A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[dgalehouse]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Gio offered hope? He had become a HR Derby pitcher.🤭🙈

The excuse was that he had " marital problems ".  There is always an excuse on TalkSox. 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Gio offered hope? He had become a HR Derby pitcher.🤭🙈

He offered more hope than Kluber and Richards did.

He actually was a decent pitcher just a half season before we signed him. That did offer a smidgeon on hope, IMO. I guess some could claim Kluber & Richards offer some slight hopes, too, but to me Gio offered more (and cost more, too.)

Obviously, that hope never came true. We all know it did not work.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

The excuse was that he had " marital problems ".  There is always an excuse on TalkSox. 

Whatever people used for an excuse, Gio pitched pretty well over his first 19 starts of 2023. He had a 3.45 ERA and was pitching better over his 7 starts (2.45 ERA,) then the wheels came off in a big way.

No doubt, wheels coming off so extremely should have raised major red flags. For that reason, I did not like the signing, but to say the guy offered no hope, at all, is far-fetched to me. Sure, we saw him miss a full season and then suck on his return, so it's easy to say it was obvious he never had any hope, in hindsight.

I guess we should blame Brez for now knowing Houck was ready to pull a Gio, despite being happily married. He should have seen the Crawford injury a mile away. He should have not counted on Buehler coming back from injuries, but instead known sale was going to. He should have known Priester would do better than Fitts over a small sample size.

We need a bonafide fortune teller for a GM, I guess.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

Giolito was actually better last year when he never pitched than this year with his 6.42 ERA and -0.5 WAR.  

That made me laugh saridinically (sardines are good for something).

So when Gio was a zero, he was worth more than when he actually pitched and had less value than a guy Ramon Vazquez picked up off the street with the team bus when driving Raffy's glove -- which he took by mistake -- back to the team hotel.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

On 6/7/2025 at 12:14 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

This is kind of a confusing discussion.

You're basically asking "what matters?"  

Some people of course believe nothing matters at all.

I consider a 20 point difference in batting average meaningful, but only if it translates to say 40 points higher in OPS.  As I said, BA in isolation doesn't mean much.

Just an FYI.   BA + Isolated Power and Batting Average + Walk Rate comprise the stat known as OPS.

20 points in batting average ALWAYS translates to 40 points in OPS.  I'm guessing you mean OBP.

[notin]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

The excuse was that he had " marital problems ".  There is always an excuse on TalkSox. 

Except for Sale, who had 4 years of absence peppered with Steve Matz-type performance.  He was an obvious keeper clearly ready to tback the clock 5 full years

[TedYazPapiMookie]

On 6/6/2025 at 4:56 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

Depends how you look at it, I guess.  One is clearly better than the other, and small differences can be big in MLB.   There can be small differences between the guy who's good enough to play MLB and the guy who's not.

BA is not a great stat in isolation, of course.  I'd rather use OPS+ any day.

 

OPS+ double accounts for batting average then gets normalized against all other hitters.

SLG (BA+ISO) + OBP (BA+Walk Rate) = 2XBA + (ISO + SLG) thus the stat is BA biased.  So when you normalize the OPS to get the OPS+ all you've done is compared a BA biased stat across all players.  Does that really tell you anything of value?  The irony is many fans say what you said "Batting Average is not a great stat in isolation" so does it make much sense to double it and create a stat like OPS or OPS+?   Ironic isn't it!!!

Personally, I like BA+ISO+WalkRate and the ONLY three components of hitting that should be added together to evaluate a player.  But that's just me.  I argued for the stat back when OPS first was invented as being biased but guys like Bill James approved of it.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Just an FYI.   BA + Isolated Power and Batting Average + Walk Rate comprise the stat known as OPS.

You crack me up.

OPS= OBP+SLG

Yes, hits are counted twice (OBP & SLG), while walks once (OBP only.) XBHs as compared to just hits are just counted once, as well (in SLG not OBP.)

[dgalehouse]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Except for Sale, who had 4 years of absence peppered with Steve Matz-type performance.  He was an obvious keeper clearly ready to tback the clock 5 full years

Scoreboard. 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Just an FYI.   BA + Isolated Power and Batting Average + Walk Rate comprise the stat known as OPS.

Judge: 

.390 BA

.356 ISO

.152 BB Rate

.900 OPS

His OPS is actually 1.233

 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Scoreboard. 

Yes, scoreboard from 2019-2023 counts, too.

[dgalehouse]

OPS is a fabricated stat, figured by adding two real stats together. It has value in evaluating a hitter. The problem with it is the fact that some things are credited twice , plus it assumes that on base and slugging percentages have exactly equal value. Predictably, we now have OPS+. . Soon it will be OPS - and xOPS and so forth. The stat folks can never have enough stats to satisfy their hunger. 

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Gio offered hope? He had become a HR Derby pitcher.🤭🙈

I think Kansas City would be perfect for giolita. 

[notin]

58 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Just an FYI.   BA + Isolated Power and Batting Average + Walk Rate comprise the stat known as OPS.

20 points in batting average ALWAYS translates to 40 points in OPS.  I'm guessing you mean OBP.

Actually not true.

OBP isnt simply BA plus walk rate.  That does work as an approximation, but HBP and sacrifice flies will affect it…

[notin]

52 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Judge: 

.390 BA

.356 ISO

.152 BB Rate

.900 OPS

His OPS is actually 1.233

 

.390 + .152 =0.542 

.390 + .356 =0.746 

.542 + .746 =1.288
 

A bit off for reasons I cited.  But two important facts.

1. TYPM did count BA twice in his formula.  You missed that, and

2.  I just learned if you type a math equation into this applet, it does the math. At least for addition..

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

.390 + .152 =0.542 

.390 + .356 =0.746 

.542 + .746 =1.288
 

A bit off for reasons I cited.  But two important facts.

1. TYPM did count BA twice in his formula.  You missed that, and

2.  I just learned if you type a math equation into this applet, it does the math. At least for addition..

Thanks for the correction.

One flaw in OPS is that one uses PAs and the other ABs, and yes HBP and Sacs are treated differently.

A single is counted in OBP and SLG, but a walk counts only in OBP. It is likely that a BB is worth more than half of a single.

[Larry Cook]

It took a while, but Campbell and story are starting to swing the bat better!!!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

It took a while, but Campbell and story are starting to swing the bat better!!!

Adjustments sometimes take longer than we hope. Let's hope this is his last (long) adjustment.

I'm liking how Story is looking, too.

I'm not sure Toro & Romy can keep this up, but BAM, the Casas injury and big drama on 1B depth seems like a big beef that turned into a tiny morsel of impossible meat. 

We gotta get our pitching healthy and in comfortable roles. Our 7-8th RP'ers have been a revolving door. I worried about needing to "cycle through" too much or our deep but mediocre pitching depth to find the 8 RP'ers we needed. We've seen the same faces, up and down, too often, already.

I'm not sure we can make to the deadline, and if we do, we gotta do better than Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims. 

I know we need a solid SP'er, too, but I fear we will just have to run with what we have, and once again, hope on an injured starter to return and return in form. That broken record needs to disposed of, but it is what it is.

[Old Red]

I said before the Yankees series started it wouldn’t surprise me if the Red Sox took 2-3, so no surprise they did. Story Land had a good weekend for the team, and for us few supporters he has. Great to see KC hit too. The new Johnny Bench continues to impress, and like Cora has said 1B looks solid. Toro, Toro, Toro. Good weekend overall.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Most Errors Red Sox Regulars:

5 Duran, Abreu, Bregman, Story, Campbell

4 Brennan Bernardino

3 Rafaela, Narvaez, Hamilton, Toro, Gonzalez

... the outfield isn't usually as pivotal as infielders not turning double plays, but last night's muff by Anthony shows the difference -- when an infielder misses a grounder, the batter reaches base; when an outfielder misses a grounder, runners circle the bases.

Boston's starting outfield was maybe slightly overrated early on as the greatest in Sox history... 13 Es in less than half a season by Duran-Rafaela-Abreu doesn't look so good compared to the 2018 season total of 11 for the trio of: Beni 4, JBJ 6, Mookie 1.

Or how about this 1977 Red Sox unit (when intact): Yaz 0, Lynn 2, Evans 1... the first two played all year, but Dewey missed about 100 games with injury, and was spelled by primary DH Rice, the erratic Carbo, and Rick Miller, another Gold Glover. 

 

[mvp 78]

Duran has been straight up bad in LF. He has massively regressed. I don't know what's going on there. 

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran has been straight up bad in LF. He has massively regressed. I don't know what's going on there. 

Not quite visions of the Butterfly Man, but I agree.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

Not quite visions of the Butterfly Man, but I agree.

He's like 2023 Duran, but more GB than LD. Should have traded him at his peak value last offseason. 

[Old Red]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

He's like 2023 Duran, but more GB than LD. Should have traded him at his peak value last offseason. 

That’s what I said last offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

On 6/8/2025 at 5:28 PM, moonslav59 said:

Yes, scoreboard from 2019-2023 counts, too.

Breslow's scoreboard only counts for 2024 forward.  

 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

These trade candidates have seen their stock start to soar

Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Red Sox

The veteran reliever has been superb for the Red Sox, who signed Chapman to a one-year, $10.75 million deal over the winter. He has successfully converted 11 of 12 save opportunities this season, posting a 1.65 ERA in 30 appearances. Over his past 15 outings, Chapman has a 1.29 ERA, striking out 17 batters over 14 innings. Boston showed signs of life over the weekend against the Yankees, but the Sox remain below .500 and could find themselves in the sellers’ market if they can’t turn things around during the next month.

[mvp 78]

Crochet is a ratings draw! 

[Larry Cook]

We got about 4 weeks of baseball until Bregman returns. 
Cora’s to do list.: 

1.) fix the rotation! We cannot keto getting buehlered day in and day out!!!!!!
2.) keep the batting lineup producing 8 plus runs a game!! 
3.) pray the rest of the bullpen’s arms do not fall off like Chapman and Bernardino’s did last night!!! 
4.) find a hole and bury Kelly in it!!!

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

We got about 4 weeks of baseball until Bregman returns. 
Cora’s to do list.: 

1.) fix the rotation! We cannot keto getting buehlered day in and day out!!!!!!
2.) keep the batting lineup producing 8 plus runs a game!! 
3.) pray the rest of the bullpen’s arms do not fall off like Chapman and Bernardino’s did last night!!! 
4.) find a hole and bury Kelly in it!!!

Cora can't fix the rotation with this roster. All he can do is move somebody out and replace them with internal options. 

He's stuck with Kelly because of the other injuries in the bullpen. Breslow doesn't scout the waiver wire the way Bloom did. Bloom would have churned through some other DFA'd guys by now for sure. It's the only reason Zack Littell even played here. 

[notin]

On 6/8/2025 at 7:22 PM, moonslav59 said:

Thanks for the correction.

One flaw in OPS is that one uses PAs and the other ABs, and yes HBP and Sacs are treated differently.

A single is counted in OBP and SLG, but a walk counts only in OBP. It is likely that a BB is worth more than half of a single.

We can question the values, but the real issue with OPS is the number is completely unquantifiable.

If you see a BA of .300, you know that translates to 3 hits every 10 at bats.  A SLG of .400 translates to 4 total bases every 10 at bats.  An OBP of .350 is 35 times on base for every 100 PA.  But what does an OPS of .900 translate to? It’s just a “bigger is better” stat…