A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

His DWAR is +0.6, ranked 11th in MLB.

But I would be delighted with Story at 2b and Mayer at SS, his natural position.  Story was terrific at 2b his first season with the Sox.   

Which way western man? Fangraphs? Bref? 

[mvp 78]

There's no way he's 11th in MLB (maybe for SS). 

[mvp 78]

 

[Maxbialystock]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't think there's anything to be learned from which teams we've played well or crappy against.

If someone told you we'd be 9-3 against the Yanks & Rays at this point, you'd think we'd be 5 games up in the division.

 

Dead on.  This team was and is a mystery.  I like the lineup despite the loss of Devers--because Abreu, Bregman, and Yoshida should make up for him--and I definitely like the pitching. 

But based on first half, hitting or pitching or both could go down the drain.  Devers, I hasten to add, was a perfect fit at DH and hitting before Bregman.  Cora did that.  But he couldn't fix the pitching.  

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Right now I'm fine with a potential infield of Bregman at 3b, Mayer SS, Story 2b, and Toro 1b.  You love defense, so do I need to remind you that Bregman, Mayer, and Story have all looked good on defense so far?  The four infielders' overall WAR's, in order, are +2.9, +0.6 (in 21 games), +1.1, and +0.4.  

I don't like paying someone else to take Story, not when we don't have a second baseman remotely as good (although Hamilton is good on D).  Campbell can't field and is struggling at the plate.  Rafaela might do, but he's awfully good in CF.  Let's see what Cora does tonight with Abreu back and Anthony getting lots RF time.  If the outfield is Doran, Abreu, and Anthony, maybe Rafaela goes to the infield--or, as you opined, backup for both infield and outfield.  

 

I mentioned 2B as a reason not to trade Story. I fully understand your point, and am not sure we'd be much better with the trade, except financially after 2025.

I'd much prefer a deal like Grissom & Mullins for Hoskins.

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

 

That took awhile.  Neither the infield or outfield will miss him--nor the lineup.

Meanwhile, we now have four outfielders, all of whom have a claim on a spot--Abreu, Duran, Rafaela, and Anthony.   Rafaela is hitting and defending better than Anthony, but Anthony ist der wunderkind.  

[Maxbialystock]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I mentioned 2B as a reason not to trade Story. I fully understand your point, and am not sure we'd be much better with the trade, except financially after 2025.

I'd much prefer a deal like Grissom & Mullins for Hoskins.

Story has grown on me this season.  I think his steadiness at SS has really helped.  I remember one play when it think Toro was playing 3b and lost an easy pop fly.  Story realized it and moved way over to get it.  Plus I like him on the double plays.  And maybe his hitting is getting better.  He's still not worth his salary, but he's worth some of it.

Thanks to your point about Yoshida/Ref at DH, I know understand better why Breslow was such a jerk about Raffy at DH with 1b open.  He didn't need to save 1b.  He needed to get more for paying Raffy and Yoshida $48M to be the DH.  And, oh by the way, both Story and Yoshida are on Chaim Bloom.  Breslow might a ruthless, uncaring maniac, but he's our maniac--and, as General Westmoreland famously said, I see light at the end of the tunnel.  

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Which way western man? Fangraphs? Bref? 

espn, which of course makes me suspect.

 

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

 

I am predicting penrod will be in an all star game in the future. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Story has grown on me this season.  I think his steadiness at SS has really helped.  I remember one play when it think Toro was playing 3b and lost an easy pop fly.  Story realized it and moved way over to get it.  Plus I like him on the double plays.  And maybe his hitting is getting better.  He's still not worth his salary, but he's worth some of it.

Thanks to your point about Yoshida/Ref at DH, I know understand better why Breslow was such a jerk about Raffy at DH with 1b open.  He didn't need to save 1b.  He needed to get more for paying Raffy and Yoshida $48M to be the DH.  And, oh by the way, both Story and Yoshida are on Chaim Bloom.  Breslow might a ruthless, uncaring maniac, but he's our maniac--and, as General Westmoreland famously said, I see light at the end of the tunnel.  

I've kinda written off Yoshida for 2025. I'm looking at a Duran/Refsnyder DH as our best solution for this moment, anyway.

v R: Duran DH, Anthony LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF

vs L: Refsnyder DH, Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Anthony RF (I'd also be okay with leaving Anthony in LF, FT and having Duran in CF vs lefties, with Rafaela in RF.)

When Bregman returns, we need to decide on who plays SS and who plays 2B. I'd go with Mayer SS/Story 2B, but that could wait until 2026.

Someone suggested Romy/Yoshida at DH or maybe even think of Romy/Toro at DH, if we add a 1Bman.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I am predicting penrod will be in an all star game in the future. 

You mean in the stands watching?

[jdc69]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

Dead on.  This team was and is a mystery.  I like the lineup despite the loss of Devers--because Abreu, Bregman, and Yoshida should make up for him--and I definitely like the pitching. 

But based on first half, hitting or pitching or both could go down the drain.  Devers, I hasten to add, was a perfect fit at DH and hitting before Bregman.  Cora did that.  But he couldn't fix the pitching.  

I think he did fix the pitching by letting them pitch deeper into the games. And you cant necessarily say them doing well was the reason for letting them go longer because Cora was replacing pitchers too early, earlier in the season, when they were doing well and that's when the bullpen screwed it all up. Once they let the pitchers pitch later in the game the bullpen would wrap up the game and put a nice bow on top.

To me that's why I dislike the trade. We get success and trade Devers. Why cant we have Bregman, Yoshida, Abreu AND Devers?

[moonslav59]

Many managers pull starters early in April, and gradually increase pitch counts and IP'd. 

We started the season with something like our 11th or 12th SP'er on the December depth chart (Newcomb) as well as maybe #8 or 9 guy, Fitts. 

Houck was stinking up the place just about day one and every day afterwards, which further taxed our pen. Buehler has not been good, either.

Our staff has a 93 ERA-, so far (7th in the AL.)

Our 3.86 FIP is 4th in the AL and 0.09 from 3rd.

Our 0.95 HR/9 rate is second in the AL.

These are not numbers you see from a mismanaged pitching staff missing 3 of their best SP'ers for all or most of the season, so far.

15 missed starts: Crawford, Sandoval

(Wink & Murphy do not count, but were rotation depth)

7 missed: Houck

6 missed: Giolito

2-3 missed: Bello & Buehler

It's too bad Cora ruined a pitcher like Dobbins.

The pen was widely viewed as our preseason weakest link. It is the big area where managers often get blamed for "pitching the wrong guy," often when no better guys were available.

2nd in pen fWAR in AL (81)

2nd in ERA- (5th in ERA)

3rd in FIP- (83)

FIRE the BUM!

 

 

[Larry Cook]

The loss of slaten really hurts our bullpen. 
 

we got to come up with a better solution than Kelly!!!!  
 

bres-slow has to work the phones 

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

The loss of slaten really hurts our bullpen. 
 

we got to come up with a better solution than Kelly!!!!  
 

bres-slow has to work the phones 

He did: wait for Hicks to come off the IL or for Harrison to be promoted.

[Larry Cook]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He did: wait for Hicks to come off the IL or for Harrison to be promoted.

I was really hoping for an improvement over what Kelly brings 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I was really hoping for an improvement over what Kelly brings 

Hicks is better than our 8th pen arm for sure and may be better than our 5, 6 and 7. He might challenge Weissert for the 4 slot.

Harrison, if he doesn't take Buehler's job, will slot in nicely at 5, 6 or 7.

Our pen is better, after the trade. 

Brez needs to be on the phone for a #2 SP'er and a big bat.

[moonslav59]

All the night's games are over.

The current standings:

AL East

-- NYY

-1.5 TBR

-3.0 TOR

-4.0 BOS

Wild Card

+2.5 TBR

+1.0 TOR

-- BOS

-0.5 SEA

-1.5 KCR

-1.5 C

-2.0 MIN

-2.5 TEX

-3.0 LAA

[oldtimer]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I mentioned 2B as a reason not to trade Story. I fully understand your point, and am not sure we'd be much better with the trade, except financially after 2025.

I'd much prefer a deal like Grissom & Mullins for Hoskins.

I think Brez is more likely to take action than his predecessors. Perhaps he has been given more leeway to fix the team. Certainly Bregman, Chapman, Crochet have been notable gets. Stealing a formidable defensive catcher who may be one reason the pitching is looking better and the guy can hit too looks smart. Brez is not afraid to make moves, some controversial.

Early on I thought we should bring up our top prospects  and give them a shot. He has done that, if belatedly. I was ambivalent about Devers. Paying the big bucks for a DH, especially on a long term basis didn't appear to be a winning strategy. After Devers difficulties with management, Brez and ownership decided to take action. Sure, there is risk but it may prove to be a good decision. I was for getting Yoshida off our books but his contract and injury status made that impossible.

Now lets see if Brez can pull another rabbit out of the hat and sign a capable first baseman. It's no longer unrealistic to see the Sox as a wild card team. 

[Nick]

This was my response to Is Breslow already in a hot seat on another site?

 

My guess is John Henry thinks Breslow is doing a good job.

 

Breslow brought in an outside firm to go through the organizational personnel and fired over 50 non-essential employees, including several scouts as results. I bet John Henry loved getting rid of bloated Sox personnel. 

 

If NOTHING else trading for Crochet and extending him for 6 years beginning 2026 was a big deal. That's the biggest leap in improving our organization. 

 

I really don't care that Devers is gone. His days were numbered as soon as Bregman was signed, another great get by Breslow.

 

It was 50% luck I'm sure but signing Chapman to a 1 year deal at $10.75M was another shrewd move. (you just never know how the relievers turn out. just look at Hendriks)

 

Breslow kept insisting that Sox needed a clear lane to bring up Anthony. Devers' trade more than anything else allowed that to happen.

 

He is improving the Sox bit by bit. Each player has a value attached to him. Devers playing a position at $30M is lot more palpable for me than a $30M DH despite the fact that we did it to him. No fault of Devers.

 

Why in the hell would JH fire Breslow?

[Larry Cook]

The needs are obvious, a number 2 rotation pitcher, a number 3 rotation pitcher, and maybe another bullpen arm! 

the trade pieces and prospects we have are numerous and talented! The only three untouchables are Anthony, Mayer and crochet! 
 

I think bres-slow can add the missing pieces and keep building the  chemistry this team is developing getting better with every player he adds!! 

[Maxbialystock]

20 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

There's no way he's 11th in MLB (maybe for SS). 

ESPN shows Walls 1.9, Pena 1.3, Allen 1.2, Betts 1.2, Neto 1.1, Swanson 1.1, Witt .9, Seagar .9, Cabellero .9, Areias .9, Volpe .7, and Triolo and Story at .6.  

[Maxbialystock]

16 minutes ago, Nick said:

This was my response to Is Breslow already in a hot seat on another site?

 

My guess is John Henry thinks Breslow is doing a good job.

 

Breslow brought in an outside firm to go through the organizational personnel and fired over 50 non-essential employees, including several scouts as results. I bet John Henry loved getting rid of bloated Sox personnel. 

 

If NOTHING else trading for Crochet and extending him for 6 years beginning 2026 was a big deal. That's the biggest leap in improving our organization. 

 

I really don't care that Devers is gone. His days were numbered as soon as Bregman was signed, another great get by Breslow.

 

It was 50% luck I'm sure but signing Chapman to a 1 year deal at $10.75M was another shrewd move. (you just never know how the relievers turn out. just look at Hendriks)

 

Breslow kept insisting that Sox needed a clear lane to bring up Anthony. Devers' trade more than anything else allowed that to happen.

 

He is improving the Sox bit by bit. Each player has a value attached to him. Devers playing a position at $30M is lot more palpable for me than a $30M DH despite the fact that we did it to him. No fault of Devers.

 

Why in the hell would JH fire Breslow?

Agree Breslow is the man.  Agree Devers had to go.  Don't forget Yoshida's being paid $18.6M and the only position he can play is DH, so it was really $48.6 M for a DH.  Breslow has made some mistakes, but who doesn't?  Overall, as you say, the team is going in the right direction despite the absence of Bregman since May 23.  

 

[Nick]

We're almost at half way point.

Rafaela has already walked 14 times this year. He only walked 15 time all last year. I just think it's pretty funny.

It's pretty sad for ME that a veteran making $22M and struggling a bit has walked only 14 times this year. You know who it is. Ugh.

 

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, oldtimer said:

I think Brez is more likely to take action than his predecessors. Perhaps he has been given more leeway to fix the team. Certainly Bregman, Chapman, Crochet have been notable gets. Stealing a formidable defensive catcher who may be one reason the pitching is looking better and the guy can hit too looks smart. Brez is not afraid to make moves, some controversial.

Early on I thought we should bring up our top prospects  and give them a shot. He has done that, if belatedly. I was ambivalent about Devers. Paying the big bucks for a DH, especially on a long term basis didn't appear to be a winning strategy. After Devers difficulties with management, Brez and ownership decided to take action. Sure, there is risk but it may prove to be a good decision. I was for getting Yoshida off our books but his contract and injury status made that impossible.

Now lets see if Brez can pull another rabbit out of the hat and sign a capable first baseman. It's no longer unrealistic to see the Sox as a wild card team. 

Agree Breslow has made a lot of good moves. I frankly don't care about 1b.  

The biggest issue is whether the pitching can hold up--despite the recent run of great starts.  Dobbins stunk last night.  Bello is up and down, but is also our 2d best starter after Crochet.  Giolito with 2 straight excellent starts, is also up and down.  Buehler stinks.  If one or two good pitchers, especially starters, become available, they should be the first priority

Last night notwithstanding, the Sox hitting has been sporadic without Bregman (and even with Devers).  However, I'm fine with the lineup we have and am sure it will improve when Bregman returns.  Also, Yoshida/Ref at DH would be a decent combo.  

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

ESPN shows Walls 1.9, Pena 1.3, Allen 1.2, Betts 1.2, Neto 1.1, Swanson 1.1, Witt .9, Seagar .9, Cabellero .9, Areias .9, Volpe .7, and Triolo and Story at .6.  

For SS only?

[Maxbialystock]

22 minutes ago, Nick said:

We're almost at half way point.

Rafaela has already walked 14 times this year. He only walked 15 time all last year. I just think it's pretty funny.

It's pretty sad for ME that a veteran making $22M and struggling a bit has walked only 14 times this year. You know who it is. Ugh.

 

With Devers gone, he is 4th in total bases, 3d in dingers, tied with Duran for most rbi's, 2d in games played, and plays a solid SS.  When Bregman returns, he will be a solid second baseman with Mayer at SS.  He ain't worth $22M/year, but he is contributing.  

[Maxbialystock]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

For SS only?

Yes.  Has he played anywhere else this season?  

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

26 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

With Devers gone, he is 4th in total bases, 3d in dingers, tied with Duran for most rbi's, 2d in games played, and plays a solid SS.  When Bregman returns, he will be a solid second baseman with Mayer at SS.  He ain't worth $22M/year, but he is contributing.  

That doesn't mean he's doing well, it just shows the lack of production from the rest of the roster.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, oldtimer said:

I think Brez is more likely to take action than his predecessors. Perhaps he has been given more leeway to fix the team. Certainly Bregman, Chapman, Crochet have been notable gets. Stealing a formidable defensive catcher who may be one reason the pitching is looking better and the guy can hit too looks smart. Brez is not afraid to make moves, some controversial.

Early on I thought we should bring up our top prospects  and give them a shot. He has done that, if belatedly. I was ambivalent about Devers. Paying the big bucks for a DH, especially on a long term basis didn't appear to be a winning strategy. After Devers difficulties with management, Brez and ownership decided to take action. Sure, there is risk but it may prove to be a good decision. I was for getting Yoshida off our books but his contract and injury status made that impossible.

Now lets see if Brez can pull another rabbit out of the hat and sign a capable first baseman. It's no longer unrealistic to see the Sox as a wild card team. 

I don't see Brez making a deal just to look like he's addressing the hole on our lineup. He may be content with Toro-Romy at 1B, and since they are doing as well as Casas, when healthy (minu the power) I cans ee why he's waiting.

While I do think the kids could have been called up sooner, I wouldn't use the word "belatedly." We had some other players worthy of playing time, and several were doing real well, especially the OF vs adding Anthony.

The DH slot had Devers, so there was no "give" there in finding playing time. I think the initial boost KC gave to the team over the first few games, made us all think Mayer and Anthony would do the same. Several felt both deserved a look before KC.

I like how Brez has handled it. I'm bummed we still have no obvious 2B solution after years of attempts, including a trade of a CYA winner for a 2Bman. Downs was also the great hope in the Betts trade.  If you want to count 2020 and 2025 as one full season, we have a 2.1 fWAR at 2B since 2018. That's 7 seasons at about a 0.3 fWAR. The stat line:

.241 13 66 (.298 OBP/.366 SLG/ .663 OPS and minus Defense: -19 DRS and -29 OAA.) We don't have a single 2Bman that had more than 550 PAs at 2B in 8 seasons combined! The cycling and recycling has been like a merry-go-round of ineptitude or mediocrity, at best. The short stint by Story was the only highlight, while Holt and Arroyo gave us "meh" play. Here are our 2Bmen since 2018. Note the PAs and think of their defense.

544 Arroyo .739

412 Holt .763 (was needed at other positions or could have had most)

396 Story .737

375 Nunez .615

350 EValdez .651

304 Kike .901 (did well for a half season)

.254 Chavis .711 (We'd die for .711, now.)

227 KC .685 (8th in PAs is telling)

197 DHam .546

100-140: Kinsler, Marco, Marwin, Grissom & Reyes

50-99: Arauz, Peraza, Urias, Romy, Iggy

20-49: Y Sanchez, Sogard, Westbrook, Lin, owings, Pedey, Turner, Downs, Ceddanne

10-19: Chang, Lopez, Phillips, Wong & Gasper

God awful bunch, here.