A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Nick said:

Putting on John Henry's hat.

There was an article that mentioned Red Sox and the Orioles as two teams having good operational income on the baseball front. I was bit surprised by mentioning of the Orioles. So maybe that was the more of reason we decided to spend money last winter. I have no explanation for the Orioles new ownership being cheap.

We gained about $3M for 2026 by trading Devers' contract with Crochet's new contract that starts in 2026.

Buehler's $21M won't be coming back. Maybe we fill that internally, Pat Sandoval is already being paid $9M for 2026 (it's already baked in for 2026 tax payroll). Say Crochet, Bello, Dobbins, Kutter, Houck, Kyle Harrison, Fitts, Criswell and maybe Tolle and Early will materialize during 2026. Keeping Giolito may end up eating up all of savings from Buehler. Kutter and Houck may get a slight arbitration raises to combined $10M.

The big ticket item will be replacing Chapman's $11M contract. I would love to see us sign him to a multiple year deal.

So assuming Buehler, Giolito and Chapman all leave, that gives us about $30M to acquire a closer and/or another high level starter. Arbitration raises to Houck and Kutter will be covered by leftover from getting rid of Dever's contract, net of Crochet raise. 

Jordan Hicks from Giants will add $10M to our payroll for 2026. It's nothing if we don't sign a closer and go internally. 

It's possible we'll have Slaten, Whitlock, Weissert along with Houck and Kutter as possible back end relievers. 

This is the area I'll give Breslow much credit. He has given us many options.

Do we go with another Buehler type signing for 2026 and then go all out for Boras client Tarik Skubal in 2026? That's what I would do. Downside is Detroit does have money to retain him. 

I think we can sign Cease, Helsley and Hoskins (RHB) or Naylor (LHB) at 1B and not be too far over the tax line, assuming Gio does not trigger the 3rd year option, and we say good bye to Buehler, Chapman, Wilson & Refsnyder.

I'm not projecting any trade, but one almost has to happen. For argument's sake, let's say we trade Casas for a prospect, keep Bregman and sign Cease, Helsley & Hoskins. This could be our 26:

1. L Duran DH/LF

2. R Bregman 3B

3. L Abreu RF/R Anthony RF

4. R Hoskins 1B

5. L Mayer SS or 2B

6. R Narvaez C 

7. L Anthony LF/  R Romy DH

8. Story 2B or SS (Campbell?)

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Campbell, Romy or Abreu, Jh Garcia/DHam?

SP: Crochet, Cease, Sandoval, Bello, Dobbins (Crawford, Houck, Harrison, Fitts)

RP: Helsley, Whitlock, Hicks, Slaten, Houck, Crawford, Harrison, Weissert 

(Bernardino, Fitts, Kelly, Guerrero, Burdi, Murphy, Perales)

 

[iortiz]

They just optioned Campbell instead of F’ Hamilton. WTF?

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, iortiz said:

They just optioned Campbell instead of F’ Hamilton. WTF?

Hamilton doesn't need an option to AAA, he needs a DFA. Should have traded him last offseason when they had offers. 😑

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, iortiz said:

They just optioned Campbell instead of F’ Hamilton. WTF?

They must have felt KC would not be playing enough to further his growth. I didn't see this coming, until Bregman returned. 

They have not announced who will be promoted.

To me, the WTF is keeping Eaton over KC. I have DHam>Eaton.

[iortiz]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Hamilton doesn't need an option to AAA, he needs a DFA. Should have traded him last offseason when they had offers. 😑

Yeah!!!
 

What Campbell needs is as much MLB ABs as possible. I don’t care if he ends up hitting Mendoza this season. They extended him for a reason not to mention he can play several positions. I thought they were trying to develop him. WTF?

[mvp 78]

Just now, iortiz said:

Yeah!!!
 

What Campbell needs is as much MLB ABs as possible. I don’t care if he ends up hitting Mendoza this season. They extended him for a reason not to mention he can play several positions. I thought they were trying to develop him. WTF?

If he mashes in AAA, does it mean he's ready again? IDK. We'll have to find out again. I'm not sure it's confidence so much as he can't pull the ball anymore. Seems like it's more of a hitting coach thing. 

[iortiz]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They must have felt KC would not be playing enough to further his growth. I didn't see this coming, until Bregman returned. 

They have not announced who will be promoted.

To me, the WTF is keeping Eaton over KC. I have DHam>Eaton.

Seems like Cora loves Hamilton. Guy can’t get on base to safe his life. 

[moonslav59]

DHam had a 17 game stretch in 2024 where he hit .816.

.139 OPS in first 9 games.

.191 OPS in last 23 games.

He got on base 95 times in 2024 and stole 33 bases. I think that is why we kept him around. He also played plus defense at 2B, where we have hurt badly on O & D for many years.

[iortiz]

2024 is way gone. He’s been nothing but trash, and he is sloppy at defense and even at the paths. He’s nothing but a bum. 

[iortiz]

Also, 17 games in 2024 is the reason we are keeping him? It’s a half a month sample Lol 

[Larry Cook]

Is yoshida being activated???

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, iortiz said:

Yeah!!!
 

What Campbell needs is as much MLB ABs as possible. I don’t care if he ends up hitting Mendoza this season. They extended him for a reason not to mention he can play several positions. I thought they were trying to develop him. WTF?

Because the big club playing Campbell every day is costing them wins, and they're trying to make the playoffs.

[Nick]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They must have felt KC would not be playing enough to further his growth. I didn't see this coming, until Bregman returned. 

They have not announced who will be promoted.

To me, the WTF is keeping Eaton over KC. I have DHam>Eaton.

Abreu

[Larry Cook]

34 minutes ago, Nick said:

Abreu

A lot of outfielders on the roster now 

[Nick]

11 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

A lot of outfielders on the roster now 

I think Moon forgot that Abreu was coming off IL.

So they sent Campbell down in lieu of Eaton?

 

[notin]

48 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Is yoshida being activated???

Abreu.

Yoshida isnt eligible for activation until July 19th-ish…

[Larry Cook]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Abreu.

Yoshida isnt eligible for activation until July 19th-ish…

Wow!!  Bregman should beat him back to the roster 

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Nick said:

I think Moon forgot that Abreu was coming off IL.

So they sent Campbell down in lieu of Eaton?

Campbell is struggling but they want him to keep playing.  No one cares if Hamilton or Eaton sit on the bench.

If Abreu is activated, does this mean Rafaela to 2b?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, iortiz said:

2024 is way gone. He’s been nothing but trash, and he is sloppy at defense and even at the paths. He’s nothing but a bum. 

There is no need to stretch the truth. Citing the .495 OPS is plenty.

He's still a plus on D at 2B, something we have not had at 2B for years. He's still a plus at baserunning.

Why does someone have to totally suck at everything to not deserve a roster slot?

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

Campbell is struggling but they want him to keep playing.  No one cares if Hamilton or Eaton sit on the bench.

If Abreu is activated, does this mean Rafaela to 2b?

No. It means Duran/Ref will DH (maybe Anthony and Abreu, some.)

[moonslav59]

Combining two injury reports...

Bregman underwent testing Wednesday and the results will determine the next step. (Out until at least July 1st. I gotta think after ASB)

Houck is currently rehabbing. (July 4)

Crawford threw a pen session Tuesday and will again on Friday. (July 10)

Hicks will throw to live batting practice, today. (June 24)

Yoshida has been throwing from LF to 2B since Thursday. Not sure what this has to do with being a DH. (JUN 30...LOL)

Slaten has not begun throwing, yet. (July 1, but no way.)

Hendriks is playing catch (6/27?) , while Burdi will begin rehab, this week. (6/19?)

Murphy (June 28)

Wink (July 18)

Sandoval (Aug 1)

 

[Nick]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

Campbell is struggling but they want him to keep playing.  No one cares if Hamilton or Eaton sit on the bench.

If Abreu is activated, does this mean Rafaela to 2b?

I really don't think so. Both Abreu and Anthony will have chance to DH. They seem to love Rafaela's defense in center field where he's thought of as 'elite'.

Not really sure but if would ease the congestion if he does move there. Then we won't have to see Hamilton.

Anthony/Duran/Abreu/Rafaela (2B) versus Duran/Rafaela/Anthony/Abreu (DH)/Hamilton (2B)?

[Nick]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Combining two injury reports...

Bregman underwent testing Wednesday and the results will determine the next step. (Out until at least July 1st. I gotta think after ASB)

Houck is currently rehabbing. (July 4)

Crawford threw a pen session Tuesday and will again on Friday. (July 10)

Hicks will throw to live batting practice, today. (June 24)

Yoshida has been throwing from LF to 2B since Thursday. Not sure what this has to do with being a DH. (JUN 30...LOL)

Slaten has not begun throwing, yet. (July 1, but no way.)

Hendriks is playing catch (6/27?) , while Burdi will begin rehab, this week. (6/19?)

Murphy (June 28)

Wink (July 18)

Sandoval (Aug 1)

 

Call the 4077 MASH unit.

[notin]

15 minutes ago, Nick said:

I really don't think so. Both Abreu and Anthony will have chance to DH. They seem to love Rafaela's defense in center field where he's thought of as 'elite'.

Not really sure but if would ease the congestion if he does move there. Then we won't have to see Hamilton.

Anthony/Duran/Abreu/Rafaela (2B) versus Duran/Rafaela/Anthony/Abreu (DH)/Hamilton (2B)?

 Unless there is another move (Eaton down, Grissom up?), the only 2bs on the roster are Hamilton, Rafaela Toro, and Romy.  Since Toro and Romy are handling 3b/1b in a platoon, that really just leaves Hamilton and Rafaela.  So, Hamilton.  With no platoon unless Coraputs Wong in there.  (Wong does have MiLB experience at 2b from way back in his Dodger days.)

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Nick said:

I really don't think so. Both Abreu and Anthony will have chance to DH. They seem to love Rafaela's defense in center field where he's thought of as 'elite'.

Not really sure but if would ease the congestion if he does move there. Then we won't have to see Hamilton.

Anthony/Duran/Abreu/Rafaela (2B) versus Duran/Rafaela/Anthony/Abreu (DH)/Hamilton (2B)?

Maybe Abreu DHs some as he returns from rehab, but Anthony and Abreu are better on D than Duran and Refsnyder.

I think Duran and Ref get most of the DH time.

v R

LF: Anthony

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: Duran

v L

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony

DH: Refsnyder

[Larry Cook]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe Abreu DHs some as he returns from rehab, but Anthony and Abreu are better on D than Duran and Refsnyder.

I think Duran and Ref get most of the DH time.

v R

LF: Anthony

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: Duran

v L

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony

DH: Refsnyder

Abreau was not exactly tearing it up pre injury!!! 
 

[moonslav59]

Just now, Larry Cook said:

Abreau was not exactly tearing it up pre injury!!! 
 

He is pretty streaky.

.324 OPS in his previous 23 PAs

.519 in the 43 PAs before that.

.456 combing the two (last 66 PAs)

He was at .694 the 28 PAs before those 66.

.529 last 94

.980 his first 140 PAs

[Larry Cook]

Let’s hope he starts hot for us! We need some offense 

[moonslav59]

If Sean Murphy could learn to play 1B and be the back-up catcher to Narvaez, would ATL do this trade?

To ATL:

Story ($25M x 2 + $25M option for 2028 w $5M buyout) Basically $55M/2 or $75M/3

$10M a year for '27 & '28 plus $5M for buyout in '29= $25M

Wong (3 arbs left)

Winckowski (3 arbs left)

To BOS:

Murphy ($15M x 3 + $15M option for 2029- no buyout)

Ozuna ($16M '26 then FA)

The money is about the same for 2025, 2026 and 2027. ATL saves $15M in 2028.

We get Ozuna to DH for 2025 and Murphy to back-up Narvaez and hopefully play 1B for the remainder of his deal. We replace Story's money with Murphy's, counting the money going to ATL. We open up the SS slot for Mayer. 2B would be open for Campbell/Romy and eventually Arias/Romero.

It would be nice to get Sale back, but I doubt we could pull that off.