A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, I know there's much sense in what you're saying.  I'm just appalled at how this team has suddenly come to be so K-happy.  

Suddenly?

Umm, weren't they 3rd in strikeouts as a team last season?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nobody takes a troll seriously.  

Just as nobody takes a fan boy seriously.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Suddenly?

Umm, weren't they 3rd in strikeouts as a team last season?

Yes. I was including last year.  I didn't just start talking about this.  But you wouldn't know that since you only re-emerged recently.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not recently.  

I've certainly said I hated the Dillon Lawson hiring.

You also inferred that they should fire OB and Tessie, which is fair. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Just as nobody takes a fan boy seriously.

Relax bruh. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes. I was including last year.  I didn't just start talking about this.  But you wouldn't know that since you only re-emerged recently.

I've been a member since Feb of last year.

Try again.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Relax bruh. 

I am relaxed.

Enjoying my coffee on my front porch in 80 degree weather.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

As one poster pointed out above, many of these players whiffed a lot long before these were their hitting coaches.

So, yes, it was a fan boy reaction.

Right. Fans shouldn't expect Red Sox hitting coaches to help their batters make as much contact as the Blue Jays do, in Boston, on a night when they're all frozen popsicles. 

Fans should expect the Sox to strike out 14 times vs. 4 for last year's division doormat, score 4 runs in three games, and never lead once in the series at Fenway.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What I really think is that we need a better way to measure an offense's performance, one that looks at it on a game by game basis. 

While consistency is a virtue and likely wins more games than streaky bats, but I'm not so sure it makes a big difference.

We've scored more than 4 runs 6 times (5-1)

We've scored 4 runs 0 times (0-0)

We've score under 4 runs 7 times (1-6)

Another view:

1-5 runs scored: 3-7

6-18 runs: 3-0

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Right. Fans shouldn't expect Red Sox hitting coaches to help their batters make as much contact as the Blue Jays do, in Boston, on a night when they're all frozen popsicles. 

Fans should expect the Sox to strike out 14 times vs. 4 for last year's division doormat, score 4 runs in three games, and never lead once in the series at Fenway.

I would expect that the coaches would have more of an impact on younger players.

Guys like story have been in the league for a long time and probably aren't going to change all that much.

[notin]

21 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Right. Fans shouldn't expect Red Sox hitting coaches to help their batters make as much contact as the Blue Jays do, in Boston, on a night when they're all frozen popsicles. 

Fans should expect the Sox to strike out 14 times vs. 4 for last year's division doormat, score 4 runs in three games, and never lead once in the series at Fenway.

But the point of blaming a new hitting coach like Lawson for problems that existed before his hiring is certainly questionable.

Certainly Lawson hasn’t implemented any quick fixes except on Rafaela (assuming it was him).  But stopping aggressive hitters from being aggressive rarely works.  
 

High strikeouts are often paired with good power.  So is the problem too many K’s?  Or a lack of power?  “Both” isnt the answer, and to me suggests it’s the lower power output…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

But the point of blaming a new hitting coach like Lawson for problems that existed before his hiring is certainly questionable.

Certainly Lawson hasn’t implemented any quick fixes except on Rafaela (assuming it was him).  But stopping aggressive hitters from being aggressive rarely works.  
 

High strikeouts are often paired with good power.  So is the problem too many K’s?  Or a lack of power?  “Both” isnt the answer, and to me suggests it’s the lower power output…

I know nothing about Lawson, except he was fired by a team that always hits for power, with Aaron the Giant and a joke porch in rightfield.

And with great power comes great whiff ability.

But maybe -- and this are just speculations of one discerning old man -- maybe it's harder to launch longballs swinging at pitches that bounce into the opposite batter's box, a foot or more beyond the end of the longest torpedo bat, pole vault stick or telephone pole.

 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I know nothing about Lawson, except he was fired by a team that always hits for power, with Aaron the Giant and a joke porch in rightfield.

And with great power comes great whiff ability.

But maybe -- and this are just speculations of one discerning old man -- maybe it's harder to launch longballs swinging at pitches that bounce into the opposite batter's box, a foot or more beyond the end of the longest torpedo bat, pole vault stick or telephone pole.

 

2024:

NYY 22nd k %, 1st HR

BOS 3rd k %, 9th HR

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2024:

NYY 22nd k %, 1st HR

BOS 3rd k %, 9th HR

Lol, that was a swing and a miss on 5gloves behalf!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2024:

NYY 22nd k %, 1st HR

BOS 3rd k %, 9th HR

Great stats. They can mean a couple of other things not mentioned:

1. the team hitting the most pitches really far isn't missing them, and

2... what we've all known since Little League or even school recess: those who swing and miss the most kinda sorta aren't as good as those who don't.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

I've been a member since Feb of last year.

Try again.

We know very well who you are, dude. 

[moonslav59]

You cant hit a tater, if you don't swing.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

You cant hit a tater, if you don't swing.

"Swing hard in case you hit it!"

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Lol, that was a swing and a miss on 5gloves behalf!

I know -- it's like Judge's 162-game average over the past decade isn't 197 per year.

In Luis Arraez's seven-year career he  has 195 strikeouts -- total.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

"Swing hard in case you hit it!"

That's basically it in a nutshell. Launch angle of bat matters, too.

[Bellhorn04]

It can be a mystifying game.  We scored 36 runs in 3 against the Cards and have scored 4 in 3 against the Jays.

[mvp 78]

47 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Great stats. They can mean a couple of other things not mentioned:

1. the team hitting the most pitches really far isn't missing them, and

2... what we've all known since Little League or even school recess: those who swing and miss the most kinda sorta aren't as good as those who don't.

Last year, all the teams that were top 9 in wRC+ all had lower than average k rates. 

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It can be a mystifying game.  We scored 36 runs in 3 against the Cards and have scored 4 in 3 against the Jays.

People got way too excited after that STL series for sure. 

[mvp 78]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You cant hit a tater, if you don't swing.

Is that why Casas watches so many called third strikes? 

[Old Red]

28 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It can be a mystifying game.  We scored 36 runs in 3 against the Cards and have scored 4 in 3 against the Jays.

Are we giving them any kind of break for the cold temps, and good Toronto pitching?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We know very well who you are, dude. 

Well, then you would know that I've been around since last season, dude.

[moonslav59]

Some early team splits:

.731 v RHPs  (.754 when RH'er starts)

.713 v LHPs (.574 when LH'er starts)

.785 H/ .674 A

.927 first pitch

.746 RISP (.742 w 2 outs) & .864 Men On Base

.548 Late & Close (.481 High Leverage)

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Are we giving them any kind of break for the cold temps, and good Toronto pitching?

Gausman is a good pitcher for sure. Sox also do need to cut down the k's. Both can be true. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I know nothing about Lawson, except he was fired by a team that always hits for power, with Aaron the Giant and a joke porch in rightfield.

And with great power comes great whiff ability.

But maybe -- and this are just speculations of one discerning old man -- maybe it's harder to launch longballs swinging at pitches that bounce into the opposite batter's box, a foot or more beyond the end of the longest torpedo bat, pole vault stick or telephone pole.

 

I agree it’s harder to put a pitch that drills the mascot into orbit, but I do have my doubts that the lessons implemented by Fatse and Lawson say “above all, just swing. Swing hard.  Swing fast.  Swing at everything, including balls the catcher throws back to the pitcher.”

Some of this is on the hitters…

[notin]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is that why Casas watches so many called third strikes? 

It’s frustrating at times, but thats also the hitter Casas has been since his MLB debut.  Probably was in the minors as well, but I never saw him play there…