A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[notin]

18 hours ago, Old Red said:

Putting DEMOTED as is is calling it as it is. Just like Masa was demoted to DH last year, which he probably didn’t like, but everyone is different, and might of handled things differently, or better. So what if Devers sees it as a demotion? Well if it affects his psyche, which affects his play, and I don’t know if it does, but that would be a BIG deal. Why Masa isn’t playing at Woo could be just some kind of paperwork manipulating I don’t know.

DH is a position not a demotion.   Is DH a greater demotion than moving him to 1b?  After all, a huge chunk of the league’s first baseman (including Casas) are players who started out playing other positions but were moved to first base because they could hit, but not field and 1b is the easiest position to field…

[Bellhorn04]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

DH is a position not a demotion.   Is DH a greater demotion than moving him to 1b?  After all, a huge chunk of the league’s first baseman (including Casas) are players who started out playing other positions but were moved to first base because they could hit, but not field and 1b is the easiest position to field…

Both are fielding demotions.  DH is the more radical version.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Both are fielding demotions.  DH is the more radical version.

Then well over 90% of the league has been “demoted” at some point, including every former high school shortstop (except for 30 of them, obviously) and every member of every bullpen ever (including former SP Mariano Rivera)…

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, jdc69 said:

Was that Bogearts you are talking about concerning Story? I stopped paying attention during Covid, I've just started paying attention again. I also remember they put Bogaerts on 3rd for awhile but he demanded SS, but I digress.

Yes a team should do whats best for the team and as I said Bregman is good for the team. At the same time, they aren't actual gears for some machine, loyalty is also good for a team and if you go too far without it you will lose your team. I'm more looking at how Devers goes to DH instead of 1st. I may be off base and Devers may want 3rd and nothing else but if that's not true, why is the more unproductive, unproven, more rookie player not at DH, Casas, instead of the player who has been your best player and wants to play on the field? That's how I agreed with your previous post, two posts ago. I'm saying they haven't done a good job at figuring out the Casas/Devers/Yoshida conundrum and agree they shouldve traded Casas in the off-season.

 

Yes, I was talking about Bogaerts, who was one of the worst defensive SSs by some metrics and near the middle with others. They bent the knee to him at Story's expense is a similar situation to the Devers to DH choice, except one was for the good of the team, while the other was for the good of Bogey's ego, I guess.

It's not an easy choice. I'm not writing off the effects these moves have on our players. I don't know how Bogey would have taken a moves to 2B, 3B or 1B, but he ended up bolting, anyway. Story seemed to take the move well and did a fine job at 2B, until injuries took over.

Personally, I do not think Devers is pouting or brooding, as some suggest or seem to suggest, but I do not know. The other unknown might be is whatever mind games the move of Devers caused, are they related to his poor start to 2025? He has had many poor starts to seasons, although most  have been just 10-20 games in length.

I've been advocating moving Devers off 3B for many seasons. I'm not sure why Bloom & Co. made that promise or how they actually worded it. I can see how it looks like a betrayal and fully understand how Devers might feel. That being said, this sort of thing happens, all the time, but usually later in a player's career. I will also say, I find it difficult to understand Devers thinking he is a good fielder, but I guess most pros think they are better than they really are, or else they may lose confidence in themselves. He really sucks on D, and it hurt the team, badly.

My idea about Devers playing 1B may never become a reality, for several reasons I won't get into, now. I wish they had steered him towards trying 1B out, long ago, but maybe the subject was just too tender to broach.

I'm also not sure how Casas would handle moving to DH FT or half time.

Our defense has not done much better, this year, despite some significant upgrades on paper. Bregman at 3B, Story at SS, Rafaela FT in CF and Duran FT in LF, plus the Narvaez addition. Maybe they will setlle down as the year goes on. They will need to. Our pitching staff cannot be asked to get 4-5 outs an inning, too many times.

[moonslav59]

I would think Yoshida playing in AAA and perhaps hitting well would make it easier to find a place for him (on another team.)

We've hashed this over all winter long, and now that it looks like Devers will DH just about every game, the only slot for Yoshida would be LF. While he is a better hitter than Rafaela, I don't think he's better than Refsnyder vs LHPs and likely not Anthony vs LHPs or RHPs, as both are LHBs. There  is also the chance CF might be the best slot for Campbell, especially if Mayer earns a promotion, anytime soon. (If Bregman bolts after 2025, there will be room for Mayer, Campbell & Story in the Sox infield.)

I don't see what waiting does, if Yoshida is not building back up his value, or at least showing other GMs he can hit (or throw, if they want him to play LF.) We dont have an immediate 40 man roster crunch, right now, and Yoshida has options, so in this sense, there is no rush, but still, what are we waiting for?

I have to think someone would take a healthy Yoshida at $2-6M a year. That's a hefty cost for us to pay for him to play somewhere else, but paying $12-16M a year is better than $18M a year. I can't see him cracking the Sox line-up, unless Devers or 1-2 OF'ers get hurt. I guess, if Bregman got hurt, we could play devers at 3B,a again and DH Yoshida or use a Yoshida-Ref platoon, if Anthony is called up.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Both are fielding demotions.  DH is the more radical version.

Bingo! George Scott was moved off 3B years ago to 1B, and was a great 1B, and the same with Youck, but neither Scott, or Youck were moved off 3B, because they wasn’t a good 3B. Raffy on the other hand sucked at 3B, which had been mentioned on here TMTC times.  Every change to a different position is not because a player is bad at the position he’s moved from, so every player that does is a different situation. Raffy is not a different situation. He sucked at 3B, and the Red Sox saw that DH was the only option for him, because he supposedly can still hit, but he’s sucking at DH too at the moment. I’m pretty positive that Raffy sees this as a demotion, which is most important.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Both are fielding demotions.  DH is the more radical version.

I think "radical" is not the word, I'd use, but when a player thinks he's good at defense and gets sent to DH, he does see it as a demotion. There is likely a wide range on how they handle it, and I'm not convinced the slow start by Devers is related to the "demotion."

To me, moving Devers to the 6th slot or lower would be equal or more "radical" than the DH move.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Bingo! George Scott was moved off 3B years ago to 1B, and was a great 1B, and the same with Youck, but neither Scott, or Youck were moved off 3B, because they wasn’t a good 3B. Raffy on the other hand sucked at 3B, which had been mentioned on here TMTC times.  Every change to a different position is not because a player is bad at the position he’s moved from, so every player that does is a different situation. Raffy is not a different situation. He sucked at 3B, and the Red Sox saw that DH was the only option for him, because he supposedly can still hit, but he’s sucking at DH too at the moment. I’m pretty positive that Raffy sees this as a demotion, which is most important.

Youk was way better at 3B than Devers is.

I remember the Yaz from LF to 1B move, too. He did pretty well at 1B. I don't remember any pouting or brooding, and I'm not convinced Devers is pouting or that this move is why he is off to a longer than normal slow start to a season,

[notin]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I was talking about Bogaerts, who was one of the worst defensive SSs by some metrics and near the middle with others. They bent the knee to him at Story's expense is a similar situation to the Devers to DH choice, except one was for the good of the team, while the other was for the good of Bogey's ego, I guess.

It's not an easy choice. I'm not writing off the effects these moves have on our players. I don't know how Bogey would have taken a moves to 2B, 3B or 1B, but he ended up bolting, anyway. Story seemed to take the move well and did a fine job at 2B, until injuries took over.

Personally, I do not think Devers is pouting or brooding, as some suggest or seem to suggest, but I do not know. The other unknown might be is whatever mind games the move of Devers caused, are they related to his poor start to 2025? He has had many poor starts to seasons, although most  have been just 10-20 games in length.

I've been advocating moving Devers off 3B for many seasons. I'm not sure why Bloom & Co. made that promise or how they actually worded it. I can see how it looks like a betrayal and fully understand how Devers might feel. That being said, this sort of thing happens, all the time, but usually later in a player's career. I will also say, I find it difficult to understand Devers thinking he is a good fielder, but I guess most pros think they are better than they really are, or else they may lose confidence in themselves. He really sucks on D, and it hurt the team, badly.

My idea about Devers playing 1B may never become a reality, for several reasons I won't get into, now. I wish they had steered him towards trying 1B out, long ago, but maybe the subject was just too tender to broach.

I'm also not sure how Casas would handle moving to DH FT or half time.

Our defense has not done much better, this year, despite some significant upgrades on paper. Bregman at 3B, Story at SS, Rafaela FT in CF and Duran FT in LF, plus the Narvaez addition. Maybe they will setlle down as the year goes on. They will need to. Our pitching staff cannot be asked to get 4-5 outs an inning, too many times.

The Sox are currently 9th in DRS and 22nd in OAA, up from 25th in DRS and 26th in OAA last year.

Don’t confuse “improved” with “perfect”…

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox are currently 9th in DRS and 22nd in OAA, up from 25th in DRS and 26th in OAA last year.

Don’t confuse “improved” with “perfect”…

I never expected top 8 to 10. I figured maybe they'd  improve from 27th to 30th in 2024 to around 14th to 16th, maybe a little better, if Story could stay healthy and REF/Yoshida played little to no OF. The 2B position was in question, although I viewed a DHam-Romy platoon, had that been the choice, as an upgrade over EValdez/Reyes/Grissom/Westbrook.

I am losing faith in DRS. I think OAA is closer to what I think is right, but I guess 14th to 16th is about in the middle of 9 and 22. I just don't think we've shown even 14-16, so far, but we can.

Story's arm is concerning. Bregman has not looked like the guy I've seen, here in HOU. Duran looks worse than 2024- Rafaela better.

[notin]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Youk was way better at 3B than Devers is.

I remember the Yaz from LF to 1B move, too. He did pretty well at 1B. I don't remember any pouting or brooding, and I'm not convinced Devers is pouting or that this move is why he is off to a longer than normal slow start to a season,

I have no idea how players feel about DH.  I can see some not liking for various reasons, and others embracing it for various reasons.

Some (many?) fans, on the other hand, seem to view the DH a bit differently.  On this site and multiple others, it seems like a lot of fans think the DH is for “resting players”.  Even saw one fan question Boston moving Devers to DH by asking “does Boston realize teams don’t have full time DHs any more?”  Huh? What non-losing team doesn’t?  Thinking the DH is for resting players is like thinking the closer role is for resting starters.

DH is a position.  They play every day.  Yes it’s not for every player. What position is?

[Old Red]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Youk was way better at 3B than Devers is.

I remember the Yaz from LF to 1B move, too. He did pretty well at 1B. I don't remember any pouting or brooding, and I'm not convinced Devers is pouting or that this move is why he is off to a longer than normal slow start to a season,

My point being that not every move, or a change of position is, because someone sucks at what they are doing like the situation with Raffy. I haven’t said Raffy is pouting,or that he’s not hitting, because of moving to DH, but it could be more of a WTF attitude.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, notin said:

I have no idea how players feel about DH.  I can see some not liking for various reasons, and others embracing it for various reasons.

Some (many?) fans, on the other hand, seem to view the DH a bit differently.  On this site and multiple others, it seems like a lot of fans think the DH is for “resting players”.  Even saw one fan question Boston moving Devers to DH by asking “does Boston realize teams don’t have full time DHs any more?”  Huh? What non-losing team doesn’t?  Thinking the DH is for resting players is like thinking the closer role is for resting starters.

DH is a position.  They play every day.  Yes it’s not for every player. What position is?

For Raffy it’s playing 3B.🤭

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, notin said:

I have no idea how players feel about DH.  I can see some not liking for various reasons, and others embracing it for various reasons.

Some (many?) fans, on the other hand, seem to view the DH a bit differently.  On this site and multiple others, it seems like a lot of fans think the DH is for “resting players”.  Even saw one fan question Boston moving Devers to DH by asking “does Boston realize teams don’t have full time DHs any more?”  Huh? What non-losing team doesn’t?  Thinking the DH is for resting players is like thinking the closer role is for resting starters.

DH is a position.  They play every day.  Yes it’s not for every player. What position is?

I think the Sox are backed into a corner, because Devers is so bad at 3B defense. My hope has always been, and yes, it is just a hope, as of now, that Devers can play 1B at least as well as Casas. This would at least allow both Casas and Devers enough time to "rest" as the half time DH and then maybe stay healthy for 160 games in the line-up, each. That's not ideal, either, but a GM and manager have to do what is best.

I'd love to see Refsnyder as the platoon DH, but that does not work. If Grissom and Romy keep hitting well, even as just platoon guys, one could see a role for them at DH, but no way can that happen in the current situation. Everyone sle is pretty good on D and would DH, in theory, only on "rest days." It does make sense to DH a guy 5-10 times a year rather than give them 3-6 full days off to get rest, but I don't think that fits our roster set-up. This doesn't even address the Yoshida issue.

Our roster is pretty flexible in many areas, but having Devers, Casas and Refsnyder as players where DH is their best fit is rather constrictive for Brez and Cora. Even trading Yoshida hardly makes a dent in our current roster construction.

Really, none of this is on Brez, unless you count adding Bregman to force Devers to DH or not trading Casas over the winter as adding to the problem, I can see the thinking there, but I really had a lot of faith in the bat of Casas and the glove of Bregman. I know the two forced Yoshida to be an $18M bench or AAA player, but it made the 13 man everyday roster much better. We could have tried to swap a LHB OF'er for a RHB one, but with Anthony on the doorstep, and his decent splits history, I can see why we decided to keep Duran & Abreu around.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

My point being that not every move, or a change of position is, because someone sucks at what they are doing like the situation with Raffy. I haven’t said Raffy is pouting,or that he’s not hitting, because of moving to DH, but it could be more of a WTF attitude.

I'm not sure if there is much difference between pouting, brooding or a WTF attitude, and I know you have not said he's pouting or brooding as other have. I guess, I'm just not ready to concede his prolonged slow start is related to the move to DH. His injury and awful ending to 2024 further muddies the waters on identifying a reason that goes beyond it just being a slump. The move to DH very well might be a part of the problem. I just don't know.

Here are some of Devers' slow starts or poor early season stretches over his career, and this one seems like the longest:

 .657 in 27 games/121 PAs 2025

.623 in just an 11 game April stretch in 2024 (48 PAs)

.660 over 23 games/99 PAs in early '23 and part of a .753 in a 60 games stretch from April to June '23.

.651 stretch in April '22 (19 games/81 PAs)

.556 in 21 games and 88 PAs to start the 2020 season & .655 over 31 games/133 PAs including this last timeframe. This is actually worse than the 2025 start to a season. Longer and slightly worse.

.768 in 2019 stretch of 34 games and 136 PAs, which included a smaller .639 21 game slump of 78 PAs.

Seeing so many early season slumps in Devers' career makes me wonder, if this is anything out of line that needs some special explanation, such as the moves to DH or a continuing shoulder issue or both combined. Couldn't it just be a typical slow, early stretch?

How can we ever know?

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I never expected top 8 to 10. I figured maybe they'd  improve from 27th to 30th in 2024 to around 14th to 16th, maybe a little better, if Story could stay healthy and REF/Yoshida played little to no OF. The 2B position was in question, although I viewed a DHam-Romy platoon, had that been the choice, as an upgrade over EValdez/Reyes/Grissom/Westbrook.

I am losing faith in DRS. I think OAA is closer to what I think is right, but I guess 14th to 16th is about in the middle of 9 and 22. I just don't think we've shown even 14-16, so far, but we can.

Story's arm is concerning. Bregman has not looked like the guy I've seen, here in HOU. Duran looks worse than 2024- Rafaela better.

DRS is probably a better team measure, but OAA for the player…

[notin]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

For Raffy it’s playing 3B.🤭

So Raffy is every player now?

[moonslav59]

Here is a look at our positional rankings at about the 17% mark of the season:

wRC+

30th Catcher 42 (61 behind #15)

22nd 1B 62 (42 behind #15)

20th in CF at 76 (12 behind #15)

20th at DH at 87 (15 behind #15)

15th 2B at 104 (a vast improvement over 2024)

15th LF at 109 (much worse than 2024)

9th SS at 108 (7 behind #6 and way better than 2024)

5th in RFat 160 (before Abreu's HR, today.)

1st at 3B at 172 (Bregman is usually a slow starter.)

Defense OAA, except catcher:

29th LF -4 (27th DRA-4) Big drop from '24

22nd SS -1 (10th DRA +1)

20th 2B -1 (14th DRS -1)

18th 1B -1 (30th in DRS -3)

17th 3B -2 (10th DRS +2) Big plus from 2024

5th CF +4 (3rd DRS +4)

T3rd Catcher (fangraphs defensive ranking at +4.6)

2nd RF +2 (1st DRS +8)

Overall 1B has been our weakest slot in both areas combined.

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe sportswriters are getting confused now that the Rookie of the Year gets credited with a year of service time. But there are no specifics for Rookie of the Year eligibility except having rookie eligibility. From MLB.com:

"A player shall be considered a rookie unless he has exceeded any of the following thresholds in a previous season (or seasons):

• 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues.
• 45 total days on an active Major League roster during the Championship Season (excluding time on the Injured List).

A player must have rookie eligibility to be considered for any MLB rookie awards -- such as the American League or National League Rookie of the Year Award -- or appear on any MLB Pipeline prospect lists."

This kind of reminds me of when Manny was traded to LA in '08, went off for two months, and finished 4th in NL MVP. He only played 53 games for the Dodgers. That same summer CC Sabathia was traded to Milwaukee. He started 17 games for the Brewers and finished 5th in NL Cy Young and 6th in MVP.

Yeah, I went to same site looking for clarification and came across the same quotes. 

That would normally be enough for me, but the person behind Stats on twitter is usually very much across this stuff, so the insistence on 60 games is odd. They're clearly quite sure they're right, which is throwing me. If I still had my account I'd ask them the question.

I do think if there's anywhere near truth in this, out lot will forsake this year for another year of the lads primes further down the road, rightly or wrongly.

[Hitch]

The Devers thing for me is not that he's possibly pouting about being put as DH but that it takes a completely different mindset. To go from constantly engaged for 3 hous to watching most of the time is some adjustment. Even Ortiz got to play 1B in NL parks a fair bit.

Just sitting around ruminating over a bad at bat must be tough!

[notin]

31 minutes ago, Hitch said:

The Devers thing for me is not that he's possibly pouting about being put as DH but that it takes a completely different mindset. To go from constantly engaged for 3 hous to watching most of the time is some adjustment. Even Ortiz got to play 1B in NL parks a fair bit.

Just sitting around ruminating over a bad at bat must be tough!

Better to ruminate in the dugout than on the field…

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Hitch said:

The Devers thing for me is not that he's possibly pouting about being put as DH but that it takes a completely different mindset. To go from constantly engaged for 3 hous to watching most of the time is some adjustment. Even Ortiz got to play 1B in NL parks a fair bit.

Just sitting around ruminating over a bad at bat must be tough!

This certainly could be it or part of "it."

The guy has often slumped early in the year. He's leading the team in hard hit%, this year.

Could we be making a big deal out of next to nothing?

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Better to ruminate in the dugout than on the field…

Post of the month

[Hitch]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Better to ruminate in the dugout than on the field…

I think you could be massively underpaying what a change this is.

Of course, it might have no bearing on anything at all. But it certainly wouldn't surprise me to learn it does.

[Hitch]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This certainly could be it or part of "it."

The guy has often slumped early in the year. He's leading the team in hard hit%, this year.

Could we be making a big deal out of next to nothing?

We absolutely could. 

[oldtimer]

5 hours ago, Old Red said:

My point being that not every move, or a change of position is, because someone sucks at what they are doing like the situation with Raffy. I haven’t said Raffy is pouting,or that he’s not hitting, because of moving to DH, but it could be more of a WTF attitude.

I perceive Raffy as a gifted but somewhat undisciplined hitter who has never been a good fielding third baseman. As he ages, some of his hitting gifts may diminish and you're left with a less gifted undisciplined hitter. I'm leaning to that take on his performance, not pouting. 

How many games does Boston have to lose before they look to a spark from their prospects?

 

[moonslav59]

Before going 3 for his first 6 ABs, today with an HR, Devers led the team in Hard Hit%, and it's not really close.

45.3 Devers

37.7 Abreu

36.2 Story

34.9 Story

29.9 Duran

I'm fine with a great batter being a little "undisciplined," and I think it helps a line-up to have varying approaches.

 

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox OPS:

.961 Bregman

.901 Abreu

.837 Campbell

(RHB Platoons: .872 Refsnyder and .825 Romy)

.755 Story

.722 Devers

.704 Duran

.622 Narvaez

.583 Casas

.582 Rafaela

.292 DHam

(Catchers: .355 Sabol/ .279 Wong.

[moonslav59]

SP ERA Leaders

1.95 Crochet

2.45 Dobbins

3.18 Fitts

4.28 Buehler

4.43 Newcomb

7.58 Houck

(Bello 1.80 in 1 GS)

WHIP RP'er

0.90 Bernardino

1.02 Whitlock

1.06 Chapman

1.22 Weissert

1.37 Winckowski

1.40 Kelly

1.50 Wilson

[Bellhorn04]

20 hours ago, notin said:

I have no idea how players feel about DH.  I can see some not liking for various reasons, and others embracing it for various reasons.

Some (many?) fans, on the other hand, seem to view the DH a bit differently.  On this site and multiple others, it seems like a lot of fans think the DH is for “resting players”.  Even saw one fan question Boston moving Devers to DH by asking “does Boston realize teams don’t have full time DHs any more?”  Huh? What non-losing team doesn’t?  Thinking the DH is for resting players is like thinking the closer role is for resting starters.

DH is a position.  They play every day.  Yes it’s not for every player. What position is?

I absolutely agree that DH should be manned full-time by a good hitter, not used to rest guys.

The Red Sox problem is having a surplus of guys-Devers, Yoshida and Casas-whose best position is DH.