Who should start at second base on opening day?

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Since de Grom is probably TEX Opening Day starter, I think the 2b will be Hamilton. I don't think he'll be the permanent 2b for '25, but he'll get most of the reps early on and that's fine. 

Texas has already announced that Evol will be the opening day starter, but grudgingly agree on Hamilton. Don’t like platoons, and DHam is just the best of the worst if ST stats mean anything.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

Texas has already announced that Evol will be the opening day starter, but grudgingly agree on Hamilton. Don’t like platoons, and DHam is just the best of the worst if ST stats mean anything.

Well, he's a RHP too so my choice hasn't changed 

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Since de Grom is probably TEX Opening Day starter, I think the 2b will be Hamilton. I don't think he'll be the permanent 2b for '25, but he'll get most of the reps early on and that's fine. 

I agree, and if continues to do well vs LHPs, to start 2025, it mbe hard to replace him with a FT Campbell. (I suppose Campbell could play FT by playing 2B v LHPs and OF vs RHPs, but our OF is already loaded with LHBs who do well vs RHPs.)

[moonslav59]

 The 267 PA sample size vs LHPs in 2024 is pretty significant, Dham hit:

.256 with 7 HRs and 24 XBHs and 24 SBs. Over 650 PAs, that's about 15 HRs, 50 XBHs and SBs. That is a plus 2Bman in MLB. His defense at 2B was plus, too.

I'm not going to say he "deserves" another long look, but I'm not sure why some seem to be so down on him, as a platoon 2Bman.

Romy absolutely killed LHPs in 2024, and was second to Ref as our best batter vs lefties. We don't kno, if that is repeatable, and his defense at 2B was questionable, according to the numbers, but I feel the tow should be okay as a 2B platoon to open 2025. The ST'ing numbers point towards it working, at least for a while.

[Larry Cook]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Since de Grom is probably TEX Opening Day starter, I think the 2b will be Hamilton. I don't think he'll be the permanent 2b for '25, but he'll get most of the reps early on and that's fine. 

I thought eovaldi was named opening day starter. 
Hamilton, romy and sogard all deserve to be on the 26 in my opinion. 

[Cameron Tran]

22 hours ago, vegasbob said:

What exactly is accomplished by pushing Campbell into the position in March/April ?   To prove he is not ready on both aspects of hitting and fielding. 

Cedanne Rafaela is already being carried   due to his exceptional fielding but not his bat , and his upside.

Using " veteran" Hamilton to open the year and see where all of these guys are in late April would be the way to go, IMO. In the long run, David H. is most likely a utility/bench player.   But at least wait until the weather turns warm to get Campbell elevated to the starting nine.   If he does well in extended ST and then at Woo Sox , bring him up.  If he doesn't, then he would have done worse in Boston . 

I agree, Campbell needs a little more time in AAA, especially on the defensive side. Cora has talked alot about how Campbell needs to get up to speed with major league expectations at second

[Cameron Tran]

9 hours ago, Old Red said:

Texas has already announced that Evol will be the opening day starter, but grudgingly agree on Hamilton. Don’t like platoons, and DHam is just the best of the worst if ST stats mean anything.

Hamilton really hasn't been that bad this spring training. I'd take the .238/.360/.452 slash line out of my second basemen any day of the week. Especially if he's adding 30-40 steals and playing above average defense.

[Cameron Tran]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 The 267 PA sample size vs LHPs in 2024 is pretty significant, Dham hit:

.256 with 7 HRs and 24 XBHs and 24 SBs. Over 650 PAs, that's about 15 HRs, 50 XBHs and SBs. That is a plus 2Bman in MLB. His defense at 2B was plus, too.

I'm not going to say he "deserves" another long look, but I'm not sure why some seem to be so down on him, as a platoon 2Bman.

Romy absolutely killed LHPs in 2024, and was second to Ref as our best batter vs lefties. We don't kno, if that is repeatable, and his defense at 2B was questionable, according to the numbers, but I feel the tow should be okay as a 2B platoon to open 2025. The ST'ing numbers point towards it working, at least for a while.

i definitely think Hamilton deserves another look. Still only 27. Showed last year he can provide value with his legs and his glove, and he had a .791 OPS in August before getting hurt. He's streaky (.581 OPS in July) but if he can hover around the .700 - .750 range and give us around 120 games and 40 steals he could be an underrated X-factor for us

[Cameron Tran]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I thought eovaldi was named opening day starter. 
Hamilton, romy and sogard all deserve to be on the 26 in my opinion. 

so would your bench be Hamilton, Romy, Sogard, Refsnyder and Sabol/Narvaez?

[Cameron Tran]

On 3/16/2025 at 10:48 AM, notin said:

He’s not.

Youre overestimating him.  
 

Last year, he had a .697 OPS and a 92 OPS+, lower than Dominic Smith.  He’s did only have a .316 BABIP, which, with his speed, could be improved upon.  But while he had his moments, he also had long stretches of not hitting.  And his 25% K rate / 7% BB rate leaves lots of room for improvement.  Especially that BB rate, since it was usually double that in the minors.

 

He’s not useless.  But he is a role player….

Hamilton was getting hot before getting hurt. He had a .851 OPS in August and showing more power with a much higher pulled flyball % (22%). 6% below league average for outside zone swing rate. Cora loves his experience and athleticism. A full season he could reach 15ish homeruns. Add 30-40 steals and 4-5 OAA at second and you've got an above-average second basemen. Accumulated 2.6 WAR in just 96 games and 318 PA. Could easly break 3 in a full season. Only 12 second basemen had more than 3 WAR. If he gets hot, a 3.5 WAR season is not out of the question. That's a top 8 second basemen in the league. I know im optimistic and I know that the job should be Campbell's by the All-Star game, but Hamilton could be a real weapon for us this year, especially if he can provide defensive value in the outfield as well.   

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Cameron Tran said:

so would your bench be Hamilton, Romy, Sogard, Refsnyder and Sabol/Narvaez?

That's 5 players for 4 slots.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Cameron Tran said:

Hamilton was getting hot before getting hurt. He had a .851 OPS in August and showing more power with a much higher pulled flyball % (22%). 6% below league average for outside zone swing rate. Cora loves his experience and athleticism. A full season he could reach 15ish homeruns. Add 30-40 steals and 4-5 OAA at second and you've got an above-average second basemen. Accumulated 2.6 WAR in just 96 games and 318 PA. Could easly break 3 in a full season. Only 12 second basemen had more than 3 WAR. If he gets hot, a 3.5 WAR season is not out of the question. That's a top 8 second basemen in the league. I know im optimistic and I know that the job should be Campbell's by the All-Star game, but Hamilton could be a real weapon for us this year, especially if he can provide defensive value in the outfield as well.   

He did have a very nice stretch, but he's had some bad ones, too, and his minor league numbers have not been great, except the SBs.

.799 in AAA (489 PAs)

.739 in AA (681)

.773 in A+ (309)

.766 all levels in minors (1479)

I'd really like to see him get a good long look in 2025. That stretch in 2024 was very nice, and that included his 2B defense.

Hamilton in MLB

.513 first 93 PAs in MLB (2023 to 5/14/24)

.787  middle 165 PAs (5/15/24 to 7/7/24)

.613 last 102 PAs  (7/8/24 to 8/28/24)

His first 93 PAs plus his last 102 PAs (195 PAs) are a combined larger sample size than the middle 165 PAs.

I also really like Campbell. I'd love to see him make the opening day roster as our starting 2Bman.

It's a tough call, to me. I think we start the year w DHam and try and get Campbell that extra year of control. (That's not saying I agree.)

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I thought eovaldi was named opening day starter. 
Hamilton, romy and sogard all deserve to be on the 26 in my opinion. 

I'd pass on Sogard. He had a HUGE Spring Training last season too. 

24 1045 OPS (did not carry over to AAA in March and April!)

25 830 OPS

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, Cameron Tran said:

I agree, Campbell needs a little more time in AAA, especially on the defensive side. Cora has talked alot about how Campbell needs to get up to speed with major league expectations at second

Then they shouldn't have thrown him out in LF for a few weeks this spring. 🫠

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Then they shouldn't have thrown him out in LF for a few weeks this spring. 🫠

They were juggling a lot of balls with 3 guys trying out for 2B.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They were juggling a lot of balls with 3 guys trying out for 2B.

Not sure Hamilton needed any time there. We already know what he can do (and it's good for 2b). I'm just saying they can't complain he's behind after sending him out to LF. 

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Then they shouldn't have thrown him out in LF for a few weeks this spring. 🫠

Exactly. It doesn’t do any of the young guys any good to bounce them around. They should have figured out by now if KC is going to be a 2B, or an OF. 2B has been more than a need since Petey left. It would be good IMO to have someone there FT instead of a revolving door, or any kind of platoon. Bouncing around should be for the Romy’s of the world, and not FT players.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Exactly. It doesn’t do any of the young guys any good to bounce them around. They should have figured out by now if KC is going to be a 2B, or an OF. 2B has been more than a need since Petey left. It would be good IMO to have someone there FT instead of a revolving door, or any kind of platoon. Bouncing around should be for the Romy’s of the world, and not FT players.

But there's a scenario in which Mayer is ready before Campbell.  Then you've got Mayer and Story covering the middle infield and Campbell is blocked.   

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But there's a scenario in which Mayer is ready before Campbell.  Then you've got Mayer and Story covering the middle infield and Campbell is blocked.   

When you’ve got to many FT players then it will be time to trade someone for pitching. When Mayer is ready I’m not going to worry what happens with Story.

[moonslav59]

14 hours ago, Cameron Tran said:

   

With Story's health issues, we should not trade a middle IF'er names Story, Mayer, Campbell or DHam... probably Romy, too. With Grissom's stock being so low, I would not trade him, now, either.

Let's get our middle IF set, before we start trading off any extras.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Story bounced another throw to first for another error yesterday. Middlebrooks blamed it on a case of Trevor "having too much time." 

Earlier, batting in the heart of the order with one-out and a man on third, Story struck out on a big looping curveball in the dirt. That runner never crossed the plate.

Later, Bregman shortened up with two outs and two strikes to dump an RBI-single into center. Middlebrooks noted how important it is to finally have a guy in the batting order who can make contact and not strike out.

[mvp 78]

47 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But there's a scenario in which Mayer is ready before Campbell.  Then you've got Mayer and Story covering the middle infield and Campbell is blocked.   

Mayer has 0 AB's in AAA. Mayer ended last season injured (and the year before). He has a lot of catching up to do. 

I also think Mayer is a better 3b than 2b option. Unless moving Story to 2b? 

[Larry Cook]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer has 0 AB's in AAA. Mayer ended last season injured (and the year before). He has a lot of catching up to do. 

I also think Mayer is a better 3b than 2b option. Unless moving Story to 2b? 

I think story needs to own 2B sooner rather than later. We finally moved the dumpster fire off of 3B. We do not need a new dumpster fire at SS. 
Mayer is coming soon, his defense at SS is not bad. Hopefully by June, Mayer forces us to promote him. In a perfect world he earns the promotion and there are no injuries 

[Bellhorn04]

So Story is a crappy shortstop all of a sudden? 🙃

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

When you’ve got to many FT players then it will be time to trade someone for pitching. When Mayer is ready I’m not going to worry what happens with Story.

If Story comes out rakin' and pickin' we'll see how the narrative goes. 😀

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If Story comes out rakin' and pickin' we'll see how the narrative goes. 😀

Mayer is not ready now anyway. If KC becomes the FT 2B he’s the FT 2B, and there is no need to move him. Bregman May only stick around for 1 year, and then Mayer could play SS, and Story could move to 3B. Story has to stay healthy is the biggest thing he has to do.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If Story comes out rakin' and pickin' we'll see how the narrative goes. 😀

Great guy, great teammate, great leader, but maybe overrated as the combined savior in the middle infield and middle of the batting order.

We know he was as a Silver Slugger shortstop in Colorado, but his last good season was half a decade ago. Obviously, the Sox will improve if Story stays healthy enough to contribute some power and speed on offense, and range at short, but it may be unfair to expect any more All-Star seasons at this point. 

It's not his fault someone gave him a big contract. But his K-rate has been over 30% in all three of his Boston years, and his throwing arm will never be better than it is right now (there's no way a human can strengthen an artificial brace inserted in his elbow).

[Old Red]

16 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Great guy, great teammate, great leader, but maybe overrated as the combined savior in the middle infield and middle of the batting order.

We know he was as a Silver Slugger shortstop in Colorado, but his last good season was half a decade ago. Obviously, the Sox will improve if Story stays healthy enough to contribute some power and speed on offense, and range at short, but it may be unfair to expect any more All-Star seasons at this point. 

It's not his fault someone gave him a big contract. But his K-rate has been over 30% in all three of his Boston years, and his throwing arm will never be better than it is right now (there's no way a human can strengthen an artificial brace inserted in his elbow).

I’ve said before that Story left his Colorado bat in Colorado, and I don’t know if he’s the SS he was once either.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’ve said before that Story left his Colorado bat in Colorado, and I don’t know if he’s the SS he was once either.

Maybe Story can be a star again at 2B (this is the second base thread).

That doesn't mean Mayer will lead them to the promised land as a rookie SS, either. The Big Three will experience growing pains... and have their share of Ks, too, as they adjust.

It is worth noting that when all the Sox top prospects were promoted from Double A last summer, it was Mayer who was leading the Eastern League in batting average.

I'm definitely looking forward to seeing progress in '25, just not making Boston any World Series favorite quite yet.

[moonslav59]

Story should still be a plus defender at SS for a few more years, even if his arm is weakening or getting less accurate. I'm not sure Mayer is a better defender, now, and until he is, I'm keeping Story at SS, when healthy, and assuming he's not falling apart.

I think Mayer could be a decent SS, now, and maybe would be better at 3B than 2B, but he should be fine at either, when that time comes. Campbell looks like he should be our 2Bman, but he may end up in the OF, but that choice is for later on, once we see how Story looks, and who looks ready first: Campbell or Mayer.

Bregman at 3B vs 2B is also a side issue, but I think we keep him at 3B for as long as he is with us.

If everyone is doing well and healthy, and the kids have proven they deserve a FT shot, the only way I see them all playing is with campbell in the OF, but that could be a long time coming, and everyone healthy is a big if.

Maybe this:

DH: Devers

C: Wong/Narvaez

1B: Casas

2B: Mayer

SS: Story

3B: Bregman

LF: Campbell

CF: Duran

RF: Abreu/Refsnyder or Anthony

Rafaela as the supersub

Others on bench: Yoshida and DHam