless we're selling).

Pitching is a necessity for sure. Altering the make up of the roster and bringing some RH pop should be another.  

 

Suarez has a career OPS of .793 and an OPS+ of 112. He's pull heavy and would suit Fenway perfectly. And he'd play every day. You take Suarez all day long, obviously, especially the way our roster is currently aligned. 

 

I would kindly disagree, and I believe I have addressed it.  But to reiterate past points I have made I would prioritize starting pitching, relief pitching, and a 2nd catcher to split with Narvaez at the deadline.

The Toro/Romy platoon at 1b has netted us a .965 OPS at 1B.  If they're platooned right than Suarez is a downgrade.  If regression comes into play then it's a marginal upgrade AT BEST. 

I'm sorry, I think people just get stuck on the long ball.  Suarez swings hard, but the reality is I don't think he makes us that much better.  Or at the veyr least, he does not make this team as better as getting pitching would.  The team should buy pitching. 

The offense will be fine. Maybe get a catcher who is serviceable behind the plate who can hit, why not upgrade there? Wong is literally the worse offensive player in baseball this year so you'd think if you wanted to upgrade the offense you'd look there.